Week 2 Walkthrough: CeeDee Drops a Hit
Welcome to the Week 2 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the second glorious football Sunday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
Giants at Cowboys, 1 PM
Jaguars at Bengals, 1 PM
Bears at Lions, 1 PM
Rams at Titans, 1 PM
Patriots at Dolphins, 1 PM
49ers at Saints, 1 PM
Bills at Jets, 1 PM
Seahawks at Steelers, 1 PM
Browns at Ravens, 1 PM
Broncos at Colts, 4:05 PM
Panthers at Cardinals, 4:05 PM
Eagles at Chiefs, 4:25 PM
Giants at Cowboys, 1 PM
Giants
Implied Team Total: 20
Russell Wilson was concerningly bad in Week 1. A handful of other veteran QBs struggled in EPA last week, but unlike most of the others, Wilson was also very inconsistent.
When put in the context of Wilson's play down the stretch with the Steelers, last week's stinker doesn't really stand out. That's obviously not a good thing. Pittsburgh made the playoffs and still let Wilson walk in the offseason. There's a reason for that.
That reason has a name: success rate.
Even early last year, Wilson was turning in weak success rates, hitting the 45th+ percentile just once all season, albeit in dramatic fashion.
Success rate is a helpful metric in a few different ways. As Kevin Cole notes in his Advanced Game Reviews, it's a stickier metric than EPA, because it isn't swayed by outlier plays. On 3rd-and-4, a 4-yard gain and a 40-yard gain are both treated as a successful play. And it's a lot easier to find teams that can pick up 3rd-and-medium at an above-average rate than it is to find teams consistently hitting ultra-explosive plays.
But I also like success rate because I'm convinced that coaches like it. Actually, that's not true; I'm convinced they adore it. These guys spend all week drawing up a game plan with specific plays they know will work if executed correctly. Sure, it's cool to see a QB create out-of-structure success. But watching a QB succeed while executing the play that you designed... that's pure dopamine, baby.
Brian Daboll is about to go into withdrawal.
If Wilson plays like last week, it honestly might be his last start. There's no point keeping Jaxson Dart on the sideline for Wilson to play like this.
The good news is that the Cowboys defense looks vulnerable against the pass. Despite limiting A.J. Brown to just one reception for eight yards, they did not perform well overall. Wilson could rebound here—enough to start in Week 3, at least.
If Wilson plays better, this game could actually be pretty fun. Brian Daboll was still willing to pass last week, even with Wilson stinking up the joint.
Malik Nabers has to deal with suboptimal QB play for the second straight season, but at least this week's matchup isn't imposing.
More importantly, the dude is a superstar, capable of overcoming horrendous circumstances. If the offense has more life this week, he could go off. He's a locked-in WR1.
Wan'Dale Robinson is the clear second option in New York, unless you play in a points per route league—the only place Darius Slayton would have had any Week 1 value. Robinson isn't any more than a priority dart throw, though.
At tight end, Theo Johnson has consolidated routes... but that's it. He saw just one first-read target on 32 routes last week. With several late round TEs proving to be meaningful contributors in Week 1, you likely have a better option.
The Cowboys did a decent job bottling up Saquon Barkley last week, but were gouged by Jalen Hurts on the ground. Will Shipley also had an efficient day. As a result, the Cowboys don't grade out very well as a run defense.
The Giants don't look fully capable of taking advantage of a bad run defense, though. At least, not yet.
Currently, Tyrone Tracy is the Giants' starting RB. But Tracy turned 10 carries into 24 yards last week, with -13 RYOE and just a 30% success rate. Cam Skattebo was actually worse, failing to deliver a successful run on either of his carries, with -8 RYOE.
But Skattebo turned in 4.00 YPRR, turning just three routes into two receptions for 12 yards. And Skattebo has something else that the analytics can't measure: heart.
Skattebo with his first touch just destroys 3 people. pic.twitter.com/1hjeAcOtXU
— Jordan Simone (@JordanSimone38) September 7, 2025
I'm half kidding. But the other half believes that Brian Daboll is gonna find a way to get this dude the ball more as soon as possible.
And it's not like Tracy did much as a receiver against Washington, which is where you'd expect him to have the bigger edge on the rookie.
Skattebo is just a hold for now. He had just a 12% snap share to Tracy's 74%. He has a long way to go before he's fantasy relevant. But I think there's potential for Skattebo to be even more of a thorn in Tracy's side this week, making Tracy a fragile play. Still, he's a low-end RB2.
Cowboys
Implied Team Total: 24.5
Dak Prescott turned in respectable EPA numbers against the Eagles, but was frustratingly inconsistent. Although with a more sure-handed night from CeeDee Lamb, the numbers would have looked a little better.
