2026-26 FFPC Playoff Challenge Ownership Projections
The FFPC Playoff Contest is gloriously simple... until you sit down to actually make a lineup.
The rules are objectively straightforward.
Roster Requirements
You select one and only one player from each playoff team to fill out 14 spots, which looks like this:
- QB
- RB
- RB
- WR
- WR
- TE
- FLEX
- FLEX
- FLEX
- FLEX
- K
- DST
- FADE
- FADE
The "FADE" position doesn't actually exist on the FFPC site. You simply don't select anything from two of the 14 playoff teams. But I think it's important to realize that you are actively choosing to fade those two teams. That choice is part of your lineup build.
Scoring
FFPC scoring rules apply here, which means full PPR and 1.5 PPR for tight ends.
The Super Bowl round also comes with a 2x multiplier. This makes bye week players more palatable, given their improved odds of 2x scoring in the Super Bowl.
Field Size and Entry Fee
There are two versions of this contest:
- $200 entry
- 7,250 entry field size
- $500,000 up top
- $35 entry
- 16,000 entry field size
- $100,000 up top
Linuep Building
And that's it. It's a very simple contest. But there's beauty in the simplicity.
This is a contest where this lineup is available to anyone who wants it:
- QB - Drake Maye
- RB - Christian McCaffrey
- RB - James Cook
- WR - Puka Nacua
- WR - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- TE - Colston Loveland
- FLEX - Saquon Barkley
- FLEX - Josh Jacobs
- FLEX - Travis Etienne
- FLEX - Courtland Sutton
- K - Cameron Dicker
- DST - Texans Defense
- FADE - Steelers
- FADE - Panthers
But should you actually play this lineup?
No, you should not.
First, this lineup contains a double fade of the Texans/Steelers game. At best, in Round 2, the roster will have the Texans defense in a Houston win, leaving it with one less skill player than many competitors. At worst, it won't have a Steeler in a Pittsburgh win.
That double fade allows this roster to jam in the comfiest plays on every team... but doing that for every NFL team is also a problem.
Let's zoom out for a second. The $200 tournament has tournament has 7,250 entries with the following payout structure:
This payout structure is extremely top-heavy, with first place being over 71x the 10th-place prize. There's no point in playing this contest unless you're gunning for a solo first-place finish.
Historically, we've seen a lot of dupes in this contest. Per Fantasy Mojo, back in 2022-23, the most popular roster was entered... 100 times.
100 times!
The second most popular roster was entered... 99 times.
This lineup had just one pivot off the chalkiest roster, opting to play Chris Godwin and the Jaguars defense instead of Travis Etienne and the Buccaneers defense.
And these two lineups weren't the only major chalk. 32 different rosters were entered at least 10 times, with these rosters combining for an absurd 761 entries. Meaning... nearly 10% of 2022-23's field was made up of rosters entered at least 10 times.
Over the last two years, things have been less condensed—the field is getting sharper.
In 2023-24, the two most popular lineups were entered 11 times each.
Last year, the most popular lineup was entered 16 times. Two more rosters were entered 15 times. Three more rosters were entered 14 times each. Two rosters had 13 dupes. Another had 11.
Meanwhile, 2022-23's top six prizes were paid out to six different unique rosters. In 2021, the top 38 prizes all went to unique rosters. In 2023-24, the top 39 prizes all went to unique lineups. Last year, all 10 top prizes went to unique rosters.
It pays to get unique here.
This is why the simplicity of this contest is deceptive. If you play the best plays and log out, you're an absolute lock to chop the top prize, and you could be chopping with an egregious number of other contests.
At the same time... this is also not a contest where you need to get completely off the board. I expect high upside players like George Kittle, Davante Adams, AJ Brown, and TreVeyon Henderson to all come in at 20% or less. Devonta Smith will probably be sub 10%.
There's a middle ground here when you don't want to jam pure chalk, but you also don't want to create a parlay of low-projecting pivots.
In order to find this sweet spot... it's helpful to have good ownership projections.
I have you covered.
Below, you'll find a spreadsheet with my current projections for the field. This will be updated through Friday night as news shifts.
Ship Chasing Coverage
On Ship Chasing, we're also two nights into a four-night playoff week extravaganza. Check out the first two episodes here:
FFPC Playoff Challenge Primer & Boomer Opto Reveal
(The Boomer Opto is the most duped lineup in the contest).
FFPC Playoff Challenge - Pat's Ownership Projections
Playoff Alpha
We'll be back Thursday night with Drico and Sackreligious to further discuss the FFPC contest as well as dive into the playoff contests on DraftKings and Underdog.
Final Builds and Leverage Ideas
We're then closing out the week with Mike Leone and Drew Dinkmeyer in our final preparation before building rosters.
