Quick Slant: Christmas, pt. 2 - Jettas, with Your Grill So Bright...
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
Gary: (With a slight nod) If I live to be a hundred, which seems optimistic under the circumstances, I doubt I’ll ever forget that snowstorm a few winters back. It arrived politely, then stayed, the way weather does here, until the world nearly misplaced Christmas altogether.
Oh—excuse me. Gary. Yes, I talk. Around here, no one finds that especially remarkable. Nice spot, isn’t it? Folks call it Lake Country, which sounds modest and mostly is. Plenty of trees, long winters, time to think. And Jettas? Well now. Pull up an ice block and get comfortable. This one’s been waiting awhile.
Up at the Eagan training complex—a very serious facility that smells faintly of fresh turf and high expectations—young J.J. was having trouble with the foreman.
“J.J.,” the coach grumbled, irritated, pointing at the whiteboard. “Where are your progressions? You missed the check-down.”
J.J. just stared at his purple cleats. “I don’t want to check down, Coach. I want to dance!”
He did a quick, defiant Griddy right there in the film room.
“J.J. doesn’t want to check down!” the coach moaned. Then he put him out to get some fresh air.
Out in the parking lot snowdrifts, he met T.J., a large, bearded fellow from down Iowa way who viewed winter as "light jacket season." T.J. tossed a prospecting axe into a frozen hashmark, pulled it out, and licked the ice.
“Uff da. Nothing but road salt,” T.J. grumbled. “Still no Silver and Gold. I’ve been digging through this frozen tundra for years looking for the Big Trophy. You look lost, kid. Come along.”
Gary: Now, our heroes had traveled far across the frozen expanse of the NFC North, a curious place some call the Island of Misfit Toys because, despite the right pieces, nobody seems ever actually to win here. There were many strange sights—Soldier Field’s wind-up bear wobbling on icy turf, the Lombardi-less Pack shivering in the snow—but J.J. and T.J. pressed on, undeterred.
Suddenly, the ground trembled, as if the whole tundra had taken a deep, shivery breath. And from the blue Detroit fog loomed a shadow so vast it seemed to swallow the horizon: The Hutchy! Massive, painted for battle, eyes glinting with hunger, he didn’t speak. No, he roared. Each step made the snow quake, each roar made the air shiver.
“Watch out, J.J.! The Hutchy never sleeps when there’s a quarterback in sight!” T.J. warned, springing to action and smashing the ice beneath them so that it drifted off into the lake like a great white raft. And with that, the Hutchy stood at the edge, unable to pursue any longer, and growled so loud they heard it in North Dakota.
Gary: Then it happened. The December Fog. It wasn't just weather; it was the heavy, suffocating mist of sixty years of "almost." It rolled off the Mississippi and settled over the Twin Cities, thick as wool and cold as a forgotten promise. In the huddle, the players couldn't see their own hands. The season was sliding. Hutchy was prowling the perimeter, his roar echoing through the white-out, periodically reinforcing that he had not given up the chase.
"We’re lost," T.J. muttered, wiping frost from his beard. "The Northland is closing in."
But then, a figure emerged from the haze. It was Jettas. He’d always been a bit of a misfit—too thin for the big schools, picked twenty-second by a league that wasn't sure that he could play out wide. He didn't say a word. He just looked at the bank of stadium lights and gave a slow, confident grin.
Suddenly, the world ignited. The light hit his diamond-encrusted grill and shattered into a million blinding silver-and-white beams. The fog didn't just lift—it retreated. The path to the end zone lay open.
Gary: (leaning on his umbrella, a twinkle in his eye) Jettas, with your grill so bright... won't you lead our team tonight?
Guided by that diamond-light, the trio finally reached the towering glass walls of the Great Ice Palace, U.S. Bank Stadium. But there, blocking the final gate, stood the immovable visage of the Hutchy. He was massive now, his blue shadow stretching across the tunnel, fingers digging into the turf as he prepared to swallow the light once and for all.
T.J. gripped his axe, and J.J. found his rhythm, but Jettas simply stepped forward. He didn’t need to outrun the monster; he just had to outshine it. With one last, brilliant flash of that diamond-encrusted grill, the Hutchy blinked—and in that split second, the Misfits were through to the end zone!
Gary: (Closing his umbrella and looking out at the sea of fans) You see, the Northland isn't about the long wait. It’s about the ones who keep finding reasons to dance when the fog rolls in. The Misfits aren't losers; they're just the ones who find the strength to keep going.
