Week 13 Walkthrough: De'Von Achane, Sainted
Welcome to the Week 13 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 13th glorious football Sunday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Saints at Dolphins, 1 PM
- Cardinals at Buccaneers, 1 PM
- Rams at Panthers, 1 PM
- 49ers at Browns, 1 PM
- Jaguars at Titans, 1 PM
- Texans at Colts, 1 PM
- Falcons at Jets, 1 PM
- Vikings at Seahawks, 4:05 PM
- Bills at Steelers, 4:25 PM
- Raiders at Chargers, 4:25 PM
Saints at Dolphins, 1 PM
Saints
Implied Team Total: 18
Tyler Shough is coming off a rough outing against the Falcons.
After his Week 12 dud, Shough is down to QB38 in EPA per game and QB35 in success rate.
The Saints now face a Dolphins defense that has been a run funnel this season. Miami's offense hasn't generally been strong enough to force opponents to the air, and their run defense isn't strong enough to stop run-first teams from doing their thing.
The Saints are not a run-first team, though. They're leaning on the pass, largely because they are frequently in negative game script.
This week, the Saints are 5.5-point road underdogs. Maybe the Dolphins' offense isn't usually able to push opponents to the pass, but they look capable of playing from ahead against the Saints.
And while the Dolphins' run defense isn't great, it's not a total pushover, either.
The Dolphins are actually much stronger against the run than the pass.
Meanwhile, the Saints' run game is genuinely atrocious. Alvin Kamara has been a shell of himself this year, yet the fact that he's out this week with a knee injury is still a blow to the Saints' offense.
Kamara injured his knee against the Falcons, limiting him to just 11% of carries.
Devin Neal replaced Kamara's snaps and routes.
But when the Saints were actually looking to run the ball, they leaned on Taysom Hill.
Hill, at one point, was a versatile weapon out of the backfield. Currently, he looks like a poor man's Kareem Hunt.
The Saints will incorporate Hill enough to make him a low-end TE2 option (provided he's not listed as a QB in your league). But as far as building the game plan goes, Taysom Hill ain't it.
Unfortunately, neither is Devin Neal. Neal has only 17 attempts this year, but he's turned in -22 RYOE with a 24% success rate. He'll be used in the receiving game with Kamara out, but with just 0.76 YPRR, Neal isn't flashing much playmaking as a receiver, either. He's unlikely to power the Saints offense, partly because they're not likely to lean on him in the first place. He's an RB3.
The run game issues put the Saints in a position where they don't have much choice—they need to lean on Tyler Shough.
Shough hasn't been efficient this year, but he does look capable of generating spurts of passing production. He's an aggressive deep ball thrower, while also trusting his first read and getting the ball out quickly.
Basically, Shough looks like he wants to rip it downfield to Chris Olave as much as he can. And... we can work with that. Olave had a quiet game against the Falcons, but was clearly the top target in the offense.
Olave now gets a defense that ranks just 29th in coverage grade and is allowing explosive pass plays at the third-highest rate. If Shough can keep things on the rails here, which is a reasonable ask against this defense, Olave can turn in a big day. He's a high-end WR2.
Devaughn Vele has been operating as the No. 2 WR over the last two weeks. But he's yet to show he can actually earn targets. Even in a soft matchup, he's just a dart throw.
Juwan Johnson looks like the true No. 2 option in the offense. He's earning targets and producing reasonably efficiently. Given Shough's potential for volume and decent efficiency in a soft passing matchup, Johnson is a low-end TE1.
Dolphins
Implied Team Total: 23.5
After starting the season 1-6, the Dolphins have won three of their last four games. In those three wins, they are averaging just a 43% pass rate, with a -11% PROE. The Dolphins may be evolving into a run-heavy team.
Tua Tagovailoa has not been efficient this year, ranking just QB27 in EPA per game and QB29 in success rate. I can understand why Mike McDaniel has pivoted away from the passing game as the engine of the offense.
With less of the offense on his shoulders, Tagovailoa has also been more efficient. He posted his most efficient games of the season against the Falcons and Bills, and posted his second-highest success rate against the Commanders.
The Dolphins now get a Saints defense that has been impressively efficient against the run.
