Week 4 Walkthrough: Hampton's New York Holiday
Welcome to the Week 4 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the fourth glorious football Sunday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
This week's EPA charts feature red and green lines that roughly represent the boundaries of sustainable play over a larger sample. Basically, they represent where the edges of the chart will be later in the season, even if we have some pretty extreme performances (on both the high and low end).
Here's where I set the lines.
- Green line at 15 EPA per game.
- Just above Patrick Mahomes' 2018 mark.
- Red line at -10 EPA
- Just below Josh Rosen's 2018 mark.
- Green line at a 54% success rate.
- In line with Aaron Rodgers' 2020 mark.
- Red line at a 34% success rate.
- Just below Deshaun Watson's 2024 mark.
The QBs outside the green lines are playing great—congrats to them. But even if they were Hall of Fame-level talents, their play would still regress.
Players outside the red lines are turning in disastrous efficiency, but, provided they aren't benched, things should get at least a little better.
Quick Links
- Chargers at Giants, 1 PM
- Panthers at Patriots, 1 PM
- Saints at Bills, 1 PM
- Browns at Lions, 1 PM
- Eagles at Buccaneers, 1 PM
- Titans at Texans, 1 PM
- Commanders at Falcons, 1 PM
- Colts at Rams, 4:05 PM
- Jaguars at 49ers, 4:05 PM
- Ravens at Chiefs, 4:25 PM
- Bears at Raiders, 4:25 PM
Chargers at Giants, 1 PM
Chargers
Implied Team Total: 25
Against a high-end Broncos defense, Justin Herbert turned in his least efficient game of the season. He also led the team to a 23-20 win, showcasing impressive playmaking ability.
More concerningly, the Chargers switched up their approach on 1st-and-10, prioritizing the run.
And although the Chargers still had a lean toward the pass overall, they didn't fully embrace a script that could have generated a very high pass rush.
With the Broncos' pass rush turning in an excellent performance, I don't blame the Chargers for trying to stay somewhat balanced against them. There's a good chance this was matchup-related, that the Chargers are still built around the pass.
After all, even after last week's more balanced game plan, the Chargers still lead the league with a 9% PROE. They also rank seventh-fastest in situation-neurtral seconds per play—which is a complicated way of saying they are playing fast.
Even after last week's unimpressive efficiency, Herbert looks impressive through the lens of EPA per game. He just needs an easier matchup to get back on track.
The Giants' defensive line is talented enough to create some issues. At DT, Dexter Lawrence ranks 11th in pass rush grade. At EDGE, Brian Burns ranks ninth and Abdul Carter 36th.
The Chargers are also expected to be without RG Mekhi Becton, who suffered a concussion against the Broncos. Reserve Jamaree Salyer has been a liability in pass protection this year. Joe Alt continues to be a stud at LT, at least.
And the good news here is that when the Chargers can give Herbert time to throw, he should be able to carve up a vulnerable Giants secondary.
The Chargers' passing offense has been cooking this year... but their choice of ingredients has been a surprise.
On one hand, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston are both running hot from a fantasy points over expected perspective. On the other... they both easily lead Ladd McConkey in expected fantasy points. They also lead McConkey in target share, TPRR, and first-read target rate.
My read is that this offense will be spread out among the top three WRs, but that the WRs will consolidate downfield volume between them. McConkey has trailed so far, but I'm still betting on the talent there. Call me crazy, but if I had all three of these guys, I'd still be playing McConkey. But, man, it's so much closer than I thought it would be.
McConkey and Allen look like WR2s here, with Johnston as a high-end WR3.
Last week, Omarion Hampton emerged as a receiving weapon out of the backfield, posting a 15% target share. His usage was likely somewhat matchup-related, but still very encouraging.
With Najee Harris out for the year, Hampton is set to handle a big rushing workload here, with upside for some of last week's receiving usage.
Hampton gets a Giants defense that has been extremely poor this year. And keep in mind, they've faced the Commanders, Cowboys, and Chiefs—three teams who aren't exactly rushing juggernauts this year.
Facing a rookie QB in his first start as 6.5-point road favorites, this a layup opportunity for the Chargers to see if they can get Hampton going in the run game.
