Monday Matchup: Vikings at Bears
Monday Matchup by Chinatown
Chicago, MNF, and Settle-Up Day
Monday Night Football in Chicago has always been more than a broadcast. For decades, it was the city’s neon confession booth—the last hand dealt before Tuesday morning’s reckoning. The weekend belonged to the NFL slate, but Monday was the hinge. By kickoff, the South Side corner joints and West Side taverns had already carried three days of action, and the game under the lights offered one last chance at absolution. But lose on Monday and you don’t just lose the game; a final, losing verdict was rendered for the week.
Soldier Field glowed on the lakefront like a lighthouse for the damned. The bookies—men who never missed a Bears snap but missed even fewer debts—called Tuesday “Settle-up Day,” and every bettor knew the liturgy. Some walked in the light, buying breakfasts and picking up tabs. Others carried silence, their debts written not in ledgers but in the soft arithmetic of ribs and kneecaps.
This was the unspoken Chicago economy of football: a game stretched beyond its scoreboard into basements, back rooms, and whispered threats on Tuesday mornings. Monday Night Football wasn’t just a capstone; it was the last cigarette before the lights went out. One last drive, one more kick, and a man might buy himself another dawn—or learn what it means to be overextended in a city that always collects.
The city’s first MNF of 2025 draws the Vikings down to the lake, a hardened playoff juggernaut led by Brian Flores’ blitzing creed. The Bears send out Caleb Williams, a second-year quarterback still more prayer than prophecy, with Ben Johnson scripting mercy into quick passes and screens. Chicago knows this ritual well: the scoreboard as exoneration or indictment, the night itself a balance sheet. Once more, Soldier Field is a confession booth, and the Bears are left to decide if they’ll light candles for redemption—or for last rites.
The 2025 season’s first Monday Night Football matchup pits two NFC North rivals on divergent trajectories. The Vikings enter as a seasoned playoff team built around a smothering defense, while the Bears are rebooting under new head coach Ben Johnson with their hopeful franchise quarterback in Year 2.
Vikings
Implied Team Total: 22.5 points
The Vikings rode an elite defense to a 14-3 record last year, and that unit remains their backbone. By virtually any metric, Minnesota’s defense was dominant in 2024—surrendering the lowest EPA per play of any team (ranking #1 overall in defensive efficiency) and was especially stout against the run (leading the league) while still ranking #2 overall in dropback EPA allowed. This was a big-play unit as well, tying for the NFL lead with 33 takeaways and recording 49 sacks (4th-most).
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores accomplished this with an aggressive scheme—the Vikings blitzed a league-high 40.6% of the time—sending pressure from all angles. That pass-rush firepower should be on full display against Chicago. Minnesota added veteran interior linemen Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave in the offseason to further bolster a front that already featured edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel (who combined for 23.5 sacks last year). In short, this defense is loaded and capable of taking over games. Don’t be surprised if they stack the box to stifle the run and then unleash blitzes to rattle Williams into mistakes.
Offensively, Minnesota begins a new era at quarterback. J.J. McCarthy—last year’s 10th overall pick—will make his first NFL start after missing his entire rookie year following a pre-season knee injury. The Vikings will undoubtedly ask McCarthy to play point guard rather than hero, especially given the hostile road environment. Fortunately for McCarthy, he’s surrounded by a strong supporting cast and an excellent offensive line. In fact, Minnesota’s offensive line was ranked 7th in PFF’s 2025 preseason rankings, so the Vikings expect to protect their young QB well. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw is back healthy, and the team invested in upgrades at guard/center this offseason.
Minnesota’s stout line should pave the way for a run-heavy game plan to ease McCarthy in, which means feeding Aaron Jones early and often. Jones is coming off a 1,546-yard season (with 7 TDs), showing little decline in explosiveness at 31. He ranked 11th in the NFL in touches per game (18.8) in 2024, and remains a dynamic outside runner and receiving threat. This matchup plays to his strengths: the Bears’ run defense was gashed frequently in 2024, ranking 28th in rush EPA allowed. Minnesota will likely test that soft interior by establishing Jones on early downs and using play-action to give McCarthy safe throwing windows.
When McCarthy does drop back, his first read will most frequently be Justin Jefferson. The superstar wideout is at the peak of his powers—posting gaudy receiving lines in all four of his NFL seasons. Last year, Jefferson saw 9.1 targets per game (8th-most in the NFL), and that volume could tick even higher to start 2025.
That’s because Minnesota will be without WR Jordan Addison, who is serving a 3-game suspension. In Addison’s absence, the Vikings welcomed 35-year-old Adam Thielen out of quasi-exile to fill the WR2 role. Thielen isn’t the Pro Bowler he once was, but he’s far from washed—last season he earned a PFF receiving grade on par with younger standouts like Jameson Williams. Thielen’s savvy route running and chemistry with the organization make him a reliable chain-mover, even if he’s likely to see only 4-6 targets.
Add in Pro Bowl TE T.J. Hockenson, now over a year removed from his ACL tear, and McCarthy has plenty of trustworthy options on short and intermediate routes. Hockenson quietly ranked 2nd among all tight ends in targets (124) and receptions (95) in 2023, so expect him to be heavily involved on third downs and in the red zone.
Overall, the Vikings’ plan will be to play efficient, mistake-free offense: lean on the ground game, pepper Jefferson and Hockenson with high-percentage throws, and let their defense handle the rest. If successful, this approach will allow Minnesota to control the clock and the tempo on Monday night.
