Week 14 Walkthrough: Too Many Cooks

Pat Kerrane

05 Dec 2025

Welcome to the Week 14 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 14th glorious football Sunday of 2025.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Bengals at Bills, 1 PM

Bengals

Implied Team Total: 24

In Joe Burrow's return from injury, he looked... pretty much like Joe Burrow. With 10.2 EPA against the Ravens, he was one of the most efficient QBs of the week.

The only fly in the ointment was that Burrow turned in a poor success rate, just like he did in Weeks 1-2.

Burrow looks healthier than expected, but he's still behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and one that allows quick pressure at a high rate—making it hard to be consistent.

The Bills had a major defensive letdown against the Dolphins in Week 10. But even then, Tua Tagovailoa didn't have a strong success rate. Lamar Jackson and Drake Maye are the only QBs to post impressive success rates against the Bills all season.

Meanwhile, the Bills have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

Unsurprisingly, the Bills have been a major run funnel. The Bills currently profile as the NFL's biggest run funnel.

We haven't seen a team post a positive PROE against the Bills since Week 6. And the Patriots, with a 66% pass rate and a 2% PROE, were as pass-heavy as we've seen a team get against Buffalo all season.

With the Bills being a clear run funnel, we're likely to see the Bengals alter their approach. But there's a difference between tweaking things for a matchup and fundamentally shifting your identity. The Bengals will probably be run-heavy by their standards, but we're talking about a team that's had a sub-55% pass rate just once all season. And that team is now a 5.5-point road underdog in a must-win game with a 53.5-point total. The Bengals will probably run more than usual, but they will need Joe Burrow to power them to victory here.

The good news for the Bengals is that Joey Bosa is expected to miss this game after logging back-to-back DNPs with a hamstring injury. This represents a major blow to a pass rush that has been solid but unspectacular this year. Among all players at EDGE and DT with 200+ snaps, Bosa ranks sixth in pass rush grade. After Bosa, the Bills have some solid pressure players. DaQuan Jones ranks 38th, Greg Rousseau ranks 44th, and Deone Walker ranks 50th—but only Bosa is a true difference maker.

And if the Bengals can hold up better in protection than they typically do, Burrow looks capable of overcoming this tough matchup.

Burrow should have Tee Higgins back in the lineup this week, who practiced in full on Thursday and looks on track to clear the concussion protocol.

Higgins was running empty routes for the entirety of the Jake Browning era, but had a few moments with Joe Flacco.

Finally seeing targets from Joe Burrow again, Higgins has as much upside as he's had all season. In some ways, this is a tough matchup. But with the Bills likely to put up points on the other side of this game, even a lower-than-normal pass rate could yield quite a bit of volume for Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase. Higgins is a WR1.

Ja'Marr Chase wasn't dominant against the Ravens, but he was still able to recover from his down game against the Steelers.

With Higgins now drawing additional defensive attention and providing a deep threat for the offense, Chase has the potential to rack up targets like he did with Flacco... but for those targets to be coming from a truly elite QB. Chase is an elite WR1.

At tight end, things are pretty rough. Mike Gesicki and Noah Fant split time against the Ravens, and neither was productive. With Higgins now expected back, both are very thin bets. I prefer Gesicki, but he's just a high-end TE3.

In the backfield, Samaje Perine's return had a major impact on Chase Brown's workload.

As frustrating as this is for fantasy, it's hard to argue with. Brown has not been very efficient this year. His fantasy value has been driven by volume. But in real life, he's "earned" that volume by being the only option the Bengals trust rather than emerging as a reliable playmaker.

Meanwhile, Perine has been shockingly consistent as a runner this year, while breaking tackles and providing some burst. I'm very open to the idea that the 30-year-old running back would look less efficient over a larger sample. However, the Bengals clearly trust him... which is a problem for Brown this week.

With Perine back, even a run-first game plan could leave Brown with an unimpressive rushing workload. His safer path to value is as a receiver, where he's consistently earning targets despite losing routes to Perine.

