Quick Slant: TNF - Nothing Matters But Conquering the Moment
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
On the shores of Lake Erie, winter comes as inevitably as rust, and with it, all of its drab skies, fluffy snow, mittened hands, and Seasonal Affective Disorder. In South Florida, summer stretches long overdue again, as it does each September; sunshine permeates the palm fronds and salty sand before the lapping waves of blue water, bringing with it heat as oppressive as chains and humidity as thick as wool.
Between Buffalo and Miami lie two teams with more than a geographical difference. Their rivalry has been churning, going on sixty years—six decades of heartbreak, then redemption, followed by more heartbreak. Today, they are remarkably even, with the Dolphins up 62-60-1, all-time.
Under Don Shula, Miami was unassailable, especially to the fledgling Bills: twenty consecutive wins against Buffalo marked an entire generation’s futility in Sharpie. Buffalo, in turn, surged back in the 1980s and 1990s under Marv Levy’s creative leadership, a battalion of perennial Pro Bowlers, and immortal January fairytales. In those back-and-forth decades, expectations formed: in Miami, that excellence is a birthright; in Buffalo, another chance always awaits.
Today, they find their records as polarized as their mojo. Miami, restless under its own neon spotlight, has grown bored with flashes; it wants consistency—proof that the offense they're known for is substantive, not some empty magic trick where every kid with the slightest inkling knows to look under the tablecloth.
Buffalo, looking for something warm to cling to before the streets become refrozen and the wind off the lake ceases all kindness to humanity—a city forever haunted by the ghost of almost—a fanbase growing twitchy as they witness a new generation vying for the title of the best that never was. It’s not just familiar; at this point, it’s unmissable déjà vu.
Thursday, nothing matters but conquering the moment. For Miami HC Mike McDaniel, a countdown clock is growing unnervingly close to its end. For Buffalo QB Josh Allen, he is being transformed into a new Jim Kelly or Dan Marino—a great player—a Hall of Famer—who could never win the big one.
Dolphins
Implied Team Total: 19
The Dolphins have been the NFL’s worst team through two weeks, ranking last in Pythagorean wins.
The Dolphins have lost to the Colts and Patriots. Either these were bad losses, or these teams are better than people expected.
Some of this seemed promised; the Dolphins were extremely disappointing a year ago, and HC Mike McDaniel entered the season neck and neck with Giants' HC Brian Daboll as most likely to be fired first. But the offense wasn’t supposed to be this way. Through two weeks, Miami has been atrocious, ranking 26th in EPA per play and 16th in offensive success rate.
Miami ranks 12th in pass rate over expected (PROE), showing up as slightly pass-heavy. In total pass rate, they rank first, throwing 74% of the time.
This is primarily because they consistently trail in games; 53 of their 103 total offensive snaps have come from a deficit of seven or more points. Miami’s play volume has been second-lowest in the league through two games, trailing only the Minnesota Vikings.
The Dolphins are led by QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been traditionally among the more efficient QBs in the NFL under McDaniel. This season, he ranks 31st of 34 qualified QBs in EPA per play. He is better in EPA + CPOE composite according to rbsdm.com, ranking 23rd.
Based on EPA stats, Buffalo is the sixth-most prominent run funnel through two games. This is small sample stuff, and the Bills were in a shootout with Baltimore in Week 1, so this is clearly subject to change.
The Dolphins have been worse in the passing game as well, so this would at least seem to bode well for Miami’s run game, which ranks fourth in offensive rush EPA per play (somehow), and RB De’Von Achane.
The Dolphins, again, have had a very low play volume through two games, but Achane has had a hefty 83.7% snap share (2nd), a 66.7% team rush share (6th), and a 22.2% target share (2nd). With such low play volume and high run rates, Achane still only has 18 rushing attempts.
Last season, Achane led the NFL in high-value touches (green zone touches and targets, combined), including 28 green zone touches. Through the first two games this season, he has zero, though, in fairness, the Dolphins only have one (Ollie Gordon). If the Dolphins can’t make it consistently to the green zone, that’s a problem; if Achane surrenders his role around the goal line, that’s another problem. And unfortunately, even though we’ve seen two games of action, we still don’t have many hints.
