Quick Slant: SNF - The Smiling Personification of the Inevitable
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
Steve Cox only managed a 34-yard punt. Out came Elway.
Elway in Denver was like your five-year-old daughter and her friends had taken the accessories off of Summit Adventure Ken and put them on Beach Ken. Elway was a tow-headed Beach Boy with a 10-kilowatt smile—pure California, borrowed for a time each fall for an extended Rocky Mountain vacation. In bright orange and royal blue, wearing lucky number seven, with a playful horse emblazoned on his helmet, Elway was tailor-made to be your sister’s favorite player.
He was also arguably the most well-regarded draft prospect of all time; his presence at his second straight Super Bowl just five years into his career felt like destiny. And here he trotted out under a four o’clock sun wearing Denver orange, hardly a neutral spectator. To suggest Washington was the more complete team was to minimize the preeminence of a superhero.
From their own 44, the Broncos lined up in 21-personnel, shotgun—Elway flanked by Sammy Winder and Gene Lang—Ricky Nattiel wide right. The snap. Seven-step dropback. Elway planted and flung it.
The play’s outcome was predictable from his confidence. Nattiel had gotten loose behind Barry Wilburn, one-on-one down the sideline. The pass hit him in stride, and despite Wilburn clutching at his ankles, Nattiel shed the contact enough to fall gracelessly into the middle of the end zone. Hopping up beneath the hiss of an energized crowd at Jack Murphy Stadium, Nattiel seemed almost taken aback himself, too stunned to concoct a quality celebration.
Elway was 1-for-1 for 56 yards and a TD. It was one of those rare moments when, as a fan of the game, you stared headlong into the haunting eyes of reckoning. All that preparation—all that preaching about teamwork and synergy and playing for the man next to you? Meet the smiling personification of the inevitable.
Up 10-0 at the end of the first quarter, Denver looked unstoppable; Washington, dysfunctional. Cue the bold headlines on the typesetter for the February 1 edition of The Denver Post; Woody Paige was already typing: Congrats, Denver, on your Super Bowl XXII championship.
But the second quarter began with an 80-yard bomb to Ricky Sanders—a perfected edition of Denver’s first offensive play. Moments later, Gary Clark dove for a pass, landing on the corner of the end zone. Next, rookie RB Timmy Smith, filling in for George Rogers, took a counter-trey right and went nearly untouched for 58 yards. Then, Williams found Sanders over the top on a post for 50 yards and a TD. Finally, Clint Didier hauled in an eight-yard score over his left shoulder.
It was a 35-point quarter. Before you could blink, Washington had shown Denver what over really looked like.
It was the second in a string of disappointments for Elway, who lost three Super Bowls in four years—the living embodiment of failure at the highest level, until Elway and Denver handed its diadem of defeats directly to Buffalo and stepped aside to regenerate.
For Washington, it was history. Williams became the first black QB to win it all; Smith broke the NFL record for rushing yards in a Super Bowl with 204, a record that still stands. Most importantly, it delivered the franchise its second Lombardi trophy in six years. They would add another five years after that.
Denver and Elway would have their redemption tour under Mike Shanahan in the late nineties, securing two titles; Peyton Manning, Von Miller, and DeMarcus Ware would add another. Keeping score today, that’s Washington, three; Denver, three.
For two of the NFL’s flagship franchises, more recent sustained underperformance has brought the base to unthinkable lows, and with each, there have been new sparks of hope. Today, each feels like the beta version of the other’s 1987 selves.
The Broncos are led by one of the most well-respected coaches of a generation. They have an excellent offensive line at times reminiscent of Washington’s Hogs. Their QB is good but probably not great. They are guided by an incredible defense with both a tenacious pass rush and a reliable secondary.
The perception of the Commanders’ coach is generally favorable, but he’s better known for his failures than successes. Defensively, they are uneven. They run more progressive and pass-centric offensive concepts. They are weaker in the running game, but they pin their hopes on an ascendant prospect at QB who, when healthy, can cover many of their sins.
As for the 2025 implications? The Commanders, ravaged by injuries and negative regression, are barely clinging to relevance after a surprising 2024 final-four appearance. The Broncos have dreams of Championship Number Four. Can the Commanders, backup QB in tow, claim a signature win against a contender and right the ship heading into next year?