Fortunately, the Bills look likely to push the Bengals here, creating PPR upside for Brown. He's an RB2.

Bills

Implied Team Total: 29.5

I'm about as frustrated with the Bills' offense as I've been all season. After losing to the Dolphins, then winning on the back of an elite Josh Allen performance, then losing to the Texans, their takeaway was: we need to get back to pounding the rock.

Against the Steelers, they posted just a 38% pass rate, their lowest of the year.

The Bills weren't just conservative overall; they were extremely conservative on 1st-and-10, prioritizing the run game over getting Josh Allen going against a beatable Steelers pass defense.

This is how an offensive coordinator operates when he's trying to hide his QB. And if your game plan is to hide Josh Allen, you should have as much to do with the Bills' game plan as I do.

The Bills are coming off a 26-7 win over the Steelers. You can't say what they're doing isn't working.

But it's readily apparent that what the 8-4 Bills are doing isn't working as well as other things would with Josh Allen at QB.

But the last time I was this irritated with the Bills, I overlooked a key factor. The Bills can, in fact, be pushed. Buffalo posted healthy pass rates in losses to the Patriots (64%), Falcons (65%), Dolphins (69%), and Texans (69%). Crucially, considering the Bills are 5.5-point home favorites this week, Buffalo was also pushed to the air in wins against the Ravens (70%) and Bucs (63%).

Another key factor here is that Josh Allen is still playing at an elite level. Allen ranks QB5 in EPA per game and QB10 in success rate. He hasn't been dominant enough to be a big part of the MVP conversation this year, but if the Bills were to win the AFC East, Allen would be extremely live to win back-to-back trophies. He's in the hunt.

Allen has had a couple of duds this year, but he's been mostly excellent when looking at his EPA per play by week. Allen actually ranks higher in EPA per play (QB4) than in EPA per game (QB5)—another way of highlighting that the Bills are actively limiting his dropback volume.

This all combines to make Allen a bit of a sleeping giant. In a typical game environment, Joe Brady can be expected to intentionally limit Allen's scoring potential. However, in game environments where the Bills need to score points, Allen is fully capable of doing so.

We could see the Bengals push the Bills here. And if they do... Allen's ability to put up points is very unlikely to be limited by the Bengals' defense, which is once again expected to be without Trey Hendrickson.

With Allen potentially turning in a spike week, it'd be nice to know which WRs will be along for the ride. As is, we're a bit in the dark.

Khalil Shakir is coming off just 50% route participation against the Steelers, which requires elite efficiency to overcome... and he turned in just 0.36 YPRR.

In part, Shakir was hurt by Jackson Hawes seeing a bigger role, with the Bills playing 12-personnel at a higher rate as part of an extremely run-heavy game plan. As a slot WR, Shakir's playing time was the most impacted by the reduction in 11-personnel.

Shakir functions as an interesting stacking partner with Allen this week because they are both bets on the same type of game environment—one where the Bills deploy 3WR sets at a high rate.

And when actually on the field this year, Shakir has earned targets and been solidly efficient. After last week's disappearing act, he has a low floor. But Shakir is still a high-end WR3.

Behind Shakir, things are a mess—and I'm assuming that Joshua Palmer will be out this week after logging back-to-back DNPs to open the week. But even with Palmer out of the picture, the Bills look to be running a full-blown rotation at wide receiver. Gabe Davis led the WR group in routes last week, with Brandin Cooks seeing a meaningful role.

Routes look unpredictable for every Bills WR, including Shakir. However, unlike Shakir, the rest of the Bills' WRs haven't demonstrated target earning or per-route efficiency. We're talking about dart throws, at best.

While Gabe Davis led the Bills' WRs in routes last week, Dawson Knox actually led the team.

Dalton Kincaid has been limited in practice this week and is now dealing with a knee injury in addition to his hamstring. He seems to have a real shot of playing, but is probably more likely to miss another week.

Even if Kindcaid goes, we can count on limited route participation.

