Draft Like You Have a Time Machine
The more I think about it, the more I think the late rounds offer one of the biggest edges in best ball.
Granted, any given late-round pick is unlikely to deliver for you. In fact, late-round selections are so tricky to get right that we've frequently seen high advance rates for late-round picks who don't even provide a meaningful fantasy contribution.
These players are typically dragged along as part of stacks. For example, Quez Watkins did very little last year, yet the half-PPR game log below was good for a 25.9% advance rate.
It's pretty clear why Watkins "produced" a high advance rate—he was pulled along as a stacking partner with Jalen Hurts, who had a much stronger 33.8% advance rate.
We saw similar results last year from Justin Watson (23.2%) and Equanimeous St. Brown (23%). Each WR had just one 10+ point outing all year. But the teams that drafted them were more likely to have already selected Patrick Mahomes (30.6%) and Justin Fields (26.5%).
If late-round advance rates are this noisy, can picks in this range really offer an edge?
The Importance of Late-Round Production
While the odds of hitting on any given late-round pick are very low, it's a good bet that we'll see crucial fantasy contributions from someone in the late-round player pool.
Several players will likely make a significant impact in the best ball playoffs. The tricky part is identifying them ahead of time.
In 2021, Amon-Ra St. Brown was on 29% of the 160 BBM2 finals teams. Only Mark Andrews (66%), Cooper Kupp (46%), and Davante Adams (29%) matched or exceeded that mark. But while Andrews, Kupp, and Adams cost a pick in the top five rounds, St. Brown had a late 14th-round ADP. So the value of hitting on St. Brown in 2021 is hard to overstate, especially because he blew up for a tournament-winning 31.4 half-PPR points in Week 17. He was hugely helpful in getting to the finals and an essential component of the winning roster.
But although St. Brown was "the guy you needed" in 2021, he – surprisingly – didn't have the highest finals advance rate among late-round picks. That honor belongs to Justin Jackson. Jackson was only drafted in 19% of leagues and did nothing throughout best ball's regular season, but he supercharged playoff teams with a 30.2-point outing in Week 16.
Teams that drafted Jackson advanced to the finals at a 0.49% rate. That might not seem all that high... but it's 4.8x higher than the expected finals rate. So simply selecting Justin Jackson nearly quintupled your chances of making the 160-person final.
Byron Pringle was also a major factor. Due to a well-timed spike week, he posted a 0.30% finals rate, nearly 3x higher than expected.
Of course, trying to predict these types of random spikes is impossible.
But at the same time, it's clear that hitting on these types of spikes in the late rounds is extremely powerful. And, while any individual player is a huge longshot to produce that type of outcome, we can expect the late-round player pool at large to generate some highly impactful performances.
Late-Round Playoff Heroes
In 2021, 23 players with an ADP of 140+ were able to hit a 0.14% finals rate or higher. With an ADP of 140 or higher, these players weren't always drafted in the late rounds, but in any given draft, they could be found in Round 14+.
Some of these "hits" are statistical noise; they were dragged along as common combos with highly successful players. But most had a real impact.
2021's late-round playoff heroes were made up of:
- 9 RBs
- 8 WRs
- 4 TEs
- 2 QBs
In 2022, 22 players hit the same thresholds. And although some of these players (Quez Watkins, Khalil Shakir, Sterling Shepard) were pulled along by their QBs, most had a legitimate impact.
2022's late-round playoff heroes were made up of:
- 10 WRs
- 8 RBs
- 2 TEs
- 2 QBs
The true heroes in this group were Zay Jones and Jerick McKinnon, who each had huge Week 15 performances. McKinnon also delivered 20.1 points in the final.
But D'Onta Foreman, Tyler Higbee, Tyler Allgeier, K.J. Osborn, and Kendrick Bourne each had a 20+ point outing in Week 15 or 16. At QB, Trevor Lawrence and Jared Goff hit 27+.
Jamaal Williams and Raheem Mostert didn't do much in the single-elimination weeks, but they were vital advance rate contributors who came alive for 19+ point games in the championship game.
Again, the odds of actually hitting on one of these players are very low. That makes each late-round pick worth very little.
But because the production floor is so low in the late rounds, generating points out of those roster spots is extremely powerful. Late-round picks aren't worth much... but they're still very important.
