Apex Hunting: Dynasty TE Buys with Legendary Upside
Mat Irby’s Apex Hunting Series
All through the spring and summer, I’ve been dropping some dynasty buys and sells, but these aren’t based on the typical value arguments you’re accustomed to. I’m an upside guy, working for an upside publication, so I figured I’d focus a little bit more on upside with this series.
Basically, I’m combing through KeepTradeCut’s dynasty ranks to determine which players are above or below market value based solely on their upside indicators. Now, I’ll warn you, I might put an old guy on here, or there could be one or two where the likeliest outcome doesn’t offer the greatest edge. But I figure, by now, honestly? That stuff is all pretty well understood. I give you enough credit to identify those things. This series offers you something different, and it might just hold the key to winning your league this year.
Here’s why I think upside is still one of the most overlooked aspects of fantasy football:
- Stop Playing it Safe: Why Apex Drafting is the Key to Fantasy Success
- The Apex Drafting Strategy: Draft Sharks, Not Guppies
- Apex Drafting: How to Approach Keepers
- The NBA is Teaching Us A Lesson We Should Apply to Our Dynasty Leagues
This is part seven of an eight-part series. Let’s dive into the tight ends that are being overlooked for their league-winning potential.
Part 1 – TE Buys
TUCKER KRAFT (TE5)
TE5 is not a super great discount on a player who has already been in the league for three years and has never cracked the season-long top nine at the position, especially when we take into account that he’s coming off a torn ACL sustained last November. But the market sees Tucker Kraft as a big-time breakout candidate in 2026. And hey, the market has gotten pretty smart.
Yes, you’ll have to buy at cost, and that’s kind of a Versace price tag, but Kraft is probably, kinda, nearly, almost just as likely to be the next best thing at TE as Trey McBride, Brock Bowers, Colston Loveland, or Tyler Warren, and compared to those guys, the tag looks a little more DKNY.
The first argument I’d make for Kraft is that the breakout is really already underway. Kraft was the TE2 in PPR/G before the injury, and he had been a top 12 TE in over half of the weeks he’s played, including three straight, culminating in a massive 33.3-point smash against Pittsburgh in Week 8. Then came the season-ender.
What’s more is that Kraft is already hitting many of the upside indicators we’re looking for. He was sixth in receiving yards/G (54.3), third in receiving fantasy points over expected/G (FPOE/G, 4.2), second in yards per route run (YPRR, 2.33), second in yards after catch (YAC, 208), and first in YAC/reception (10.66) through the first seven weeks. All of these correlate well with future upside. Really, all that’s missing from his profile is consistent target-earning.
The Packers have famously been a jumble of pass-catchers with four or five WRs, two TEs, and an RB divvying up the spoils to frustrating levels for the last few years. But they’ve spent the off-season peeling off some of that excess, trading Dontayvion Wicks to Philadelphia and letting Romeo Doubs walk. They also haven’t really addressed pass-catching weapons through the draft or free agency. Finally, they extended veteran WRs Jayden Reed and Christian Watson, already committing to giving a smaller group bigger pieces of the pie.
With a more streamlined attack of Watson, Reed, sophomore WR Matthew Golden, and fellow TE Luke Musgrave, whom he’s already effectively boxed out of the passing game, the opportunities should only increase for Kraft. If he adds volume and maintains the rest, he’s right there in the running for the TE1 overall this year.
Kraft is still young at age 25. HC Matt LaFleur seemed optimistic earlier this spring that Kraft would not only be back for Week 1 but also be under no restrictions. Here’s your last chance to load up on Kraft; he’ll be firmly entrenched in the TE elite, likely before we even get to September.
KYLE PITTS (TE8)
Kyle Pitts closed out 2025 with the best stretch of his career, leading TEs from Week 13 on in targets per route run (TPRR), air yard share, receiving yards/G, and WOPR, and finishing second in PPR/G. Famously, he erupted for 45.6 PPR in Week 15, breaking hearts and securing semifinal berths in the fantasy playoffs.
Pitts finished in the top 3 in several key statistical categories, including some of the better predictors of upside.
Pitts hasn’t demonstrated that he is as much of a tackle breaker as a lot of the TEs who fit the apex archetype, but he excels downfield, ranking third among all TEs since 2021 in air yards per game, and first among active TEs, assuming Darren Waller doesn’t return this year. Air yards also have decent predictive power for upside.
The most predictive apex metric for TEs is raw yardage. Pitts has a 1,000-yard season already under his belt, which he achieved as a rookie. The only other active TEs to accomplish that are Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Zach Ertz, Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson, Brock Bowers, and Trey McBride. And Pitts, who nearly hit that mark a second time last season, still isn’t 26.
Pitts has spent large swathes of time in offenses that weren’t fully functional, especially while playing under Arthur Smith, who doesn’t historically consolidate targets to one TE. Pitts has also endured painfully subpar QB play since Matt Ryan left town after his rookie season. He gets another shot with a new OC; time will tell what it yields. But Pitts seems like a good fit for QB Tua Tagovailoa, who will at least start the season as the Falcons starter and threw passes for a historically efficient Miami offense in 2023.
Historical data shows that we want TEs with a good shot to be their team’s first or second leading target-earner. While RB Bijan Robinson is there and could reasonably challenge for one of the top two spots, Pitts was second behind Drake London last year and is probably the most likely candidate to be second on the team again in 2026.
The overarching argument for Pitts? His usage is the only thing that seems to lag. The bet is that, with a little more opportunity and a little more TD luck, Pitts is exactly the type of player who could suddenly spike.
