Five Rookies I Can't Stop Drafting on DraftKings
With rookies reporting to training camp, it seems like a good time to check in on some of my biggest targets in the rookie class so far. I'll explain why I think they have been such strong picks to this point, and what I'm looking out for in training camp to either revise my position or double down.
Bhayshul Tuten
Bhayshul Tuten's landing spot in Jacksonville created early May hype. But that train derailed in mid-May when Liam Cohen noted that he fumbled in practice, which "kinda stands out."
Best Ball drafters did not take that in stride, and Tuten's ADP has damn near been in freefall since then. His DraftKings ADP is at just 144 overall.
This is despite lukewarm reports on the Jaguars' incumbent RBs, Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby.
In Tuten's prospect profile, I noted that fumbling was a red flag. He had concerning ball security issues at Virginia Tech, although he notably had zero fumbles in 253 career carries at North Carolina A&T.
More importantly, I think best ball drafters are too focused on a real (but probably overblown) red flag and not focused enough on the many strengths in Tuten's profile. This is a game where we need to hit on upside, and Tuten's upside is extremely underrated.
In college, Tuten combined high-end breakaway ability with tackle-breaking ability. That explosiveness should translate, given his 4.32 speed and elite jumping ability. And despite weighing 206 pounds, Tuten was a workhorse who handled a ridiculous 94% of Virginia Tech's backfield workload in 2024. Tuten is also versatile, sporting a solid 1.27 career YPRR on a healthy 15 routes per game.
This is a player who profiles as a potential three-down starter.
Training Camp Hopes
Heading into camp, it's fair to say that the Jaguars are holding an open competition for their starting RB. SI's John Shipley put it like this on July 1, "With a new coaching staff and entire regime now in place, the Jaguars' evaluation of the running back room is likely starting from scratch."
So... if I'm being honest, it's hard not to dream on what a strong training camp could mean for Tuten. We could be looking at an immediate contributor who carves out a bigger role, and eventually a starting role, as the season progresses. He's an obvious pick for this year's Bucky Irving, and due to a May fumble, he's not much more expensive than Irving was, despite having a clearer path to early-season rookie value.
Training Camp Fears
If Tuten continuously puts the ball on the ground or completely flubs pass protection assignments, that'll make me pretty nervous. However, I refuse to freak out over minor rookie growing pains.
The bigger concern for Tuten is that either Etienne or Bigsby has strong camps. Travis Etienne had an impressive run of form in early 2023, and it wouldn't be shocking for him to recapture a more explosive version of himself this summer. As an experienced veteran, Etienne is also a more natural fit than Tuten for pure passing situations. Even if Tuten impresses, Etienne is likely to start out as the long-down-and-distance / two-minute-drill RB. That sets up Etienne for a valuable role if he can add meaningful rushing work. If he can secure early down work with a strong camp, it could seriously delay Tuten's emergence.
Bigsby's path is a bit different. As a pure two-down runner, he's more likely to stand out when the pads come on. But if he runs as hard as he did last year, we could be looking at the Jaguars' lead rusher for the second year in a row. And if Bigsby operates as the lead runner, Tuten's path will be considerably more narrow. He'll likely to limited to rotational work early in the season, and could potentially function as a contingent play in his rookie season.
DraftKings Value
One of the nice things about Tuten's DraftKings ADP is that he's already priced like he's a contingent bet. He's going behind Rachaad White and just ahead of Ray Davis and Trey Benson. While it's possible all three backs have a role out of the gate, contingent value is the main driver of their ADPs. With Tuten, we get a bit less contingent value but a substantially stronger path to value without an injury ahead of him.
We also get the uncertainty around Tuten's talent level, which at this price is a big plus. The fundamental point being... Tuten might be a star. A star who fumbles too much? Maybe. But his prospect profile is much stronger than we usually see from a Round 4 RB—not surprising given how strong this RB class was. Training camp will be crucial, but he's starting out roughly 20 picks undervalued.
Luther Burden
Entering 2024, Luther Burden looked like a future 1st-round NFL draft pick. As a 20-year-old sophomore, the former 5-star recruit put up an 85/1,205/9 receiving line for a 37% dominator rating and 3.20 yards per team attempt.
Burden excelled with the ball in his hands, which he backed up with a 4.41 40 at the Combine.
But Burden's profile has some concerning red flags as well, which is why he fell to Round 2.
In his final season, Burden still dominated the Missouri offense with a 38% dominator rating, but his production and efficiency cratered, turning in just 666 receiving yards in 12 games with a weak 1.80 YPTA. There were also some concerning reports about Burden's professionalism, which likely contributed to his draft day fall to pick 39.
Training Camp Hopes
Burden dealt with a minor soft tissue issue in minicamp, which Ben Johnson did not take kindly to. However, that won't ultimately matter if Burden has a strong training camp.
First and foremost, I want to hear that Burden is out there and at full speed. Because if he is, Burden should be able to push for an immediate role.
D.J. Moore is coming off just 1.44 YPRR in a season where he literally quit on the team. The new regime has already told him that they won't tolerate last year's body language and they're likely to expect much more efficient play from the veteran.