Embracing Uncertainty
The issue with late-round picks is that, by definition, these are players the market isn't confident in. As a result, they are far riskier selections than picks in the early rounds.
But risk isn't inherently bad in fantasy football. For example, I've argued for several years that drafting RBs in the early rounds is risky but potentially worthwhile because understanding risk does not always mean avoiding risk.
Sam Sherman recently had an interesting Twitter thread on Required Rate of Return, outlining the idea that the higher the risk is on a player, the higher their expected return should be.
How to apply a Fundamental Investing Principles to Fantasy Football to help evaluate player ADPs in Best Ball
— Sam Sherman (@Sherman_FFB) May 4, 2023
And why you should be familiar with the concept of "Required Rate of Return" (RRR) when evaluating "risky" or "discounted" players
A thread 🧵
This concept helps explain why selectively drafting early-round RBs is often worth the risk. The risk is high, but when the payoff hits, you can name a website after it.
We want to be thoughtful about the risk we're taking on in our drafts... but we don't want to draft scared. As long as the requisite payoff is worth it, taking on risk is simply part of the game.
RBs can reward drafters who take on risk in the early rounds, and they can pay off in the late rounds as well.
Last summer, Jerick McKinnon was drafted well behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire and generally behind at least one of Isiah Pacheco or Ronald Jones. He finished as the Chiefs' RB4 in ADP. His floor was very low. But McKinnon had a 21% playoff advance rate and the fifth-best finals advance rate in the entire player pool.
D'Onta Foreman was drafted as a handcuff lottery ticket behind Christian McCaffrey. As a journeyman RB behind a superstar, he could have easily been a wasted pick. But Foreman had a 22% playoff advance rate and the 15th-best finals advance rate.
Drafters were risking a dead roster spot with both selections. But both players provided huge payoffs.
We saw a similar dynamic in 2021 with Rashaad Penny and Darrel Williams.
Penny was viewed as Chris Carson's injury-prone backup. But he broke out at the end of the year, delivering the 32nd-best finals rate and 31.5 points in Week 17.
Williams was seen as a boring handcuff to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who had a 2nd-round ADP. The market was so confident that Williams had nothing to offer that he was selected in just 28% of BBM2 drafts. Nevertheless, he led the Chiefs' backfield in rushing and receiving yards, posting a 22% playoff advance rate and the 21st-best finals advance rate in BBM2.
Pairing Ceiling and Floor
Ideally, we'd like to have our cake and eat it too. You can make a case that nearly any RB currently on an NFL roster has a theoretical ceiling. But the floor for many of these backs is to be inactive on game day. Preferably, we want to identify backs with underpriced upside but who also provide strong odds of regularly seeing the field on Sundays.
Devin Singletary offered this type of bet in 2021. With an ADP of 142.4, he sometimes made his way into Round 14+. At that price, he was all upside.
At worst, Singletary profiled as the clear No. 2 on the Bills behind Zack Moss. And as it turned out, he was the clear No. 1 for most of the year and delivered a huge payoff. Singletary had a 26% playoff advance rate with the fifth-highest finals rate in 2021.
Jamaal Williams was last year's version of the Singletary bet. With an ADP of 167.5, he could be had in the late rounds, yet he was the locked-in No. 2 behind D'Andre Swift. And his role security isn't just hindsight. Hayden Winks was pounding the table for Williams... noting that The Athletic listed him at 1B on the Lions' depth chart.
It turns out Williams wasn't the 1B... he was the 1A, with Swift turning in a 1D type of season.
On his way to leading the NFL in TDs, Williams posted a 31% advance rate. Despite disappearing for Weeks 15 and 16, he was such a helpful regular-season pick that he still finished with the 49th-best finals advance rate. Williams then spiked in the championship game with 22.2 points.
The market sometimes gets bored with backs like Williams, allowing players in his archetype to slip into the late rounds.
These backs are priority targets.
Any time we can identify a locked-in RB2 in the late rounds, the potential payoff is almost certainly worth the risk. This is especially true when the starter has red flags surrounding his workload or talent level.
