Quick Slant: SNF - Just Keep Bailing
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
How they arrived here couldn’t have felt more different, but they’re here just the same. The Chiefs have been the league’s standard-bearer, led by the most familiar QB of a generation, himself, a machine that mass produces overcoming. The Giants have stumbled through more than a decade of frustration, their moments of hope snuffed out by inconsistency, injuries, and the burden of playing in a city where patience is always in short supply.
And yet, it wasn’t always that way; the Giants have four Super Bowl titles of their own—two by Parcells, two by Coughlin. When the Patriots were the steamroller, the Giants cut the power, not once but twice, stopping the bleeding on behalf of an America that had grown fatigued by Brady and Belichick and all their insufferable winning. Eight championships between them, the Chiefs and Giants are landmark franchises—their fanbases spoiled by laurels and banners, but more recently, splashed with the cold water of ineptitude.
And yet, they are now backed into the same corner, staring at the same zeroes on the ledger. Both are winless through two games, a situation in which the truth becomes as hard as nickel: since the NFL expanded its playoff format, fewer than one in seven teams have climbed from that hole to reach the postseason. Drop one more, and the odds shrink to a mote.
Despite long-term greatness, the Giants have become too familiar with this condition. Their stadium is accustomed to the quick metamorphosis from early-season fervor to further quiet despair; it usually happens about a half hour into a season. The Chiefs seem uncomfortable here, as if their trusty compass has suddenly pointed south. And yet, despite their sameness, there is no doubt which of these franchises feels like the imposter at the bottom of the standings, and which receives mail there.
Despite both teams arriving desperate, there is still plenty to play for. The Giants can strangely turn a corner; coming off of seemingly their first hopeful moment since HC Brian Daboll’s first year, they lost improbably against the rival Cowboys in Week 2, yet, in it, their QB looked like he’d found the Fountain of Youth, their line appeared sturdy, and their skill core looked feisty. A win against the marquee franchise of the past half-decade would sound the trumpets and provide a clear path forward.
And the Chiefs are so depleted that they feel they need to batten down the hatches and remain calm; reinforcements will arrive soon if the ship can only remain above water. They whisper through harried breaths: just keep bailing.
Chiefs
Implied Team Totals: 25
The Chiefs and Giants are bottom-10 in Pythagorean wins, a formula based on points for and points against, with New York slightly worse off than the team on the other sideline.
Although Kansas City and New York are each among the top ten fastest teams at the line in neutral scripts, they each rank in the bottom half in terms of total plays per 60 minutes. Each ranks more or less in the middle in team first downs, so keeping drives alive is not necessarily the problem.
There are many ways this can happen. A team could be more efficient on offense while limiting opponents to less effective but ultimately successful drives, with a disparity in third downs reflecting that gap. A team could commit an unusual number of penalties or turnovers, be heavily outpossessed, run a mix of three-and-outs and successful drives with little in between, or face a disadvantage in starting field position. In the case of these teams, very few of these factors stand out, although the Giants have been penalized for 97.5 yards per game (32nd). What’s more likely is that several or all minor disadvantages in these areas have combined, adding up to a larger collective effect.
The Chiefs have passed 62% of the time, tied for the 10th-highest pass rate, but their +7.7% pass rate over expected (PROE) ranks second behind only the Chargers.
With such high pass volume, QB Patrick Mahomes has 85 dropbacks (8th) and 68 pass attempts (13th) despite Kansas City’s below-average play volume.
Mahomes’ passing numbers haven’t been stellar (although they are likely better than in recent seasons). However, he has used his legs more often through two games, providing a salvo for his fantasy production and giving him positive fantasy points over expected (FPOE) after being underwater for two straight seasons.
His 123 rushing yards lead all QBs. All of his rushing has come on scrambles, so these aren’t schemed touches. Instead, Mahomes has found it more beneficial to take off than settle, and that has led him to ten rushing first downs and a league-leading seven runs of 10 or more yards. Typically, scrambles result in higher yards per carry (YPC) than designed rushes for QBs, and Mahomes is averaging 9.5 YPC (2nd).
The Chiefs entered the offseason with high hopes for their passing game components; they brought back WRs Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown from injury-plagued seasons, added WR Jalen Royals in the NFL Draft, TE Travis Kelce lost weight and was supposedly in better shape, and WR Xavier Worthy was entering his second season after finishing 2024 like gangbusters.
