The Rashee Rice Fallout: Legal Details, an Inevitable Suspension, and the Resulting Fantasy Impact

On March 30, 2024, two black sports cars tore up Central Expressway in Dallas at 119 MPH — a Chevrolet Corvette and a Lamborghini Urus — when a silver Malibu in the far left lane was suddenly caught between them. One car clipped the Malibu’s left flank, the other struck its rear. All three vehicles spun out, setting off a chain reaction that pulled several others into bedlam. The Corvette came to rest on the right shoulder, crumpled against the retaining wall. The Urus coasted to a stop in reverse, straddling the second-to-right lane, its emergency lights flashing before it had even settled. The passenger door flung open, and three somebodies spilled out, scuttling toward the shoulder, then eventually fleeing the scene.

The man in white, it was later determined, was Rashee Rice, WR for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Rice avoided punishment a year ago, then sustained an injury that cost him almost the entirety of the season, yet his fantasy value only grew. He had been on a tear to end 2023, the fantasy WR14 overall from Weeks 9-17. Through the first three games in 2024, he was the WR2, but an unfortunate friendly-fire Mahomes shoulder to his right LCL and PLC while attempting a tackle forced him out for the season.

Throughout the nearly yearlong stretch since, legal consequences for the incident — which occurred just blocks from SMU, where Rice played college ball — continued to stall. He appeared set to enter 2025 with, yet again, no resolution to his legal matters in place.

Rice began screaming up the Underdog charts, climbing from an ADP of 38 overall in late April to 21 by the week of July 7. But in a surprise announcement on Thursday, July 17, with no warning to the public, Rice accepted a plea bargain, and a sentence of five years’ probation, 30 days of weekend jail time, community service, and restitution was handed down by Dallas County Judge Kim Bailey Phipps.

The announcement abruptly changed both his legal outlook and the fantasy landscape. While technically jail time, the weekend terms mean he will maintain most of his daily life and professional obligations, but with a legal sentence now adjudicated, the prevailing assumption is that a league suspension of 2–10 games will follow.

A QUICK ASIDE

Before continuing, I should first acknowledge that Rice pled guilty to and was convicted of a real crime with real victims, one of which was a third-degree felony. Up to six people were affected, two hospitalized, with at least one facing injuries that may linger for life. Rice initially fled the scene, though he later turned himself in and cooperated (a cynic might note that his identity was already public by then, but to give him the minimum amount of credit, he did eventually take full ownership without excuses). No one was killed, but the outcome could’ve been far worse. Henry Ruggs remains a sobering parallel with similar choices and far more tragic consequences.

This article focuses on the fantasy football fallout from Rice’s decisions — but with full acknowledgment that this lens is secondary to the pain, trauma, and near-catastrophe experienced by real people. What happened was both ominous and providential — Rice, both blameworthy and fortunate.

BEFORE HIS INJURY, RICE WAS HIM

Dating back to Week 12 of 2023, Rice has been the WR5 overall in nine total games.  

Rice is a low aDOT player, having hit 5.0 in 2023 and 5.2 in 2024 in a shortened season. He works best at or around the line of scrimmage, and especially in the middle of the field.

Rice went about 50/50 on routes from the slot or out wide in both 2023 and 2024, but he has only been targeted on routes of 20 or more yards eight times in his first two seasons, with only two catches. 79% of his career targets have come on routes shorter than ten yards.

Where Rice excels is in yards after catch (YAC), where he has led all NFL WRs by leaps and bounds in the nine games from Week 12 of 2023 to Week 3 of 2024, dusting second-ranked CeeDee Lamb by a ridiculous 120 yards.

And since the start of his career, Rice has led the NFL in YAC per game (min. 2 targets/game).

Matt Harmon of Reception Perception and Jacob Gibbs of CBS Fantasy Football Today have each conducted extensive research on specific route concepts in fantasy football. Recently, while posting about Tetairoa McMillan’s fit in Carolina, Gibbs posted on X that horizontal routes are far more likely to draw a target than vertical routes.