At the same time, the Saints are profiling as a major run funnel. Only the Vikings (53%) have a lower opposing pass rate than the Saints.
The Saints haven't seen an above-average pass rate against them since Week 5.
Even with the Dolphins leaning on the run more, De'Von Achane has maintained a very strong carry share. Mike McDaniel has always prioritized getting his best playmakers the ball, and he's had no issues feeding his undersized lead back.
Given Achane's elite receiving role, even if the Dolphins pass more than expected this week, Achane will remain a focal point. He's an elite RB1.
Ollie Gordon saw his playing time increase slightly against the Commanders, but he remains in an ancillary role.
Gordon has a decent success rate, and it's possible he vultures a TD. But he's otherwise off the radar.
When Tagovailoa drops back, he should be able to make plays. The Saints have an anemic pass rush, which will be a massive help for the Dolphins, who rank just 24th in pass block win rate and are allowing quick pressure at a high rate.
The Dolphins are allowing pressure at the second-lowest rate, but that's because Tagovailoa has the fastest time to throw in the league. This matchup should allow Tagovailoa to work through his reads a bit more and enable McDaniel to call slower-developing plays. The Saints' lack of a pass rush raises the ceiling on the Dolphins' passing game.
Jaylen Waddle is dominating the Dolphins' downfield passing game and has potential for a very efficient day here. Even with passing volume likely to be limited, he's a high-end WR2.
Behind Waddle, there's not a ton going on. Malik Washington was efficient against the Commanders, but with limited route participation and unimpressive target volume. He's just a dart throw.
Greg Dulchich hasn't been efficient, but is running enough routes and drawing enough targets to be in the low-end TE2 mix.
Cardinals at Buccaneers, 1 PM
Cardinals
Implied Team Total: 20
The 2025 Jacoby Brissett experience has been pretty fun. He's powering truly elite production from Trey McBride and shockingly strong production from Michael Wilson.
But as we consider how likely this is to continue, it's important to think through why Brissett has been fun for fantasy. And, pretty clearly, the answer is volume.
Brissett ranks just QB26 in EPA per game, well behind Kyler Murray (QB16).
Brissett has also been below the 30th percentile in EPA per play in two of his last three games. And last week, he was going against a soft Jaguars pass defense.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals have been pressing the passing pedal to the floor since their Week 8 bye.
Over the last three weeks, that approach has coincided with very high expected pass rates, resulting in 75%+ pass rates across all three games. The Cardinals are now the only team to hit that mark 4+ times this year.
The nice thing about the Brissett Cardinals is that they don't really need to be in a pass-heavy game environment to get the passing game rolling. The Seahawks were extremely run-heavy against the Cardinals... but Arizona still passed 75% of the time on the other side of the game. And only the Cowboys have hit a 60%+ pass rate against the Cardinals since Week 8.
As we'll get to, I think the Bucs end up leaning on the run this week. But as long as the Bucs are effective with that approach, not grinding out a time-of-possession win, we should see passing volume here. And with the Cardinals as 4.5-point road underdogs, it's safe to assume that they'll be in position to throw again.
Even though I don't view Brissett as truly powering this recent passing resurgence, I will say this—his success rate has been solid, which is likely giving the Cardinals the necessary confidence to lean on the pass the way they are.
Brissett now faces a Bucs defense that has generated some big plays with a blitz-driven pass rush but has a below-average success rate against the pass.
I don't think Brissett will be very impressive in this game. But I do think he can be efficient enough to keep the Cardinals' recent pass-centric approach intact.
The other key factor here is that the Bucs have an elite run defense.
The Bucs' relative weakness against the pass has turned them into a pass funnel.
Only the Eagles and Lions have posted a below-average pass rate against the Bucs this year.
After looking like they might have Trey Benson back for this game, the Cardinals have at least one more week of Bam Knight leading the way on the ground.
Knight has a decent success rate but has shown zero burst, and is not someone I want to bet on to overcome this matchup. He's an RB3.
Once again, the Cardinals look set to lean on the passing game. And they could have reinforcements. After being limited in practice all week, Marvin Harrison is listed as questionable for this game.
