Week 16 Walkthrough: Chris Olave Hits the Jets

Pat Kerrane

19 Dec 2025

Welcome to the Week 16 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 16th glorious football Sunday of 2025.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Jets at Saints, 1 PM

Jets

Implied Team Total: 17.5

The Jets have announced that Brady Cook will be starting against the Saints. Hopefully, ownership is on board with that decision—as in, forfeit for Fernando. Because if you're trying to win games and one of Tyrod Taylor or Justin Fields is healthy enough to be active—which is likely given that both are logging limited practices—one of those two should be starting this game. Brady Cook does not look like an NFL QB.

The Jets coaches know this. If you think you have a QB who can play, you don't call an extremely conservative game in a 48-20 loss.

The Jets now get a Saints defense that is worse against the pass than the run.

However, the Saints' run defense is far from a shutdown unit.

And because the Saints aren't a very good team, opponents have been able to run aggressively against them if they want to.

The Saints haven't seen a 60%+ pass rate against them since Week 5 (October 5th).

Last week, negative game script helped the Jets hit a 60% pass rate, but they'll likely be even lower here.

Even with the Jets likely to lean on the run here, it's tough to get excited about Breece Hall. He's coming off weak usage against the Jaguars.

Hall's usage was likely curtailed by the Jets' blowout loss to the Jaguars. But we're talking about a team that is a 5.5-point road underdog with Brady Cook at QB. They could easily be hopeless early in this game.

Still, Hall has some appeal as a breakaway runner with strong receiving ability. He's a boom/bust low-end RB2.

In the passing game, Cook has a fairly similar test to last week. The Saints aren't great against the pass. If you're a QB like Josh Allen, Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford, or even Sam Darnold, you can cook this defense. But if you're a backup or a struggling starter, this is not necessarily a good spot.

With Brady Cook at QB, we absolutely need full route participation to even consider a WR. We didn't get that with John Metchie last week.

Adonai Mitchell remains the top WR on the Jets with Garrett Wilson out and saved his day with a TD last week. Mitchell's aDOT also dropped, which, as I covered last week, is actually a very strong sign with Cook at QB because he's a conservative passer. We do not want to be dependent on Brady Cook throwing deep.

Mitchell is a WR4.

With Mason Taylor out last week, Jeremy Ruckert was the top tight end. But with just 57% route participation, he's not really fantasy-relevant even with Taylor out again.

Saints

Implied Team Total: 23

Tyler Shough now has six starts under his belt, to Spencer Rattler's eight. So far, Shough ranks QB36 in EPA per game and QB23 in success rate, with Rattler at QB32 and QB16.

However, Shough has been genuinely impressive over his last two games, combining consistency and efficiency.

Shough's biggest issue looks to be his pressure-to-sack rate. His 28% mark is the worst in the entire NFL, with Geno Smith (27%) and Cam Ward (25%) the second and third worst. If he doesn't improve there, we'll eventually see him crater in matchups where he's consistently pressured.

Fortunately, this does not look like that type of matchup. The Jets have a very weak pass rush as part of one of the weakest pass defenses in football.

And, as you know from playing any form of fantasy football last week, the Jets' defense just got absolutely roasted by Trevor Lawrence. This defense is getting worse, not better.

The Saints may have also gained some confidence in Shough after his strong game against the Bucs. They passed in line with expectations last week, and Shough rewarded their faith with his best game in the NFL.

The Jets have been a run funnel, and I don't expect the Saints to be truly aggressive in the pass game. But Lawrence just evicerated the Jets with a 67% pass rate. We don't need a 70%+ pass rate here. Something above average (62%+) would be than more sufficient for strong passing production.

Shough's best game coincided with Chris Olave's most efficient game since Week 10. That's no coincidence. As I noted last week, Olave's role is more boom/bust since Rashid Shaheed was traded to the Seahawks. Olave's aDOT is up significantly since the early part of the season. He's no longer a high-volume possession receiver; he's a high-volume deep threat. When things aren't clicking, that will lead to some rough outings. However, if Shough has time to throw, Olave's ceiling is pretty enticing.

