Monday Night Walkthrough Week 6: By George!
Welcome to the Week 6 Monday Night Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the sixth glorious football Monday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Commanders at 49ers, 8:15 PM
Commanders
Implied Team Total: 22.5
Jayden Daniels returned from a dislocated elbow against the Giants. And his play was fairly encouraging. Daniels actually turned in negative EPA as a passer. Not great. But he posted 9.8 EPA as a runner, which we love to see. Clearly, even after his injury, he's not afraid to run.
Daniels' efficiency this season has been solid. But he's been inconsistent, ranking just QB30 in success rate.
That inconsistency makes some sense when you look at how he's playing. He has a long time to throw, is taking on pressure, and is throwing deep. He's big play hunting.
Daniels now gets a 49ers defense that has been very solid this year. However, they will probably be without Nick Bosa, which is a big loss. Bosa ranks EDGE24 in pressures per pass rush snap, and without Bosa, the 49ers' pass rush looks like a weakness.
However, the 49ers have been strong in coverage, with Renardo Green standing out as one of the top cover corners in the league this year, ranking CB8 in coverage grade and CB17 in yards allowed per coverage snap.
Daniels could struggle for passing efficiency here. And while his rushing ability is nice for his own fantasy production, it doesn't help his weapons.
Passing volume is also a pretty big concern. Notably, the 49ers look like a run funnel.
Every 49ers opponent has posted a negative PROE against them.
The 49ers aren't bad against the run overall, but they have a poor success rate. And with the 49ers playing the pass effectively, opponents have been opting to run more than game script would indicate.
The Commanders look like the type of team that will want to follow suit. They have been conservative, particularly on 1st down.
The Commanders have yet to post a positive PROE this year and have been very conservative on 1st-and-10 in all three of Jayden Daniels' starts.
The silver lining is that the Commanders are 7.5-point road underdogs. Their expected pass rate should be pretty high here. We've seen that dynamic play out consistently this season as well. The Commanders are passing less than expected, but have still had healthy pass rates because of the game script.
Generally, though, playing from behind is not ideal. We want QBs who score points, not chase them.
To that end, having Stefon Diggs available would be a big boost. Diggs was limited on Friday and looks to have a real chance of suiting up. Diggs operates primarily out of the slot; matchup him up with Upton Stout, who has been a major liability in coverage, ranking CB101 in yards allowed per coverage snap. And Diggs has been the Commanders' best target earner this year, outpacing Terry McLaurin. Diggs is a WR3 if he suits up.
McLaurin is in for tougher CB matchups than Diggs, but he's set for strong target volume if Diggs sits out. In that scenario, I'm treating McLaurin as a high-end WR3. He drops to a WR4 if Diggs suits up.
With McLaurin in the lineup last week, Treylon Burks still posted strong route participation. He didn't do much with it, though.
For Antonio Williams, it was the same story.
Diggs is more likely to directly replace Williams, taking over in the slot. However, Burks is really just a field stretcher, and the Commanders will likely deploy a split between him and Williams if Diggs goes. Both players are pretty unexciting if Diggs plays, even on short slates.
However, if Diggs doesn't play, this sets up as a decent matchup for Antonio Williams. Williams has a strong 21% TPRR, with an impressive 16% first-read target rate. The Commanders have been trying to get him the ball.
With Diggs out, Williams shapes us as a WR5, with Burks as a dart throw.
At tight end, Chig Okonkwo's playing time remains a limiting factor. Like he was in Tennessee, Okonkwo is profiling as a part-time player.
With middling efficiency, Okonkwo is just a TE2.
If the Commanders attempt to lean on the run game here, they may not like the results. Jacory Croskey-Merritt is dealing with a groin injury and missed practice on Thursday and Friday. He could still return to practice Saturday, but right now his status is looking genuinely questionable.
And it's not like Bill has been a good runner this year. Frankly, he's been terrible.
Croskey-Merritt is coming off his best game of the season. But in that game, he wasn't targeted and saw just 37% of carries.
If Croskey-Merritt is out, Rachaad White will likely take over lead back duties.
Austin Ekeler will likely have a role, but he's been limited with a chest injury and would probably be in a supporting role.
Unfortunately, White has also been a very poor runner this year.
If the Commanders want to lean on the run as a means of limiting possessions, I guess I get that. But they'll probably do more to shorten their own possessions than actually rob Brock Purdy of scoring opportunities. Hopefully, they'll be game to play at least somewhat in line with game script.
And if Croskey-Merritt ends up missing, a pass-first approach actually suits their backfield. Both White and Ekeler are receiving specialists, as is Jeremy McNichols, who looks likely to be activated from IR this week.
If Bill plays, both he and White are RB4s. If JCM is out, White would become a high-end RB3.