Week 17 Walkthrough: Doubting Thomas

Pat Kerrane

26 Dec 2025

Welcome to the Week 17 Walkthrough—the final Walkthrough of the 2025 season.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the 17th glorious football Sunday of 2025.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Jaguars at Colts, 1 PM

Jaguars

Implied Team Total: 27.25

Over the last four weeks, Trevor Lawrence has literally been the most efficient QB in the league. Over that span, he ranks QB1 with 17.3 EPA per game and QB2 in success rate.

Lawrence absolutely cooked the Jets, which will boost your efficiency. But he's also been consistently efficient over the last four weeks.

One of those matchups was against the Colts, whom he now faces again.

The Colts have been very effective against the pass when healthy, but they are not healthy at the moment, with Charvarius Ward on injured reserve and Sauce Gardner likely out again this week.

With two backup outside corners, the Colts have been getting roasted by opposing passing games.

Zooming out to the season overall, Lawrence still ranks just QB14 in EPA per game and QB14 in success rate. He's needed an elite four-game stretch just to profile as a solid starting QB this year, which is a reminder that Lawrence's floor is lower than ideal.

But Lawrence gets a Colts defense that is struggling to pressure the passer, in addition to their coverage issues.

That's helpful becuase the Jaguars offensive line has some injuries—C Robert Hainsey and RG Patrick Mekari look likely to be out. However, reserves Jonah Monheim and Wyatt Milum have been solid.

And the Colts pass rush may be down DeForest Buckner, who has been DNP/DNP with a neck injury.

Even with injuries on the OL, this is a matchup where Lawrence should be able to keep his efficiency rolling.

This also looks like a matchup where we can expect passing volume. Over the last two weeks, the Jaguars have pivoted to a much more aggressive offensive approach.

This has led to their two highest pass rates since their Week 8 bye.

With the Jaguars profiling as a pass funnel and this game having a healthy 48.5-point total, we could be looking at another higher volume game for the Jaguars.

In Week 14, the Jaguars posted just a 57% pass rate against the Colts, but that was with an injured Daniel Jones and then Riley Leonard at QB on the other side. Last week, the Colts posted a 67% pass rate with solid efficiency with Philip Rivers against the 49ers, so this Colts rematch has upside for more play volume.

Brian Thomas is coming off a quiet game against the Broncos, with just a 5% TPRR and a 0.49 YPRR. But while this matchup is a boost for the Jaguars' passing offense at large, it's a massive boost for Thomas relative to last week. He moves from a facing Pat Surtain—who ranks CB3 in yards allowed per coverage snap among 115 qualifiers—to Mekhi Blackmon (CB73), Kenny Moore (CB94), and Jonathan Edwards (CB102). Two weeks ago, Thomas was plenty efficient in this spot.

If betting on targets, Jakobi Meyers is still a better bet than Thomas. But Thomas is seeing looks much further downfield, creating spike week upside.

Meyers is set up well here. He's a target earner in an excellent matchup for his QB, in a game that should feature healthy dropback volume. He's a low-end WR2.

But Thomas has the more exciting setup. With a 14.7 aDOT, Thomas is more of a boom/bust option than Meyers, but he's a player I'm looking to get into lineups, despite his disappointing season so far—this week, there's no doubting Thomas' ceiling.

Parker Washington is coming off a huge game against the Broncos, posting a 6/145/1 receiving line on a team-leading nine targets.

Washington will now get Kenny Moore in the slot, which hasn't actually been that tough of a draw this year. Washington still looks like the third option in the passing game this week, but is turning in a breakout third-year season and sets up as a WR4 here.

Brenton Stange also got in the end zone last week, posting 5/39/1 on seven targets. Unfortunately, Strange's efficiency was unimpressive for the third straight game.

I remain reasonably bullish on Strange, though. He's drawing targets at a solid rate and is reliably out there running routes. In a plus matchup for the passing game, Strange is a low-end TE1.

The Colts have been decent against the run this year, making a run-heavy game plan from the Jaguars less likely.

However, the Jaguars still profile as a run-first team. It wouldn't be shocking to see them lean on the run here, even if the matchup looks to me to set up better for the passing game.

With Bhayshul Tuten out, Travis Etienne hasn't been dominating the backfield. LeQuint Allen remains involved.

But even with Allen stealing routes, he's not seeing many targets. Meanwhile, Etienne's target share has been very strong over the last two weeks and has largely been strong since the Jaguars' Week 8 bye.

Etienne's rushing efficiency isn't particularly impressive. His 37% success rate is actually downright alarming. And so, he's more of a bet on the Jaguars offense than anything else. But this is very much a spot where I want to bet on the Jaguars' offense. Etienne is a low-end RB1.

Colts

Implied Team Total: 21.25

You really do have to hand it to Philip Rivers. At 44 years old, the dude just posted solid efficiency with a legitimately impressive success rate.

Sure, the Colts lost 48-27 to the 49ers. But the bar is pretty low here, given the outrageous context. And even after getting an extremely difficult matchup in his first game out of retirement, Rivers is profiling like a solid backup QB right now.

Rivers is following the classic old man QB template. He's getting the ball out extremely quickly. Rivers leads the NFL with a 2.41-second time to throw. Tua Tagovailoa ranks second with a comparatively slow 2.55-second TTT.

Rivers is also getting the ball out on his first read at a very high rate, only slightly trailing Daniel Jones (67%). Like Jones, Rivers is running quick-hitting plays as they're drawn up. He's just taking the quick-hitting part to another level.

This week's matchup is both scary and fun—which is how I imagine playing NFL QB at 44 probably feels to Rivers.