Olave is profiling as a high-end route runner and an elite target earner. He's also facing a Jets defense that is not double-covering and is playing man at the fourth-highest rate.

Against man coverage, Olave has a 30% TPRR, compared to just 25% against zone coverage. Olave has actually been more efficient against zone (1.86 YPRR) than man (1.56 YPRR). But given his more volatile role in the offense, anything that helps boost targets is a good thing. Olave is a low-end WR1.

With Devaughn Vele out with a shoulder injury, Juwan Johnson should operate as the clear No. 2 in the offense. However, Johnson's route participation has been down recently, which is a concern.

Johnson's per-route role is strong by tight end standards, though. And this is an excellent matchup for the passing game. He's a TE1.

In the backfield, the Saints will be without both Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal. That leaves Audric Estime and Evan Hull to carry the load. Estime has handled just six attempts all season, with Hull at 10. Estime has just a 33% success rate and -4 RYOE... and has been significantly better than Hull (20%/-13). The biggest takeaway here is that even against a mediocre Jets run defense, the Saints are unlikely to lean on the run game. Estime is just an RB4.

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Bills at Browns, 1 PM

Bills

Implied Team Total: 26

By season-long efficiency metrics, the Browns have a very strong run defense.

However, there's a difference between allowing rushing efficiency and rushing production. If teams are aggressive enough in attacking a good run defense, they will surrender production. In part because the Browns' defense is attached to a very weak Browns offense, teams are running aggressively on the Browns.

Over the last two weeks, though, the Browns' rushing defense has fallen off. The Titans and Bears both ran for 130+ yards and two TDs against them.

Over the last two weeks, the Browns rank just 21st in EPA allowed per rush and 15th in rushing success rate allowed. The Browns' run defense hasn't been terrible recently, but it's beginning to show some serious cracks.

Cleveland's recent inefficiency against the run has created problems for them because both the Bears and the Titans were extremely aggressive on the ground.

The Browns now get a Bills team whose identity is built around the run.

Even in a comeback win over the Patriots, the Bills were very conservative both overall and on 1st-and-10. And keep in mind that these numbers represent called dropbacks, not pass attempts. There's no penalty for Josh Allen's scrambling ability here. If anything, this playcalling limits those opportunities.

With a -9% PROE on 1st down, the Bills remain the second-most conservative team behind only the Panthers (-12%). As I noted last week, though, when pushed, we do not want to underestimate Josh Allen's upside.

The issue, however, is what happens when the Bills aren't pushed. In those games, they tend to become so conservative that it hinders passing-game production, as we saw most recently against the Steelers.

The Bills' passing game has a challenging setup this week. The running game, though, looks in line for both volume and efficiency.

And coming off a 67% snap share against the Patriots, James Cook will be operating as the clear-cut lead back in a very strong setup.

Cook has been one of the best runners in football this year, and there are just not many holes to poke in this setup. In fact, if the Browns' run defense really is as weak as it's looked over the last two weeks, Cook could be downright dominant this week. Cook is an elite RB1.

In the passing game, the Browns still look like a legitimate challenge—even over the last two weeks, they profile as a top-10 pass defense.

Of course, the Browns will also be dealing with a significant challenge, going against the QB2 in EPA per game and the QB7 in success rate, Josh Allen.

Generally, the move has been to get the ball out quickly against the Browns this year. However, Drake Maye turned in the most efficient game against them this season, despite taking six sacks—he made up for it by hitting plays downfield.

Josh Allen could operate with a similar playstyle here; he has been very good under pressure this year and is more than capable of making the Browns pay when they can't get to him.

Allen should also be able to take shots off of play action, which teams have been attacking the Browns with at a very high rate, and which the Bills use at one of the highest rates in the league.

On play action passes, Dalton Kincaid leads the Bils with a 31% TPRR and 4.14 YPRR.

Unfortunately, Kincaid remains stuck in a part-time role. He posted just 46% route participation against the Patriots.

Fortunately, Kincaid's per-route profile is truly elite. His lack of playing time will limit his opportunities, and a lack of overall passing volume could further limit him. The setup gets even shakier when considering the Browns' potential to disrupt the passing game with their elite pass rush. But... Kincaid does have some splash play appeal here as a play-action playmaker.