And Prescott was playing a fantasy-friendly style, taking shots downfield, while targeting his first read at a high rate. Unfortunately, despite attempting a throw to his first read on 60% of his dropbacks, he completed a first-read throw on just 31% of dropbacks. Prescott had 14 non-first-read throws, and he completed 71% of those. But on first-read attempts, he had just a 52% completion rate. Prescott also had a 10.2 average depth of throw, but just a 5.3 average depth of completion. The stats tell the story of a QB who was attempting to execute a downfield passing attack to his top weapons, but wasn't efficiently connecting with them.
This passing offense should be more in sync against a Giants defense that is coming off a very weak performance against the Commanders. To be fair, the Commanders are a strong offense. At the same time, the Giants struggled both in coverage and to generate pressure consistently. When they got pressure, they did tend to get there quickly, at least; they rank 14th in quick pressure rate.
The Giants struggled in coverage last year, so their poor numbers last week likely mean they will have a vulnerable secondary again in 2025. With Abdul Carter having a solid debut, the pass rush should pick up steam as the season progresses. But if they don't consistently generate pressure again this week, the combination of a clean pocket for Dak Prescott and weak Giants coverage is a recipe for passing production.
The Cowboys look willing to attack a good passing matchup. Against the Eagles, the Cowboys posted a 3% pass rate over expected, with a healthy 65% pass rate.
CeeDee Lamb's drops were frustrating last week. But this week... they're cover. Lamb's role was incredibly strong against the Eagles. And consider that this wasn't a given. Yes, obviously, Lamb was going to be the No. 1 over George Pickens. Pickens is good; he's not Lamb. But we couldn't be sure that Lamb would dominate the offense with Pickens on the team, upgrading his target competition from Jalen Tolbert and Brandin Cooks. But that's exactly what Lamb did.
On one hand, it's unlikely Lamb will command this level of offensive involvement again this week. Drake London led the NFL with a 25% first-read target rate last year. Even if Lamb goes nuclear in 2025, his first-read target rate and TPPR will both fall significantly. But last week was still a statement from both the Cowboys and Lamb. On the Cowboys' end, the statement was clear—Lamb is a clear-cut No. 1; Pickens is a secondary deep threat. On Lamb's end, he proved he can earn targets above and beyond his first-read looks. And these were real downfield targets. Lamb had just one screen target. He had a dozen traditional downfield targets, with a 15.6 aDOT on those looks.
This is a get-right spot for the Cowboys' passing offense, generally. But Lamb's upside here is particularly enticing. He's an elite WR1.
Pickens' Week 1 debut was far less exciting, but with 94% route participation, it's clear he's a locked-in starter, and his role will likely grow this week. There's not much in Week 1 to get too excited about, but Pickens is a talented young WR whose QB should be more efficient in a good matchup. He's a high-end WR3.
Jake Ferguson, like last year, had very str ong route participation in Week 1. His 0.79 YPRR was a bummer, but that is the result of an unsustainably low 3.8 YPT. He's an obvious bounce-back candidate this week and is a low-end TE1.
On the ground, the Cowboys get a great matchup as well.
Even after last week, I'm very skeptical that Dallas can take full advantage of a good rushing matchup. However, Javonte Williams showed enough to convince me that he can help consistently pick up yards in (small) chunks. And as a chain mover, he can help keep the offense on track. And like last week, he could be an asset at the goal line. As gross as it is, with Miles Sanders losing a key fumble and Jaydon Blue a healthy Week 1 scratch, Williams is an RB2 here.
Jaguars at Bengals, 1 PM
Jaguars
Implied Team Total: 22.5
The Jaguars turned in a thoroughly disappointing performance on Sunday, especially considering the game environment, which many considered to be the juiciest of Week 1. And it was especially disappointing if you—hypothetically—authored a full-slate NFL piece that featured Brian Thomas as your Week 1 cover boy. But here we are...
And there were some silver linings.
Trevor Lawrence wasn't terrible in his 2025 debut, just decidedly mediocre. His efficiency was in line with other normally-solid (or better) QBs who had sub-par weeks.
Lawrence was far worse at times in 2024 (while also being significantly better at other points).
From the perspective of Lawrence's efficiency, this game looks more like a missed opportunity than a huge cause for concern going forward.
Jacksonville's pass protection was another bright spot on Sunday. Lawrence saw just an 18% pressure rate and, notably, was not sacked. If the Jaguars can keep Lawrence clean, he's going to have better days.
Brian Thomas' day wasn't as bad as it looked, either. And not just because he saved himself from a disastrous fantasy outing with an end-around TD run. Thomas had 100% route participation and a strong 18% first-read target rate. He was also targeted downfield, and over the deep middle of the field. It was a good role.
Unfortunately, Thomas turned in only 1.6 YPT, yielding just 0.33 YPRR.
As a receiver, Thomas fully flopped in Week 1. That's always going to be frustrating. But if a WR is going to flop, I'd prefer it to look like this flop did—a WR whose team wants him involved, and who was earning targets, but who simply wasn't clicking with his QB.
