Week 3 Walkthrough: Bijan Robinson, Rocket Ship
Welcome to the Week 3 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the third glorious football Sunday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Falcons at Panthers, 1 PM
- Packers at Browns, 1 PM
- Colts at Titans, 1 PM
- Bengals at Vikings, 1 PM
- Steelers at Patriots, 1 PM
- Rams at Eagles, 1 PM
- Jets at Buccaneers, 1 PMW
- Raiders at Commanders, 1 PM
- Texans at Jaguars, 1 PM
- Broncos at Chargers, 4:05 PM
- Saints at Seahawks, 4:05 PM
- Cowboys at Bears, 4:25 PM
- Cardinals at 49ers, 4:25 PM
Falcons at Panthers, 1 PM
Falcons
Implied Team Total: 24.5
In his 2025 debut, Michael Penix looked like a potential breakout player. Things got more difficult against the Vikings' defense, as they usually do.
Last week, it was very clear that the Falcons were not looking to win the game through Penix's arm. He was there to keep the offense on the rails. Bijan Robinson was the engine.
Robinson's rushing profile looks almost as good as we were hoping in the summer. He's consistently delivering positive gains, breaking tackles, and ripping off long runs.
The only issue is that Robinson has lost significant rushing work to Tyler Allgeier in both games this year.
Allgeier logged 10 carries for 24 yards in the opener, then went 16 for 76 and a TD against the Vikings.
The good news is that Robinson's receiving role looks elite, which is a significant shift from last year, when Robinson had a strong role, but a truly elite one.
If this receiving usage keeps up, Robinson can continue ceding ~40% of carries to Allgeier—it's really not going to be a problem.
This week, Robinson gets a matchup against a Panthers run defense that looks vulnerable, particularly on the defensive line. This is important for Robinson, who is an elite talent, but is not playing behind an elite offensive line.
In this matchup, Robinson's potential for elite rushing efficiency is very enticing. If he's able to combine that with the same type of receiving usage he's had so far, Robinson is set to blast off.
Michael Penix should help Robinson keep things rolling. He's going against a Panthers defense that looks weak across the board. They don't cover very well and aren't generating a pass rush.
The Panthers will likely need to push the Falcons to generate passing volume here. And with the Falcons as 5.5-point road favorites, that's no guarantee.
But Drake London should build on last week's 2.04 YPRR. He's the clear-cut No. 1 option here and a low-end WR1.
Darnell Mooney returned against the Vikings to a pretty uninspiring per-route role. But it wasn't a great day for the passing offense, and Mooney logged 100% route participation, which is an encouraging sign for his health. He's a sneaky WR4 play as the passing moves from a difficult matchup to a soft one.
Kyle Pitts is also coming off encouraging route participation, logging a 96% rate against the Vikings. His first-read target rate remains uninspiring, but he seems to have a strong connection with Penix. Given the matchup, he's in the low-end TE1 mix.
Panthers
Implied Team Total: 19
Bryce Young flopped in his 2025 debut, but turned in much stronger efficiency against the Cardinals. He still wasn't great, but he was able to facilitate receiving production.
From a real-life perspective, Young's production was a bit fraudulent. The Panthers were in a trailing script for most of the game. This was ultimately a one-score loss, so Young wasn't operating in garbage time, exactly; but it's not like he put the offense on his back here, either.
And for the season, Young still looks unimpressive, turning in efficiency in line with Spencer Rattler.
From a fantasy perspective, though, let's celebrate the fact that we have an offense willing to pass the ball 80% of the time if the game calls for it. Passing volume can cure a lot of ills.
This week, the Panthers are taking on a Falcons pass defense that has been unexpectedly impressive to start the year. New defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich and Raheem Morris have incorporated multiple new pass rushing pieces to improve a defense that ranked just 31st in pressure rate last year. They're currently third in pressure rate and fifth in quick pressure rate. This is a tough test for the Panthers' offensive line, which has performed below expectations so far this year.
Fortunately, OT Ikem Ekwonu returned to the lineup last week, replacing Yosh Nijman, who was a liability as a Week 1 fill-in.
The weak spot on the line now looks to be center Austin Corbett, who ranks 11th-worst in pass block grade among interior linemen. Falcons DT Ruke Orhorhoro ranks DT9 in pass rush win rate, and so the interior rush could pose a problem here.
But, again, the Panthers' passing game is more of a volume play than an efficiency play. And Tetairoa McMillan is doing a good job of consolidating volume.
McMillan's 18% first-read target rate is quite strong for a rookie this early into his career. Usually, we're happy to see rookies making the most of limited early opportunities. McMillan is already installed as his team's clear-cut No. 1.
Bryce Young is also attempting first reads at a high rate and has already racked up 90 dropbacks in just two games. So for just two weeks, we have an unusually large sample of first-read throws in Carolina—boosting my confidence that McMillan really is installed as a true No. 1.
McMillan has been performing above the baseline we'd expect when looking purely at his first-read targets. This is a very good thing. Star WRs don't just deliver on the plays designed with them in mind; they earn targets in all situations.
McMillan's per-target efficiency also looks promising, a sign of talent. He's not running unsustainably hot, either.
As Ollie Connelly recently broke down, the Falcons' secondary should have been exposed last week with coverage breakdowns and a Vikings game plan that targeted rookie nickel corner Billy Bowman in coverage. But the Falcons' game plan appeared to rely on JJ McCarthy not punishing them for defensive lapses... and he didn't.
