Week 10 Walkthrough: Jimbo Hits the Jets
Welcome to the Week 10 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 10th glorious football Sunday of 2026.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Bills at Jets, 1 PM
- Chiefs at Falcons, 1 PM
- Texans at Browns, 1 PM
- Jaguars at Titans, 1 PM
- Dolphins at Colts, 1 PM
- Panthers at Saints, 1 PM
- Vikings at Packers, 1 PM
- Seahawks at Raiders, 4:05 PM
- Rams at Cardinals, 4:05 PM
- 49ers at Cowboys, 4:25 PM
Bills at Jets, 1 PM
Bills
Implied Team Total: 29.5
Josh Allen is coming off a matchup with the Vikings defense, leading to his least efficient outing of the season.
But it's not like Allen cratered in Minnesota. He turned in positive EPA and a respectable 52% success rate.
Still, as expected, the Bills leaned on the run against Minnesota. Teams are increasingly playing power football against the Vikings' defense.
The Bills turned in their lowest pass rate of the season last week... but not by a wide margin. They've now posted a pass rate of 51% or lower in half of their games.
The Bills are generally more interested in dictating the run than in featuring their passing game.
The Bills now get a Jets run defense that has not been impressive this year. The Bills are are also 8-point road favorites.
The Jets are neither a run funnel nor a pass funnel. You can do what you want against this defense.
We've seen teams be aggressive against the Jets, and teams be very conservative. Given their recent performances, the Bills look likely to have a lean to the run. If the Jets push back, the Bills' pass rate could end up being solid, but they're unlikely to post a high PROE unless this game gets really out of control.
The good news for the passing game is that the Jets are terrible against play action, while also seeing it at a high rate. The Bills are running play action at the highest rate in the NFL; it's core to their identity.
On play action dropbacks, Josh Allen is averaging 9.1 yards per attempt, with 8.3 YPA without play action. It's a small boost to his efficiency. But given what could be limited play volume, I'll take it.
The larger takeaway is really just that regardless of play type... Allen has been extremely efficient this season.
Allen now gets a Jets defense that has been extremely vulnerable to the pass.
The Jets held up pretty well to start the season, but they've been getting consistently shredded for weeks now.
The fact is that if the Bills wanted to absolultely demolish the Jets pass defense in this game—if they were told that scoring anything under 40 points would count as a loss—they easily could. It's hard to see the Bills operating with that kind of urgency. But the upside for a huge day still exists.
DJ Moore is the safest way (outside of Allen, of course) to play the passing game. Moore has earned targets at an impressive rate while also delivering strong efficiency. With his health no longer looking like a major factor, Moore is a low-end WR2 here.
With the Bills playing more power football last week, Khalil Shakir saw the field less.
Keon Coleman's role was largely unaffected, although he dealt with significant double coverage, which didn't go great.
The Bills could end up being run-heavy this week, but this matchup really lets them do what they want. Unlike last week, they don't have a specific defensive challenge that they need to crack. If they're pounding the rock, it's much more likely to be from a position of strength, like against the Ravens in Week 8... when Shakir posted 82% route participation. With that in mind, I'm good to go back to Shakir here as a low-end WR3. Coleman is a WR5.
Dalton Kincaid is coming off just 61% route participation against the Vikings, his second-lowest mark of the season. But given how much the Vikings put pass-catching TEs in a bind, I assumed he'd play even less.
Kincaid is likely to be in a part-time role again this week, but the Bills clearly want him on the field for a healthy portion of their dropbacks, even when playing power football. And when on the field, Kincaid has been a priority. He's a low-end TE1.
Through the Bills' first four games of the season, James Cook was averaging 17.5 carries per game. Over his last four, he's up to 24.8 carries per game, including a season-high 31 against the Vikings.
Cook has been an elite rusher this year, and even if the Bills are aggressive this week... eventually they are likely to lean on Cook to salt away the game. It's also possible he's heavily involved from the jump. Cook is a high-end RB1.
