Monday Walkthrough Week 2: How the West Was Won
Welcome to the Week 2 Monday Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the second glorious football Monday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
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Buccaneers at Texans, 7 PM
Chargers at Raiders, 10 PM
Buccaneers at Texans, 7 PM
Buccaneers
Implied Team Total: 20
The Buccaneers are coming off a dramatic win over the Falcons, with Baker Mayfield hitting rookie Emeka Egbuka for a game-winning TD. Baker threw for three TDs on the day, two of them to Egbuka.
And from an EPA perspective, it was a strong game from Mayfield.
From a success rate standpoint, however, things were shakier. Dating back to last season, Mayfield only has one game with a lower success rate.
Mayfield's completion percentage was just 53%. He frequently threw to his first read, but was very inefficient on those throws, with just a 44% completion percentage and a 5.1 yards per attempt on first read throws.
The good news here is that Mayfield was aggressive, with a 12.5 aDOT on his first reads and 10.2 aDOT overall. It's not like he was missing on a bunch of high percentage throws. He had an inconsistent passing day while attempting to make big plays. And he did make big plays, just not at an especially high rate.
If Mayfield was entering a similar matchup to last week's, I'd be hoping for the Bucs to run back a similar game plan. My money would be on Mayfield connecting at a higher rate, while also setting the offense up for explosives.
But this week, Mayfield gets a Texans defense that looks to have an elite pass rush. The Texans had one of the best pass rushes in the league last year and were able to pressure Matthew Stafford quickly and consistently.
Tampa Bay's game plan will likely incorporate more quick passing this week. And although that isn't necessarily the most exciting thing for Mike Evans, we can expect him to be involved. He had a 33% TPRR on quick passes last week, and was at 28% in 2024, behind only Chris Godwin (31%).
Evans operated as the Bucs' clear No. 1 WR against the Falcons. This matchup creates some difficulties, but the Texans' secondary did not impress last week. Evans has potential to rack up catches here. He's a borderline WR1.
Emeka Egbuka's 4/67/2 receiving line was an awesome way to kick off his career. But he definitely ran hot relative to the underlying stats. In some ways—who cares? Egbuka's role is likely to grow in the coming weeks. If he outperforms his target priority in the meantime, good for him (and us).
But for this week, we should be realistic about where Egbuka is in the target pecking order. Sterling Shepard matched him with a 21% target share and had better per-route target metrics.
Obviously, we're starting Egbuka over Shepard all day. But Egbuka's Week 1 was more of him spiking ahead of schedule than truly breaking out as a reliable fantasy option. He's a WR3 here.
Cade Otton was held without a catch against the Falcons, and his underlying target metrics were brutal. But Otton did run a bunch of routes, which he's reliably done for a while now. He's a TE2.
Facing a strong Texans pass rush, it's possible that the Bucs pivot to the run. In 2024, even with a high-end pass rush and an impressive overall pass defense, the Texans weren't really a run funnel. They were good against the pass and the run, and teams were fairly balanced against them.
This year, it's possible their run defense isn't quite as effective. It wasn't last week, anyway.
The Buccaneers are coming off a 67% pass rate, 4% above their expected 62% rate. That's a clear sign that they're willing to pass.
However, it doesn't mean the Bucs want to run a pass-happy offense every week. On 1st-and-10, they posted a -9% PROE, which is quite conservative. This could be a run-first team that was simply responding (correctly) to an aggressive Week 1 game environment.
Either way, Buck Irving will see plenty of work. Against the Falcons, Irving saw two first-read targets and a screen, and posted a 14% target share. He was a key part of the passing attack and took advantage with a 9-yard TD.
Irving was also heavily involved as a runner, seeing 14 carries to Rachaad White's two. Sean Tucker had just one. With a 76% snap share, it's clear that this is Irving's backfield.
Irving's rushing efficiency wasn't great last week, but he turned in a 54% success rate, which is a strong sign he was executing plays correctly. There will be bigger days ahead. If the Texans' run defense really has taken a step back, this could be one of them. He's an RB1.
Texans
Implied Team Total: 22.5
When Nick Caley took over as Texans offensive coordinator, I'm sure "officially" he had more complicated duties than this... but unofficially his job had to be: make sure C.J. Stroud looks like he did in 2023, not 2024.