RBs who look locked in as clear handcuffs will generally have a higher perceived floor, so costs can be expected to be slightly higher. We're usually talking about a 13th-/14th-round archetype pick rather than a 17th-/18th-round selection. But that premium won't feel very expensive if the bet hits.
Chasing Steam
When building out a best ball portfolio, we want to draft players when they are at their cheapest. Ideally, if a player moves up substantially in ADP, we already have an overweight position on him.
And staying ahead of the market isn't just an exercise in feeling smart; it provides tangible expected value gains, as Mike Leone laid out in his Best Ball Manifesto.
If reaching for a player who is screaming up boards, we're far less likely to benefit from closing line value. We also have to consider that some of our competitors in the best ball playoffs will have had access to lower prices on the same player. Meaning if you draft a player at his most expensive point, you could still find yourself at a disadvantage even if you get the pick right. In your playoff pods or Week 17, you'll likely face off against the same player on teams that spent less draft capital for the same production—creating the potential for much stronger overall squads.
However, after looking at the late-round playoff heroes from the last two seasons, I'm planning to chase some players up boards.
Which players? I don't know yet—and that is the point.
Onesie Battles
For the most part, we already know the top players at QB and TE for each NFL team. But there are usually a few cases where a starting job is genuinely up for grabs. And given that there are only 32 starters at each position, targeting the winners of these jobs is valuable.
Last year, Geno Smith was drafted in just 3% of all BBM3 leagues, despite it becoming increasingly clear that he had run away with the Seahawks' starting QB job. None of Smith's 969 BBM3 teams made the final, but he was a very strong pick, posting a 29% advance rate.
In 2021, Blake Jarwin was drafted in 97% of BBM2 leagues, while Dalton Schultz was taken in just 13%. Yet Schultz out-snapped Jarwin in the Cowboys' final preseason game.
Schultz turned in a breakout season, delivering a 20% advance rate and the 33rd-best finals advance rate. Of course, Schultz was helped by the fact that Jarwin went on injured reserve after Week 8, but through Week 8, Schultz saw 6.3 targets per game to Jarwin's 2.7. So the preseason snaps were actually understating the danger that Jarwin was in.
RB Depth Chart Shakeups
While late summer will give us the occasional QB or TE target, RB depth charts are reliably shuffled during the preseason.
And even if the shuffling doesn't affect the starting RB, correctly identifying the No. 2 RB on a given NFL team can still be highly beneficial.
In 2021, Justin Jackson was selected in just 19% of BBM2 drafts. That makes sense, given early offseason reports.
But by August, the reporting had flipped. Far from being on the bubble, Jackson appeared to be the clear No. 2 back on the depth chart.
Jackson did very little in his backup role... until Austin Ekeler missed Week 16. Then, with Ekeler inactive, Jackson went off.
Jackson's single spike week was enough to give him the highest finals advance rate in BBM2. Over the last two seasons, only Justin Jefferson has had a higher finals advance rate.
And if you think about it, the fact that Jackson wasn't popular in early drafts made selecting him in August more powerful, not less.
When considered a cut candidate in the early summer, Jackson – understandably – was largely going undrafted. As a result, when he dropped 30 points in Week 16, he was doing so in playoff pods where he wasn't especially common. If you hit on Jackson's Week 16 production, there was a good chance you were the only team in the group with access to those points. Jackson's 30-point outing was a massive score for a late-round pick, and it was also enormous leverage on much of the playoff competition.
So... yes, Jackson got more expensive as the summer went on. But fading him for that reason would have been getting things backward. Jackson should have been even more appealing in late drafts because of his earlier uncertainty; he was a lock to provide leverage on early drafters if he hit.
Crucially, Jackson never got particularly expensive. If drafting Jackson in September cost a 9th- or 10th-round pick, that would be much harder to justify. But instead, he went from being undrafted to being a 17th-round pick. That's a meaningless rise in cost. And even if Jackson jumped to a 14th rounder... the new price would have still represented very little in terms of overall draft capital expenditure. Chasing a player up the board might feel fishy, but as long as he stays in the late rounds, it's likely a sharp play—provided he was going undrafted for a significant portion of the tournament.
In 2022, we saw a similar dynamic with Jaylen Warren and Samaje Perine.
Warren didn't make any real noise until mid-August, but the training camp buzz around him taking over the No. 2 role proved correct.