Unfortunately, Kincaid hasn't practiced yet this week. It's possible the Bills are just resting him; it's also possible he reaggravated his knee injury.

Kincaid is a high-end TE2 if he suits up.

If Kincaid is out, Dawson Knox will be in a full-time role. Funnily enough, Knox didn't do much while filling in for an injured Kincaid in Weeks 11-13, but he's been very efficient in the two weeks since on limited routes.

If Kincaid is out, Knox is a TE2.

At WR... man, what a mess.

The good news is that Khalil Shakir posted strong(ish) route participation against the Patriots. But with the Bills very likely to pivot to a very run-heavy approach here, he's at risk of sub-65% route participation for the third time in four weeks.

And while Shakir has a solid YPRR this year, he's not enough of a priority in the game plan to be an especially reliable option in this setup. He's a WR5.

After Shakir, things remain a jumble. Gabe Davis was a healthy scratch last week with Joshua Palmer returning to the lineup. However, it's possible we see Davis again here, given his run-blocking ability in a matchup that should favor the ground game. It's hard to say it really matters.

Browns

Implied Team Total: 15.5

After a promising game against the Titans, Shedeur Sanders came crashing back down to earth against the Bears.

Even with Kenny Pickett flopping against the Eagles, Sanders was the worst QB of Week 15.

In Sanders' defense, his offensive line is truly awful right now. But he also makes his protection look worse than it is. His 3.39-second time to throw is egregiously long. It's easily the longest in the league, ahead of Caleb Williams (3.27). Sanders is also allowing pressure at the highest rate of any QB this year, contributing to his NFL-high 51% pressure rate. So, although Sanders' pressure to sack rate is actually a minor positive, he's still a sack-prone QB—because Sanders allows pressure at a ridiculous rate with an... let's say unconventional playstyle.

Sanders now gets a Bills defense that has been solid against the pass but doesn't have a great pass rush. However, Joey Bosa is back in the lineup for the Bills—he ranks EDGE6 in pass rush win rate, and is a good bet to create issues for the Browns' extremely weak offensive line.

The Browns have shown signs all season that they would prefer to limit pass volume and win with defense. They have a -4% PROE on 1st-and-10, which ranks 23rd. They also have a -3% PROE overall.

However, that formula has been a bit tenuous all season, given the Browns' struggles to put up points. And with their run defense letting them down recently, the Browns simply have not been able to play in anything other than deeply negative game script. They've just allowed 31 points in back-to-back weeks.

Ideally, the Browns will be able to attack on the ground here, against a Bills run defense that has been poor all season, and just allowed a huge day from TreVeyon Henderson.

This has made the Bills a giant run funnel.

It's reasonable to expect the Browns to start this game run-heavy. It's much harder to see them actually maintaining a run-heavy approach throughout the game.

That makes Dylan Sampson's availability more important than usual. Last week, with Sampson out and with Jerome Ford now on injured reserve, Quinshon Judkins logged a season-high 55% route participation.

Judkins hasn't been much of a receiver this year, but hey, volume is volume.

Sampson has yet to practice this week and looks likely to miss this game, putting Judkins in line for another workhorse week in a great rushing matchup. Even with the Browns as 10.5-point underdogs here, that makes him an RB2.

Last week, the Browns built their game plan around feeding Harold Fannin. He posted a season-high 28% first-read target rate and tied his season high in TPRR at 35%.

Fannin's day ultimately goes down as a missed opportunity, but there's more opportunity to come. Fannin now leads the Browns with a 23% target share this year, significantly besting Jerry Jeudy (20%). And with a 24% TPPR to Jeudy's 17%, he's been far more involved when on the field... which is pretty relevant for a player who just posted 95% route participation. Fannin is a high-end TE1.

Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy's targets have dried up recently.

This is a pretty significant issue given that Jeudy's fantasy appeal is primarily as a positive regression candidate. But if the bet is that Jeudy will eventually perform more efficiently on his volume... we don't want to see that volume shrink. But here we are. Jeudy is a dart throw.

Week 16 Walkthrough: Chris Olave Hits the Jets

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Jets at Saints, 1 PM