Achane does still draw plenty of receiving work, which will keep him relevant. He has 14 targets (2nd), 112 yards (3rd), 24.3% of team receiving yards (2nd), two TDs (T-2nd), eight first-read targets (T-3rd), five first downs (2nd), and 126 YAC (1st). I wrote this summer about the significance of RB YAC as a predictive fantasy stat.
At worst, all Achane needs to soar is more play volume; at best, he could reclaim most of the goal-line work whenever these opportunities arise, unlocking legendary upside. Whether or not either can happen is anyone’s guess. The good news is that Achane is insulated by his incredible receiving profile, which should help him remain usable, even if he doesn’t strike the upside we wanted.
The Dolphins’ line has been much maligned. In this matchup, they are expected to have matchups that rank in the middle third, according to Fantasy Points’ Team OL/DL matchups scores.
The worst of the two should come in pass blocking. Still, Tagovailoa has traditionally been decent under pressure, even holding a better QB rating last year under pressure than clean (the only QB in the league to do so).
Despite two high-profile WRs, Achane actually leads the Dolphins in target share at 22%. WR Tyreek Hill is just behind with 21%. WR Jaylen Waddle is the only other Miami pass-catcher who comes in over 15%.
This is still not the concentrated target dispersal we expected to see a year ago; this has been off for over a year now. Oddly, Achane is atop the pyramid; it would seem like this wouldn’t be the case forever. His share is elite for his position; Hill’s and Waddle’s are not.
Hill lacks the mega-efficiency of his past; this dried up a year ago, but seeing it through the first two games seems to all but confirm that those days are behind him. Otherwise, as we peruse his statistical profile this season, the lack of punch from the offense again rears its ugly head. Without sustained drives, there are not enough opportunities for Hill to thrive, particularly without explosives.
Waddle seems even worse. His fantasy points over expected (FPOE) has been better, but he isn’t earning targets at a high rate in this low-volume attack.
The Bills’ defense runs zone 81.1% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Like most of the league, their primary alignment is Cover 3 (28.3%), but they also run a healthy amount of Cover 2 (24.5%). They also sprinkle in a healthy amount of Cover 1 (15.1%) and quarters (17.0%). In two games against Miami last year, the Bills played two-high zones 29.7% and Cover 2 man at 9.5%, consistent with how defenses are known to stifle Hill’s over-the-top production.
Tagovailoa sees a meaningful downturn against Cover 2, scoring just 0.30 FP/dropback (23rd), below his base rate of 0.42 (17th).
Hill earned only 0.28 fantasy points per route against Cover 2 in 2024, well below his normal rate of 0.43 fantasy points (FP) per route. Achane, Waddle, and Jonnu Smith all performed better against Cover 2.
Collectively, the Dolphins faced more Cover 2 in 2024 than any other team. Among players leaguewide with at least 100 routes, Hill’s 27.9% route rate against Cover 2 trailed only RB Trey Sermon of Indianapolis (36.5%), WR Malik Washington (33.3%), RB Raheem Mostert (32.5%), and Smith (29.1%), all of Miami.
A Cover 2 alignment actually favored Achane, who earned 0.51 FP/route and 2.7 yards per route run (YPRR) against it, slightly better than his base rates of 0.50 FP/route and 1.67 YPRR.
Hill still earns the 14th-most air yards in the league in 2025, but his aDOT is just 39th, and he is behind Waddle in first-read target percentage. No Dolphins’ receiver ranks within the top 50 in Fantasy Points’ expected points model (XFP), which is one of the most predictive underlying metrics in fantasy football.
The underlying thesis, of course, is that the Dolphins' passing attack is devoid of much value, the Bills’ pass defense is pretty stout, and it will undoubtedly lean into coverages that the Dolphins’ pass-catchers struggle with. These are the kind of “easy-button” narratives that often fail us, especially on two games’ worth of data, but it's hard not to fade the passing-game components at a minimum.
The bummer, of course, is that, based on one of the widest point spreads of the week, the expectation is that the Bills will play way out in front, which would lead the Dolphins into a trap where they play to their weakness.
And over time, the bigger bummer is that McDaniel, for all his warts, feeds Achane in a way another HC may not. As his job hangs by a thread, Achane's managers should probably root for McDaniel to string together some wins soon; Door No. 2 likely won't be better in this regard.