The Jaguars have been a massive pass funnel this year. There's potential for quite a bit of pass volume on the Colts' side, especially if they play from behind as 6-point underdogs.

The Colts weren't super aggressive in Week 13 with a -2% PROE, but were dealing with Jones' injury, and they still posted a 66% pass rate which is well above average. Two weeks ago, the Jets were conservative against the Jags, but the Jets are straight-up capitulating right now. Last week, the Broncos played things very aggressively, posting the ninth 70%+ pass rate against Jacksonville this year.

So, that's the fun part of this matchup—volume. With the Jaguars profiling as a strong run defense and potentially in trailing script, we could see quite a bit of pass volume from Rivers.

However, the scary part about this matchup is that the Jaguars have been much stronger against the pass in recent weeks than they were to start the year. Last week, I thought this was mostly schedule-related and, frankly, I still think it is. But shutting down Bo Nix isn't nothing. And, at 44, Rivers now counts as a soft opposing QB matchup—it's not like the schedule suddenly gets hard for the Jags defense here.

The Jaguars have a mediocre success rate against the pass, but they've been able to generate big plays while preventing explosives. This is the type of defense that can allow production to Rivers if he has dropback volume. But if the Colts are unexpectedly run-heavy here, the floor for the passing game is pretty low.

Josh Downs is the lowest floor piece in the passing game. His route participation could dry up again after a strong two-week stretch.

However, if this game goes as expected, we should see plenty of Downs once again. Downs has been an excellent fit for the Rivers offense, given his ability to win consistently and quickly, which is ideal for a QB looking to get rid of the ball as soon as possible. Downs is a WR3.

Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman are dominating outside routes, with Pierce coming off a very strong 4/86/2 receiving line on four targets last week. That game was on limited target volume, though.

Pierce's 17% TPRR is significantly worse than Pittman's 22%. But with a 19.4 aDOT to Pittman's 8.4, Pierce is a better bet to deliver strong efficiency on his targets, which is also backed up by his 2.09 YPRR to Pittman's 1.59. Pierce benefits from the Jaguars' mediocre pass rush and is a WR4 as a big-play bet. Pittman is a WR3 as a bet on target volume, which is the primary play in the Colts' passing game this week.

Tyler Warren was rolling earlier in the season, but has been extremely quiet over the last four weeks.

Fortunately, Warren's target rates with Rivers have been very strong. We don't have the production to match yet, but that could change this week. As a shallow target, Warren is a good fit for what the Colts are looking to do on offense right now. He's also a very talented player. Warren is a high-end TE1.

Given that the Jaguars are a pass funnel, and given that the Colts are 6-point underdogs, we're unlikely to see a conservative, run-heavy game plan this week. That's not even what was driving Jonathan Taylor's production early in the year. He was benefiting from the Colts' efficient passing game, with Steichen actually prioritizing the pass on 1st-and-10 early in the year.

Steichen's approach has changed since Rivers has taken over, but it's possible in this game that the Colts get back to trying to move the ball consistently through the air and then use Taylor as a big play generator when the Jaguars don't show him enough respect. And given Taylor's explosive ability, it's not like we need massive rushing volume for a spike week performance.

Certainly, Taylor will dominate the available rushing work. He should also have a solid role in the passing game, with Rivers keeping him involved so far. Taylor is a high-end RB1.

(Back to Quick Links)

Cardinals at Bengals, 1 PM

Cardinals

Implied Team Total: 23.25

For weeks, we haven't been getting efficiency from Jacoby Brissett. He just has not been very good this year... on his average dropback.

Last week, we actually felt that in the box score for one of the first times, with the Cardinals pivoting to a run-heavy game plan against the Falcons.

A critical piece of context is that last week the Cardinals didn't trail until halfway through the third quarter and didn't trail by more than three until the 4th. Still, they had a 72% expected pass rate, so they were genuinely fighting game script to pass only 60% of the time. It's possible this signals a shift in approach.

This week, the Cardinals are 7.5-point road underdogs to the Bengals. They should see a high expected pass rate once again, which is a good start.

However, if the Cardinals want to run the ball, they can justify a run-heavy approach. The Bengals are vulnerable on the ground.

The Bengals have also had three of their best games against the pass in the last four weeks, twice limiting Lamar Jackson.

But even with the Bengals playing better over the last few weeks, they still look like one of the worst pass defenses in football.

And unlike the Falcons, who can create chaos with their pass rush and blitzes, the Bengals aren't really threatening. In fact, with the worst success rate in the NFL against the pass, this is precisely the type of defense that you'd handpick to attack with a high-volume completion-driven passing attack. Ultimately, I expect the Cardinals to get back to the formula we've come to expect from them with Jacoby Brissett under center.

With Marvin Harrison back last week, he led Michael Wilson in first-read target rate and TPRR, but just barely. Harrison also posted limited route participation.

This week, we'll likely see Harrison in a bigger role. And he looks like the better bet for targets, despite Wilson's impressive production in his absence. Harrison is a high-end WR3, with Wilson as a WR4.

Trey McBride is coming off a very disappointing Week 16, but his target rate was actually very strong.

With the potential for better efficiency and dropback volume this week, McBride is set up for a rebound performance. There's no reason to doubt what this season has taught us—McBride is an elite TE1.

With Bam Knight out last week, Michael Carter operated as the lead back, but ceded meaningful work to Emari Demercado.

Of the two, Demercado has actually been the more interesting runner.

However, if the Cardinals trust Michael Carter more, then so do I. In other words, neither of these RBs looks like a real difference maker, so give me the better bet for volume. In a strong matchup, Carter is a high-end RB3.

Bengals

Implied Team Total: 30.25

This post is for paying subscribers only

Already have an account? Log in