London Game Walkthrough Week 4: London Bridge Has Fallen Downs
Welcome to the Week 4 London Game Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for a glorious international football game.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Colts vs. Commanders, 9:30 AM
Colts
Implied Team Total: 26
Daniel Jones has had an unimpressive start to the season. He ranks just QB30 in EPA per game and QB23 in success rate.
In fairness to Jones, though, he has faced three solid defenses, including a Houston defense that was expected to be elite before the season began.
Jones has also been operating with Alec Pierce on most of his dropbacks.
Pierce was expected to be the focal point of the Colts' passing attack. Whether that meant he would truly dominate targets was an open debate, but there was no doubt that Pierce was critical to the operation by credibly threatening deep, opening up the offense for Jonathan Taylor and the Colts' underneath receivers.
Jonathan Taylor certainly appears to be missing Pierce. His rushing efficiency has cratered since last season, when he finished RB5 in rushing yards over expected per game.
With Pierce no longer occupying a safety, Taylor could really use a soft matchup.
Unfortunately, he doesn't get that here. The Commanders have been effective against the run so far.
If anything, this looks like a matchup where the Colts will want to prioritize the pass. All three Commanders opponents have posted an above-average pass rate, and both the Cowboys and Seahawks were aggressively pass-heavy.
The good news for Taylor is that he's not a zero in the passing game. As part of his position-leading 89% snap share, he has a 12% target share. It was the same story last season, when he led the NFL with an 82% snap share and delivered an 11% target share. His receiving role isn't driving his value by any means, but it should keep him involved if the Colts pivot to the air.
It's also important to note that the Colts are unlikely to be excited about the prospect of pass-heavy playcalling. They have not embraced the pass so far this year and are now down both Alec Pierce and Keenan Allen. It's hard to see them abandoning the run without a fight. This is a tough run defense, but the Colts are going to test it.
As a bet on Taylor seeing his third elite workload of the season, he is a high-end RB1.
Taylor gets a tough matchup on the ground here, but Daniel Jones gets a legitimately soft matchup. He should be able to keep the chains moving against a Commanders pass defense that is consistently allowing chunk gains while also giving up explosive plays.
Unfortunately, it won't just be Alec Pierce missing from the lineup in London. Keenan Allen has also been ruled out with a groin injury.
As a result, wide receiver volume is very likely to flow through Josh Downs. The Commanders will know this, though. They have been aggressive about double coverage. Like against the Texans, Downs can expect plenty of defensive attention.
Ramped-up double coverage is an unfortunate consequence of the Colts' WR injuries. But, from the perspective of Downs' projection, it's a tradeoff worth making. The Commanders will be focused on shutting Downs down because the Colts really have no choice here—they need to feed Downs targets.
And Downs is a very talented WR who has mostly been held back by a lack of opportunity prior to this season. Opportunity is waiting for him in London. Downs is a low-end WR1.
Keenan Allen's absence should theoretically open up routes and targets for another WR. He was running a lot of routes and had an important role in the offense.
But the fact of the matter is that the Colts are kind of out of WRs. Following Pierce's injury, Laquon Treadwell was already in a full-time role.
The Colts traded for Darius Slayton last week, but he was inactive against the Texans. It's possible he makes his Colts debut, but regarding his role, your guess is as good as mine.
Ashton Dulin missed last week with an ankle injury but was a full practice participant to close the week. He'll likely see work. But it's not clear that really matters.
Deion Burks ran five routes against the Texans (and one the week before). But the 7th-round rookie hasn't been targeted yet.
Most likely, the Colts end up using a rotation at the No. 3 WR spot. And, ultimately, of the non-Downs WRs, Treadwell looks most likely to benefit from Allen's absence. We can count on him to play, at least. He's a dart throw.
Of course, although Tyler Warren isn't a WR, he is first and foremost a receiving weapon. And, like with Downs, it's hard to see how the Colts don't feed him targets in a good passing matchup with Allen out.
So far, Warren has been off to a slow start from a yardage perspective.
However, Warren has been heavily targeted over the last two weeks and is coming off a season-high 93% route participation. He'll have plenty of opportunity this week and is an elite TE1.