Warren wasn't particularly impactful as a rookie but mixed in for a few helpful games in the fantasy playoffs.
Warren never generated a ton of points, but his drafters were at least helped by the fact that he was selected just 14% of the time. Although he didn't pay off in a considerable way, Warren still had a strong finals advance rate and was a very worthy selection in BBM3 drafts.
Samaje Perine had a bigger regular-season payoff, with a 25% advance rate. He disappeared in the fantasy playoffs but still finished with the 33rd-best finals advance rate.
And, like Jackson and Warren, Perine was an afterthought in early drafts. Every sharp drafter worth his salt knew Chris Evans was the Bengals' backup to draft in May-July.
However, Evans played in the Bengals' final preseason game while Perine rested—a clear indication that Perine was the real No. 2.
I was part of the Chris Evans crew in early drafts, so I did not want to hear this news. Fortunately, Ben Gretch, my Ship Chasing co-host, was all over Perine at the close of draft season. Thankfully, that kept me from completely missing the boat.
Still, drafting Perine didn't feel fun because it was a tacit admission that I'd screwed up earlier drafts.
But while admitting mistakes is never fun, we're rarely on an island when we incorrectly project depth charts in early drafts. And those collective mistakes are a reason to prioritize players we ignored to begin draft season.
Perine was selected in just 11% of BBM3 drafts. Yet, if his stretch of relevance occurred four weeks later, he would have been the story of the 2022 best ball season.
The value of late-summer RB information helps explain why spending less draft capital at the position has been more powerful as the summer progresses.
With zero RB builds looking most powerful in late drafts, we can benefit from late summer information in multiple ways.
If you hit on a late-round RB on a team specifically structured to benefit from that performance and that hit provides playoff leverage... you're setting your future self up for a fun January.
Draft Like You Have a Time Machine
Let's take "draft like you're right" one step further. Honestly, you want to draft a team that's not just a little right but dead on the money.
Ok then... so let's imagine you're drafting a team right now, and you know the team will make the finals. You're not even done drafting the squad, but you know for a fact that it is finals bound.
While on the clock in the late rounds, the question then becomes, how will your next pick help you take down the top prize in Week 17?
Immediately, skill players become more interesting in this framing. Sure, I'll grant that you could hit on a well-timed spike week from a late-round passer. But imagine we jump into the future, and upon exiting our DeLorean we see that the team you're currently drafting has made the Week 17 finals and is getting strong performances from several early-round picks.
But that's all you know.
And now you're on the clock in the 18th round.
You're picking Desmond Ridder?
As I'll dive into further in a future article, there's no shame in 3QB builds. In fact, if you don't spend early firepower at the position, a QB3 can be a thoughtful way to spend a late-round pick.
But while a late-round QB could provide crucial points for making the playoffs in the first place, your QB3 is not very likely to generate a playoff spike week.
And even if you get a QB spike week, that performance is less likely to separate from the pack than an RB, WR, or TE spike week.
I'll have more on how to attack the quarterback position in a future article, but suffice it to say that – if hunting for playoff upside – I think you're better off drafting an additional skill player rather than a QB3.
Another issue with taking a late-round QB3 is that these players often lack job security. So while it's plausible that Trey Lance, Brock Purdy, Sam Howell, Desmond Ridder, Mac Jones, Jimmy Garoppolo, Baker Mayfield, or Ryan Tannehill will produce a playoff spike week, it's also very likely that several of them will not be starting NFL quarterbacks by New Year's Eve. And if you draft a QB who gets benched, that dead roster spot will impact your playoff chances.
Avoiding Dead Roster Spots
Having late-round leverage in the playoffs is very powerful, but it's also hard to achieve before training camps kick off. It's not impossible to hit on players who aren't regularly drafted; it's just that looking for these hits comes with a high chance of producing a dead roster spot. And we want to avoid taking zeroes as much as possible.
In Part 2 of his Best Ball Manifesto, Mike Leone covered an element of drafting that we seemingly have very little control over: how many "live" players BBM3 teams had for the playoff weeks.
Having at least 14 players score more than zero points in the fantasy playoffs significantly boosted expected value, as Leone illustrated with this chart:
Leone views this component as mostly luck... and that's because it is mostly luck.