After last week, Hampton's success rate looks solid. He just needs to show more explosiveness. This is a perfect level-up matchup. Hampton is a low-end RB1.
One last note—Oronde Gadsden saw his first routes of 2025 against the Broncos, but was limited to just 28% route participation. With Jim Harbaugh identifying him as someone who is going to play more, Gadsden looks like a fun deep league stash. But even if Will Dissly is out again, not someone I'm looking to trust in lineups yet.
Giants
Implied Team Total: 18.5
It turns out the Russell Wilson experience was a little too spicy for Brian Daboll.
Can't say he wasn't warned.
About to try the Dangerwich pic.twitter.com/OCPZGv22I3
— Ballsack Sports (@BallsackSports) September 28, 2022
In fairness to Russell Wilson (and I'm always very fair to Wilson), he wasn't that bad this year. From an EPA per game and success rate standpoint, he's in the same ballpark as Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith, and Trevor Lawrence. He's been better than C.J. Stroud and Michael Penix. This isn't must-bench territory.
However, the reality of the situation is that the Giants are 0-3, and Brian Daboll needs to save his job; Russell Wilson isn't going to do that for him. So, you might as well throw the rookie to the wolves. It probably won't work, but I believe the term is "Hail Mary."
It's important to consider this context because it helps establish the bar for Jaxson Dart in his first start. Hopefully, Dart will inject some life into an offense that has struggled in two of three weeks this year. But... more likely, at least in the short term, things will get worse.
Dart kicks off his career against a good Chargers defense that has played very well in coverage.
It is nice to see that the Chargers' pass rush hasn't been very strong, at least. And although the Giants' offensive line hasn't been great, their starting five is healthy heading into this matchup. Dart will likely make some costly mistakes, but if he can ball, he should be able to flash potential in this matchup.
To quickly review Jaxson Dart's prospect profile, he profiles as having scrambling ability, a good deep ball, and an aggressive playstyle. But he also benefitted from playing in a high-end college system that kept him clean. I expect him to be inconsistent early on, but to also flash some fantasy-friendly traits.
And, really, for now, we just need Dart to be able to find Malik Nabers.
Nabers is the clear focal point of the Giants' offense. Like usual, he'll deal with a high rate of double coverage here. But in a game where the Giants will likely be trailing, there should be at least moderate passing volume. Nabers is a WR1.
Wan'Dale Robinson would probably be better off if the Giants stuck with Wilson. Sure, if Dart is awesome, then the switch will benefit everyone. But Robinson was seeing downfield targets from Wilson, and he might not have the same connection with Dart. The Giants would also be more likely to throw caution to the wind and chuck it around the yard with Wilson under center than in Dart's first start.
Frankly, even with Wilson, Robinson's 2025 production was really just driven by one game.
Nabers is too talented to take out of fantasy lineups... Robinson isn't. He's a WR4.
At tight end, Theo Johnson is running a lot of routes. Maybe that will translate to a connection with the rookie—almost certainly not, but he's worth keeping an eye on this week as a potential post-Sunday waiver add.
With Tyrone Tracy dislocating his shoulder against the Chiefs, Cam Skattebo is set to take over as the Giants' lead running back. And honestly, that's where things were headed anyway. Tracy has not been good this year.
Skattebo has been legitimately impressive, both as a runner and receiver.
Skattebo looks like a safe bet to handle the majority of receiving duties, given his bullish usage last week.
Tyrone Tracy and Skattebo combined for just a 63% carry share last week. So Skattbo isn't a great bet to dominate rushing work.
Don't get me wrong, I expect Skattebo to be the lead runner. But, like last week, Devin Singletary will mix in.
Ultimately, Skattebo could end up in a similar role to Jaylen Warren's, where he has clear control of the backfield and is being incorporated as a receiving weapon, but also isn't in a true one-RB backfield.
But even if Skattebo doesn't get every carry, the Giants will do their best to feed him. We saw the Giants shift to a true run-heavy approach against the Chiefs.
New York actively fought against a pass-heavy game script.
The Giants' goal here isn't necessarily to win. That would be great, but it's more of a nice-to-have than a must. The must is that Dart cannot get exposed. Pounding the rock, even if significantly behind, helps make sure that doesn't happen.