However, Kincaid has been very effective on his routes, and he stands to benefit as much as Shakir if the Bills lean into the passing game this week. He's a low-end TE1 if he suits up.

Unfortunately, even if Kincaid is out again this week, Knox still looks like a TD-or-bust bet. Given the matchup, though, he's a low-end TE2 if Kincaid is out.

If the Bengals push the Bills, like really push the Bills, we could see the Bills lean into the passing game. More likely though, the Bills will be doing the pushing against a very weak Bengals run defense.

Then, off of the run game, the Bills can play action against one of the worst teams against it.

With the Bills operating like the Packers, you have to think that this is pretty close to what they've drawn up for this game.

And honestly, Allen is more than capable of delivering fantasy value as Bills Jordan Love. I wish that weren't what Buffalo was doing to him... but he can still turn in strong production that way.

And, arguably, given how spread out the Bills' passing game is, Buffalo playing from ahead is the best outcome for fantasy, provided the Bengals can keep things competitive.

In positive game script, both Allen and James Cook shape up as very strong options.

Cook has revived his receiving value a bit, but his rushing workload is still the driving force behind his fantasy value.

With the Bills as 5.5-point home favorites against a very weak run defense, Cook's rushing-driven profile looks pretty damn appealing. The Bills will be looking to get him involved as much as they can get away with—he's an elite RB1.

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Colts at Jaguars, 1 PM

Colts

Implied Team Total: 24.25

Daniel Jones played through a fractured fibula against the Texans, posting strong leg-fracture-adjusted efficiency.

Jones is practicing in full and will be under center again.

Jones will also get a much easier matchup against a Jaguars defense that does not have an impressive pass rush.

The Jaguars have played well in coverage and have generated turnovers. But they have a weak success rate. They look like the type of team that a healthy Jones could turn in high-end efficiency against. And even with limited mobility, he looks capable of a solid game here.

However, Jones' injury appears to have shifted the Colts' offensive approach. Or at least it was enough for Shane Steichen to significantly alter his approach against the Texans.

The Colts actively fought game script in their 20-16 loss to Houston. Granted, they were going against an elite pass defense in their QB's first game playing through injury, so that conservative approach may not translate to this matchup. However, it raises the possibility of a run-heavy game plan again this week.

Part of the appeal of the Jaguars' pass defense is that opposing offenses have been very willing to throw against them. The Jags aren't terrible against the pass from an efficiency lens, but they're allowing a lot of production because of high opposing pass rates.

This is where Jones' health is still a major question mark. He'll definitely be on the field. But will the Colts be confident enough to attack a pass funnel matchup head-on?

Ultimately, it's hard to see how the Colts don't dial things back from where they might have been with a healthy Jones.

At the same time, the Colts are on the road in a game with a 47-point total. This game environment is expected to be competitive. It's also expected to be higher-scoring than last week's. It will be hard for the Colts to be as conservative as they were against the Texans.

The Colts also have an incentive to pick their spots when calling run plays. The Jaguars have been very strong against the run this year.

Still, even if the Colts shift back toward the pass here, that's not necessarily a bad thing for Taylor, who has benefitted from defenses needing to respect the pass and the run. And although the Texans held Taylor in check, he operated as the Colts' entire backfield and saw a season-high 22% target share.

Taylor is an elite RB1.

In the passing game, Tyler Warren saved his fantasy day against the Texans with a TD, but turned in a weak 13% TPRR with just 0.96 YPRR.

Warren has generally been at his best when the Colts' offensive system is fully clicking. He's excellent on play action and has the best chance of getting back on track if the Colts can reestablish Taylor while also pivoting back to a pass-first approach that uses the threat of the run as much as the run game itself. Basically, for Warren, we want the Colts to be a wagon again. But with Jones having cracked a spoke, it's unclear if they can get there. Still, Warren is a TE1.

Michael Pittman and Alece Pierce have had very similar profiles this year, with Pittman having an edge as a target earner, but Pierce being significantly more efficient.