Cooper Kupp was a dead roster spot in last year's playoffs. But Kupp hit 20+ points in 4-of-10 games last year. So if you made the playoffs with an injured Kupp, it wasn't a sign of a weak draft—to make the playoffs without Kupp means you crushed your draft. In other words, Kupp missing the playoffs was bad luck, not bad process.
And to some extent, Leone's findings above are driven by teams not having lost their foundational players. For example, a team with 16 live roster spots is much less likely to have lost an early-round impact player than a team with 13 live players.
But still, some late-round players have had huge impacts, and the more live roster spots you have, the more likely you are to have landed on a late-round playoff hero.
Avoiding taking zeroes is incredibly challenging when drafting in May-June because dead roster spots are most likely in early drafts.
Drafting before training camp has even begun will provide stellar prices on some of the most essential players in the upcoming season. But at the same time, there's a lot we don't know right now, and it's ok to admit that. In fact, if we draft with the knowledge that many late-round picks are pure guesses, we can avoid wrecking teams with a ton of dead roster spots.
But what does drafting to avoid dead roster spots look like?
Targeting Rookies WRs
If I was on the clock in the 18th round and knew for a fact that my team would make the finals... my first thought would be to take a rookie WR.
After all, we've yet to have a BBM winner who didn't get a playoff spike week from a rookie WR—K.J. Hamler, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Tyquan Thornton each delivered when it counted.
But is it really fair to characterize taking rookie WRs as a tactic for reducing dead roster spots?
Well, remember that we are trying to reduce dead roster spots in the fantasy playoffs. So sacrificing some early-season production for increased odds of a late-season surge is an alluring trade-off if trying to minimize playoff zeroes with your late-round picks. And we have compelling research from Jack Miller showing that rookies do get more productive as the season progresses; it's not just a narrative.
Peter Overzet also covered the tournament-winning potential of rookies last summer.
Encouragingly, the late-season effect for rookies appears to increase when looking specifically at the final rounds of drafts. Jack found late-round WRs startingly powerful when putting his research together in 2021.
But keep in mind, this chart was produced the summer after Tee Higgins was drafted as a late-round pick. And it's not 2020 anymore.
With a sharper ADP environment and a thinner incoming rookie WR class, we're no longer fishing with dynamite when selecting rookie WRs in the late rounds. Still, if a rookie WR breaks out, he's most likely to be productive in the weeks that matter most. And with more players seeing the field at WR, it's easier to avoid selecting a complete zero than it is with a rookie RB.
Targeting Rookie RBs
It's worth noting that Jack found the same effect for RBs; their production has also increased as the season has gone on.
This finding increases the likelihood that there is a reliable late-season rookie surge for NFL players. It also provides another path to targeting late-season fantasy production.
As we saw last season with Tyrion Davis-Price, the floor on rookie RBs is extremely low. However, as we saw with Tyler Allgeier, their production can be incredibly well-timed.
Again, if you've seen the future, and that future involves your early-round picks hitting in Week 17, you'd then be searching specifically for Week 17 upside in the late rounds. A rookie RB checks that box.
Then again, running back is a volatile position. And rookie RBs, in particular, tend to be high-variance selections. So it's a little silly to suggest that taking an unknown commodity at the highest-variance position is somehow a high-floor play.
But for the purposes of avoiding dead roster spots in early summer drafts, I'm not suggesting that you load up on Day 3 rookies in uncertain situations. Instead, I'm inclined to pay up slightly for rookies with solid draft capital behind them or with a clear path to an immediate role on Sundays.
Paying a Small Premium at RB
Last season, Isiah Pacheco lit up Chiefs training camp on the way to a very impressive rookie campaign. But the first concrete indication that he was a good fantasy pick had nothing to do with his role on offense.
Draft capital raises the floor for rookie RBs considerably... but so does a spot on the active gameday roster. We probably won't get a great sense of the return-game competition until early in training camp. But it makes sense to act quickly if a Day 3 RB wins a return job, especially if the RB2 spot on the depth chart isn't locked in.
It also makes sense to target veteran RBs who can be safely projected as the clear lead back if the starter were to go down. This type of back makes sense in early and late drafts, but I'm willing to pay more for solid depth chart information in earlier drafts when that information is harder to come by.