Harrison's return will impact Michael Wilson's role in the offense. Wilson has been excellent over the last two weeks, but while seeing elite first-read target rates.
Even if Harrison returns as the No. 2 WR, which is very possible in his first game back from an appendectomy, he's not going to be a total decoy. And without the offense truly built around getting him the ball, Michael Wilson would be a lot less interesting.
I don't think Wilson will go to zero if Harrison returns, to be clear. But even after his recent spike, Wilson's profile looks weaker than Harrison's this year. Wilson probably needs a true lack of WR target competition to keep up his current run of form. And, at the very least, Harrison will be competing with Wilson for targets.
If Harrison is back in the lineup, I'll be treating him as a WR4, given his uncertain playing time. But that would be enough to dock Wilson to a WR3. If Harrison is out, Wilson is in the low-end WR2 mix.
At tight end, I'm less concerned about whether Harrison plays. McBride's first-read targets over the last two weeks have actually been down slightly.
Without Harrison, the Cardinals appear to have prioritized getting Wilson involved to prevent the offense from being built around only one weapon (McBride). Meanwhile, defenses have been as focused as ever on taking away McBride.
Fundamentally, McBride's production isn't really a product of the Cardinals' offense. His production is a product of him being awesome. Whether or not Harrison plays, McBride is an elite TE1.
Buccaneers
Implied Team Total: 24.5
Week 12 was genuinely disastrous for Baker Mayfield; he cratered against the Rams and injured his AC joint.
Even with Mayfield playing very poorly last week, things got worse with Teddy Bridgewater under center; Bridgewater turned in an appallingly low 15% success rate on his 20 dropbacks.
Mayfield didn't practice on Wednesday and was limited on Thursday, but he practiced in full on Friday and is reportedly trending toward playing, which would be a massive boost for the offense. Even coming off a dud, Mayfield ranks QB17 in EPA per game.
Unfortunately, Mayfield ranks just QB27 in success rate. His inconsistency has been an issue this year.
Provided he's healthy enough to take advantage of it, this week's matchup could prove beneficial for Mayfield. The Cardinals aren't terrible against the pass, but they have the third-worst success rate on passing plays, which should boost the Bucs' chances of consistently moving the ball through the air.
The Cardinals have a weak pass rush, which is good news for a Bucs offensive line that hasn't been great this year, but which is finally at full health this week.
The Cardinals also play zone coverage at one of the highest rates in the league, which suits the Bucs very well.
Against man, Emeka Egbuka has just 0.85 YPRR with a 26% TPRR; against zone, he jumps to 2.36 YPRR with a 24% TPRR.
Chris Godwin only has a 0.78 YPRR against zone... but that's still better than his 0.57 YPRR against man this year. And last year, Godwin had 2.66 YPRR against zone with a 26% TPRR. He was worse against man, posting 2.08 YPRR, although with a slightly higher 27% TPRR.
Chris Godwin returned to action last week but was very quiet, with limited route participation. He'll likely see more playing time this week, but is just a WR5.
Tez Johnson remained in a significant role with Godwin back, but struggled to earn targets, as he has in each of the last three weeks. He's also a WR5.
Egbuka has been very quiet over the last two weeks, but this matchup could get him back on track—assuming Mayfield is good to go.
Egbuka's route running and ability to beat man coverage look like weak spots in his game—in his rookie season, anyway—but he'll be seeing a lot of zone this week and in a matchup where Mayfield should have time to throw—he's a high-end WR2.
At tight end, Cade Otton was largely unable to capitalize on the Bucs ' receiver injuries.
With Godwin now working back, Otton is even less exciting than usual. But he's in play as a TE2 as a bet on the Bucs' passing game showing more life this week.
Even if Baker Mayfield is effectively playing through his shoulder injury, passing volume could be pretty low here.
The Bucs have shifted hard to the run in recent weeks.
Against the Bills, the Bucs had a strong day on offense, but the run game was really the engine; they totaled 202 yards on the ground, with Mayfield throwing for just 173 yards.
With Bucky Irving returning from injury, the Bucs should be even more confident in their ability to move the ball on the ground. Irving's rushing efficiency has been weak this year, but he was playing behind an offensive line that was much weaker than the current iteration. He also had to go against the Texans' and Eagles' run defenses.
