Quick Slant: TNF - The Understudy
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
The understudy knows his place. He arrives early. He stays late. He studies the script until he knows every line, every cue, every movement. He rehearses with people with whom he will never share the stage. He watches the leading man receive the applause each night when the curtains close.
But despite all of his effort, nobody waits outside the theater for his autograph. The understudy goes home. No one recognizes him as he walks up the sidewalk. His home is modest. His car needs maintenance. Nobody knows how hard he works, how many hours he spends preparing, how much of his life he's devoted to a performance he may never give.
In fact, nobody particularly wants to see him perform – especially this understudy.
The leading man is a legend – an irreplaceable talent, one of the greatest ever to play the part. He’s beloved by his audience, has awards on his mantel, and millions in the bank.
And there's another man just behind him – a respected substitute in his own right. The understudy isn't even the understudy. He's the understudy's understudy. He knows that nobody expects anything from him. He knows he’s a placeholder. A nobody to everybody. He knows all of that.
But of course, he also knows about Brock Purdy. In 2022, Purdy was the last player selected in the NFL Draft, buried behind Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo on San Francisco's depth chart. But Lance broke his ankle; Garoppolo his foot. And the understudy's understudy was suddenly under the harsh solitude of the brightest spotlight.
Purdy won his first start. Then his second. Then his third. And he just kept going. He took the 49ers to the NFC Championship Game, earned the trust of the organization, which shipped the others out, gave him the lead, and let him lead San Francisco to a Super Bowl. Eventually, the organization even lavished him with a starter’s contract. Now, he’s building his own legendary legacy. He is one of the best, and everyone knows it.
The understudy knows this story. Every third-stringer does. It's the lottery ticket they keep folded in their wallets. The possibility that all those hours, all that preparation, all those lonely nights might someday amount to something more than a paycheck and a clipboard.
But when that moment comes, it comes suddenly, and it leaves no room for error. For Joe Fagnano, the clock is already ticking – today, right now. Lamar Jackson is hurt. Tyler Huntley is hurt. Baltimore has run out of leading men. This is the moment; it’s now or never.
But the deck is also clearly stacked. The Ravens aren't betting their future on Fagnano. They’ve already got Jacoby Brissett on a plane with every intention of giving him the gig as soon as he understands the playbook, perhaps before Thursday's performance is even finished. The team's aspirations are incredibly high, but the expectations for Fagnano couldn’t be lower.
The understudy knows what that means. He might have one half – maybe a full game if he’s lucky. One short opportunity, standing under all the weight of the world on a national stage, which serves as microscope for his every movement and facial expression, to convince the people who look past him that they shouldn’t – that they’ve underestimated him. A respectable performance won't do. Nobody changes the casting because the understudy remembered his lines. He has to make them cry, to laugh, to feel. He needs to be extraordinary. He needs to be undeniable, and it needs to happen right this second.
There's something bitter about that. Years of work, reduced to a single audition with everything on the line. A lifetime spent preparing for an opportunity that might disappear with one bad throw, one tricky coverage, or one receiver coming out of his break the wrong direction.
But the understudy isn't asking for sympathy. He's asking for the ball. The understudy understands his place. And Thursday night, he intends to change it.
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5) at Baltimore Ravens
Over/Under: 42.5
Jacksonville ranks third in offensive EPA per play (0.124) and has been considerably better defensively, allowing -0.081 EPA per play. Baltimore has been closer to average on both sides of the ball, averaging 0.017 offensive EPA per play and allowing 0.017 defensively.
Jacksonville ranks eighth in Pythagorean Wins (pacing for 12.9), while Baltimore ranks 24ᵗʰ (pacing for 7.4). The Jaguars are pacing for 12 actual wins, slightly below their underlying expectation. Conversely, Baltimore is pacing for nine, which is slightly better.
Based on EPA per play, Jacksonville has been above average on offense and defense, while Baltimore has been slightly above average on offense and slightly below average on defense.
Jacksonville and Baltimore play at the same relatively slow pace from a neutral script, averaging 30.2 seconds per snap. Across all game scripts, both teams average 60 plays per 60 minutes.
Weather: Thursday evening at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore should be mostly cloudy and mild, with a chance of light rain. Temperatures should be around 67–69° at kickoff, falling into the mid-60s by the fourth quarter. Winds should be light, around 2–4 MPH from the south. Rain remains possible, but conditions are unlikely to affect the game significantly.