And whether targeting rookies or veterans in the late rounds of early drafts, I'm open to being heavily overweight on RBs who I feel confident will have a role of some kind on Sundays. I can balance things out later in the summer when RB options on other teams become clearer picks with the weight of preseason information behind them.
Being overweight on clear backup RBs can also create closing line value. These RBs can potentially move up in cost throughout the summer as obvious candidates for "undervalued" and "sleeper" lists as the fantasy content machine gears up.
To the extent that I wade into the true uncertainty of the late-round RB pool in early drafts, I will try and do a better job of targeting players who appear to be quietly building depth chart momentum rather than leaning heavily on relatively thin player evaluations.
Don't get me wrong; at this point, I think RB talent is underrated in fantasy football analysis. And it's an element I want to weigh heavily at the top of drafts—we're looking for more than just projected touches in the early rounds. And even through the early double-digit rounds, I'm happy to bet on talent.
But in the late rounds, simply correctly predicting who coaches like can go a very long way.
With that in mind, in late BBM4 drafts, I'm skeptical of taking players who aren't being regularly drafted at that point in an attempt to gain playoff leverage. Instead, I'd prefer to take players I have growing confidence in who were undrafted for a large portion of the tournament.
Spending $2 to make $5
In the early drafting window, I think it can sometimes make sense to intentionally create a dead roster spot in search of one productive player.
On my winning BBM3 team, I had just three RBs through 15 rounds. I'd bet big on Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley and expected them to carry the position. I got an excellent value on Rhamondre Stevenson in the 10th round, who delivered on my hopes for a breakout campaign. I needed some additional points at the RB position at that point, but I didn't need a grand slam. Even a committee runner on a solid offense would be a win, given that Ekeler, Barkley, and Stevenson basically had to hit for the team to live.
So, in the 16th and 17th rounds, I took Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel. At the time, both players were on the Dolphins, and it looked very likely that one of them would have a meaningful role on offense. Even better, given the undersized Chase Edmonds' lack of goal-line opportunities throughout his career, Mostert or Michel looked like a solid bet to operate ahead of Edmonds at the goal line.
If you think of my 16th- and 17th-round picks as worth $1 each in auction league terms, I was essentially spending $2 with the hope of hitting on a $5 player.
That tactic paid off in a big way. Michel became a dead roster spot, but Mostert became a crucial contributor in the regular season and the playoffs.
Keep in mind, I was not attempting to capture the Dolphins' entire backfield with this tactic. Instead, I was deliberately taking two shots at one NFL role.
This is not the type of thing I want to be doing in most drafts. But in scenarios where I need to fill out cheap RB depth in early drafts, I'm open to taking two cracks at one RB job, provided I feel good enough about the potential role on the offense I'm targeting.
Boring Veteran WRs
Now that I've floated handcuff-adjacent, borderline-boomer behavior, it's time we talk about targeting boring veteran WRs.
As I've covered, rookie WRs are often safer bets than veterans when the goal is late-season production. But veteran WRs have their place too.
Sam Sherman has shown that late-round WRs are potentially undervalued as spike-week contributors; it's not just late-round RBs with spike-week ability.
Granted, if I were attempting to find a player who could emerge from the late rounds to operate as a high-end fantasy contributor for the entirety of the season, I would target a young RB. James Robinson/Myles Gaskin/Elijah Mitchell-type seasons are a semi-regular occurrence at RB; it's harder to hit on a massive breakout with a late-round veteran WR.
But if simply searching for a player who can provide a live roster spot for the fantasy playoffs with upside for a spike week or two, veteran WRs look far more interesting... even if it requires taking the types of players most of us have trouble getting excited about. Most of us.
Last year, Zay Jones was not a player that I wanted to bet on. The dude had a career YPRR of 0.97... I felt very confident that he was not a special WR.
One year later... I don't feel much differently about Jones' lack of high-end talent. In his 2022 breakout season, he posted an unimpressive 1.47 YPRR and finished WR57 in ESPN's receiver ratings. But clearly, I was overconfident in my belief that Jones was bad, especially considering that he was coming off a 2021 career high in YPRR, entering his age-27 season, and had just been signed to a $24 million contract. Given the lack of WR competition in Jacksonville, Jones provided a high playing-time floor. If he turned out to be better than I thought – which he did – it was all upside.