Jets
Implied Team Total: 21
Geno Smith has generally played well this season, profiling as a solid starter.
That's not what Smith looked like last week, though.
Against the Chiefs, Smith turned in his worst efficiency of the season, and his second-worst success rate.
With Garrett Wilson out of the lineup, Smith was attempting to connect downfield with Adonai Mitchell. He was zero for seven.
Smith is likely to get Wilson back, which is great news. He also gets a Bills defense that doesn't look great on paper.
The Bills defense has completely beaten up on their last two opponents, though. Granted, those QBs were Joe Fagnano and Carson Wentz. Still, both passers were absolutely decimated.
With Wilson back, Smith should be efficient here. But, likely chasing points, that's not a lock.
The Jets are also not a lock to be aggressive in this matchup. In their 35-12 loss last week, the Jets fought against negative game script, which is pretty typical for them.
Despite being 2-7 and on a four-game losing streak, the Jets haven't turned in a 65%+ pass rate since back in Week 3.
With Breece Hall back in the lineup, the Jets are at full strength in the backfield again. They could view the time-of-possession game as one of their better paths in this matchup.
In his return to the lineup, Hall operated as the lead runner. Oddly, he did not lead the way in route volume, though.
Braelon Allen led the Jets in snaps and routes last week. This was likely a way to keep Hall fresh, more than signaling their division of work moving forward.
Hall has been a far better receiver than Allen.
Allen's receiving profile is unimpressive. But he's been an excellent runner.
This week, I expect Hall's snaps to increase, which could push him into a workhorse role. I think it's more likely that the Jets find a role for Allen, though. And even after last week, I have to assume that Allen's snaps will be more tilted to the run than the pass, which suits both his and Hall's skill sets. After all, even with just 21% route participation, Hall posted a very strong 14% target share against the Chiefs.
Against a below-average Bills run defense, Allen is an RB4 as a bet on a TD. Hall shapes up as a high-end RB3.
Garrett Wilson's return to the offense should dramatically improve Geno Smith's ability to move the chains. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a higher open score than Wilson this year. He's dominating targets by truly earning them.
The Jets could also post their highest pass rate in many weeks here. The Bills aren't exactly a pass funnel. Teams have a 0% PROE against them. But because the Bills have such a potent offense, it's hard not to end up passing at a high rate anyway.
Did the Vikings want to pass 77% of the time last week? Definitely not. They still ended up doing it as they grew increasingly desperate in their 23-6 loss.
The Jets will probably look to fight game script here, but that could still lead to a high pass rate. With the Jets likely to be in negative game script, Wilson is a low-end WR1.
Omar Cooper is coming off his highest route participation of the season, and he combined with Adonai Mitchell to pick up the slack left behind by Wilson last week. However, Cooper posted a very shallow 1.2 aDOT, operating as a YAC-dependent slot WR.
With Wilson back in the lineup, we can expect Mitchell to be a dedicated field stretcher with Cooper and an underneath ball-in-hand threat. Both shape up as low-end WR3s as a bet on the Jets needing to chase here.
At tight end, Mason Taylor is barely holding off Kenyon Sadiq, who posted 53% route participation last week.
Given how Taylor has played over the last two weeks, we could see Sadiq flip him soon.
When that happens, Sadiq will be an interesting player. But it's hard to front-run Sadiq's emergence given the potential for sub-50% route participation. Meanwhile, Taylor looks like a very uninspiring play as a part-time TE.
Chiefs at Falcons, 1 PM
Chiefs
Implied Team Total: 25.5
On Tuesday, the Chiefs sent a 4th-round and a 5th-round pick to the Colts in exchange for Josh Downs. Downs seems pretty psyched about it.
— JD (@JoshDowns) November 10, 2026
Josh Downs has been inefficient this year. And with one of the highest slot rates in the NFL, he has some overlap with Rashee Rice. That's the bad news.
The good news is that Downs has been getting open, despite frequently seeing very high double coverage rates.