Rome Odunze has drawn praise from his new coaches, but with just 1.18 YPRR as a rookie, it's not clear that he offers difference-making fantasy ability. Given the context, last year's inefficiency isn't the end of the world. DeAndre Hopkins posted a similarly poor 1.28 YPRR before vaulting to superstardom in Year 2. Those type of leaps happen. But it also looks possible that Odunze ends up as a Rashod Bateman level WR — a receiver with meaningful real life value, but one who doesn't move the needle in fantasy.
Burden's path to targets looks crowded, but it's also very possible that he is the most talented and fantasy-friendly WR on the Bears roster. As Ben Johnson looks for a No. 1 WR, Burden has a huge opportunity in camp.
Early in the season, my hope is that Burden is just on the field a lot. But with a strong camp, Burden could put himself on track to be the Bears' top target by the end of the year.
Training Camp Fears
There's a reason that fantasy players freaked out when Burden missed time in minicamp—it fed into existing fears that he wasn't capable of capitalizing on his immense talent, that he would disappoint his coaches enough to shift them to other priorities.
Personally, I think that reaction was overblown, and I've been scooping Burden relentlessly at his reduced price. However, I do acknowledge that he comes with serious risk. A bad training camp – one where he doesn't have a full handle on the offense, or is competing with Devin Duvernay for reps, or isn't on the field at all – could lead to a redshirt rookie year.
DraftKings Value
DraftKings best ball drafters are out on Burden (141 ADP). He's going 45 picks after Emeka Egbuka (96), and a full round later than Tre Harris (125). He's barely ahead of Kyle Williams (148). This puts Burden in a spot where he really only needs a few big games at the end of the year to return value in best ball tournaments.
I think he's capable of quite a bit more than that, but even if you disagree, it's hard to see how Burden isn't a clear-cut target at this ADP. Even if he turns out to be Quentin Johnston... he's only going eight picks ahead of Quentin Johnston. There's not a lot of downside left at this price.
R.J. Harvey
Before the NFL draft, R.J. Harvey was one of my favorite dart throw at RB. But I considered him a dart throw, the type of back who would be an exciting upside swing as a Round 3-5 NFL draft pick. I never expected him to land in Round 2 with a clear path to a starting role.
Of course, Harvey's path to playing time became murkier after the draft, with the Broncos bringing in J.K. Dobbins. Weighing 205 pounds and profiling as more of an explosion back than an every-down workhorse, Harvey's ADP has dipped since.
However, I think our initial excitement for his landing spot is important to keep in view. Harvey is highly athletic and explosive, with impressive receiving ability. He's exactly the type of back we would expect to excel with Sean Payton, even without a heavy rushing workload.
Training Camp Hopes
I want to hear that Harvey looks explosive in camp, of course. But more than anything, I want to hear that he is excelling as a runner. And if we get positive reports on his pass blocking, wheels up. In other words, I don't really care if Harvey is being used in the slot or split out wide, etc. He's going to run circles around Dobbins as a receiver, we already know that. My worry isn't that he won't see targets; it's that he'll only see targets.
If Harvey and Dobbins look to be forming a 1/2 punch on the ground, his outlook for the year will be extremely promising. And while I epect Dobbins to play as a pass protector, it would also be nice if Harvey doesn't look lost there.
Training Camp Fears
I'm sure we'll hear reports about Harvey being used creatively as a receiver, and those aren't bad on their own. But if those aren't paired with reports that he's holding his own as a runner, we could be looking at less of a young Alvin Kamara and more of a Jaleel McLaughlin+. That's obviously not what we want with a top 75 pick.
DraftKings Value
Harvey's ADP has dropped into the 6th round (65), and he's been flipped by TreVeyon Henderson. In individual drafts, it's not uncommon to see Harvey drop to the late 6th. At this point, I'm beginning to push my advantage by breaking ties to WRs in Round 5, hoping for Harvey or Henderson in Round 6. While I don't expect Harvey to have total control of the Broncos' backfield, I think there's a strong chance he gets more than enough work to be a fantasy star. Ultimately, we're talking about an explosive pass-catching RB playing for Sean Payton behind one of the league's best offensive lines. Even though I also consider Dobbins a target, I can't stop drafting Harvey as his reduced 6th-round price.
Brashard Smith
Brashard Smith is a converted WR, turned pass-catching RB. It was very fun to see him land on the Chiefs, where his skill set could be fully utilized. It's also fun to see how complete Smith's skill set is.
Smith is not a scat back. He's only 194 pounds, but is coming off a final season rushing line of 235/1,332/14, adding 39/327/4 through the air. Handling 82% of SMU's backfield workload, Smith was a true workhorse back.
Smith was also an impressive breakaway runner, while also delivering very efficiently as a receiver with 1.69 YPRR in 2024 (1.90 career).
Smith profiles as an explosive play threat who can handle real RB responsibilities. Considering how lackluster the Chiefs rushing attack was last year, he offers some much needed juice.
