Week 1 Walkthrough: Thomas the Tank Engine
Welcome to the Week 1 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the first glorious football Sunday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
Quick Links:
- Panthers at Jaguars, 1 PM
- Buccaneers at Falcons, 1 PM
- Bengals at Browns, 1 PM
- Dolphins at Colts, 1 PM
- Raiders at Patriots, 1 PM
- Cardinals at Saints, 1 PM
- Steelers at Jets, 1 PM
- Giants at Commanders, 1 PM
- Titans at Broncos, 4:05 PM
- 49ers at Seahawks, 4:05 PM
- Lions at Packers, 4:25 PM
- Texans at Rams, 4:25 PM
Panthers at Jaguars, 1 PM
Panthers Implied Team Total: 21.5
Two years ago, Bryce Young was legitimately bad. Like, Zach Wilson bad.
Last year, he was better. But, ya know, he did get benched after just two games. He was awful against both the Saints and Chargers to open 2024.
But returning to the starting lineup against Denver in Week 8, he was better. He even turned in some high-end efficiency at points last year.
Still, Young did not have a very good season overall. His efficiency was in line Russell Wilson and C.J. Stroud, and similar to Caleb Williams. Wilson is now a bridge QB. Stroud is working with a new OC on a bounce-back campaign. Williams is working with an entirely new staff to avoid being labeled a bust.
This is a make-or-break year for both Young and Dave Canales.
The good news is that they can ease into the 2025 season with a matchup against one of 2024's worst defenses. And the the Jaguars' defense probably won't be much better this year.
Although Young struggled badly at times last year, the Panthers were not afraid to pass the ball. This actually undercut offseason rhetoric about the importance of the run game. The Panthers proved that, while they'd prefer to play from ahead with an efficient run game, they weren't going to hide from a fight.
The Panthers didn't have much of a choice but to pass last year; their defense couldn't stop anyone. Like with the Jaguars defense, there's not much cause for optimism headed into 2025.
This game is a classic example of two offenses that should be able and willing to push each other.
The Panthers have the added advantage of being able to play balanced here if it's a back-and-forth affair.
The Jaguars couldn't stop the run last year, either.
Chuba Hubbard is coming off a very impressive 2024 season. He wasn't at the level of Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley as an ultra-efficient runner, but he was the next closest thing. Hubbard offers very little as a receiver, but he should have a strong rushing workload in a good matchup. He's an RB2.
Rico Dowdle offers a similar profile to Hubbard, but is a pale imitation. I'm expecting him to mix in some, but functionally operate as a backup.
At receiver, Tetairoa McMillan steps in as the Panthers immediate No. 1 WR. With Jalen Coker on injured reserve and Adam Thielen back in Minnesota, McMillan's competition at WR is a recently-unretired, waived, and then re-signed Hunter Renfrow, and renowned foody Xavier Legette.
Legette was not impressive in his rookie season. He struggled to get open and didn't connect well on his targets. It's possible, though, that McMillan's presence allows the Panthers to use Legette more creatively – taking advantage of some of his YAC appeal on shallower targets – instead of asking him to win downfield. Still, he won't be the focal point.
McMillan was a highly-productive WR in college, a top-10 pick in the NFL draft, and immediately installed as the Panthers starting X WR. That is all extremely bullish. He's a strong bet to produce quickly, and profiles as a low-end WR2.
Ja'Tavion Sanders' route participation remains a big question. He was in a rotation last year, and ran a route on just 54% of dropbacks. But in this game environment, he's in the dart-throw mix as a bet that he takes on a bigger role in his second season.
Jaguars Implied Team Total: 25
In 2021, Trevor Lawrence was concerningly inefficient. But we chalked that up to Urban Meyer, who turned in the worst head coaching stint in recent memory.
In 2022, our faith was rewarded. Lawrence had a very impressive success rate, while also dramatically improving in EPA per game.
He was less impressive in 2023, but still solid.
