Quick Slant: SNF - Between a King's Crown and a Jester's
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
Matt Ryan pressed his right foot into the turf at the ten, swung his hips, and lofted an easy pass to Tevin Coleman, who caught it at his waist as he sprinted alone in the right flat near the numbers. Coleman had lost Rob Ninkovich—it wasn’t close—and with open field, Ninkovich couldn’t overcome his head start to the pylon. The astonished crowd at NRG Stadium erupted. It was 28-3 in the third; Atlanta seemed destined to win its first Super Bowl.
The hopes of a city that had known only one professional championship to that point were set to be quenched in a way no one ever saw coming. The Patriots. Brady. Belichick. A team that went to roughly half the Super Bowls between 2001 and 2019. Their losses—then only two—had been extraordinary, seemingly unrepeatable miracles at the hands of the Giants. Their victories—then four—loomed larger.
One thing the Patriots taught us during their reign as the NFL’s most dominant franchise was how thin the margins could be: two miracle catches by relatively unheralded WRs, sacks that never were, and out-of-body drives by Eli Manning denied them two Lombardis. Two clutch kicks by Adam Vinatieri gave them back. Most recently at that point, a heroic interception on a questionable goal-line play had flipped Brady from a kind of Elwayish, Staubachy A-minus to the G.O.A.T. in an instant.
We all know what happened next in 2017. Brady became the boogeyman, James White scored three times, and Julian Edelman made an epic diving catch an inch above the turf amid a crowd of three defenders off a wild deflection. The Falcons pressed the gas unproductively, stopping the clock and turning the ball over, while the defense gave up too much underneath. In the end, come overtime, White cut and banged into defenders like an impact driver until he fell into a small corner of red paint in the end zone, and the Patriots danced under confetti as if it were their first time.
Then Falcons OC Kyle Shanahan took much of the blame for 28-3. His pass-rate until Coleman scored in the third was 74.5%; after, it rose to 82.2%. Many ridiculed him for failing to retreat into the rushing game, which seemed the safest path to victory. He wasn’t trusted then; a nepo-baby with OC hits like Robert Griffin III and Brian Hoyer, and a huge miss like Johnny Manziel. But 28-3 became his biggest blight on record.
Now the HC of the 49ers, Shanahan exists today somewhere in the space between genius and choker. His 49ers appeared in four of five NFC Championships between 2019 and 2023, winning two and losing both Super Bowls to the Mahomes/Reid Chiefs. In the second, they were again sniped from atop a perch, forced into another improbable overtime, resulting in another wild comeback for their opponent.
Today, the 49ers are enigmatic; coming off one of their worst seasons of the Shanahan era, they have been riddled with injuries, yet they are somehow 4-2. And just as it seemed they were on the precipice of survival, they lost heart-and-soul LB Fred Warner, who will be in street clothes for the rest of the year alongside DL Nick Bosa. Coupled with the offseason departures of LB Dre Greenlaw and S Talanoa Hufanga to Denver, CB Charvarious Ward to Indianapolis, DT Maliek Collins to Cleveland, and DT Javon Hargrave to Minnesota, the defensive side of the ball is unrecognizable. And lest we not forget, WR Deebo Samuel is in Landover.
This is the attrition of paying a QB the going rate rather than coaching up whatever tumbleweed blows in under the saloon door, as the Niners used to do; no longer is this an all-star team led by an underdog; it is an all-star, leading a reduced crew. But injuries have cost them that same all-star QB, Brock Purdy, as well as TE George Kittle, WR Brandon Aiyuk, WR Ricky Pearsall, and WR Jauan Jennings. Despite the mostly positive record, the 49ers sometimes feel like the House of Usher, with injuries as their morbid condition.
The only question is whether 2025 is an unstoppable tragedy or if there is still time to reverse course. Sunday, they invite to their mighty mansion a team flying higher than they have since Shanahan stood on their own sidelines. Last week, the Falcons toppled the mighty Bills with prejudice; a city has suddenly become revived with the growth of an encouraging defense, a young QB, and the long-awaited coalescing of four skill players drafted in the first eight picks of successive NFL drafts..
Shanahan stares again at thin margins, face-to-face with, for him, their ultimate anchor—a black bird on a helmet, a symbol of the fickleness between glory and gutting, between a king’s crown and a jester’s.
Falcons
Implied Team Total: 22.5
Both teams are middle-of-the-road in terms of Pythagorean expected wins, which means the points they’ve generated vs. allowed are somewhat even. They both have overachieved based on Pythagorean expected wins, with the 49ers ranking second in the NFL in wins over expected, behind only Tampa Bay. The 49ers are on pace to earn three wins over expected.