The Falcons look like a legitimately better defense than expected. But their strength is also likely to be overstated by the current numbers. With potential for efficiency and with volume very likely to be on his side, McMillan is a WR2.
Hunter Renfrow has also hit worth-mentioning status after posting a 7/48/2 receiving line on nine targets against the Cardinals. His underlying numbers aren't impressive, but he's a viable dart throw, especially if Bowman is as exploitable in the slot as the film junkies believe.
At tight end, Ja'Tavion Sanders' route participation has been consistent, but his role was much stronger last week than against the Jaguars.
His per-route role now looks pretty interesting, especially if he can improve on a disappointingly weak 6.8 YPT. He's a TE2.
The Panthers' passing volume has been a massive boost for Young and McMillan (and Renfrow), but it's been an issue for Chuba Hubbard, who has also been far less efficient on the ground than last year.
Fortunately, Hubbard is also up from 0.51 YPRR last year to 1.15 YPRR. But this was primarily driven by a Week 1 spike. His 13% target share is in line with last year's 12% mark.
Hubbard's receiving efficiency is nice to have, but it's not his path to value going forward. Instead, we need him to recapture his 2024 rushing form, when he was one of the most efficient runners in football.
This week, he gets a Falcons defense that looks solid against the run. Hubbard is an RB2, as a bet that his high-end 2024 form still provides meaningful signal.
Packers at Browns, 1 PM
Packers
Implied Team Total: 24.75
Jordan Love is having a very strong start to the season, profiling like one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL.
However, Love has benefitted from facing the Lions and Commanders' defense, both of whom have exploitable secondaries. Moreover, both teams blitz at a high rate. Last year, the Packers were blitzed at the fifth-highest rate as defenses attempted to get pressure against one of the best pass-protecting lines in the league. But Love was excellent against the blitz, with the Packers finishing as the ninth most efficient team against it.
We're seeing a similar dynamic this year. The Packers have been blitzed at the second-highest rate, but the Packers are the ninth most efficient team against it.
The trick to playing the Packers is to generate pressure with the front four. And this week, the Packers face a Browns team that looks very capable of doing that.
They are consistently generating pressure with their Myles Garrett-led pass rush. Third-year EDGE Isaiah McGuire is also having a strong start to the year, ranking third in pass rush win rate.
The Packers have been excellent on offense this year, and so we shouldn't expect them to crumble here. But this is likely to be a less explosive outing than we've seen from them so far.
Tucker Kraft already looked like the most likely to fall back to earth, then he suffered a (reportedly minor) knee injury in Thursday's practice. He's someone to monitor heading up to kickoff.
And although his role was strong against the Commanders, it wasn't off-the-charts good. His per-target efficiency, on the other hand, was spectacular, with 74 YAC yielding a 20.7 YPT.
Kraft is at 14 YPT for the season. For his 9.8 aDOT, we'd expect that to be 8.5. So, he's a strong candidate for negative regression. Don't expect his 3.04 YPRR to hold, in other words. But his role is still excellent for a tight end. So even with regression headed his way, we can treat him as a high-end TE1—assuming he's a full-go.
At WR, the roles are far less enticing. Heading into the season, Matthew Golden was expected to take control of the WR corps quickly. But that hasn't happened.
Golden ran more routes in Week 2 but saw weak usage when on the field and failed to record a catch.
Not to pour dirt on Golden's grave here, but it's worth noting that Jordan Love has been attempting first-read throws at a very high rate and completing those throws at a high rate. This is both an offense where we have a strong idea of what they're looking to accomplish and an offensive staff that is probably quite pleased with how things have gone so far.
Golden was the Packers' Round 1 pick. He's a safe bet to earn more of a role at some point. But based on last week, it could be a while.
With Jayden Reed breaking his collarbone, the Packers needed a WR to step up—but they didn't turn to the rookie. Instead, they turned to 2024's slappie king, Dontayvion Wicks.
The fantasy community so badly wanted Donyayvion Wicks to be a thing last year. Maybe we were just a year too early?
Wicks only saw 65% route participation last week, which adds some caution here. But when on the field, he was a clear priority.
And if you're going to play a part-time Packers WR, it might as well be the one who is drawing targets.
If you want to play a full-time Packers WR... you don't really have an option. Romeo Doubs has been at 74% and 76% route participation to start the year.
But he's as close as we have right now, and has a reliable role in the offense. He's a WR4.
If the Packers struggle to pass protect here, we could see them lean on the run. That won't really be a change in approach. The Packers have peaked at just a 56% pass rate in their first two games.
But if the Packers need to run here more out of necessity, it could be more of a grind-it-out approach than the efficient attack we've seen to this point.
The Browns just held Derrick Henry to 2.1 yards per carry, and rate as one of the strongest run defenses in the league to this point.
But, especially at RB, volume is king. And Josh Jacobs has absolutely dominated rushing work for the Packers in both games.
Jacobs' receiving work looks like a red flag through two games. He is running routes at a decent rate; the Packers just haven't been looking for him. And his 2% target share is significantly impacting his fantasy workload.
Jacobs' rushing efficiency has also been weak, and he now gets a tough matchup. So not a lot to get excited about here.
However, we're still dealing with a small 2025 sample. So let's zoom out. Jacobs is the locked-in lead back on a potent offense that is favored by 8 points this week and is likely to lean on the run. He's an RB1.
