Dublin Game Walkthrough Week 4: Irish Goodbye

Pat Kerrane

27 Sep 2025

Welcome to the Week 4 Dublin Game Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for a glorious morning of international football.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Vikings at Steelers, 9:30 AM

Vikings

Implied Team Total: 21.75

Kevin O'Connell has been coaching the Vikings since 2022 and has had a consistent lean to the pass over that tenure.

But O'Connell is playing things a bit differently this year.

The switch-up is understandable. O'Connell currently has Carson Wentz at QB... and that's arguably a good thing.

O'Connell isn't going ultra run-heavy, though. Minnesota is mostly just leaning into positive game script when it's available.

And with the Vikings as 2.5-point favorites on a neutral field, they aren't a lock to be playing from ahead here.

Fortunately, the Steelers' pass defense is unimpressive, with Pittsburgh looking vulnerable in coverage.

The Steelers' pass rush has been impressive, though. EDGE Nick Herbig is having a strong start to the year, ranking second in pass rush win rate and 20th in pass rush grade. T.J. Watt hasn't been a star this year, but he's been solid, ranking 34th in pass rush grade.

Alex Highsmith ranks 13th in pass rush grade, but will miss this game due to an ankle injury.

The Vikings won't be at full strength in the trenches, either. LG Donovan Jackson will be out after undergoing wrist surgery.

But, with Christian Darrisaw returning last week, the Vikings' offensive line is still in decent shape, and should be able to mitigate a Steelers' pass rush that is at less than full strength.

The Vikings are down a starting quarterback... but they have a starting wide receiver returning to the lineup.

Jordan Addison will make his 2025 debut in Dublin and should boost the Vikings' downfield efficiency. Addison was an effective deep threat last year. He drew double coverage at a fairly high rate and turned in a solid 1.64 YPRR. He sets up as a WR4 here.

Justin Jefferson should benefit from Jordan Addison's return. With Addison out of the lineup, somehow both Jalen Nailor and Adam Thielen were operating as deep threats. And that went exactly as well as you think it did.

Jefferson now has a running mate who can siphon off more targets, but also one who can help lift the ceiling of the entire operation.

And if the Vikings offense is clicking, Jefferson remains one of the highest-ceiling options in all of fantasy. Even with JJ McCarthy's weak start to the year, and now being on a Carson Wentz offense, Jefferson has an elite 2.47 YPRR. He's a high-end WR1.

TJ Hockenson could also benefit from a more efficient offensive environment. Hockenson has an impressive 21% target share, but hasn't been able to convert on his opportunity, with just a 5.8 YPT, 1.17 YPRR, and -1 FPOE per game. He's a positive regression candidate against a weak secondary and is a low-end TE1.

If the Vikings need to throw this week, I trust them to do what it takes to win. And even with Carson Wentz at QB, I trust them to be reasonably efficient against the Steelers' secondary.

However, the Vikings may not need to pass much here. As we saw against the Bengals, their defense can make life extremely difficult for the opposing QB, and set the Vikings up in positive game script.

And if the Vikings are in position to pound the rock, they should do so efficiently against a mediocre Steelers run defense.

Jordan Mason has run extremely efficiently this year, combining a strong success with impressive burst.

The only caveat here is that, even with Aaron Jones out, Mason looks unlikely to dominate snaps. Last week's usage was influenced by garbage time, but per Ben Gretch, Zavier Scott's usage was legit; he looks to be the No. 2 here and is at least somewhat involved.

Mason's role is likely stronger than last week's blowout win suggests, but he's unlikely to be a true bellcow. Even still, he's a high-end RB2.

Steelers

Implied Team Total: 19.25

By the season-long numbers, Aaron Rodgers looks pretty washed. He hasn't been much better than Russell Wilson, and he's been slightly worse than Geno Smith.

Rodgers hasn't been poor in every game, though. He was efficient but inconsistent against the Jets, then just straight up bad against the Seahawks, and then actually pretty solid against the Patriots.

Rodgers' somewhat volatile profile makes him more interesting from a fantasy perspective. Hunting for spike weeks is an important part of the process.

But in this matchup, Rodgers' floor looks more significant than his ceiling.

Rodgers has been protected well this year, with the Steelers allowing pressure at the fourth-lowest rate and quick pressure at the 11th-lowest. That's a very good thing... because Rodgers has been awful when pressured. The Steelers have the second-worst EPA per dropback under pressure.

The problem this week, though, is that the Vikings' defense is built to generate pressure. Brian Flores is a blitz maestro. The Vikings have the second-highest blitz rate and, as measured by EPA, are the most effective blitzing defense in the NFL.

With the Vikings generating pressure at the second-highest rate and quick pressure at the fifth-highest rate, this looks like a brutal matchup for a 41-year-old pressure-sensitive QB.

Part of the issue for Rodgers here is that at baseline he's playing like a QB under pressure. He has a very quick 2.61-second time to throw, just a 7% deep throw rate, a shallow 5.4 aDOT, and a woof-inducing 2.9 average depth of completion. Rodgers' average throw is traveling 4 yards short of the sticks; Joe Flacco (-2.8) and Kyler Murray (-3.1) are the only other QBs below -2.5.

This is a conservative profile. Under pressure... what's the pivot?

If you want to hit the snooze button instead of watching this game, Rodgers might not mind.

Then again, this game could be the snooze button.

The Vikings have been a run-first team this year, and last week, the Steelers returned to Arthur Smith's comfort zone.

Pittsburgh was run-heavy both overall and on 1st-and-10, showing a clear prioritization of the run.

And while the Vikings' pass defense looks downright terrifying, their run defense isn't scary.

Last week we saw Jaylen Warren take over the Steelers backfield, posting elite usage across the board.

Kenny Gainwell plummeted into handcuff territory.

With Warren questionable with a knee injury, and Arthur Smith involved in personnel decisions, do I trust this to hold? I do not.

However, we should be able to count on Warren being in a clear lead-back role this week, even if he's not in a true workhorse role like he was against the Patriots.

More importantly, Warren's receiving role is starting to look like a major source of fantasy value. And Warren's is rewarding Rodgers' faith in him with 3.55 YPRR, which leads all RBs.

Even if Warren's snap share drops here, he's a safe bet for targets, as Rodgers searches for ways to get the ball out even quicker. Warren is a high-end RB2.

Likewise, Jonnu Smith could see a boost here. He's produced 26% of his yards on screens this year, a very high rate for a tight end.

And Smith's aDOT is...

Wait for it...

0.8.

Arthur Smith watched Mike McDaniel's plan for Smith last year and thought, "pretty weird that he's using him so traditionally."

Smith is a TE2 as a bet on gadget usage. Pat Freiermuth is a premium punt option.

Speaking of low aDOTs, DK Metcalf was at just 4.1 in Week 1 and 7.0 in Week 2. Against the Patriots, he jumped to 14.4. But the Patriots have one of the least scary secondaries in the league. The Vikings' defense just scored more points (14) than the Texans' offense is averaging (12.7). Metcalf's deep targets are waiting for him back stateside. He's a WR3.