The Falcons have a 53% overall run rate (6th), and play relatively slow at the line (27.7 seconds to snap, 23rd). The Falcons rank 28th in pass rate over expected (PROE), meaning they call far fewer passes than expected, adjusted for down, distance, and game context. They rank 12th in offensive success rate, so they are relatively good at keeping drives alive.
The Falcons will be led by sophomore QB Michael Penix Jr., who has 172 dropbacks, according to PFF (24th) and 157 attempts (24th).
Penix has been dreadfully inaccurate, with an adjusted completion percentage of 71.0% (36th). With a time to throw of 2.72 seconds (15th), he is not holding the ball an inordinate amount of time, nor is he a big-game hunter, with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.9 (T-19th). He is also only pressured on 32.6% of his dropbacks (32nd). This appears to be who Penix is, as he has just a 75.2% adjusted completion percentage from a clean pocket (31st).
Penix has natural arm talent, but he is not offsetting mass conservatism with many big downfield throws. He is also not a high-level rushing threat. He ranks 24th in EPA + CPOE composite, according to data by rbsdm.com. The combination of factors—a low throw rate with moderate to low success rate and EPA numbers, and no rushing component—makes Penix a tough start everywhere.
The Falcons’ passing attack is centered on WR Drake London, who has a 32% market share, according to RotoViz data. He is coming off a brilliant game against Buffalo, where he went 10-158-1 on 15 targets. In his past two games alone, London has really ramped up, earning 25 targets and 18-268-2 for 28.4 PPR/G (1st). His 45% share in those two games (split by a Week 5 bye) is 45%, the best in the NFL in the past three weeks by ten percentage points. London is elite-adjacent, ranking in the top 10 in targets per route run (TPRR, 3rd), yards per route run (YPRR, 6th), and first-read targets (5th).
WR Darnell Mooney was thought to be the best target on the roster after London, but injuries have derailed his season, going all the way back to this summer. After missing last week, he is listed as questionable. When he’s played, he’s earned an 18% share. Mooney popped in a lot of the more predictive fantasy WR metrics throughout the summer, so he’s someone who should be on rosters—even somewhat eager to see, especially in PPR leagues with multiple flexes, where he could eventuate as an almost every-week play.
TE Kyle Pitts has been surprising. He still isn’t the elite player many envisioned as he came out of Florida, but his production has certainly been usable. He's in play.
The 49ers use zone 75.7% (12th), according to Fantasy Points. They use a fairly league-average and balanced split between single-high and two-high safety looks. Their most popular coverage by far is Cover 3 (35.2%), followed by Quarters (21.0%). The 49ers’ pass defense is generally pretty poor, ranking 24th in defensive dropback EPA. The absence of Warner and Bosa for the year won’t help turn things around anytime soon.
Because of the inconstant presence of Mooney, the high target share for the RB Bijan Robinson, and the team experimenting with varying personnel, few Falcons receivers qualify for Fantasy Points’ matchup tool, which is based on the types and rates of coverages a receiver’s opponents utilize most. London and Pitts both register as having neutral matchups based on this.
Against specific players, London should maintain a great matchup according to PFF’s matchup tool, which is player matchup-based. London moves around a lot, but wherever he goes, he should have a favorable matchup. For Pitts, the matchup may be more tepid, as PFF has his assignment as fair.
Especially without Bosa, the 49ers' pass rush is inept. They rank 29th of 30 teams on this week’s slate, generating -2.14 pressure rate over expected (PrROE). Even with the Falcons ranking nearer to the middle than the top in offensive PrROE allowed, they are expected to enjoy the most significant advantage of the week in pass blocking.
Unfortunately, keeping him clean hasn’t made Penix a far better QB, as he ranks 32nd in QB Rating from a clean pocket (91.4) while he ranks 20th under pressure (70.2). Still, the standard advantage every QB enjoys when kept clean should benefit Penix on Sunday night.
Robinson has arguably been the best RB in the NFL. He leads the league in PPR/G (24.8). He is the most efficient RB on the ground, with a league-leading rushing yards over expected (RYOE, 129). 49ers’ RB Christian McCaffrey bests Robinson on sheer volume through the air, but Robinson is more efficient there, too, earning 2.54 YPRR (2nd) and 12.67 YAC/rec (2nd), both of which surpass CMC.
The 49ers are generally a plus matchup for RBs, allowing the 10th-most PPR points to RBs in their last five games, according to RotoViz. During that span, they’ve allowed 5.4 receptions/G (5th), although they’ve minimized the damage, holding opponents to 30 receiving yards (22nd).
The Niners, like a lot of teams so far this year, are a pass funnel.
Robinson is too good for this to be a concern, but as an added bonus, he’s one of the rare backs who is insulated in all conditions and game scripts. And to be clear, the 49ers’ defense is in shambles. They likely don’t have the firepower to stop Robinson, so basically, if the Falcons want to run—which they usually do—they probably can.