Sunday Night Walkthrough Week 11: The Enemy Speaks Kindly & Holds a Knife
Lions at Eagles, 8:20 PM
Lions
Implied Team Total: 22
Dan Campbell's decision to take over play-calling duties has generally been praised—that's usually the case when a change precedes a 44-point offensive explosion.
And Campbell definitely set himself up for success by taking over playcalling ahead of a matchup with the Commanders, arguably the slowest defense in the NFL.
However, I do think this change matters going forward. Campbell's Lions have long been built around the run. But they've also consistently been aggressive. They consistently put up big point totals and, more than anything, they play to win.
With John Morton as play caller, the Lions were consistently conservative, failing to post a PROE above -4% all season. Campbell came in and immediately attacked a weak Commanders' secondary head-on.
This approach (and the soft matchup) revived Jared Goff, who turned in his best game of the season since the Lions walloped the Bears.
Goff now ranks QB8 in EPA per game and QB2 in success rate. It was shaky for a minute there, but he's having a very strong season.
The Lions still only passed 53% of the time last week. They were far from passing-heavy in the typical sense of the word, despite passing more than game script strictly called for. But Campbell taking over playcalling should help shift Detroit's offensive identity from one built around the run back to something better—a run-first mindset but an identity built around scoring more points than the opponent.
With a tough matchup against the Eagles on tap, that distinction really matters. The Eagles aren't an elite pass defense, but they are rushing the passer well.
Meanwhile, the Lions' offensive line is banged up. LG Christian Mahogany remains out, and both of their starting tackles, Penei Sewell (Ankle - DNP/LP/DNP) and Taylor Decker (Shoulder - LP/LP/DNP), are playing through injuries. However, both were able to suit up last week, and both probably end up playing again. Even if one ends up being out, reserve tackle Dan Skipper looks capable of filling in without a significant dropoff. If both Decker and Sewell are ruled out, though, that would be a much bigger deal. It's unlikely, but something to monitor before kickoff.
In coverage, the Eagles are good but not great. The weak link is their second outside corner. Their top two corners, Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, have been excellent. Among 108 qualifying corners, DeJean ranks 14th-best in yards allowed per coverage snap and represents a difficult matchup for Amon-Ra St. Brown in the slot. Quinyon Mitchell (CB27) is a tough draw for St. Brown or Jameson Williams on the outside. Kelee Ringo has been much less impressive, ranking just CB64. And Ringo played behind Adoree' Jackson last week (CB94). There should be opportunities for both St. Brown and Williams here on the outside, given that St. Brown only spends about half of his snaps in the slot.
Opportunities will also condense to the Lions' top WRs with Sam LaPorta out with a back injury.
Sam LaPorta was a key part of the offense last week, posting his highest first-read target rate of the year.
LaPorta has been playing very well this year. He had a solid role in the offense, but he's also very talented. His absence will hurt.
Brock Wright is the next man up at tight end, but is in the Dawson Knox " I really hope this guy catches a TD" zone.
Last week, with the playsheet in Campbell's hands instead of Morton's, Jameson Williams was a much bigger priority. His 22% first-read target rate tied his season high, as did his 3.72 YPRR. Williams is less of an obvious focal point for a sharp play caller in this matchup. His speed was a massive mismatch opportunity against the Commanders, which Campbell clearly recognized.
But even if the matchup influenced last week's usage, it's still telling that Campbell prioritized getting Williams involved after he was a complete afterthought for most of Morton's tenure as playcaller.
So, while I'm not yet sold that Williams turned in a true 2025 breakout game, I did find last week genuinely encouraging. With LaPorta now out and the Lions again having a reason to turn to Williams, he's a high-end WR3.
Against the Commanders, even with Williams and LaPorta seeing strong first-read target rates, St. Brown remained the clear focal point of the offense.
Last week, Goff was more efficiently connecting with his first reads, regardless of who the read was. This points to Goff trusting what he was seeing and to Campbell being in a good rhythm, calling the right plays for the right coverages. But... it's another reminder that the Commanders' defense stinks. The Eagles are a much more difficult test that will limit Goff's ability to point and shoot.
Still, even though this isn't an ideal matchup, Brown is a bet-on-talent WR1.
Ahead of Week 10, there was some buzz that Isaac TeSlaa would get more run. And, I guess that was sort of true. He didn't run many routes, but he got one first-read target, which he turned into his first catch since Week 5.
TeSlaa is a big, dirty-work type receiver; he almost seems like a pseudo tight end. But he's played 74% of his snaps out wide, with just 25% in the slot and a single in-line snap. So, it's possible he benefits from LaPorta being out, but I doubt it.
Kalif Raymond still looks like the No. 3 WR here.
With Campbell running the offense, Jahmyr Gibbs turned in a very strong rushing performance, turning 15 carries into 142 yards and two TDs. However, the credit really goes to Gibbs here, who turned in an elite performance. Gibbs rushed for 49 RYOE and hit 20+ mph on a 43-yard TD run.
Concerningly, though, David Montgomery matched Gibbs with 15 carries. On one hand, the Lions beat the Commanders 44-22; they didn't need to lean on Gibbs here. On the other hand, Montgomery only out-carried Gibbs five to three in the 4th quarter. And that 43-yard scamper? That was with 12:50 left in the 4th to put the Lions up 41-16. Gibbs benefitted from garbage time, if anything.
So, even with an obvious talent gap here, we're still looking at a split backfield.
David Montgomery is going to mix in here, but with an uninspiring profile, he's very TD dependent.
The Eagles' run defense isn't great, but it's not bad either, limiting Montgomery to RB3 value.
Gibbs' usage makes him big-play and receiving-dependent... but he's one of the best big-play and receiving RBs in the NFL. He's an RB1.