But while Week 1 shouldn't be panic-inducing for Jags fans, it's still not great. The fact that Lawrence was well protected is definitely a good sign, but the fact that he was barely able to add value from a clean pocket is pretty concerning.
And the Jaguars might not even have a good offensive line... it's more likely that the Panthers don't have a pass rush. After all, Carolina ranked dead last in pressure rate in 2024.
The downside scenario here is that the Jaguars can't count on Lawrence to light it up from a clean pocket and are going to struggle to keep him clean. Given that Brandon Thorn ranked their offensive line second-worst in the preseason, it's a worringly realistic scenario.
The good news this week is that the Bengals don't have a dominant pass rush. They were capable against the Browns, but ranked just 13th in pressure rate and 24th in quick pressure rate. They could give Lawrence more trouble than the Panthers did, but he's unlikely to be constantly under duress.
Ultimately, this matchup is less about the Bengals' defense and more about the Bengals' offense, which will be looking to get back on track after a brutal opening game—and licking their chops to face this Jaguars defense. There should be plenty of scoring in this game (which has the highest total of the week at 49.5), and the Jaguars will likely need to pass to have a chance to win.
And although the Bengals aren't as soft a matchup as the Panthers were, they don't look all that imposing. This could be a get-right spot for both offenses.
Last week, Brian Thomas was the Jaguars' focal point on splash zone throws—10+ yards and over the middle—an area where the Bengals struggled against the Browns. More importantly, he's immensely talented and still looks like the clear-cut No. 1 in the offense, per the underlying metrics. This looks like a spot to go back to the young star WR. Even after last week, he's a locked-in WR1.
Travis Hunter is coming off 82% route participation, which is very encouraging, especially considering his two-way role. Hunter ultimately played just six snaps on defense in the opener.
This may seem like an unusual argument—but Travis Hunter is an unusual player. Here goes: It's possible the Jaguars' Week 1 offensive struggles are actually good for Hunter's Week 2 outlook.
Long term, sure, let's get this offense cooking. But as someone tasked with predicting if Hunter will play on offense or defense in a given week, it's hard to believe the Jags don't throw all their firepower at the offensive side in Week 2. Their Week 1 usage indicates they view Hunter as more valuable on the offensive side, and they can't afford to get cute after struggling in a very soft opening matchup.
There are reports that Hunter will play more on defense this week. What is less clear is that this will come at the expense of his offensive snaps. His route participation may drop a bit, but I'm assuming it will still be in the 75% range.
When on the field last week, Hunter's role in the offense wasn't ideal. He was targeted heavily but did a big chunk of his damage on screens, and played mostly from the slot, with just a 7.3 aDOT.
Still, his 15% first-read target rate was not a bad showing... especially for a mold-breaking two-way rookie in his first NFL game.
Ultimately, Week 1 told us that Hunter is likely to need to rack up targets and deliver YAC to produce as a big-time fantasy player. But nothing about Week 1 indicates he can't do exactly that if he gets enough routes. He's an upside WR3.
The Jaguars' offense should primarily flow through Thomas and Hunter, but it doesn't look entirely concentrated to the top options. Dyami Brown's 14% TPRR was backed up by a solid role in the game plan. Given the matchup, he's in the dart-throw mix.
Brenton Strange also looks like a genuine part of the offense, with a solid 13% first-read target rate and a 13% TPRR. His 70% route participation isn't ideal, but it's still in the usable range at tight end.
Strange ran very hot in Week 1 with a 14.8 YPT. Given his 9.0 aDOT, we'd expect his YPT to be just 8.3. YPT is not sticky; his 2.57 YPRR will drop—likely more than a full yard per route. But Strange is in a good game environment and is involved in this offense in a tangible way. He's a TE2.
This is an exciting setup for the Jaguars passing offense. But it's not without risk. Last week, the passing game struggled... and the offense leaned on the run. The Jaguars had just a 53% pass rate, which ranked 26th on the week.
The question for this week is—how much of that was related to game script?
Despite struggling on offense, the Jaguars had the luxury of playing from ahead against the Panthers. They probably won't get that luxury in Cincinnati.
The Bengals held up well against the run last week. So, this doesn't seem like a run funnel type of setup—if anything, it looks like the opposite.
For the Jaguars passing offense to rebound here, we don't want to see a ton of rushing volume. But we wouldn't mind some rushing efficiency. It's good news, then, that Travis Etienne appears to have been revived in the Liam Coen offense.
With Tank Bigsby dealt to the Eagles, Etienne's role in the offense is secure. He'll likely be spelled as a runner by Bhayshul Tuten, who was efficient on three carries against the Panthers. Etienne will also lose receiving snaps to LeQuint Allen, who appears to be in a specialized passing-down role. But Etienne should still see a healthy workload and profiles as an RB2.