As a follow-up to this post, I plan to write up some of my favorite late-round targets. And fortunately, I won't have to include Adam Thielen in it. Thielen is in the midst of a multi-year decline and is entering his age-33 season. Fortunately for me, his $25 million contract has pushed him above the late rounds; he currently has a 12th-round ADP.
Because Thielen is being universally drafted and is going well before the final rounds, I get to stubbornly stick to my talent > opportunity guns. But if Thielen were a last-round pick, it would be hard to completely fade him. Like it or not, the Panthers fully expect him to run a lot of routes this season.
And while I think it helped that Zay Jones was still in his mid-20s last season, I don't think his age is the main lesson from his breakout. Instead, he looks like an indication that players with locked-in contracts who lack route competition can provide a shockingly high weekly fantasy ceiling.
Jones was far from a consistent week-in-week-out producer. But he didn't need to be. His four spike weeks, including a massive Week 15 outing, gave him the fourth-best finals advance rate in BBM3.
And Jones was only selected in 74% of BBM3 drafts.
In retrospect, it seems pretty silly that we let a clear starter in 2WR sets fall completely out of the draft a quarter of the time.
As someone who almost certainly passed on Zay Jones to "scoop" D'Ernest Johnson last year, consider this my Zay Jones mea culpa.
Overstacking
Sometimes, even if I know I should take a player, I still have trouble actually doing it. This issue is one of the reasons I'm such a huge fan of correlation.
Building in correlation to your lineups can strengthen an individual team and an overall portfolio by encouraging you to thoughtfully draft players you usually avoid.
Given my love of correlation, it's probably not a surprise that I'm open to the idea of overstacking, i.e., taking more skill players on an offense than can realistically spike together in the same week.
But when implementing this tactic, cost is key.
If you've selected an early quarterback at an elevated price compared to last year... you're betting on an outlier season and an outlier Week 17 performance. Sure, you may get a random spike from your QB2, but odds are that you'll need a big game from your elite QB in the championship game to finish in 1st place.
With that in mind, let's hop back into our time machine.
If you travel to the future and see that your high-ceiling QB is smashing... wouldn't you want to take a few extra late-round stabs at ensuring each TD he throws hits your lineup twice?
Not every elite QB has intriguing late-round dart throws... but many of them do, including the four most expensive—Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson all have at least one late-round pass catcher who can be tacked onto stacks. Again, it's unlikely that these dart throws will actually hit your lineup when it counts. But adding them is still appealing. Because... they aren't just correlated with your QB—they are correlated with a quarterback who you've seen smash in the Week 17 future.
This tactic can also apply to cheaper quarterbacks. For example, I've tacked on Josh Downs and Jelani Woods to Anthony Richardson builds. Critics of this approach would contend that Richardson has poor odds of supporting high-end outcomes for both Downs and Woods in the same week. That criticism is especially relevant on lineups that also contain Michael Pittman or Alec Pierce. But by cheaply overstacking a QB with late-round picks, you aren't necessarily betting that every player will hit your lineup in Week 17. Instead, you are making a season-long bet on the offense. And in Week 17, you are simply doubling down on your bet on the quarterback. Your team stands to benefit massively if he throws for 3+ TDs. Adding additional late-round pass catchers provides extra inexpensive outs to having those TDs hit your lineup twice.
Likewise, if you've made a big bet on a particular game shooting out in Week 17, then for the purposes of that lineup... the game will shoot out. Having seen that future, it may make sense to add additional bring-backs on your Week 17 game stacks.
These bring-backs should ideally have a clear path to a consistent role.
Extra Swings at Tight End
Job security becomes a major issue when you get into the late rounds. But at tight end, there are often several starting NFL tight ends available in the final picks of drafts right now. This makes the position an interesting way to build in extra correlation. But TE prices also create intriguing roster construction opportunities.
I strongly believe in targeting elite tight ends, but drafts can have multiple pockets of positional value. Last year, I published research suggesting that late-round tight ends offered a big slice of spike-week production at the position.