Broncos
Implied Team Total: 24.5
The Broncos, pacing for 14 victories, have the second-highest wins over expected according to Pythagorean expected wins, which puts them on pace for about 11. While they are one of the better teams in the NFL, it feels like they are one tier below elite.
Of course, one thing they have in their favor is one of the most lauded HCs of a generation, Sean Payton, who is trying to become the first HC to win the Super Bowl with two separate teams.
The Broncos are well above average in defensive EPA but nearly average in offensive EPA.
Denver is fast at the line (25.8 seconds to snap, 5th). They have a reasonably high raw pass rate at 59% (T-12th). They average 34 offensive plays per 60 minutes where they have been ahead by at least seven points (T-11th). Every team runs a lower pass rate when ahead by this much, but Denver’s pass rate falls to 50% (T-8th), so they don’t reduce their passing as dramatically as other teams might when they are out to a strong lead. Denver has run 66 plays per 60 minutes (T-9th).
Their pass rate over expected (PROE) is the seventh-highest (+4.29%), so they are inclined to pass relative to whatever situation they are in.
Denver ranks 16th in offensive EPA per play and 28th in offense success rate. It ranks 18th in offensive EPA per dropback and 30th in offensive success rate on dropbacks.
Denver is led by sophomore QB Bo Nix, who essentially looks like the same player he was a year ago. He has dropped back 424 times (9th), converting those into 387 pass attempts (5th). He has converted a higher percentage of his dropbacks into pass attempts this season because he has both scrambled and been sacked at lower rates.
Nix feels like he’s off pace from last season because he ranks 12th in PPR/G, whereas last year he finished 8th. The primary driver? Shifting goalposts, as Nix has done everything almost the same, but the PPR value that this has produced—also largely the same as last year—doesn’t rank as high due to a more crowded top end.
Nix has only two dud performances so far this season—unfortunately, in each instance, against defenses we would have expected them to exploit. Overall, however, he rarely tanks lineups, and his high-end is undeniably high, even if he doesn’t hit it consistently.
As a pure passer, Nix is slightly subpar, ranking below average in CPOE and about average in dropback EPA.
The Commanders have surrendered the sixth-most PPR points to opposing QBs in their last five games. This is a sample that has included an above-average set of QBs. The QBs have rated high in FPOE and low in EP, meaning they’ve produced in limited opportunities; then, as they’ve climbed out to leads, they’ve likely scaled back their pass attempts.
The Broncos have two players in their last five games with a target share per game rate of at least 15%: WRs Troy Franklin (24.2%) and Courtland Sutton (17%).
Obviously, seasoned fantasy GMs would race to one specific question based on these target shares. Has Franklin surpassed Sutton as Denver’s WR1? While we are probably dealing with a sample too small to draw meaningful conclusions from the data, we can see a significant shift from the more seasoned veteran to Nix’s old teammate at the University of Oregon.
After beginning the season with two WR1 performances, two high-end WR2 performances, and one dud in his first five games, Sutton has returned five stinkers in six games and one WR2 performance. This trail-off is concerning.
Sutton’s target share in the first five games was 21.0%; Franklin’s was 17.6%. Sutton operated as the clear no. 1 during that time, drawing the team’s highest air yards share (33.2%), first-read target share (27.7%), and first downs per route run (11.4%).
In the six games since, Sutton’s target share has fallen to 16.0%, while Franklin’s has risen to 22.6%. During that span, Franklin has led the team with a 46.2% air yard share, while Sutton’s has fallen to just 25.4%. Franklin has led with a 27.9% first-read target share, while Sutton’s has fallen to 18.4%. Neither leads the team in first downs per route run—that is Pat Bryant (9.7%)—but Sutton is down to 7.7%, while Franklin is at 7.0%.
As a cherry on top, Sutton's efficiency was considerably higher in his first five games than it has been since, so not only is he not getting the same quality opportunities, he isn't doing as much with them either.
Franklin has returned high-end WR1 value once against Dallas’ then-battered defense, and has floated near the WR2/WR3 line three times. Only once has his output been outside of the WR3 range, but even an 8.3 isn’t a total abomination. He's almost in auto-start territory in most PPR leagues that require some combination of four or more WRs and flexes.
While we certainly recognize that we are trying to deduce a lot about the Broncos from a minimal dataset, we should certainly recognize the possibility that Franklin is, in fact, taking over. For now, I would still have them in the same tier, but with slight deference given to Franklin.
