Apex Hunting: Dynasty RB Buys with Legendary Upside

Apex Hunting: Dynasty RB Buys with Legendary Upside

If you haven’t been following along, over the last few weeks, I’ve been evaluating which players may be mispriced in dynasty markets based on the upside they offer. If you missed my first two articles, be sure to check them out:

If you don’t have time to go back and read those, the thrust of the argument I make is that, while I recognize that the market valuation of a player is based on many criteria – past performance, draft capital, age curves, positional scarcity, offensive environment, contract status, injury history, and liquidity, to name a few – I believe the number one measure that should occupy our frontal lobe when making any dynasty consideration is this: How realistic and repeatable is a player’s pathway to the positional apex?

If you want more insight into how I view upside, check out a few of these pieces I’ve written through the years:

And so I’m trying to keep that one question of upside in mind as I peruse the marketplace on KeepTradeCut, finding players I think provide good value relative to their upside potential, or, conversely, which players might be overpriced floor traps.

This week, I’m diving into running back buys. Let’s dig in.

Part 1 – Buys

CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY (RB13)

Two millennia ago, Cicero wrote of Damocles, the courier to King Dionysus, who was granted, for one day, all the excesses and freedoms of being king. He began the day on an aggressive campaign to eat, drink, and be merry, but Damocles came to discover that, no matter what he did, hanging above his head was a sword tenuously suspended by a single horsehair. The threat spoiled the luxury; along with the price of power was also the constant fear of death, so for the remainder of the day, Damocles could no longer enjoy the king’s excesses that he had long envied.

Some fantasy GMs kind of play dynasty this way; there is no peace until risk is compartmentalized and exported. If a player profile is subject to sudden value loss with only mild turbulence, many want nothing to do with it. But what if that profile also repeatedly demonstrates generational upside? Shouldn't our risk tolerance go a little further?

When Christian McCaffrey is humming, he’s possibly the greatest fantasy football entity of all time. Only Emmitt Smith has been the PPR RB1 as many times since 1970 (in an era when few even played fantasy football). Many remember the great Marshall Faulk, but even he achieved such a status only three times.

But entering his age-30 season, and coming off a season where he earned 413 touches, the most by an RB since DeMarco Murray in 2014, McCaffrey feels like a lit stick of dynamite, clasped in hand. Not only does he carry an enormous amount of power, but his demise as a football superpower is only a matter of time. Since many dynasty GMs are sketchy about being caught holding the bag, there may be some manner of gap between production value and market value to be exploited if a seller is eager to rebuild.

I know, I know. It sounds like we’re talking about an incoming supernova, and I’m advising you to stare off at one last sunset. And, hell, I’m the one who wrote an article called Always, Always, Always Do This One Simple Thing in Your Dynasty Leagues, But Also, Maybe Not Every Time for RotoViz in 2024; this was a piece where I effectively implored dynasty managers to always test the markets when they are holding the incumbent RB1 overall because RB1s rarely repeat and are generally priced as high as they ever will be again in dynasty markets. The exception I considered then was the reigning RB1 overall, McCaffrey, after his third RB1 overall season in 2023, because his profile and circumstances are so uniquely geared toward ceiling outcomes.

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