Monday Walkthrough Week 6: Dollar Dollar Bill
Welcome to the Week 6 Monday Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the sixth glorious football Monday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Bills at Falcons, 7:15 PM
- Bears at Commanders, 8:15 PM
Bills at Falcons, 7:15 PM
Bills
Implied Team Total: 27.25
Through the first four weeks of the season, the Bills were the best rushing offense in the NFL, averaging .09 EPA per rush.
But in Week 5, against an excellent Patriots run defense, the Bills averaged just -0.36 EPA per play, fourth-worst on the week and worse than the Patriots' season-long rate of -0.31, which ranks dead last.
Of course, given that they have Josh Allen at quarterback, the Bills' rushing efficiency isn't the most important factor for their success. Or, at least, it shouldn't be.
But under Joe Brady, the run game has been a crucial component of the Bills' offensive identity.
I'm expecting them to be looking to get back on track against a mediocre Falcons run defense.
And as 4.5-point road favorites, the Bills should be in position to run the ball on a defense that only the Buccaneers have been pass-heavy against.
This sets up as a bounce-back spot for James Cook, whose snap share is up significantly over the last three games.
Cook has been a very impressive runner this year, combining burst and consistency. In a matchup where he should be able to get back on track, he's an RB1.
Cook looks set up for a strong game, but Josh Allen still drives this offense. He'll be going against a much-improved pass rush, but one that the Bills' offensive line should be able to handle.
But the Falcons have also been impressive in coverage and rank among the best pass defenses in the league.
Of course, Allen is arguably the best QB in the league. And even coming off a loss is profiling as an elite QB in the efficiency metrics. Allen ranks QB4 in EPA per game and QB13 in success rate.
With a 27.25 implied team total, there's no reason to worry about Allen here. The bigger issue is figuring out who, outside of Cook, will be putting up points alongside him.
Keon Coleman fell to just 70% route participation last week. His per-route profile isn't bad, but it's not at a level where his limited route participation is irrelevant.
It's a similar story for Khalil Shakir.
For the season, both WRs look remarkably similar. However, Shakir's targets have been stronger over the last two weeks. Considering that he was working back from injury to start the year, Shakir looks like the slightly stronger play. He's a WR3. Coleman is a WR4.
After a career game against the Patriots, Dalton Kincaid leads all TEs in YPRR. He's also popping as a route runner with the best open score at the position.
After dealing with injuries last year, Kincaid looks to be in the midst of a mini breakout.
Unfortunately, though, we're only talking about a mini breakout rather than a full-fledged third-year leap. The reason for that is simple—Kincaid is a part-time player. Even with very strong efficiency in two of his last three games, Kincaid has yet to hit 65%+ route participation in a single game this year.
If the Falcons push the Bills here, Kincaid could turn in another strong game. He genuinely looks like their best receiving weapon. He just isn't a lock to be on the field at a high rate. We need team-level dropback volume.
And unfortunately, Kindcaid plays for a Buffalo team that has been very clear in its desire to prioritize the run game this year.
Kincaid has the per-route profile of an elite TE1... and the route profile of a borderline TE2. Ultimately, I'm willing to bet on a guy earning targets from Josh Allen, even if the floor is lower than it should be. But with Kincaid limited all week by an oblique injury and listed as questionable, he's a low-end TE1.