Suddenly, the whistling wind snapped into the thunderous roar of sixty thousand fans. The stop-motion snow vanished, replaced by the bone-shaking rumble of the Gjallarhorn. The fog lifted, the stage set. Let’s see if the Hutchy gets fed, or if the Misfits find the song within their heart… and GRIDDY!
Lions
Implied Team Total: 25.5
The Lions and Vikings are two of the more disappointing teams of the season. The Vikings, who were thought to be contenders, are more like an eight-win team according to Pythagorean expected wins. The Lions are more like a ten-win team, but they have underperformed. The Vikings have already been eliminated from the playoffs, but the Lions enter Thursday with a 6% chance.
The Lions are well above average in offensive EPA, but they are slightly below average in defensive EPA allowed. In fantasy, we want to target players from teams that are above average on offense and below average on defense.
Offensively, the Lions are above average in dropback EPA and rush EPA.
The Lions rank seventh in offensive EPA per play and 12th in offensive success rate. They rank fifth in offensive EPA per dropback and eighth in offensive success rate on dropbacks.
The Lions average 27 seconds per play (15th). They have a 59% pass rate (T-10th). They’ve spent 290 plays at or above a seven-point lead (5th). They maintain a 50% pass rate when leading by as much, tied for the eighth-highest rate, so they actually pick up the pace relative to the league's adjustments when leading by seven or more. Their pass rate over expected (PROE) is 0.19% (16th). Detroit runs 63 offensive plays per 60 minutes (T-19th).
Jared Goff has dropped back 545 times (10th), converting them into 507 attempts (4th). He’s able to close the gap between his dropback and attempts by not taking sacks and not scrambling.
With his high volume, Goff has never scored single-digit fantasy points. He has been a QB1 seven times in 15 games. He can put up spikes, too, having hit over 30 points twice and nearly 40 once.
Goff is a good passer, with above-average EPA and EPOE. Goff’s production is entirely made up of passing stats, as he has no rushing platform.
I have a simple touchdowns-over-expected model (TDOE). I divide each player's TDs by his yards, find the average TDs/Yds rate of all qualified players, then determine expected TDs by multiplying that average base rate by each player’s yards. Then, I subtract the expected TDs from the actual TDs. As the season progresses, this becomes increasingly more informative, as we can spot regression candidates. The players in the middle are less susceptible to sudden changes in tendency, but those at the extremes are at real risk of seeing their rates regress toward the mean.
Goff shows up as a slight case for negative regression based on TDOE, but not by very much. His 5.9% TD rate is slightly ahead of his career average of 4.8%, but it’s not even as high as the 6.7% rate from last year (which was a career high).
The Vikings, however, are a real problem for QBs. Not only do they hold opposing QBs to the words PPR rank in the last five games, but they also hold them to last place in expected points (EP) and fantasy points over expected (FPOE). It is very unusual to see a clean sweep like this, and I’ll stress that the Vikings have seen Jordan Love, Sam Darnold, and Dak Prescott within that sample—three of the most efficient passers in the league.
The Lions have three players with a target share per game rate of at least 15%: WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown (28,2%) and Jameson Williams (20.4%), and RB Jahmyr Gibbs (21.0%). In an offense with this much effective pass volume, these are all good percentages.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks in the top ten in several of the most critical WR stats there are.
He has had six WR1 weeks, including spikes of 30, 39, and 41 PPR points. He has three single-digit weeks, but by any measure, he is one of the best fantasy WRs in the league.
Even so, he pops as a slight negative regression candidate based on TDs/Yds TDOE.
His 2025 TD rate of 7.5% also beats his career rate of 6.5%. However, his best TD rate, like Goff’s, was last year’s, when he earned 10.4%. After nearly two consecutive full seasons of this for these two in this system, we should probably reconsider their individual base rates higher than the average player at their position. If we accept that premise, negative regression doesn’t seem imminent.
Williams has been on fire lately, putting up five WR1 outputs in his last seven games. In keeping with his sort of boom/bust reputation, the other two performances were outside of the top 24, including one total whiff in Week 12.