Smith fell to the 7th round of the draft, which is a major red flag. However, his kick returning ability could help him avoid the fate of most final round draft picks. On 49 career kicks, Smith averaged 24.4 yards per return with one TD. He was genuinely excellent in the return game.
Training Camp Hopes
Heading into camp, it looks likely that Smith will make the roster. But we really need him to consolidate that position and beat out Eli Mitchell.
Hopefully, Smith will flash enough in the return game to earn a role there. Not only would that secure a roster spot, it would keep him active on game days.
Ideally, Smith's strong camp is paired with underwhelming results from Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. The veterans will lead the way early in the season, but we want Andy Reid thinking about Smith as he looks for ways to add more pop to the run game.
Training Camp Fears
In many ways, the Chiefs are an exciting landing spot for Smith. But from a special teams perspective, it's not ideal. Nikko Remigio is a great kick returner and could block Smith's path there. If so, he would need to earn his spot purely as a running back.
Given the complexity of the Andy Reid offense, it wouldn't be that surprising for Smith to end up on the practice squad with a bad camp.
DraftKings Value
With an ADP of 212, Smith is truly free on DraftKings. And with 20 rounds to work with, I'm more willing to take on the risk in his profile. As a pass-catching RB, who has upside to eventually earn a 1A-type role... on the Chiefs, we could be talking about one of the best picks on the board. The upside is worth the risk.
Harold Fannin
Sometimes when I do my Harold Fannin spiel on a podcast, I can see my co-host(s) thinking, "is this a bit?" Now, to be fair, I have done bits about Fannin – namely, making fun of the scouts who can't get over his duck-footed gate. But my Fannin enthusiasm is quite genuine.
Brock Bowers peaked with an impressive 2.23 yards per team attempt at Georgia. Rob Gronkowski peaked at 2.28. Harold Fannin hit 2.30... for his career. He peaked at an insane 3.70.
Bowers peaked at 72 receiving yards per game as a true junior. Also a true junior, Fannin average 67 receiving yards... after the catch; he averaged 120 receiving yards per game in 2024.
It's hard to overstate how much of a true receiver Fannin is compared to the typical tight end prospect. Fannin posted 1,555 receiving yards last year, with his next closest teammate at just 574, and third closest at 349. Fannin was truly the engine of an entire passing game. Sure, that passing game was the MAC's Bowling Green's. But we're still talking about the most productive and efficient FBS tight end we've ever seen.
Fannin also landed early Round 3 draft capital, which, given some scouting reservations about his NFL fit, is pretty damn bullish. Other TEs in the big WR mold, like Mark Andrews, Jimmy Graham, Jonnu Smith, and Jordan Reed, have emerged from Round 3.
Training Camp Hopes
In theory, Fannin has to compete with David Njoku for playing time. But, does he really? Njoku is going to play traditional inline TE, while Fannin is more likely to operate as a big slot WR.
So far, we've heard reports that Cedric Tillman is the clear-cut WR2, and after that, who knows? More of that, please. I want the Browns to see 2TE sets as a winning path for them this year, and for players like Diontae Johnson and Jamari Thrash to have quiet camps.
It's also important that Fannin looks capable as a run blocker. The Browns won't need him to play inline much, but he can't be a liability in the run game, or they'll lose versatility out of 12 personnel. What's the point of going heavy if you can't run the ball? But Fannin was a capable run blocker in college. If he can handle move-TE blocking assignments, he'll have a path to a part-time receiving role on a team without a ton of target competition.
Training Camp Fears
The Browns QB situation is, obviously, pretty dire. If Joe Flacco looks washed, Kenny Pickett looks like Kenny Pickett, and the rookie QBs aren't ready, Cleveland could look primed for a rough start to the season. This is even more true with Quinshon Judkins headed for a multi-game suspension. It's very possible that this is just an offense to avoid this year, with that fact becoming evident well ahead of time.
It's also possible that Fannin just isn't able to earn more than a rotational role, that he – like Trey McBride behind Zach Ertz – just doesn't get much run behind a capable veteran. If the Browns are running a lot of 11 personnel throughout camp, that could point to a redshirt rookie year for Fannin. In this scenario, it's possible that Fannin takes over for David Njoku – an impending free agent – in 2026. But that won't help our best ball teams in 2025.
DraftKings Value
Fannin is exactly the type of pick that DraftKings' 20-round format was made for. His specialization as a true receiver, combined with Round 3 draft capital, should create a least a bit of a floor for him. By that, I mean, he's going to play some. We might only be talking about a couple hundred yards and a couple TDs, but if healthy, it's hard to see how Fannin doesn't have at least some kind of rotational role. And in a format with locked rosters, that production could come in handy at tight end, when added for zero cost.
Of course, if Fannin becomes the Browns' new Harrison Bryant, I'll be devastated. But I think he's unlikely to be a true zero.
And then, I know he's a tweener from the MAC... but what if he's a difference-making YAC producer from the slot? Because his college profile points to that as a very strong possibility. With very little downside risk at his 229 ADP, it's worth taking Fannin seriously.
Pat Kerrane
Pat Kerrane
