Apex Hunting: Dynasty QB Buys with Legendary Upside
Mat Irby’s Apex Hunting Series
This offseason, I’ve taken a new spin on the typical buy/sell article you might see in most of the dynasty spaces out there; rather than a strict value argument, I’m basing the whole enchilada on upside. In other words, I’m basing my case on whether the player’s upside indicators are outpacing or lagging behind their market value, according to KeepTradeCut.
So far, we’ve had some pretty fun results, at least insofar as the market value has crept upward on some of my buy suggestions, or perhaps down on some of my sells.
There have been modest market shifts for Cam Skattebo, Bhayshul Tuten, Christian Watson, and Chase Brown, but many agree that circumstances have already improved for all four. Rashee Rice looked like a good call for a while until he didn't. A little over a week ago, when I started working on this article, I was prepared to brag about my big win in this space, but I guess it's an "L" for now. Meanwhile, Romeo Doubs’ value has dipped significantly amid rumors that New England may add A.J. Brown or return Stefon Diggs. Time will tell on the others; either way, it’s been fun, and I hope it has provided a unique insight into how I play the game.
If you’re not sure why I’m so into upside, here are a few articles of mine through the years that may clarify:
- Stop Playing it Safe: Why Apex Drafting is the Key to Fantasy Success
- The Apex Drafting Strategy: Draft Sharks, Not Guppies
- Apex Drafting: How to Approach Keepers
- The NBA is Teaching Us A Lesson We Should Apply to Our Dynasty Leagues
Based on this worldview, I believe in vacating the middle of the player pool, abandoning safety, and taking more shots at the top of the distribution at any position. This time of year provides a unique opportunity to trade on the perceived value of certain assets that may be headed for an inevitable low-ceiling/high-floor future, converting them into higher-upside bets. If we do this, trusting ourselves to fill in the cracks in real time, we can maximize our chances of winning.
This edition is all about QB targets. Remember, these suggestions are made based on current market valuations. If we stray too far from these valuations to make a transaction happen, we are losing the plot. If we can’t get a bite in our league at a fair cost, we shouldn’t force it. There will be other opportunities to make moves.
But if I could get a fair price, these are QBs I’d be trying to acquire.
Part 1 – QB Buys
JALEN HURTS (QB9)
If we play for upside, there is really no way that Jalen Hurts at QB9 shouldn’t be among the most aggressive buys across all positions in dynasty.
Lest we forget, Hurts finished in the top four in rushing yards among QBs for four straight years before a downturn in 2025. Only Lamar Jackson had more rushing yards during that same span from 2021 to 2024, and only one QB even came close to approaching Hurts’ 51 rushing TDs in that span: Josh Allen.
Hurts led the NFL in rushing expected points (rush EP) in each of his first four years as a starter, including a high bar of 140.1 rush EP in 2024. Hurts, Allen, and Lamar Jackson have been the premier rushing QBs in the NFL over the past five seasons. Last year, Hurts’ EP slipped to second, behind Allen for the first time.
Uncoincidentally, Hurts’ rushes inside the five-yard line slipped to an all-time low at 12, fewer than his previous low of 13 in 2021, his first year as a starter, and substantially fewer than his average of 18.3 in the three-year span from 2022 to 2024. Consequently, Hurts only scored eight rushing TDs in 2025, the fewest he’s had since his rookie season in 2020, when he served as Carson Wentz’s primary backup, well below his average of 12.75 per season from 2021 to 2024.
The first theory one might leap to is that the Eagles spent 2025 under one-and-done OC Kevin Patullo, and that there may have been a reduced utilization of the Tush Push. While it is technically true that Hurts saw a downturn in QB sneak attempts in 2025 relative to 2024, the reduction was by only 4 attempts, and 25 QB sneak attempts in 2025 still led the NFL by a wide margin (second was Allen, with 17). Granted, it may be worth noting that Hurts had 39 QB sneak attempts in 2023, believed to be an NFL record; however, 39 is more of an anomaly than a norm, bookended by 18 sneaks in 2022 and 29 in 2024.
Most of the issues stem from a generally less effective offense under Matullo in 2025. From 2021 to 2024, under Shane Steichen, Brian Johnson, and Kellen Moore, the Eagles ranked fourth in offensive EPA per play.