Of late, WR Isaac TeSlaa has been seemingly gaining a little momentum, taking over as a big, physical outside presence with some old-school “X” tendencies. He’s had some serviceable production for deeper leagues in three of his last four weeks, including his first foray into the top 24 last week. TeSlaa wouldn’t yet be in consideration in most home-league formats, but for a deeper PPR-based format where you can use five WRs at once, he’s definitely on people’s radar.
The simple correlation is that, while LaPorta has been injured, the Lions haven’t been able to be reasonably successful in 12-personnel because their players aren’t good enough as receivers, so they’ve been forced to just roll with 11. Against the Vikings, it could be different, and I’ll get into that in a sec.
10,000-foot view: the matchup against Minnesota is not great for an “X”; the shell/blitz combination the Vikings employ tends to scheme those types out. In general, I’d look for better options than TeSlaa. Without a TD (which is very possible at any moment for him), he’s not likely to have a great game here no matter how the chess game plays out.
Staying zoomed out a second: The Vikings have been the stingiest defense in the NFL over the last five games, holding wide receivers to the fewest PPR points in the league.
Okay, now, zooming in. The Vikings usually give up higher target rates per league average to slot players (33.1%, 6th) and inline players like TEs (14.4%, 7th) than they do to players who line up out wide (37.8%, 27th). This is a long-term historical trend against teams coached by DC Brian Flores; his teams maintain a unique mixture of a high blitz rate and high shell coverage, which tends to allow these players to leak out into spaces underneath.
So, while we generally want to fade WRs against the Vikings, this makes clear that St. Brown could be an exception as a slot who can carve teams up on these types of routes. Then again, we should recognize that the Vikings’ blitz also tends to draw teams into more 12-personnel looks (655 routes against, 4th), which bumps TeSlaa off the field and puts St. Brown out wide at a higher rate. Either way, St. Brown is probably fine.
Even lined up outside, this unique defensive system won’t allow the Vikings to bracket a player like St. Brown with a nickel or safety without breaking from their 2-high/high-blitz personality. And they’ll probably stay disciplined in that, since Williams is almost the platonic ideal of the type of receiver that Flores’ system prioritizes stopping above all else; it seems unlikely they’d choose a game against Williams to break from their norms.
And then, there’s the fact that for all their want-to, the Lions haven’t been effective in 12-personnel with all the injuries they’ve sustained, so they may just let it ride. That’s fine for St. Brown, too, because it locks him into attacking the Minnesota defense’s vulnerabilities.
All of this comes around full circle to say what a simple split could convey. Since Flores has been in Minnesota, St. Brown has outperformed his norms in most statistical categories. This is historically a favorable matchup for him.
The Lions have, of course, been without LaPorta, who hasn’t played since Week 10. As I mentioned, the Lions have had to pull back from the 12-personnel they often lean into due to injuries to LaPorta and TE Brock Wright (and for a while, TE Shane Zylstra, although he’s back in the lineup).
In the last two weeks, Firkser and Zylstra have been the Lions’ two main horses. But as their natural TE3 and TE4, there’s no juice here for fantasy. It would take some chutzpah to try using one of these guys, no matter what.
And the Vikings have been brutal on TEs as well, holding opponents to 32nd in fantasy points in their last five games. Now is not the time to seek the Firsker or Zylstra glory play for your fantasy championship.
The Vikings’ defense has been well above average in dropback EPA, but below average in rush EPA.
This has led the Vikings to become the league's most significant run funnel, as teams have chosen to pass just 50.6% against them (32nd).
The Vikings rank eighth in EPA per play allowed and defensive success rate. They rank third in EPA per dropback allowed and fourth in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
The Vikings run one of the most unique defenses in the NFL under Flores. They use zone at a rate of 76.2% (10th), and they run by far the most shell coverage in the league at 68.4% (1st), a rate that is10 percentage points higher than the Buffalo Bills at second.
Their preferred alignments are Cover 2 (28%) and Cover 3 (22.5%). They blitz at a rate of 42.9% (1st), also well ahead of the second-placed team, Atlanta, which blitzes at 35.4%. Flores plays defense like someone playing Madden.
This system is so unique that it has distinct effects on the pass-catchers it faces. I’ve gotten into a lot of this already with the WR breakdown (if you missed all that because you were expecting it here, back up and check out the St. Brown/Williams/TeSlaa section.
Fantasy Points’ coverage matchup tool assigns a zero-based matchup grade to each pass-catcher based on their opponent’s use of specific types and rates of coverage and how that pass-catcher performs against them. Positive numbers indicate a favorable matchup and negative numbers indicate an unfavorable one.