Irving had a hefty workload in the early season, with an impressive receiving role that he delivered with the best YPRR in the league.
In his first week back, Irving is likely to be in a limited role. Hopefully, some of that role will come at the expense of Rachaad White's snaps rather than Sean Tucker's. White has been seeing the field more for his receiving ability, with Tucker carrying the rushing load over the last two weeks.
Tucker was electric against the Bills, but far less impactful in a difficult matchup with the Rams. He's down to RB19 in RYOE per attempt and just RB43 in success rate. With Irving back, he's just a hail-mary TD bet.
Even with a reduced workload, Irving has some appeal here, given his receiving ability. He also gets a matchup against a mediocre Cardinals run defense, which should reinforce the Bucs' inclination toward leaning on the run. Iriving is a high-end RB3.
Rams at Panthers, 1 PM
Rams
Implied Team Total: 27.5
Matthew Stafford is the betting favorite for MVP, and the numbers generally support his case. He ranks QB8 in EPA per game and QB4 in success rate.
Stafford has been far better when not facing elite pass defenses... as you would expect. If your MVP argument for Stafford over, say, Drake Maye is that Stafford has had a far tougher schedule—you have a point.
This week, though, Stafford gets a matchup where we can expect fireworks. This is a spot where the MVP of the league should put on a show. Drake Maye certainly did... dropping 19 EPA on Carolina on just 21 dropbacks.
By the season-long numbers, the Panthers' defense looks very weak against the pass. And these numbers overstate the difficulty.
Last week, the Panthers lost starting outside CB Jaycee Horn to a concussion. Horn has been solid in coverage this year. They also lost backup outside CB Corey Thornton to an ankle injury. They will now be counting on a major contribution from Akayleb Evans. Evans has played just 20 total defensive snaps this year, with just six coverage snaps.
Evans was a 4th-round pick by the Vikings in 2022, and in his first two seasons, he played 624 coverage snaps. Among 135 qualifying corners, he ranked 109th in yards allowed per coverage snap. He was waived in after Week 1 of 2024 by the Vikings, and the Panthers claimed him on waivers. But Evans played just 29 snaps for Carolina last year, with 26 of them in Week 18. He's now going to be in a starting role against Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
The Rams offense is designed to feed targets to their top two WRs, and there's a clear reason for that. Both Nacua and Adams are elite route runners who are delivering elite production while combining for a ridiculous 55% target share.
The only major concern here is that the Rams may not need to pass the ball at a high rate. Even on the road, the Rams are 10-point favorites; they're facing a Panthers team that has just a 17.5-point implied team total. The Rams are very unlikely to be pushed here.
And even with the Panthers' run defense being better than last year, opponents do not respect their ability to stop the run. The Panthers, once again, are a run funnel.
Passing volume is definitely a concern this week, but we can feel very confident in the Rams' ability to put up points. They have a 27.5-point implied team total and get a defense with the lowest pressure rate in the NFL, which also has a major question mark at outside corner. The lack of volume could hurt, but not enough to push Nacua out of elite WR1 territory.
As the less target-dominant WR, Adams becomes a bit TD-dependent here—but he's still a low-end WR1.
At tight end, with Tyler Higbee on injured reserve, the Rams leaned on Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen in a split role.
Terrance Ferguson remained in a rotational role.
Parkinson has been a slightly stronger target earner than Allen this year and significantly more efficient. However, we're fundamentally looking at a couple of tight ends who are pretty similar, neither one of which will be in a full-time role. As the slightly better bet for volume, Parkinson is a high-end TE3, with Allen as a TE3.
Parkinson and Allen aren't really on the field to catch the ball. They are on the field to signal the defense that the Rams intend to run the ball... helping generate advantageous looks for the passing game. But that passing game runs through Nacua and Adams, not the tight ends.
With a 5% PROE, the Rams have a clear lean to the pass, relative to game script. And we've seen them really lean into the pass in matchups where it suits them.
