Monday Walkthrough Week 3: Ravens Take Flight
Welcome to the Week 3 Monday Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the second glorious football Monday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Lions at Ravens, 8:15 PM
Lions
Implied Team Total: 24.5
After Week 1, I felt pretty strongly that the Lions would be fine. They were stifled in the opener, but by an elite Packer defense. And Goff managed things pretty well, given that context.
It turns out I still wasn't bullish enough on their Week 2 rebound potential. They decimated the Bears, with Goff turning in elite efficiency.
Goff now profiles as one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL, much like he did last year.
On Monday, Goff definitely gets a tougher test than in Week 2. But while the Ravens' defense looks solid, it doesn't look as strong as it did last year. Their pass rush, in particular, doesn't look very scary.
Meanwhile, the Lions are protecting Goff well and head into this game with a healthy offensive line.
Goff's efficiency will be important. It's possible we get passing volume in this game. As 4.5-point road underdogs, the Lions may need to air it out to stay competitive.
But Plan A will likely be to attack a Ravens run defense that looks vulnerable through two weeks.
The Lions have been very run heavy through two weeks.
Ultimately, the Lions could be moved off this run-heavy approach. But to begin the game, they're going to try and get Jahmyr Gibbs rolling.
Gibbs' receiving usage has saved his fantasy profile through two weeks; his rushing efficiency has been lacking.
But over his first two seasons, Gibbs flashed true superstar potential; his slow start to the season isn't a big concern. After all, David Mongtomery has struggled as well.
Last year, the Ravens were one of the best run defenses in the entire league. So it's definitely too soon to call this a good matchup for Gibbs, even though the Ravens look weak against the run so far this year.
At the same time, the Lions proved last week that they can put up points with the best of them. And they demonstrated in Week 1 that if struggling to throw the ball downfield, Gibbs will be a key check-down target.
Gibbs is an RB1. Montgomery looks like a TD-dependent RB3.
Even last year, the Ravens' pass rush wasn't great. They ranked just 25th in pressure rate and 29th in pass rush win rate. So this year's weak pass rush numbers aren't a huge surprise.
The potential issue for Goff is that the Ravens cover very well. They rank third in coverage grade. They also double cover at a high rate.
So, Amon-Ra St. Brown can expect plenty of defensive attention this week. He's used to that, of course. But unless the Ravens push this into a shootout, St. Brown could have trouble racking up a ton of receptions. Then again, he remains Goff's locked-in No. 1 option and is a high-end talent. It's not an ideal matchup, but with potential for the game to get fun, St. Brown is a WR1.
Jameson Williams is coming off a 2/108/1 recieiving line on four targtets. And it was definitely nice to see him turn in a strong fantasy performance. But his underlying numbers are pretty concerning. His 8% first-read target rate is especially troubling.
In Week 1, Goff was pushed off his first read at a high rate, attempting a first-read throw on just 40% of his dropbacks. But last week, that number jumped to 66%. Week 2 gave us a much stronger picture of what the Lions are hoping to accomplish on offense. And... it looks like they're still trying to feed Amon-Ra St. Brown, who saw an elite 29% first-read target rate. Williams was at just 14%—exactly in line with his 2024 rate.
This summer, Williams was a major breakout candidate. Some of that hype was driven by his spike week ability on low volume. We got that last week, and we'll see that again this year. But his best path to a true league-winning breakout relies on becoming a bigger priority in the Lions offense. So far, we haven't seen that. He's a WR3.
Through two games, Sam LaPorta has a higher first-read target rate and TPRR than Williams, further undermining the idea that Williams' role is any better than last year.
However, things aren't great for LaPorta, either. He had a 13% first-read target rate with a 21% TPRR in Week 1, as part of a neutered Lions offense that wasn't able to get anything going downfield. With just a 4.9 aDOT in that game, LaPorta's target volume was partially a symptom of a struggling offense.
Then, last week, with the offense humming, he dropped to a 10% first-read target rate and a 19% TPRR. Like Williams, the concern here is that when the offense is cooking, it will usually be flowing through St. Brown.
But LaPorta is running routes at a strong rate, and has a strong TPRR for a tight end. And if he's ultimately a co-No. 2 with Williams—if Williams is the guy from 2024—that will help LaPorta access a ceiling more regularly. He's a TE1.
For showdown purposes, I'll note that Isaac TeSlaa jumped from 7% route participation in Week 1 to 38% in Week 2. Given that St. Brown logged 97% route participation and Williams was at 100%, this looks like a legit bump rather than garbage time usage.
This bump coincided with Kalif Raymond seeing fewer routes.
When on the field, TeSlaa has a 14% first-read target rate, which, hilariously, matches Jameson Williams. Of course, TeSlaa barely plays, and Williams literally hasn't missed a route all year. But the Lions have been looking to get TeSlaa some run in the early going, and he's delivered, with 3.00 YPRR. He's still a long way off from a true fantasy-relevant role, but it's very possible he flips Raymond in route participation this week.
