Quick Slant: Friday Night - Time to Flip the Script?
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
Hollywood is a land of dreams; it feels like a metropolitan sprawl of 18 million waiters and valets spread along 33,000 square miles, each preparing for their place on the couch next to some late-night talk show host. It’s a city where 120 pages of one-sided paper attached by tiny brass brads can change a life forever.
The formula is surefire, and it sells: a team—a lowly underdog, shepherded by a savior who helps them to find their full potential, rising to heights no one ever thought possible. Is this the script for the Year Two Chargers under HC Jim Harbaugh?
Or there’s another: a resilient old dog that everyone has written off as past their prime, pushed aside in favor of something new. No longer will youthful energy and naïve simplicity be enough to get over; only grit and courage can topple the new threat. Will this be the script for a Chiefs’ dynasty many believe has reached its end?
The Chargers and Chiefs are rivals because their relative geographical proximity and establishment as AFL O.G.s have placed them in the AFC West, where each has been for generations. Otherwise, if it is fueled by anything, it is their immense contradiction.
Los Angeles is massive, it’s neon, and it's monied. Yes, there are “real folk” who make ends meet and live by humble means, but perceptually, the blue-collar pockets are swallowed by the white elephants of Beverly Hills. The truth is: when people think of L.A., they think of Rodeo Drive, actors, and parties; of world-renowned chefs, palm trees, and stars on the Walk of Fame. SoFi Stadium plays into that: shimmering glass emerging from an oasis—the most expensive stadium in history in a city where the sun never stops glistening.
The Chiefs represent America’s heartland; they are the most centralized team in the NFL—the Dust Bowl, the Midwest. The pace it's known for is slower—tailgating over pork and beer—and their obsessions are simpler, like football. The pride they feel for their Chiefs is unassailable, so all threats to them become threats to Kansas City itself, each opponent a new arch-nemesis.
In this world, the coastal elites are underdogs—the have-nots, bearers of seemingly annual misfortune. The champions of Middle America hold their thumb on the scales, blessed with one of the greatest head coaches ever, and a QB who already has a spot reserved in Canton at age 29. But the Chargers have new life, and it’s really different this time.
Jim Harbaugh has the second-best winning percentage among active head coaches in the NFL; the Chargers jumped from a 5-12 to 11-6 in his first season as HC—a year with a minimum of roster churn. They are already on the right path, and it should only get better. Will Friday in Brazil signify the start of a new world order in the AFC West?
Chargers
Implied Team Total: 21.75
The Chiefs and Chargers were each playoff teams, and the Chiefs made the Super Bowl for the fifth time in six years, but there are certainly signs that either team’s success in 2024 may have been inflated. Using Pythagorean Wins, each team overachieved, primarily Kansas City, which had more wins over expected than any other team by leaps and bounds.
Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman have a reputation for playing three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust, but anyone insisting they were run-heavy last season is being disingenuous, or simply not paying attention. The Chargers were the 12th-pass-heaviest team in the league according to pass rate over expected (PROE). QB Justin Herbert was 13th in dropbacks and pass attempts.
We don’t know if this ties directly to personnel, but we do know the Chargers leaned heavily on RBs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards last year, and neither is on the roster now. They went all-in on first-round RB Omarion Hampton, who will start Friday, and added veteran Najee Harris from Pittsburgh. This flurry in the backfield could signal urgency to restore Harbaugh and Roman’s ground game, or maybe it’s a coincidence, and last year’s pass-heavy approach had more to do with Herbert.
Herbert is almost inarguably the best QB Harbaugh has coached at the NFL level. Roman has coached Lamar Jackson, but Jackson’s skill as a runner clouds the data. He has also spent large swaths of his career getting the most out of less heralded QBs like Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor by leaning heavily on the run game.
It is within the realm of possibility that Herbert changes the math for Harbaugh and Roman, and they will utilize the passing game more now than they ever have because Herbert is the right tool to do it. Last season, the Chargers were better in EPA per play and success rate on dropbacks than they were in EPA per play and success rate on rushes.
Herbert was PFF’s fourth-highest graded QB in 2024. He also finished fourth in PFF’s Big Time Throw Percentage. He finished top-10 in aDOT and QB Rating. He was closer to the middle in statistics that signify small-win consistency, such as adjusted competition percentage and first downs. All in all, Herbert is essentially a bit of a big-play artist, which plays into his natural talents as a big-armed pocket-passer. This is confirmed by the fact that the Chargers’ passing efficiency carries a higher rank than their success rate.
What isn’t a false narrative is that the Chargers had low play volume, running the third-fewest offensive snaps in the NFL over 17 games. Their pace was middle of the pack. Part of that may trace to the 336 plays they ran with a lead of seven or more. They don’t slow down more than the league average in those spots, but every team naturally eases off when ahead.