Jaguars Key Injuries: Starting RB Bhayshul Tuten (ankle/foot) is questionable after missing practice all week and may be a game-time decision. WR Jakobi Meyers (hamstring/ankle), RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (hand), and starting G Ezra Cleveland (knee/ankle) were limited earlier in the week but carry no final game designation. Starting DE Travon Walker (ribs) is questionable. Starting DT DaVon Hamilton (knee) and S Eric Murray (elbow) have been placed on IR.
Ravens Key Injuries: Starting QB Lamar Jackson (thumb) has been placed on IR, while backup QB Tyler Huntley (toe) has been ruled out and is expected to miss the remainder of the season. Rookie QB Joe Fagnano (ankle) practiced fully on Wednesday and will make his first NFL start. Starting S Jaylinn Hawkins (knee) is out, while starting CB Nate Wiggins (illness) is questionable after missing Wednesday's practice. Starting G Vega Ioane (knee), RB Justice Hill (groin), TE Mark Andrews, and starting LB Roquan Smith (foot) carry no game designations and are expected to play.
JAGUARS
Implied Team Total: 26
The Jaguars have been one of the NFL's most effective offenses, ranking third in EPA per play (0.124). They rank fifth in dropback EPA (0.228) and sixth in EPA per rush (-0.005).
Jacksonville has been considerably more run-oriented than expected, ranking 27ᵗʰ in PROE (-4.79%).
QB Trevor Lawrence has been effective despite relatively modest passing volume, averaging 28.3 attempts on 31.4 dropbacks per game (27ᵗʰ and 28ᵗʰ, respectively). He has averaged 241.4 passing YDs/G (15ᵗʰ), with a relatively aggressive 9.1 aDOT (T-7ᵗʰ).
Lawrence has been far more efficient, averaging 0.25 EPA per pass (6th) and a 52.5% positive EPA rate (7th). He also ranks second in passing TD/G (2.43) and first in passing TD rate (8.6%), generating 5.66 passing FPOE/G (T-1ˢᵗ). His TD production has been exceptional, although sustaining that level of efficiency will be difficult.
Lawrence has contributed little as a runner, averaging just 11.4 rushing YDs/G and 1.14 rushing FP/G. His fantasy production has come almost entirely through the air, where he has generated 5.51 FPOE/G (4th) despite averaging just 16.3 EP/G (24ᵗʰ).
Baltimore has been considerably more effective against the run than the pass. The Ravens allow 0.077 EPA per dropback and -0.078 EPA per rush, ranking 18th overall in defensive EPA per play (0.017).
Baltimore plays zone on 79.3% of defensive plays, with a heavy emphasis on two-high safeties (60.0%). Their most common coverages are Cover 3 (31.0%) and Cover 4 (21.3%). They blitz at a 31.8% rate.
The PFF Matchup tool, which considers player grades and projected personnel matchups, grades Lawrence's assignment as good, with Baltimore ranking 20ᵗʰ among defenses in its matchup assessment. Fantasy Points' Coverage Matchup tool projects a slight advantage for Lawrence, giving him an expected +0.7% upgrade in FP/DB.
Over their last five games, the Ravens have allowed 20.9 PPR/G to QBs (9ᵗʰ), surrendering 19.2 EP/G (15ᵗʰ). Opposing QBs have produced 1.7 FPOE/G (10ᵗʰ), suggesting Baltimore has allowed somewhat more efficient production than expected, rather than an unusually high volume of opportunities.
Baltimore has been more effective against the run than the pass, which would normally encourage Jacksonville to lean more heavily on Lawrence. However, the Jaguars have been relatively run-oriented despite their passing efficiency and are heavy favorites to play from a positive game script. Lawrence remains a highly appealing fantasy option in a favorable matchup and should be played nearly everywhere, but game context may cap his upside.
Over their last five games, TE Brenton Strange (30) has led Jacksonville with 29 targets, followed by WR Parker Washington and WR Jakobi Meyers (28). WR Brian Thomas Jr. has drawn just 10 targets over that span, as his role in the offense has continued to diminish.
Washington has emerged as Jacksonville's most productive WR. He has a 24.47% target share (14ᵗʰ), 6.57 targets/G (28ᵗʰ), and 5.43 first-read targets/G (T-28ᵗʰ). His 2.27 YPRR (15ᵗʰ) and 26% TPRR (T-18ᵗʰ) have also been strong.
Meyers has been less productive, with a 16.49% target share (42nd), 4.43 targets/G (56th), and 3.57 first-read targets/G (T-53ʳᵈ). His 1.64 YPRR (38ᵗʰ) and 19% TPRR (T-47ᵗʰ) have been relatively ordinary.