Just 11% of Rice’s routes were vertically-breaking in 2024 – a tiny number – and his targets per route run (TPRR) on horizontal routes was 40% (for context, Puka Nacua’s league-leading TPRR among WRs with at least 100 routes was 38%), and his yards per route run (YPRR) was an otherworldly 5.13 YPRR.

Rice ran an overwhelmingly higher percentage of hitches and crossers in 2024 – almost 50% of his total routes combined.

Rice has been incredibly efficient, earning high double-digit fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) in each of his first two seasons, ranking 21^st among all WRs in FPOE/G in 2023 and 4^th in 2024, and his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR) has been elite, ranking first in the NFL in 2023 and third in 2024 (keep in mind that Rice left the Week 4 contest with 6:16 remaining in the first quarter without logging an offensive stat).

In the first three games last year, Rice was tied for third in the league in targets, second in yards, third in target market share, second in yardage market share, second in YPRR, first in yards after contact, second in first-read targets, second in first downs, and, of course, first in YAC.

Rice is in the Deebo, ASRB, and Godwin family, and he could legitimately be better than all of them.

But such bold claims are best holstered for now. The sample size remains small, and Rice faces two uphill battles: recovering from a serious injury and awaiting a likely suspension. With so much in flux, it feels like a stretch to honor Rice with such a lofty set of comparables after a brief, albeit impressive, nine-game stretch. And yet, such high standing can’t be ruled out either.

THE POSSIBLE LEAGUE DISCIPLINE, THE CHIEFS’ POSSIBLE ANSWERS

Rice’s case falls somewhere between the non-injury incidents involving Chris Olave and Jordan Addison — both of whom were cited for reckless driving (with Addison also cited for DUI) — and Ruggs, which resulted in a fatality.

Rice’s actions led to multiple injuries and a felony conviction, placing his case in a murky middle with no clear precedent under the NFL’s personal conduct policy, and making suspension projections especially difficult.

Most expect a multi-game ban. While many peg it in the 2-to-6-game range, Mike Florio, who has a legal background, believes it could land closer to 6 to 10 games. The league is expected to rule before Week 1, with Rice likely accepting the terms and serving the suspension immediately.

We don’t yet know the final number, but at this point, it’s safe to assume Rice will miss games to start 2025, and fantasy managers should plan accordingly. We may have some clues as to how the Chiefs intend to attack defenses while Rice is sidelined — whenever, and for however long, that may be.

If Rice gets a two-game suspension, his 34.1 Underdog ADP (WR18) is justified. If it turns into 10 games, he’s undeniably overvalued and can’t come close to paying off that price. And so, if we consider the inevitable suspension, which we know is coming, he's being priced at his ceiling, even now.

One likely scenario is that Rice’s ADP will fall after the suspension is announced, at which point his price tag will become more amenable. Given that a suspension is certain and the market isn’t fully reacting, fantasy GMs of all types should play as if this knowledge is already foregone and therefore, take Rice at least a round lower than where he’s currently going. If fantasy GMs aren’t getting that discount in drafts, they should likely be prone to pass.

Whether or not Rice is suspended is a binary question; the wide range of possible sentences is not. The fact is, we simply can't know how long the suspension will be, and so personal risk tolerance becomes the final arbiter.

Scooping Rice when he falls in best ball is one thing, but what about in a home league or high stakes league contest? In those settings, I couldn’t confidently assert paying even a fifth-rounder for Rice, knowing the worst-case scenario could tank his entire season (though I'd still go for it).

For high-volume drafters building diversified portfolios, some exposure at a slightly reduced ADP is reasonable in case things break positively within the range of outcomes. Just understand that these builds could be buried before the season even starts if the maximum punishment is handed down.

If the suspension is early and short, Rice at a fifth-round cost is not only survivable; it's a bargain, considering your team will be at full strength, with no bye weeks and (ideally) no injuries in the opening stretch, giving you ample resources to bail water out of the boat. Of course, some fantasy managers won’t willingly climb aboard a leaky vessel to begin with. But I’ll do a lot of crazy things in the name of upside, and few players can match Rice’s ceiling in a single game.

CANDIDATES TO PICK UP THE SLACK

XAVIER WORTHY