WR Ladd McConkey had an efficient rookie season, finishing as the WR 13 overall as a rookie in 2024, drawing a 24% target share, and finishing 14th in fantasy points over expected (FPOE) among WRs.
Quentin Johnston returns, but rumors swirl that his role may continue to change from a downfield role, where he seems miscast, to something shorter that relies on YAC. This seems plausible as the Chargers have made a concerted effort to find a more traditional X, drafting WR Tre Harris (Mississippi) and Keandre Lambert-Smith (Auburn), as well as pursuing a reunion with veteran Mike Williams, who ultimately retired instead of competing for a roster spot. The energy that has been spent on this could reinforce the idea that the Chargers have a desire to see Johnston’s role altered. Harris was drafted in the second round, but he’s been hurt, and Lambert-Smith, a fifth-rounder, has drawn a decent amount of buzz.
The Chargers also bring back WR Keenan Allen, who spent one season with the Bears in 2024, but otherwise spent every season of his prolific career in San Diego and Los Angeles. Allen is 33, and he missed almost all of the off-season program, so a slower ramp-up seems realistic. That said, people have been trying to write Allen's eulogy for the past two seasons, criticizing his age, fitness, and lack of speed. He continues to defy his detractors and prove that route running is about technique above all, earning a 32% market share in 2023 with LA and a 27% share in Chicago last year; both led the team.
For those who properly respect Allen, there is some concern about his overlap with McConkey, as they are viewed as slot players. While this is mainly true, it may be overstated. Allen’s highest slot usage was 64.3% in 2022, but in the years since, he has been at 59% and 54%. He actually began his career by being used almost exclusively out wide, running over 80% of his routes from a wide alignment for the first three years of his career.
Likewise, McConkey has thus far proven to be as effective out wide, if not more, with better targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR) from a wide alignment.
What is of concern is that, though he is still an elite target earner, Allen’s efficiency may be thoroughly cooked. His YPRR was 1.36 with Chicago a year ago, and his FPOE was -12.9, both career lows. The most likely scenario is that Allen doesn’t have a full-time role. Instead, he may be used situationally, and he and McConkey may trade off between inside and outside alignments, or even play in the slot together in 4-WR sets.
Perceptually, the Chiefs were excellent on defense a year ago; according to advanced metrics, they were middle-of-the-pack, neither excelling nor underwhelming in any particular way.
The Chiefs ran man-coverage ninth-most in the league, although that still amounts to just 32.7%. They are a bit unorthodox according to NFL norms, but they use Cover 1 more than any other alignment, which isn’t unusual. They use Cover 4 just under 20% and Cover 3 only slightly less. In 2024, McConkey performed well against man and Cover 3; he was worse against quarters. Quentin Johnston was 10th in the NFL against Cover 3, scoring 0.61 fantasy points/route.
The Chargers are expected to hold an advantage in pass protection based on Fantasy Points’ OL/DL matchup data, although multiple variables should change the inputs; namely, RT Rashawn Slater tore his patellar tendon and is out for the season, and the Chargers added RG Mekhi Becton (Eagles) and C Bradley Bozeman (Panthers). The loss of Slater is a big blow, and it prevents the Chargers from entering the conversation for the best OL in football. As it is, they turn over RT duties to Trey Pipkins, who earned 838 snaps a year ago as a swing tackle.
Almost surprisingly, the Chargers weren’t very good at pushing people around in the running game. They generated just 1.71 adjusted yards before contact/attempt, which ranked 22nd. Although L.A. would rather have Slater, a second-team All-Pro, Pipkins is better at run blocking than at pass blocking, as are both Becton, who contributed to the best run-blocking unit in football a year ago, and Bozeman. This season, expect diminished pass blocking but possibly improved run blocking.
Against the Chiefs, they could still be outmatched, because Kansas City was the sixth-ranked defense in adjusted yards before contact/attempt, allowing just 1.70. The Chiefs, of course, are led by 3x first-team All-Pro and probable future Hall of Famer Chris Jones, who is arguably the best DT in the NFL.
Hampton and Harris will likely form a committee of some sort, although a fireworks injury to Harris’ eye opened the door for Hampton to jump into the starting lineup, which he has already done. Hampton is a first-round RB who has immense talent; the Chargers’ offense may hamstring him somewhat. Roman and Harbaugh have historically not featured their RB as a heavy pass-game option, which limits upside.
It is challenging to predict how the ground work will be dispersed; there is tension behind the traditional veteran deference, and the fact that Hampton has been taking the reps, so unfortunately, we will have to wait and see.