Thomas has become difficult to justify in fantasy lineups. His declining usage has left him well behind Washington and Meyers in Jacksonville's target distribution, and there is little reason to expect reliable production without a substantial change in his role. With trade speculation surrounding Thomas, a move elsewhere could eventually improve his outlook, but he is nearly unstartable in his current situation.
Over their last five games, Baltimore has allowed 34.6 PPR/G to WRs (12ᵗʰ), including 30.1 EP/G (18ᵗʰ) and 4.5 FPOE/G (9ᵗʰ). The Ravens have allowed relatively ordinary receiving opportunities, but opposing WRs have been more efficient than expected.
According to Fantasy Points' Coverage Matchup tool, which evaluates how a player has historically performed against the types and rates of coverage his opponent uses, Washington is projected for a 2.3% downgrade against Baltimore's defensive coverages. Meyers receives a 1.6% downgrade.
The more personnel-based PFF Matchup tool rates Washington's assignment as good, while Meyers receives a fair matchup grade. Thomas’s matchup is graded as poor. Washington has the strongest combination of opportunity, efficiency, and matchup among Jacksonville's WRs.
Strange has also become a significant part of Jacksonville's passing game. He has an 18.62% target share (11ᵗʰ), 5 targets/G (T-16ᵗʰ), and 3.86 first-read targets/G (T-14ᵗʰ). His 24% TPRR (T-8ᵗʰ) and 2.26 YPRR (fourth) have been particularly impressive, although his 66.4% route participation (15ᵗʰ) somewhat limits his overall opportunity.
Strange has scored just one TD on 334 receiving YDs, making him one of the more significant positive TD regression candidates among TEs. His efficiency and target involvement suggest considerably more fantasy upside than his TD production attests.
Baltimore has been particularly effective at limiting TE opportunities. Over their last five games, the Ravens have allowed just 13.9 PPR/G (19ᵗʰ), including 11.1 EP/G (27ᵗʰ). However, opposing TEs have produced 2.8 FPOE/G (sixth), suggesting their relatively modest fantasy production has come more from limited opportunity than poor efficiency.
According to Fantasy Points' Coverage Matchup tool, Strange is projected for a slight 1.9% upgrade against Baltimore's defensive coverages. The PFF Matchup tool rates his assignment as fair.
When Jacksonville has the ball, the battle in the trenches is expected to be relatively even in both passing and rushing.
RB Bhayshul Tuten has been Jacksonville's primary rushing option, although his availability for Thursday's game remains uncertain.
Tuten has averaged 15.7 carries/G (T-14ᵗʰ), playing 56% of Jacksonville's offensive snaps (T-22ⁿᵈ). He has been effective with those opportunities, averaging 4.47 YPC (T-18ᵗʰ), 3.71 MTF/G (8th), and 3.57 rushing 1Ds/G (15ᵗʰ). His 91.2 PFF rushing grade ranks first among RBs, and his 0.04 rushing FPOE/A (T-19ᵗʰ) suggests he has been reasonably efficient relative to expectation.
Tuten has also contributed as a receiver, although his opportunities have been limited. He has run 12.7 routes/G (27ᵗʰ), with 38.1% route participation (23ʳᵈ), drawing 2.29 targets/G (27ᵗʰ) and an 8.51% target share (21ˢᵗ). However, his 2.03 YPRR ranks fourth among RBs, and he has averaged 25.9 receiving YDs/G (10ᵗʰ).
Despite those encouraging numbers, a large percentage of Tuten's opportunities have been low-value. His 83.2% LVT rate ranks 10ᵗʰ among RBs. He has averaged just 0.429 targets inside the 20 per game (T-15ᵗʰ), and his 32% team opportunity share (T-16ᵗʰ) leaves room for improvement.
He ranks eighth of 50 RBs in provisional Apex Score (8.21), reflecting an encouraging combination of rushing efficiency, receiving ability, and production.
Baltimore has been an unusual matchup for opposing RBs. Over their last five games, the Ravens have allowed just 18.8 PPR/G (26ᵗʰ), despite surrendering 23.3 EP/G (13ᵗʰ) and -4.5 FPOE/G (30ᵗʰ). Opposing RBs have received a reasonable amount of expected opportunity, but have been considerably less productive than expected. The Ravens have been especially effective at preventing RBs from converting opportunities into fantasy points.