Downs also offers the Chiefs a true man-beating threat that they don't have right now, in the slot or otherwise.
Career yards per route run against man, per Next Gen Stats data:
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 10, 2026
Josh Downs: 1.89
Rashee Rice: 1.27
Against zone:
Josh Downs: 1.62
Rashee Rice: 3.10
Rice has also been playing outside more this season. Like Downs, he's likely to have a fairly shallow route tree, but I don't expect Rice to see the field any less with Downs in the fold. And they earn targets in different ways.
Once Downs is fully installed in the offense, we'll probably see Rice's target rate drop. The Chiefs are a few weeks away from not needing to rely on scam targets quite as much.
But Downs will be playing in this game less than a week into his Chiefs career. He'll be in a limited role. His impact will likely be felt most in the Chiefs' overall approach to the game—he may push them a bit more toward the pass.
If you don't want to pass against the Falcons, you definitely don't have to. The Bucs conclusively proved that in their Week 8 shutout win. However, if you view the passing game as the engine of your offense, this is a matchup where you can lean into that, as the Bengals just showed.
Patrick Mahomes hasn't quite been at Joe Burrow's level this year. Fighting through an elbow injury last week, he posted a strong game against the Jets, but he wasn't outrageously efficient.
He wasn't Joe Burrow against the Falcons, in other words.
However, Mahomes has been solidly efficient and consistent this year. He hasn't been elite, but he definitely looks capable of taking advantage of a good matchup.
Despite what Burrow did to them last week, the Falcons aren't total pushovers on defense, though. They've kept Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy, and Jordan Love in check.
Volume is a crucial component for the Chiefs here. Fortunately, they've already been operating with a clear lean to the pass.
The Chiefs are coming off an 8% PROE, tied for their second-highest mark of the season, and just added a key piece at WR.
As 3.5-point road favorites, I don't expect the Chiefs to be anywhere near the 72% pass rate they posted against the Seahawks three weeks ago. But like the last two weeks, their PROE should help generate a healthy pass rate even in positive game script.
This could be last call for Rashee Rice as a high-end target "earner." Eventually, Josh Downs is likely to eat into his high target rate. But with Downs still ramping up, Rice will remain a key piece of the game plan this week. He's a high-end WR2.
Xavier Worthy has been practicing in full this week, which is an extremely positive sign after he went down with what appeared to be a serious hamstring injury against the Jets. However, Worthy has been very unimpressive at full strength. He's a WR5.
Josh Downs will likely be in a rotational role. But he could end up having a very high TPRR and is in WR5 consideration.
At tight end, Travis Kelce continues to turn back the clock, posting his fifth game with 2+ YPRR last week.
Downs could eventually eat into his over-the-middle targets. But for now, Kelce is a locked-in TE1.
The Falcons defense is mediocre against the run. The Chiefs are unlikely to go run-heavy relative to game script. But with game script likely to be favorable for Kansas City, we should still see plenty of Kenneth Walker.
This also looks like a strong setup for the Chiefs' play action passing game. That's great news for Rashee Rice, who has a 36% TPRR and 4.61 YPRR on play action, and good news for Kelce, who's at 23% and 2.35.
If chasing play action targets, though, no one is a better bet than Kenneth Walker, who has a 42% TPRR on play action. As the Chiefs' workhorse runner, he's also run more play action routes than Rashee Rice—we can count on Walker to be on the field to sell the fake run. With 2.42 YPRR on play action, Walker has also been incredibly efficient on those dropbacks.
If the Chiefs pivot to a run-first approach against an unimpressive run defense, Walker is set up for a big game. Only Jahmyr Gibbs is seeing a higher percentage of his team's carries than Walker. And Walker has been an elite runner this year.
If the Chiefs use Walker to establish the threat of the run, and then use that threat to attack an off-balance Falcons pass defense—which is the route I expect them to take—Walker will also be essential to that plan. He's set up very well here; it would not be a surprise to see him turn in his fourth 30+ point game of the year. He's an elite RB1.