Against a middling Chargers run defense, Skattebo is an RB2.
Panthers at Patriots, 1 PM
Panthers
Implied Team Total: 18.75
The Panthers were finally able to play from ahead in Week 3, and tellingly, they dictated the run. This is likely how the Panthers would prefer to play.
However, over the course of the larger 2025 sample, the Panthers have been a very different offense, one that frequently passes in negative game script.
The Panthers enter New England as 5.5-point underdogs, setting them up to look a lot more like they did in Weeks 1-2 than they did against the Falcons.
Even if the Panthers roll out a run-heavy attack to start the game, it's unlikely to be very efficient. The Patriots have defended the run well this year. Milton Williams has led the charge here, ranking DT7 in run stop win rate.
Williams has also been a significant factor in the passing game, ranking DT1 in pass rush win rate. Williams plays alongside K'Lavon Chaisson, who ranks 17th among EDGE defenders in pass rush win rate, and Harold Landry (18th). The Patriots actually have a pass rush this year.
This is not good news for a Panthers offensive line that has underperformed in 2025 and has lost starting RG Robert Hunt for the season and starting C Austin Corbett for 6-8 weeks. Reserve C Cade Mays has played well so far in relief, but RG Chandler Zavala has been a major liability.
Bryce Young is likely to face some pressure here and is unlikely to have the luxury of leaning on the run game, unlike last week.
The good news is that the Patriots' secondary is a real problem. Even if Christian Gonzalez returns this week, they will be vulnerable on the backend.
Even in a dominant 30-0 win over the Falcons, Bryce Young wasn't efficient. He was actually worse than in the previous week's loss to the Cardinals.
For the season, Young looks very mediocre.
Last week, I called Young a volume play. And, while I was wrong about how the Panthers would fare in Week 3... I was right about him being volume dependent. He has yet to show impressive efficiency this year. If playing a Panthers receiver, you're hoping the Patriots push the Panthers back to the air. We need dropback volume here.
Fortunately, Young is throwing to his first read at a high rate, making this passing offense fairly projectable. As in, we can project consistent target shares for Tetairoa McMillan.
For a rookie, McMillan's per-route profile is elite. He's successfully operating as a true No. 1 less than a month into his NFL career.
From a fantasy perspective, McMillan is running a bit cold, having yet to score a TD this year. But his underlying role is very impressive, and he's sustainably converting yardage.
The Panthers will likely struggle to consistently move the ball, making their outlook somewhat fragile.
And so, unless Young can provide better QB play, McMillan's best path to value is racking up targets in negative game script. However, the Panthers don't really want to be that team. We saw this last week, and that idea is also backed up by Carolina having the slowest situation-neutral seconds per play in the NFL.
Still, most likely, the Panthers will need to throw here even if they don't want to, making McMillan a WR2.
Hunter Renfrow's per-route (and even per-game) role has been surprisingly valuable. However, Renfrow's routes cratered last week, in line with David Moore seeing 96% route participation. If you hypothetically started Renfrow in the Ship Chasing Guillotine league and still somehow avoided the chop, you need to find another option this week.
Theoretically, Tommy Tremble is in play at tight end with Ja'Tavion Sanders unlikely to play in this game. But I still think this is a McMillan or nothing receiving game.
In the backfield, Chuba Hubbard is the clear starter, but he isn't dominating touches.
Rico Dowdle is mixing in for enough work to hurt Hubbard's fantasy value.
The good news for Hubbard is that even after Dowdle vultured a touchdown last week, Dowdle's underlying stats look pretty awful across the board.
Hubbard, meanwhile, doesn't look good, but he still appears significantly stronger than his competition. This isn't a great matchup on the ground, where Hubbard has traditionally done most of his damage. But he's a decent bet for carries and isn't a total zero in the receiving game. Hubbard is an RB2.
Patriots
Implied Team Total: 24.25
Drake Maye had a breakout game in Week 2 against the Dolphins. He was less impressive last week, particularly on his interception in the end zone. That ball was tipped, but it was still a bad throw. Maye also had a strip-sack fumble as part of five total sacks.