If the Colts return to a pass-first approach, Pittman can rack up targets. But if the Colts are taking shots off a run-centric game plan, Pierce's deep-threat profile honestly looks more interesting. Both profile as WR3s here.

Josh Downs is coming off his most efficient game of the season against the Texans. Unfortunately, he turned in just a 2/44/0 receiving line on five targets. When you only run a route on 64% of dropbacks, them's the breaks.

Downs is a WR5.

Jaguars

Implied Team Total: 22.75

Before the Jaguars' Week 8 bye, they were profiling as a pass-first team. But they have pretty clearly pivoted to the run in the five games since.

At the same time, the Jaguars haven't fully committed to the run. Against the Titans, they were still willing to pass aggressively on 1st-and-10, and they've only had a negative PROE on 1st down once since their bye.

The Jaguars do look to have moved to a run-first approach, but they are operating a lot more like the Colts than the Seahawks.

That's good news for Trevor Lawrence, who will be going against a Colts defense that doesn't rush the passer well, especially with DeForest Buckner out for at least another week. The Colts will also be without Sauce Gardner for this game.

Still, the Colts have Charvarius Ward back in the lineup after he missed Weeks 6-10. Ward keeps the secondary from looking like a liability, as it has been at earlier points this year.

Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence looks very much like a liability. Lawrence is coming off one of his strongest games of the season, but has been in the 25th percentile or worse in EPA per play on four different occasions this year. He's been below the 40th percentile six times in 12 games.

Lawrence's tendency to flop has him at just QB28 in EPA per game and QB22 in success rate. He's a minor positive regression candidate, but he also profiles as a difficult QB to trust.

If betting on Lawrence, one might assume that Brian Thomas would be the clear stacking partner. Or at least, one might assume that if one had not watched Brian Thomas play football in 2025.

Thomas was back on the field last week, but didn't draw targets. The Titans didn't even bother double-covering him, which is pretty concerning considering his deep route tree.

It's also worrying that Thomas wasn't able to produce when Parker Washington left early last week.

Instead, Lawrence leaned on Jakobi Meyers, as he's done for much of Meyers' stint with the Jaguars.

Meyers' profile is pretty mid and is also stronger than Thomas'. With Washington (hip) yet to practice in full this week, both Thomas and Meyers are WR3s. As sad as it is, I slightly prefer Meyers.

Brenton Strange was up to 81% route participation against the Titans and, honestly, might be the best fantasy option in Jacksonville.

Stange's profile is very strong by tight end standards, and he's quickly ramped back up after his injury. Lawrence's profile adds a boom/bust element to this passing game... but that's par for the course at tight end. Strange is a TE1.

Earlier in the season, the Colts looked like a pass funnel, as opponents attacked an injured secondary. However, with Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward both healthy in Weeks 11 and to begin Week 12, the Chiefs and Texans both had leans to the run.

Gardner is now out, and there's less of a need to avoid the Colts' pass defense. But those two matchups still highlight that you don't need to avoid the Colts' run defense right now either.

With the Jaguars now profiling as a run-first team, Travis Etienne is set up for a decent workload here. However, Etienne's profile is inherently volatile. He has a poor success rate and a weak receiving role. His value has been tied to big plays and TDs. When he doesn't deliver there, the floor is very flow—as we saw when he turned 12 carries into just 28 scoreless yards (-18 RYOE) and added just one reception for 13 scoreless yards against the Titans.

And while Etienne remains the Jaguars' lead back, he's not necessarily in line for a majority of carries here. He's a good bet to have more carries than Bhayshul Tuten, but could still get there with less than 50% of team attempts.

Tuten, meanwhile, has been very consistent this year and has been breaking tackles at a high rate. However, even when it looked like he was breaking out (before injury) against the Chargers, he was only able to force a backfield split rather than a true backfield takeover.

With the Jaguars likely to incorporate both backs, Etienne is a high-end RB3, with Tuten as an RB4, a bet on a TD.

Week 14 Walkthrough: Too Many Cooks

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Bengals at Bills, 1 PM