Monday Night Walkthrough Week 4: Penix on the Rise
Welcome to the Week 4 Monday Night Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the fourth glorious football Monday of 2026.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Falcons at Saints, 8:15 PM
Falcons
Implied Team Total: 22.5
Before the season, imagine I told you a Falcons QB would beat the Packers with a 2.19-second time to throw, a 68% first-read attempt rate, and just an 8% deep pass rate.
I don't think you would have been surprised to hear those numbers... just that it wasn't Tua Tagovailoa playing like that (and also you would have been surprised that the Falcons won).
Of course, those numbers actually belonged to Michael Penix, who was impressively efficient while playing point guard against Green Bay.
If Penix is going to operate as Tua-with-an-arm, I'm not sure that's actually a bad thing. His Week 3 playstyle certainly looks capable of punishing a defense that consistently surrenders chunk gains through the air... which is exactly what he gets this week.
The Saints' pressure numbers are also poor. In his second game in the Stefanski offense, I would expect Penix to slow down at least a bit, taking advantage of additional time in the pocket.
Hopefully, the Falcons relax a bit this week as well. Against the Packers, they pounded the rock, posting a -5% PROE. At first glance, this actually represents them opening up the offense after absurdly conservative game plans built around Cooper Rush.
However, the Falcons had just a 46% expected pass rate last week. The fact that they were still able to pass 5% less than that in a win is genuinely impressive. They were truly committed to running the ball.
This week, though, the Falcons know they finally have a QB who can play. And they're playing a Saints defense that hasn't been consistently terrible but also hasn't given opposing QBs serious trouble this year, and just allowed high-end efficiency from Kirk Cousins.
To be clear, I do expect the Falcons to lean on the run here from a pass rate perspective. Even if they operate in negative game script, I would be surprised if they post a 65%+ pass rate—because the Saints are also bad at defending the run.
Bijan Robinson is the engine of the Falcons offense. Penix's return only made that more clear, with Robinson posting an absurd 28 expected points against the Falcons... which he then easily cleared.
However, Robinson doesn't need the Falcons to be an ultra-conservative offense to smash. Arguably, he's better off if they open things up a bit. Even with the coaching changes, his receiving role is truly elite. Robinson looks game-script-proof as well as profiling as an elite talent in a good matchup. He's an elite RB1.
Brian Robinson is coming off his best game of the season, but he was still in an overflow rushing role. If the Falcons pound the rock as much as they did against the Packers, then Robinson could get in the end zone again. But if they pivot to more of a run-first than truly run-heavy game plan, Robinson's lack of a receiving role makes him pretty thin, even as a short-slate TD bet.
Ultimately, I do expect the Falcons to operate with more balance this week, to show more confidence in Penix in his second start, even as they maintain their run-first identity.
That should help Drake London, who is coming off absolutely absurd efficiency against the Packers (7.46 YPRR). I, for one, would like to see what happens with more dropback volume.
London was in Cooper Rush / Jack Strand purgatory to open the season, yet still profiles as a high-end WR. He's an underrated talent who could finally be unlocked if Penix is able to take a step forward in the new offense. In a good matchup here, London is a WR1.
Kyle Pitts is functionally the No. 2 WR, but didn't show a connection with Penix last week. He wasn't able to draw targets or deliver efficiently on the looks he got.
Normally, I'd have some serious concerns about this profile three games into a coaching regime change. Is Pitts just not a part of the new offense?
Sometimes, panic is warranted. But for this kind of panicky analysis, I think it's more accurate to say that we have one truly concerning data point. The first two games definitely aren't good, but it's hard to take them fully at face value.
Pitts had a solid 18% TPRR in Week 2, which wasn't far behind Drake London... who also required Penix at QB to hit 10+ PPR points.
Pitts' role in the offense looks concerning, no doubt. But I'm not willing to throw in the towel just yet. He's a TE2.
Jahan Dotson is operating as the No. 2 WR, but, like Pitts hasn't delivered any efficiency or production this year.
With Dotson, this is basically what we expected, though. Penix raises his ceiling... because he raises the ceiling of the entire offense. But Dotson is still just a deep dart throw.
If the Saints push the Falcons into 11-personnel, it's not even clear that Dotson is that much better of a bet than Olamide Zaccheaus. Certainly, I would bet on Dotson to run more routes. But Zaccheaus looks just as (un)reliable of a target earner when actually on the field.