Hayden Winks has also argued for punting tight end, writing:
Then there's the fragility of the elite TE1 landscape. There are only so many TEs who have the talent, role, and offense that can create a true difference-making season. Right now, I think that short list is just Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews, so if Kelce misses time or starts declining, then the entire late-round TE strategy takes a massive win. There simply would be fewer 15+ point games at the position, so all it takes is 1-2 things breaking a certain way for an entire strategy to go right! That phenomenon is far less likely at QB where there are arguably 5 potential elites, WR where there are arguably 7-10 elites, or RB where there are arguably 5-11 elites.
I'll push back here a bit and note that for the purposes of a multi-week playoff production spike, we're fading more than just two elite tight ends—elite TEs might not be advance-rate stars, but they've been playoff hammers.
But I do agree with Hayden's larger point that tight end provides the most fragile bet for elite production of the four fantasy positions. It's entirely possible we don't see a single tight end produce a multi-week production spike in the best ball playoffs this year. That prospect is far less likely at QB, RB, and WR. Hitting on an elite stretch of TE production is very powerful... but if that production simply doesn't exist this year, minimizing draft capital at the position is likely to be a big edge.
And Hayden has also put together a chart showing how ADPs have shifted from last year. Non-Kelce elite TEs are far cheaper than in 2022... but late-round TEs are cheaper as well.
And even if you are an elite TE maximalist, targeting the elites is not incompatible with targeting late-round TEs. Not only do late-round TEs provide a solid backup plan... they can be paired on the same team with an elite TE.
As I noted in my elite TE article, teams that took at tight end before Round 6 and then punted their TE2 to Round 14+ have had above-average advance rates and very strong playoff rates over the last two seasons.
And intriguingly, taking two late TE stabs also produced strong results on elite TE builds.
Counterintuitively, taking an elite TE is a bet against the position. You want the TE you selected to be dominant, but other than that, the pick works best if the position is a wasteland. Your elite TE isn't likely to be the highest-scoring pass catcher in his ADP range—so you want maximum leverage at the tight end position. You want the trendy breakout candidates to fizzle and the other elites to disappoint.
As a late-round TE drafter... you want the same thing. So elite TE and late-round TE actually pair together more logically than it might seem.
And with TEs currently providing late-round value relative to their 2022 ADPs, tacking on a couple of professional starting TEs for minimal cost is a good way to reduce your odds of landing on a dead roster spot. Sure, the tight ends in the final rounds aren't always very exciting, but unlike many of the RBs in that range, we can feel confident they will have a meaningful snap share this season.
And as injuries occur – shrinking the pool of exciting players – we'll likely see the cost of these late-round TE starters increase. Therefore, while late-August drafters can take advantage of June afterthoughts turning into trendy preseason names, June drafters may want to attack things differently.
Remembering Where You Came From
When traveling into the future, it's helpful to remember where you came from.
Before hurtling into the January future, what were you doing? Were you enjoying some 4th of July fireworks?
In that case, it may make sense to attempt to reduce dead roster spots with extra tight end selections; target RBs and WRs with role security; or take rookie WRs with high draft capital, or on barren depth charts. It may also make sense to break ties to 3QB builds when unsure if you need the advance-rate boost.
But what if your trip to the future was a reprieve from back-to-school shopping?
In that case, you may want to break ties to 2QB/2TE builds and target trendy players, especially RBs, who were undrafted in the early window. It's also logical to target unheralded rookies who appear to have won jobs in training camp. These players may still be viewed as risky by the field, but if they produce, their best performances are likely to be toward the end of the season.
But in both cases... you want to play to the strength of the offseason window you're drafting in.
Revving Up the Time Machine
Just so we're clear, I haven't completely lost my mind.
I realize that we don't have a time machine.
I realize that we cannot travel to Week 17.
I also realize that even if we did have a time-traveling device, I'm outlining a time-travel plan that is a spectacular waste of reality-bending technology.
But here's the thing—when drafting a best ball tournament team, we travel to the future in the tiniest way. Because once you've selected your early-round picks, at least a few of them will deliver huge Week 17 performances. If we don't live in that world, what's the point of even finishing the draft?
In a sense, you know that at least some of your early picks will hit. And not just turn in nice fun little seasons, but hit with the power to drive your team to the championship round... and crush once there. So return to the present, and draft the rest of your team accordingly.
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Pat Kerrane
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