Meanwhile, the Broncos’ third-round pick, WR Pat Bryant, has steadily been climbing the charts, culminating in six targets against KC the last time we saw Denver play. Realistically, Bryant’s target share since Week 7, when his workload first started to ramp up, has only been 9.3%, which is not playable. However, he is a rookie with decent draft capital who has performed well in his opportunities, positioned for a potential post-bye rookie bump. He should be rostered in deeper leagues by now; playing him will come down to matchups and necessity.
The matchup against Washington is one we could consider. The Broncos surrender the third-most PPR points to WRs in their last five games. We see the same pattern we do for Washington against fantasy QBs—the utmost highest efficiency and moderately low opportunity. This can be an indicator that the Commanders are weak against WRs, but as the Commanders have fallen behind in games, opposing offenses have backed off on passing.
TE Evan Engram has utility in two-TE or TE-premium formats; he has rarely delivered for single-TE GMs, barely ranking as a TE1 on only occasion. He has shown no upside, so he’s not my preferred type of play; he is usable if you’re cornered into it, but don’t expect much, in general. He’s more of a matchup-dependent streamer in most leagues.
If needed, however, this is a good week to try Engram. The Commanders’ woes spill into all areas of pass defense; they’ve allowed the seventh-most PPR points to opposing TEs in their last five games. This is a sample that includes Jake Ferguson, Travis Kelce, and Sam LaPorta.
The Commanders are poor at both pass defense and rush defense; they are worse in pass defense.
The Commanders rank 30th in EPA per play allowed and 27th in defensive success rate.
They rank 31st in EPA per dropback allowed and 29th in defensive success rate on dropbacks.
The Commanders run man-to-man coverage at a rate of 29.8% (9th). They run single-high at a rate of 54.7% (9th). Their most used alignments are Cover 3 (28.7%) and Cover 1 (23.8%), which are ultimately man and zone versions of the same defense. They blitz at a rate of 24.1%, which is nearly average.
Fantasy Points’ coverage matchup tool assigns a zero-based matchup grade to each pass-catcher based on their opponent’s use of specific types and rates of coverage and how that pass-catcher performs against them. Positive numbers indicate a favorable matchup and negative numbers indicate an unfavorable one.
Based on this model, Sutton (+7.9%) and Franklin (+3.5%) have favorable matchups, while Bryant (-0.3%) and Engram (-5.6%) have unfavorable ones. WR Marvin Mims (15.9%) actually has the most favorable matchup according to this model, but he is a limited role player with too few snaps to be considered.
PFF’s matchup tool is player-based, pitting the PFF ratings of individual players against each other for an expected number of plays based on historical tendencies and rating on a scale from great to poor.
Based on this tool, Sutton earns a matchup grade of great, while Franklin, Bryant, and Engram earn a grade of good.
Denver has a good offensive line. As a pass-blocking unit, the Broncos have allowed only a 1.65% pass rate over expected (PrROE, 8th). Washington earns an excellent 12.79% PrROE offensively (3rd), setting up strength against strength. As such, the matchup is neutral.
Denver’s run blocking is also excellent; they’ve generated 2.57 adjusted yards before contact per attempts (adj. YBC/att, 4th). Washington allows 2.30 adj. YBC/Att to opponents (24th). This gives Denver a slight advantage at the point of attack.
The Broncos rank 15th in offensive EPA per rush and 18th in offensive success rate on rushes.
The Broncos lost RB J.K. Dobbins three weeks ago, but it still feels like their long-term plan is in flux; one game, in which no one RB seemed to establish dominance, followed by a bye, has most fantasy GMs who are holding rookie RB R.J. Harvey wondering whether they’ve got a league-winner or not.
Though no one had elite scoring in their Week 11 tilt with Kansas City, who has been tough on fantasy RBs, the usage was probably more tilted than people realized: Harvey had a 61% snap share, 52% of the team’s rushing attempts, and an 8% target share.
While we would especially want that target share to climb over 10%, this is still a reasonable usage in a high-paced, effective offense that scores TDs. Just this alone, mixed with what we saw of Harvey as a rotational backup, should give Harvey GMs confidence that they’ve at least got an RB2 on their hands.
The Commanders should provide an opportunity to test Harvey against a far less productive defense. The Commanders rank 25th in EPA per rush allowed and 24th in defensive success rate on rushes. This is an opportunity for Harvey to smash; it's just that sometimes Payton seems to get off on being a bit of a fantasy killjoy.