But although the Rams clearly recognize that the passing game is the strength of their offense, they are not opposed to pounding the rock. The Rams' 60% pass rate ranks just 20th this year, just a fraction above the Jets. The Rams are passing more than expected, but this is an excellent team that is frequently in run-heavy script.
And while the Panthers looked respectable against the run for a minute there, their run defense again looks vulnerable.
Opponents are recognizing this and leaning on the run against Carolina.
Kyren Williams is set up for an efficient day against a weak run defense. Williams has run well this year, particularly from a success rate standpoint. That will serve him well near the goal line, where the Rams should have plenty of opportunities this week.
As with Nacua and Adams, the game script is the main concern for Williams. In his case, we want to avoid a total blowout script, which will likely lead to a bigger role for Blake Corum.
Given the 10-point spread, a blowout is very possible, even expected, making Williams a bit boom/bust here. But as a bet on his ability to get in the end zone in a soft matchup, Williams is a low-end RB1.
Panthers
Implied Team Total: 17.5
Back in Week 2, the Panthers hit an 80% pass rate in a loss to the Cardinals. That loss represented a turning point in their season. For weeks after that, the Panthers were thoroughly committed to establishing the run, even if it meant fighting game script to do so.
However, two weeks ago, the Panthers played roughly in line with a pass-heavy game script against the Falcons. Then last week, they leaned into a pass-heavy script against the 49ers. In a game in which they went down 7-0 halfway through the 1st quarter and trailed the rest of the way in a 20-9 loss, the Panthers once again posted an 80% pass rate.
For the first time all season, they turned in a double-digit PROE, and they were even more aggressive on 1st-and-10.
After Bryce Young led the Panthers to an overtime victory against the Falcons, perhaps Dave Canales felt that putting the offense on his shoulders could lead to a similar comeback effort against the 49ers. However, Young played very poorly against San Francisco, posting his second-lowest EPA per play.
Overall, Young has not played well this year. He ranks just QB28 in EPA per game and QB20 in success rate.
My read on the Panthers' run-heavy pivot is that they were doing what they could to avoid needing to lean on Young. They've shown a willingness to lean on Young if absolutely necessary, but it's hard to believe that after last week, they will have a pass-heavy plan of attack as their primary plan against the Rams.
It would be kind of insane to intentionally subject Young to this Rams pass defense.
The problem is that the Rams are also excellent against the run.
However, the Rams' pass defense is fearsome enough that opponents are shifting to the run, relative to game script.
The Seahawks—who, as they typically do, played very conservatively against the Rams—are not the only opponent driving this effect. We've seen numerous PROEs below -5% against the Rams.
Dave Canales' plan is likely to establish the run early in this game. As 10-point home underdogs, sticking to that plan could prove very difficult. However, for as long as this game is close, we're likely to see the Panthers lean on the run.
Last week, we saw Rico Dowdle's carry share dip to just 46%. At first glance, it looks like his grip on the backfield slipped a bit. It seems even more that way from the raw carry total—he had just six totes against the 49ers.
However, Chuba Hubbard remained clearly behind Dowdle last week.
Dowdle's carry share dipped because the Panthers only handed the ball off nine times, and Bryce Young ran four times. As far as his share of the backfield, Dowdle still looks like the clear lead back.
Dowdle has run well this year, including last week, when he posted 15 RYOE on just six carries. This matchup is a tough test, but Canales will do what he can to avoid having the run game completely phased out again. Dowdle is a high-end RB2.
With the Panthers throwing more over the last two weeks, Tetairoa McMillan posted an 8/130/2 receiving line on 10 targets against the Falcons and 2/35/1 on eight targets against the 49ers.
McMillan was disappointingly inefficient on his targets last week, but he's the locked-in No. 1 target in the offense. If the Panthers are able to get anything going through the air, McMillan will likely be the primary reason. He's a low-end WR2.
Behind McMillan, Jalen Coker looks like a slightly better bet than Xavier Legette. Coker matched Legette in route participation in Week 10 and has been ahead since.
However, given the difficulty of the matchup, both WRs are more or less off the radar.
Ja'Tavion Sanders may be reestablishing himself in a part-time role rather than a rotational one, which isn't nothing.
Unfortunately, Sanders has been ineffective this year. Given the matchup, he's just a TE3.