Then, last year, Lawrence faltered once again. Things weren't as bad as his rookie campaign, but his fourth season raised doubts about Lawrence's NFL ceiling.
Lawrence's 2024 struggles were coupled with an offensive approach that didn't fully embrace the pass. Given how bad their defense was, the Jaguars could have easily justified passing the ball more than the Seahawks (672 dropbacks). Instead, they passed fewer times than the 49ers (625 dropbacks) and Cardinals (616 dropbacks) with just 607 dropbacks. Jacksonville was also well behind the Bucs (658 dropbacks), whose offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, is now the Jaguars' head coach.
Pass rate was a big part of the issue here, but not the only one.
The Jaguars actually played fast last year, ranking fifth in seconds per play. But the Jaguars ranked dead last in time of possession; they simply didn't have the ball enough.
Meanwhile, the Bucs ranked third in time of possession—on average, they possessed the ball for 4:48 longer than the Jaguars did. That... makes a difference.
The Jaguars' defense projects to be a sieve once again this year. So, stopping opponents and getting the ball back will still be an issue.
However, this highlights how Liam Coen's potential to improve the offense can pay dividends in multiple ways. Efficient offense means an offense that moves the chains, an offense that retains possession.
If Coen has the goods, the Jaguars should easily be able to do that here.
And Coen won't have to be overly reliant on the pass. As bad as the Panthers were against the pass last year, they were even worse against the run.
The Panthers' run defense was so bad that—despite not being able to stop the pass—they were a massive run funnel.
Unfortunately, the Jaguars' backfield is one of the murkier ones in the league. It's possible we're looking at a three-way split for touches between Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby, and Bhayshul Tuten. Even 7th-round rookie LeQuint Allen has gotten some buzz this summer.
But this week, Bigsby looks like the best bet. The Jaguars are 3.5-point home favorites and are unlikely to be stuck in negative game script here. Instead, they're likely to trade punches with the Panthers—as both offenses take advantage of atrocious opposing defenses. Bigsby fits that plan well; he was a much better runner than Travis Etienne last year.
While Bigsby wasn't amazing as a runner, he was reasonably impressive. Etienne, meanwhile, was a liability.
And although Etienne was better as a receiving back, he was still far from being a difference-maker.
It was a similar story in 2023, with Etienne breaking some tackles and hitting more long runs, but largely disappointing as a runner, with a mediocre receiving profile as well.
Bigby isn't anything more than a TD-dependent RB3 this week, but Etienne looks like a stay-away. To be viable, Etienne needs to prove he actually has a strong grip on this backfield, rather than being a starter in name only.
At recevier, things are more exciting. Travis Hunter should be one of the most captivating stories of the entire season, as he attempts to play as a true two-way player.
His offensive opportunity is extremely difficult to project. Still, I think we can be confident that when on the field as a WR, the Jaguars will be looking to take advantage of those snaps—they'll be looking to feed Hunter.
But Hunter is a rookie, in his first game, attempting to do something unprecedented. Even if his targets per route run are through the roof, he's unlikely to be the true focal point of the passing game. The Jaguars don't need him to be. They have one of the most talented young WRs in the game. They have Brian Thomas.
Last year, Thomas showed the ability to get open, both intermediate and deep, to consistently earn targets, and to produce efficiently when given those targets. Under Coen, expect Thomas to move around the formation more frequently—being installed as the true engine of the Jags offense. In a game environment with shootout potential, he's an elite WR1.
Brenton Strange should also benefit from this new-look offense. When James Gladstone and Liam Coen took over the Jaguars this offseason, they were not shy about jettisoning veteran starters—dealing Christian Kirk to the Texans, and releasing Evan Engram and Gabe Davis. But they immediately identified Strange as a player they wanted to see more from. Strange has since locked down a clear-cut starting role. Strange flashed in 2024, albeit in a limited sample. He's a potential breakout tight end for 2025, and gets a good matchup to kick things off. He's a TE2.