But even with some big negatives, Maye's efficiency wasn't all that bad. And his success rate was actually very strong.
Through three weeks, Maye is profiling like a strong starter, the type of player who is plenty capable of delivering in a good matchup at home.
Pressure is the biggest issue for Maye right now. He has a poor pressure-to-sack rate; he's not avoiding sacks well under pressure. He also has a very low deep pass rate. In part, that's because his WRs aren't good. But it's easier to throw deep when you have time to throw.
Maye should be pretty clean this week, facing a Panthers defense that ranks dead last in pressure rate and fourth-worst in quick pressure rate.
Given that one of their three matchups was against Miami's anemic pass rush, the Patriots' protection stats are likely inflated. They could also be without starting C Jared Wilson, who missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with an ankle injury.
Still, given the matchup, Maye should have more time to throw than usual, at least.
With the Patriots as 5.5-point home favorites this week, their offensive philosophy is important to consider. And so, it's nice to see that they don't look likely to fully rely on the run. They had just a 57% pass rate in their only win this year, but that was roughly in line with the game script. They were pass-heavy in their other two games, and the Patriots' 5% PROE ranks third-highest this year.
Of course, for fantasy, outside of playing Maye—which I'm pretty interested in—it's hard to find passing game value here, especially at WR. But let's table WR for now and talk about Hunter Henry.
Against the Steelers, Henry posted a massive fantasy day, with his highest route participation and target rate of the season.
Henry's profile now looks quite strong, and it's fair to say that he's emerged as the Patriots' only reliable downfield playmaker. In a strong matchup, he's a TE1.
After flashing in Week 1 as a key contributor and getting in the end zone again in Week 2, Kayshon Boutte posted just a 2/28/0 receiving line on three targets against the Steelers. He now has just four targets over his last two games.
Boutte doesn't look like a trustworthy fantasy start... but neither does anyone else. Stefon Diggs' route participation remains a problem.
And, for the season, Diggs' per-route profile is pretty uninspiring. The issue here isn't actually that Diggs isn't drawing targets; it's that he isn't drawing targets downfield. He has just a 6.9 aDOT, and is more or less doing a Pop Douglas impression.
Behind Diggs and Boutte, it's still an ugly committee, with Mack Hollins and Demario Douglas each running about half the routes.
Kyle Williams is also starting to work in a bit more; not enough to matter, but his involvement won't help the other WRs.
Henry is really the only receiver of interest here right now... unless you count TreVeyon Henderson.
Henderson played more in Week 3 and has seen at least a 9% target share in all three games this year.
Henderson's playing time bump was directly related to Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson's fumbles. After Stevenson's second fumble—a back-breaking fumble into the end zone—he was essentially benched.
Antonio Gibson also put the ball on the ground. So, TreVeyon Henderson looks like the only back Mike Vrabel can trust to protect the ball.
But there's a reason the Patriots were playing Stevenson and Gibson over Henderson in the run game. Henderson has been brutally inefficient as a runner. That doesn't win trust, either.
Stevenson entered the season with a reputation for fumbling. He was supposed to be benched for fumbling last year... but Jerod Mayo forgot to actually bench him. With the issue remerging last week in truly egregious fashion, Stevenson could be in the shadow realm this week. Beat reporter Mike Reiss noted he was repping at the No. 3 RB on Wednesday.
In this tackling/ball-carrier drill at Wednesday’s practice, rookie TreVeyon Henderson is the first RB to rep, followed by Antonio Gibson, then Rhamondre Stevenson. pic.twitter.com/kGYtIg1rK6
— Mike Reiss (@MikeReiss) September 24, 2025
But Henderson needs to show a lot more as a runner than he has thus far, or the Patriots could end up reverting to Stevenson fairly quickly.
Fumbles aside, Stevenson has been impressive this year, raising the bar on what the Patriots will be looking for from their other backs.
Ultimately, I think we can count on Henderson to get more rushing opportunities this week. And he'll be going against a mediocre Panthers run defense.
Even if Henderson doesn't capitalize on his attempts, he should also see work in the passing game, where he's been efficient. In what could be a nice day for the offense, Henderson shapes up as an RB3.
