Quick Slant: MNF - But the Gift Shop Will Be Open
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
Dallas was founded in 1850—a small town nestled in broad meadows under big skies with nary a water source in sight, which it remained for some 80 years. Then oil was discovered beneath it—lots of it. Wells and derricks plunged into the hard earth, and they extracted money, which in turn paid for relevance.
Today, the metropolitan area of Dallas—affectionately called the Metroplex—stretches out like an empire that might one day attempt to conquer Oklahoma, covering some 9,200 square miles—nearly twice the size of the Los Angeles metro area and roughly 4% of Texas itself. It can be seen from space, cutting through dark plains that serve as an estuary between the pine woods of Longview and the high desert of Amarillo. And still, it grows.
One of its captains is a modern-day, real-life J.R. Ewing—an oil man in suits and boots with Southern-spun charm: Jerry Jones. Originally from Arkansas, just a few hours up I-30, Jones inherited a modest understanding of the oil business from his father but had an eye for big-risk bets, one of which culminated in a scene straight out of There Will Be Blood. He became a multi-millionaire overnight and parlayed that fortune into other ventures until he finally achieved his heart’s desire: ownership of the Dallas Cowboys.
He treated his team the same way, risking it all for one big bet. He fired Tom Landry, the establishment coach and hero to generations of fans, and staked it all on a college hotshot named Jimmy Johnson. They traded their most lucrative asset—RB Herschel Walker—and turned the picks into a deep-pocketed dynasty that seemed incapable of losing.
Until it defeated itself.
Jones grew jealous of Johnson, and Johnson, feeling slighted, pushed back. In the midst of runaway greatness, they “mutually agreed” to part ways. Dallas cruised to one more Super Bowl on the fumes of Johnson’s roster, but then, the empire unraveled. Nothing has ever tortured Dallas sports fans as much—perhaps until last year’s trade of former Mavericks star Luka Dončić, its own Babe Ruth moment.
In the 36 seasons preceding that final banner under substitute teacher, HC Barry Switzer, the Cowboys essentially had three dynasties in a row, with very narrow transitions. They averaged a playoff win per year, reached 14 NFC Championship Games, and captured five Super Bowls during that time. In the 29 years since, they’ve won just five playoff games and have never returned to the final four. Consider fans in the Metroplex as nonplused with whatever the Cowboys have become, as you are.
If anyone is, the Raiders are the Cowboys' AFC doppelganger.
In Oakland, the Raiders were invention, fire, and rebellion. The NFL would smack owner/GM Al Davis in the face, and he would only lean in harder. Toothless barbarians roamed their line—masochists in search of eyes to gouge and skulls to crack. Along the sidelines and up the field, there was raw speed. And Davis himself was an innovator, injecting life into the forward pass, which had long been treated like a trick play. In the end, he and HC John Madden took small-market Oakland to the top of the food chain. Before long, they had won three titles, and then they remained at least relevant for decades afterward.
But they drifted, physically, and in terms of focus—first south to Los Angeles, then back north again. Each move was a little more transactional, and with them, their brand became a little less mythic. Distraction overpowered destruction. Mystique faded to marketing. And when Vegas came calling, Davis’s heir, Mark, answered, shipping the silver in black to a shimmery glass palace in the desert, and ripping the team from the clutches of its faithful.
And so, like the Cowboys, the Raiders are now a brand without a bang. They have a majestic palace, but it is hollow inside. Each is a cautionary tale in hubris, the allure of capital gains, and losing sight of what is most important. And as each sheds layers of its tribe with each passing generation—those faithful holdouts, growing fatigued by a lack of real effort—the owners they trust to win tomorrow only look back on trophies from yesterday.
On the line Monday, as these two empty vessels meet—five wins between them—is likely nothing. But the gift shop will be open.
Cowboys
Implied Team Total: 27
The Raiders are 2-7, while the Cowboys are 3-5-1. Each team comes in slightly under expectation according to Pythagorean expected wins, which is based on points for and points against.
In fantasy football, we love teams that have good offenses and bad defenses. This tends to create more meaningful volume as teams attempt to outpace their counterparts. The 2025 Cowboys have been the platonic ideal of such a scenario—well above average in offensive efficiency, while well below average in defensive efficiency.