Attrition quickly set in, as it always seems to with the Chiefs’ pass-catchers. First, Rice was suspended for vehicular crimes stemming from a 2024 incident in Dallas, a punishment that had been widely expected to come in 2026 before a surprise announcement. Royals and Worthy have been injured and missed nearly all of both games. Kelce has appeared noticeably diminished, probably due to age, and the Chiefs’ two most significant negative plays of the season resulted directly from his mistakes.
The last man standing has been Brown, who soaked up an unbelievable 42% market share in Week 1, the third-highest single-game market share of his career, behind only back-to-back efforts of 44% and 47% for Baltimore in 2020. Against Philadelphia last week, that tumbled to a modest 17%, more in line with Brown’s usual outputs.
Even so, at his best, Brown is a low-efficiency accumulator—a borderline “PPR scammer.” And so, in ways, Kelce and Brown represent the same thing—a pluggable body that usually won’t score a zero, but won’t provide many pathways to upside either. Starting either right now, while probably viable, is likely to be an uncomfortable experience with a low probability of winning your week.
Of course, the real hope is that Worthy will return from injury soon. Worthy represents the purest hope for a fantasy-viable piece of the Chiefs’ passing game until Rice returns, aside from Mahomes himself. He has been practicing, and there is some optimism that he will play this week, although he will probably draw an honest “questionable” tag all the way up until Sunday, and possibly be a game-time decision.
Unfortunately, there are no new indicators as to how Worthy will be used in Rice’s absence; he was on the field for one route in Week 1, which he took from a wide alignment, and ran a horizontally-breaking route underneath, on which he was targeted. Against the Giants, who have allowed the highest percentage of slot targets thus far (45.6%), one might hope that the Chiefs would be motivated to get Worthy more slot snaps.
In his first season, Worthy’s slot snap percentage was 36.3%, but we might expect the Chiefs to keep Brown and WR Tyquan Thornton out wide, utilizing Worthy in the slot on a greater allotment of plays. This would seem to offer a possibly better alternative to using Smith-Schuster in the slot and yanking Thornton off the field, and I would expect this to be a common grouping.
Royals is also listed as questionable and is expected to be available to make his NFL debut.
The Giants have run the fourth-highest percentage of man defense this season (40.4%). Their most common coverage alignments are Cover 1 (31.9%), Cover 3 (26.6%), and Cover 2 (19.1%). No Chiefs pass-catcher really stood out in fantasy production against these alignment types in 2024. In quickly coming back from an injury to a franchise in desperation, even Worthy would be tough to trust in this one, despite the look of the Giants’ matchup on paper. If the Chiefs get ahead and feel comfortable generating offense without him, Worthy’s involvement could become deprioritized.
The Chiefs should struggle to protect Mahomes in this one, as the Giants have built an impressive stable of pass-rushers, especially when they can get edges Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and Abdul Carter on the field at the same time. Based on the 2024 pressure rate over expected stats (before Carter), the Giants have one of the most significant pass-rushing advantages of the week.
Mahomes handles pressure reasonably well, of course, and it may only prompt him to scramble even more if he is flushed out of the pocket. Mahomes has the most fantasy points per dropback through two games while under pressure. All in, Mahomes seems like a safe play this week, which would only be made better if Worthy can somehow go.
The Kansas City offensive line is far more neutral in the passing game, but Kansas City is below average in both offensive EPA per rush and offensive rush success rate. Thus far, this has been the worst aspect of their offense.
On the other hand, the Giants have been even worse in defensive EPA per rush and defensive rush success rate. This is not a case of two evenly matched rush offenses meeting in the middle of the pack somewhere; it’s a race to the bottom.
RBs Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt each have team rushing shares between 30% and 35%, with target shares of 6% and 7%, respectively. Both are underwater in terms of efficiency thus far, although it is worth noting the quality of their opponents, each of whom seems like a Super Bowl contender thus far. Pacheco and Hunt rank at or outside the top 40 in Fantasy Points’ expected points per game (XFP/G). Neither is very playable in traditional leagues as is.
This game will be telling; we have credible evidence that the Giants are a poor run defense. If the Giants’ run defense succumbs to the Chiefs’ offensive rush attack, it will strengthen the argument, but if the Chiefs can’t run on the Giants, their futility will be in more precise focus.
No one is running away with this backfield (no pun intended); RB Brashard Smith is a valid stash, but to be clear, he is a seventh-round back who profiled as a third-down specialist and has yet to do much with his opportunities either. Still, where we can, we want to hold unknown quantities down the depth chart from ineffective stars; Smith would fit the bill.