So far, Nick is 0-1.
Stroud wasn't awful. He was in the mix with a number of other disappointing veterans in Week 1.
Concerningly, though, when throwing the ball, Stroud seems to have been effectively executing the Caley offense.
He attempted a first read on 65% of his dropbacks (a very high rate) and completed 64% of those passes. But Stroud had just a 7.3 aDOT on those first-read throws and averaged just six yards per attempt. It wasn't a very exciting passing attack.
The Texans also played things conservatively in terms of pass/run split. They had a 67% expected pass rate, the 11th-highest of the week, but they passed just 61% of the time, for a -7% PROE.
Stroud also lost 37 yards on three sacks, which is what really limited his efficiency last week.
Those sacks highlight the fact that Stroud just faced a Rams pass rush that may go down as one of the best in the league. And he was working behind a suspect offensive line. Perhaps the conservative approach—which also prioritized speed, with a 2.65-second time to throw—says more about last week's game plan than who the Texans are at their core.
If so, we could see a more exciting version of the Texans' offense on prime time. They're going against a Buccaneers defense that is far less formidable than the Rams'.
One potential issue here is how Stroud will handle the blitz. He struggled against the blitz last year, finishing QB30 in EPA per blitzed dropback. Even in his breakout rookie season, he was only QB16, and his offensive line has gotten much worse since then.
Although the Bucs didn't blitz at a high rate last week, Todd Bowles has historically brought the heat. Tampa Bay was second in blitz rate last year.
I expect this matchup to inject some life into the Texans' passing game, but that doesn't mean they're going to steamroll the Bucs defense. More likely, they'll be inconsistent, but also significantly more explosive than last week.
One nice thing about the blitz is that when extra defenders are running at the QB, they aren't available for double coverage. Nico Collins should see more one-on-one looks this week, after dealing with a lot of double coverage against the Falcons.
Collins was shut down by the Rams, held to just three receptions for 25 scoreless yards. But, as we'll get to, it's not like anyone else really stepped up. It was just a bad passing day. Collins is still clearly the top option in this offense and is a WR1 this week.
Behind Collins, the Texans rolled out dual rookie blockers. A couple of Olabisi Johnsons we got here.
The WR depth that might actually move the needle for Houston combined for just 79% route participation. Higgins did at last lead the WR group in first-read target rate, targets per route run, and YPRR. The Texans are still working him into a full-time role, but they clearly have a plan for him.
Noel, not so much. It's likely he only played because of Christian Kirk's injury. Kirk looks likely to miss another game this week, but Noel is off the fantasy radar until he shows something. Higgins is a viable dart throw.
At tight end, Dalton Schultz may be in a committee with Cade Stover. And it's not like Stover is just stealing routes; Stover saw a first-read target on 33% of his routes, which led all tight ends. This was the Texans prioritizing a young reserve player when on the field... kind of like a team does when it's working someone into a bigger role. Maybe this was one of the many Week 1 data points that won't mean anything, but personally, I think this was a shot across the bow. Stover is coming for the starting TE job here.
It won't happen this week, though. Schultz should still operate as the 1A tight end in a passing game that should have more juice than last week. He's a low-end TE2.
The Buccaneers were stout against the run last year and held up very well against the Falcons—although they did let up a 50-yard TD reception to Bijan Robinson, which he caught in the backfield. So these numbers probably overstate their ability to stop big plays out of the backfield going forward.
Next week's numbers will also overstate the Bucs run defense. Because, in all likelihood, they will be efficient in preventing rushing production this week.
Ok, that's a bit unfair to Nick Chubb. Chubb was a reliable downhill runner against the Rams. But Chubb handled just 48% of attempts, didn't add any breakaway yardage, and added nothing as a receiver.
Chubb handled 13 carries and was consistent but unexplosive. Dameon Pierce, Woody Marks, and Dare Ogunbowale combined for eight carries. They also combined for a zero percent success rate, with -11 RYOE. Chubb will see enough work to make him a borderline RB3. But this running game needs an incredibly soft matchup to really get going, and it doesn't have that here.