Offensively, the Cowboys are highly effective passing the ball and moderately effective running; they rank relatively highly in rush EPA, though, because other teams hover around zero EPA, whereas the Colts are literally in a class of their own.
Dallas ranks sixth in offensive EPA per play and ninth in offensive success rate.
They rank 8th in offensive EPA per dropback and offensive success rate on dropbacks.
As they have for years, throughout various coordinators, the Cowboys run a fast game plan, averaging 25.7 seconds to snap. Their pass rate is 61% (T-5th). Their pass rate over expected (PROE) is +3.5% (10th). They swing pretty run heavy with a heavy lead, but for as great as their offense is, they’ve only led by seven or more points for 13.8% of their plays (T-24th). They run 66 offensive plays per 60 minutes (T-8th).
QB Dak Prescott has 40.2 dropbacks per game (5th), converting those into 36.6 passing attempts per game (2nd).
Prescott no longer has an above-average rushing platform, as he did when he was younger, so we should think of him as strictly a pocket passer—albeit a very good one. Because he no longer has the floor/ceiling head start a mobile QB would have, we might assume he is inconsistent; however, his high volume serves a similar purpose. Prescott ranks fifth in fantasy expected points per game (EP/G), according to RotoViz data (21.7).
He’s been a QB1 five times, and twice, he’s been just below the necessary threshold. He has only had two games where he was a drag on a single-QB fantasy lineup, which is decent consistency.
With the passing opportunity Prescott gets, he makes the most of it. He ranks high in completions (3rd), yards (6th), and TDs (7th). He is above average in both EPA and CPOE.
The Raiders have performed decently against QBs in recent games. They have faced Mahomes in that sample, but no one else is elite (I’m not there with Jones just yet, friends—sorry). The scoring has been comprised of a lot of EP, and not as many fantasy points over expected (FPOE)—broadly, efficiency. So opportunity—specifically, high-value opportunity—is the primary driver among the recent QBs they have faced.
Not only is the Cowboys' offense good, but it is also concentrated. Only three pass-catchers have at least a 15% target share per game over their last five games: WR CeeDee Lamb, WR George Pickens, and TE Jake Ferguson.
CeeDee Lamb sustained an ankle injury against Chicago in Week 3, so his season has been somewhat truncated. Of the five complete games he has played, he has never finished worse than a top-24 WR, and he has been in the top 12 twice, although, in each case, barely so.
Pickens has played every game and logged two WR1 weeks, both during Lamb’s Weeks 4–6 absence. He has three finishes outside the top 24 and only one true dud, in Week 1, his first game with the franchise. He has not posted a top-12 finish with a healthy Lamb, although his ceiling is clear, with more than 30 PPR points in both of his WR1 weeks.
The presence of Lamb has made a massive impact on Pickens, who was fantasy’s overall WR1 in Weeks 4-6, averaging 26.3 PPR points per game. Most of the difference in scoring has less to do with how much opportunity Pickens got in these games, but more to do with how good those opportunities were. In games without Lamb, Pickens had far more yardage and TD production with only one additional target per game.
The Raiders’ defense against fantasy WRs largely reflects the same pattern as their defense against QBs, albeit slightly more favorable in terms of efficiency. The sample is not filled with elite-level WRs, other than Rashee Rice. They haven’t faced anything quite like the pairing of Lamb and Pickens.
TE Jake Ferguson has been a very consistent high-level TE for most of the season, with six straight TE1 games from Weeks 2-7. He bottomed out against Denver, who shut him out, but mostly recovered last week, narrowly missing the top 12.
We may draw a line back to Lamb and assume a big difference in games where Lamb played. Ferguson had three top 12 performances when Lamb was out, and the only three games that weren’t top 12 performances all happened while Lamb was in. Oddly, Ferguson drew fewer targets and receptions in games where Lamb was out of the lineup; however, he had excellent touchdown luck in those games, scoring four times in three contests. Whether that is correlated with Lamb’s presence or absence is hard to say, given the small dataset.
Fantasy TEs against Las Vegas have ranked 27th in their last five games. This sample included Tyler Warren and Travis Kelce, who thrived when they were able to get the ball, but getting them the ball on meaningful volume proved challenging.