Based on this tool, none of the three pertinent Lions’ pass-catchers, not counting RB Jahmyr Gibbs, show up with a favorable matchup, but the matchup for Williams (-8.9%) and TeSlaa (-12.8%) is far worse than the one for St. Brown (-0.9%). But if you were hoping for a loophole, Gibbs’ matchup also comes out as unfavorable (-3.8%), so no one is really equipped to slice through the Flores scheme.
This all reinforces what we’ve already discussed—that the Vikings are an elite pass defense, so the matchup isn’t really ideal for WRs, but St. Brown’s matchup is the best option by default, which should funnel targets his way. This may manifest in St. Brown actually having a good day rather than a bad one.
PFF’s matchup tool is player-based, pitting the PFF ratings of individual players against each other for an expected number of plays based on historical tendencies and rating on a scale from great to poor.
Against the specific personnel, St. Brown’s matchup shows up as great. Williams’ shows up as fair. TeSlaa’s shows up as poor. If you needed additional encouragement to fade Firkser and Zylstra, both matchups grade out as poor. As a receiver, Gibbs’ matchup grades out as great.
The Lions’ offense allows a 1.91% pressure rate over expected (PrROE, 8th), while the Vikings’ defense generates 15.95% PrROE (1st). This gives the Lions a slight disadvantage when pass blocking on offense.
It seems contrary to how fundamentally sound he is, but Goff has struggled against pressure (part of it is that he doesn’t often face it). His pressure-to-sack rate is low at 16.0% (30th), but the problem lies with a massive 59.1-point QB rating delta between paying from a clean pocket and playing under pressure (3rd).
Based on the splits, Goff hasn’t shown a really notable change in his overall production in five games against Flores’ Vikings. The scheme will be very intentional about getting the ball away. This is undoubtedly what the Lions have been discussing all week.
The Lions rank 10th in offensive EPA per rush and 21st in offensive success rate on rushes.
Gibbs continues to serve as the Lions’ primary RB, drawing a 77% snap share (3rd), a 23% target share (1st), and earning 64% of the team’s rush attempts (3rd). Gibbs has one of the best roles in the NFL—probably second to Christian McCaffrey’s.
Gibbs is my kind of dude. If you’ve read my work at all, you know my philosophy is to basically do all I can do to avoid “safe” players (i.e., high floor/low ceiling) in any instance that makes sense, in favor of more volatile players who can hit incredibly high highs.
Gibbs’ Week 12 game was the best RB performance of the year at 55.4 PPR points, but he’s hit 35+ PPR points a remarkable four times. In the weeks where Gibbs underperforms, you are taking a hit, for sure; however, you are being penalized far less when that happens than you are being rewarded when he hits on these spike weeks. In those weeks, you basically auto-win.
Gibbs’ secret is the mixture of being in terrific offense, being ultra-explosive, and earning a ton of high-value touches (HVTs). Gibbs has earned 93 HVTs (2nd), trailing only McCaffrey. He earns an HVT on 31.7% of his opportunities (2nd).
Technically, Gibbs is also a regression candidate based on my TDs/Yds TDOE model.
Gibbs’ career rushing TD rate is 5.8%, while his receiving TD rate is 3.3%. His 6.3% rushing TD rate and 4.7% receiving TD rate this season are both career highs. Perhaps more than with Goff and St. Brown, there is a case to be made that he’s running a little hot, but he’s such a unique player and his role has changed so significantly over the last year that this is difficult to quantify.
The person most unilaterally affected by Gibbs’ ascendence to true bell-cow has, of course, been RB David Montgomery. Montgomery was more of a mid-level RB2 in 2023 and 2024. This year, he’s really more of a flex.
Montgomery has flashed upside, hitting a near-30-point performance against Baltimore in Week 3 and an additional RB1 week, but he has not been anywhere near that since Week 6, recording three top-24 weeks and six single-digit PPR games. Last week, he was disastrous for fantasy GMs.
The Vikings rank 23rd in EPA per rush allowed and 21st in defensive success rate on rushes.
To clarify, they are not an “easy” defense to run on; the run serves as the path of least resistance against them. Still, with the Lions preferring to run and owning a massive implied advantage based on the 7.5-point spread, and the Vikings’ run defense showing up as a defined weakness, Gibbs could be set up for an enormous day.