The Las Vegas defense has been close to average. It’s been below average in dropback EPA allowed, but it’s a little above average in rush EPA allowed.
The Raiders’ defense ranks 19th in EPA per play allowed and 16th in defensive success rate. It ranks 20th in EPA per dropback allowed and 16th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
Las Vegas uses zone defense at a rate of 83.8% (1st). They use a single-high safety look on 53.6% of their plays (12th). Based on this, it is of little surprise that Cover 3 is Las Vegas’ default defense, which they run at a rate of 45.2% (2nd). There is no other alignment they use more than 17%. They barely blitz at a rate of just 19.8% (25th).
Fantasy Points’ coverage matchup tool assigns a zero-based matchup grade to each pass-catcher based on their opponent’s use of specific types and rates of coverage and how that pass-catcher performs against them. Positive numbers indicate a favorable matchup and negative numbers indicate an unfavorable one.
Other than Lamb, every significant Cowboys’ pass-catcher, including WRs Kavontae Turpin and Jalen Tolbert, shows up with favorable matchups. Lamb’s matchup is seen as unfavorable (-12.9%). Pickens’ (+9.6%) and Ferguson’s (+14.5%) matchups are viewed as favorable based on the types of defense.
PFF’s matchup tool is player-based, pitting the PFF ratings of individual players against each other for an expected number of plays based on historical tendencies and rating on a scale from great to poor.
Based on this, Pickens’ matchup grades out as good, while Lamb’s, Ferguson’s, and Prescott’s matchups grade out as fair. The reason is that Lamb would presumably play several snaps against S Jeremy Chinn from the slot; Chinn is one of the Raiders’ better coverage players. Pickens would at least get a fair amount of work against CB Darien Porter, most likely, which looks like a mismatch.
Dallas has been a good pass-blocking unit, allowing just +3.9% pressure rate over expected (PrROE, 11th of 30 Week 11 teams). Las Vegas, led by superstar DE Maxx Crosby, has generated a +10.7 PrROE (9th of 30 Week 11 teams) defensively. In the composite, the Cowboys have the fifth-best pass-blocking matchup of the week, according to Fantasy Points’ OL/DL matchup tool.
On the contrary, Dallas has had a tough time generating quality run blocking; they have just 1.56 adjusted yards before contact per attempt (Adj YBC/Att, 27th of 30 Week 11 teams). Defensively, Las Vegas has allowed 1.53 Adj YBC/Att to their opponents (4th of 30 Week 11 teams). Despite getting to the ball carrier fast, they aren’t necessarily bringing him down on first contact.
Dallas ranks sixth in offensive EPA per rush and fifth in offensive success rate on rushes. Las Vegas ranks 14th in EPA per rush allowed and 21st in defensive success rate on rushes.
RB Javonte Williams has been the Cowboys’ answer at RB after years of searching once Ezekiel Elliott passed through to the other side of his prime. Williams has been a featured back, recording 75% of the Cowboys’ RB snap share, an 11% target share, and 61% of the team’s rushing attempts.
Williams is ranked in the top ten in almost every meaningful category; he lacks efficiency, but he always has, even in his pre-injury form.
One of the most meaningful reasons Williams is valuable in fantasy is that he is tied with Jahmyr Gibbs for seventh in high-value touches (HVT, 38), which is receptions + carries from inside the five-yard line. These are the plays that score the most fantasy points per touch.
Williams has been a top 12 RB five times in nine games. He has only had two games where he fell out of the top 24, both of which occurred in his last four games, raising moderate—probably unfounded—concern.
The Raiders have been an easy target for fantasy RBs, who have recorded the eighth-most total fantasy points against them in the last five games. This has been imbalanced in favor of quality opportunity over efficiency; the Raiders surrender the most EP to fantasy RBs during that stretch, likely in part because they trail in games and give up TDs. EP is generally far more predictive and stable from week to week than FPOE.
In summary, all of your fantasy-relevant Cowboys could be played this week—Prescott, Lamb, Pickens, Ferguson, and Williams—and only Lamb has a potentially tricky matchup environment. However, Lamb, of course, is too good to bench in managed leagues.
Raiders
Implied Team Total: 23.5
The Raiders are about average in defensive EPA but near the cellar in offensive EPA.