Week 5 Walkthrough: Jonathan Taylor Hits the Jackpot

Pat Kerrane

03 Oct 2025

Welcome to the Week 5 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the fifth glorious football Sunday of 2025.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Raiders at Colts, 1 PM

Raiders

Implied Team Total: 20.5

Heading into Week 4, the Raiders had allowed the second-most pressures in the league, behind only the Browns. But last week, they faced a Bears pass rush that ranks 30th in pass rush win rate, 29th in pressure rate, and dead last in quick pressure rate. As you would expect, the Raiders held up well in protection, dropping from 17 pressures per game allowed from Weeks 1-3 down to just six last week.

With decent pass protection, Geno Smith turned in his highest success rate of the season. Unfortunately, he also tossed three picks, tanking his efficiency.

Smith's play this season has been very frustrating, especially considering that last week was a layup matchup.

One of Smith's issues is that he's taking a long time to get the ball out. Against a better pass rush than Chicago's—an extremely low bar—we should expect pressure.

The Raiders' offensive line hasn't been terrible in pass protection this year... but it just took abig hit this week with LT Kolton Miller suffering a high ankle sprain against the Bears. Miller has been the Raiders' best blocker in both the pass and the run game and he's now on injured reserve.

This complicates this matchup.

On paper, the Colts look like a bit of a pass funnel.

Denver has the lowest pass rate against Indianapolis this year, at just 62%—in line with the 2025 league average. And no opponent has had a PROE lower than -1%.

The Colts' unexpectedly potent offense is likely a major factor here. The Colts are pushing opposing offenses. But the Colts are also struggling to pressure opposing QBs, making a pass-heavy approach more palatable.

In some ways, this looks like a do-over matchup for the Raiders. Their passing game flopped against a bad pass rush last week. Now they get another bad pass rush...

However, the Raiders don't appear likely to build their game plan around the pass. The Colts may be able to push them to the air, but they might have to push hard. Over the last two weeks, the Raiders have pivoted dramatically to the run.

The Raiders are beginning to profile as a team that will stubbornly stick to a run-first approach even if the game script gets away from them. In fairness, this isn't how they played things in Weeks 1-2, but this is a new regime that is probably pretty disappointed with Geno Smith so far. If they're shifting to a hide-the-QB approach, it's understandable.

Meanwhile, after a slow start, Ashton Jeanty turned in 47 rush yards over expected against the Bears, second on the week to only Omarion Hampton (96)—turns out the rookie RBs can play.

Jeanty's usage was also much stronger in Week 4, after dipping in Weeks 2-3.

For the season, Jeanty still has some work to do in the success rate department. Even last week, he had just a 38% success rate, which is unimpressive.

But Jeanty is flashing as an elite tackle breaker with breakaway ability. He will likely be a core piece of the Raiders' offensive game plan here. He will also be going against a Colts defense that has not been very good against the run. Jeanty is a low-end RB1.

The Raiders are likely to avoid putting this game on Geno Smith's shoulders, even if it means sacrificing win probability.

But the passing game might be ready to take a step forward, with Brock Bowers beginning to show more signs of life.

Bowers' route participation has been very strong over the last two weeks. And last week, he spiked to a 30% target share.

Unfortunately, Bowers wasn't earning targets as much as these numbers suggest. Two of his six targets and 59% of his receiving yards came on screens.

Still, the Raiders were looking to involve Bowers, and he was productive with the ball in his hands. We've been trending in the right direction with his knee injury. And despite playing with a knee brace, his profile remains very strong.

Thurday's practice report creates a potentially massive fly in the ointment here, though—Bowers was a DNP after being limited on Wednesday. If this was a planned day off, then crisis averted... he's an elite TE1 this week. But if Bowers suffered a setback, that changes things significantly. He's someone to monitor closely heading up to kickoff.

Last week was a real what-could-have-been type of outing for the Raiders. That's especially true for Jakobi Meyers, who turned a 30% TPRR on 100% route participation into just 1.30 YPRR.

Meyers is profiling as a positive regression candidate, although he's also part of a passing game that looks to be shrinking in volume.

The good news here is that the Colts will likely be without nickel CB Kenny Moore again this week. Meyers has played 64% of his snaps in the slot this year and stands to benefit the most from Moore's absence.

Meyers is also the most likely Raiders' WR to see his target share increase if Bowers plays a reduced role or is out this week.

Meyers is a WR2 as a bet that the Colts push the Raiders.

Tre Tucker came back down to earth last week, which makes sense considering he has just a 9% first-read target rate. Geno has been targeting Tucker downfield, creating valuable opportunity. But that opportunity doesn't look to be stitched into the fabric of the Raiders offense. He's a boom/bust WR5.

Colts

Implied Team Total: 27

Daniel Jones finally came back down to earth against the Rams. After playing wildly efficiently to open the year, Jones was mediocre last week.

But, honestly, Week 4 was pretty encouraging for Jones. First off all, he should have had a TD pass to Adonai Mitchell, which Mitchell inexplicably fumbled out of the back of the end zone.

Moreover, the Rams' pass rush was a significant problem—as usual. The Rams had a 46% pressure rate last week, just below the Broncos' season-leading 47% rate.

Jones was in a tough spot but didn't crumble. Even with last week's unimpressive efficiency, Jones remains an EPA chart breaker this year.

Shane Steichen also showed a willingness to lean into the passing game in a back-and-forth game, posting a season-high 68% pass rate.

The Cots also had a positive PROE on 1st down, as they've had in every game this season. This isn't an offense that is hiding Jones. Instead, they are setting him up for success.

The Colts are doing the things sharp teams do to help their QB. They're motioning at a high rate, and lead the NFL in play action rate—taking advantage of Jones spending a big chunk of his snaps under center.

Meanwhile, the Raiders have struggled against play-action this year.

The Raiders are also the least efficient blitzing defense in the NFL. Jones has faced the highest blitz rate in the NFL this year, which he's handled very impressively. This week could be a bit of a reprieve, with the Raiders blitzing at a low rate... and being bad at it.

Even with Steichen showing a willingness to pass last week, the Colts are very clearly built around the run. And as 6.5-point home favorites, they are very likely to return to a run-first game plan here.

We can't count on a ton of passing volume this week, but the Colts should be efficient when they drop back.

Tyler Warren looks like the strongest play here—by far. He's profiling as a truly elite tight end, and there's no reason to expect that to change here. He's an elite TE1.

With the Rams pushing the Colts last week, Josh Downs saw his playing time increase. Unfortunately, Downs still saw just 71% route participation. And he didn't make a very good case for more playing time. With fewer 11-personnel sets likely on tap this week, Downs is a WR5.

Speaking of missed opportunities. Adonai Mitchell turned in 91% route participation and 3.00 YPRR last week. But he also cost the Colts 14 points, with his fumbled TD and a brutally unnecessary holding penalty that brought back a Jonathan Taylor TD. Even if Alec Pierce isn't back this week—and he probably will be—it's hard to see how Mitchell is anywhere near Shane Steichen's priority list.

That leaves Michael Pittman as the only viable WR play in most leagues. Pittman has been very solid this year and f unctions as a bet on the Raiders being competitive and pushing the Colts from going into full ground-and-pound mode. Pittman is a high-end WR3.

Jonathan Taylor is a very safe bet for rushing volume this week. He's RB3 in snap share and RB9 in carry share, despite missing a decent chunk of Week 1.

But, on paper, this isn't a great spot for Taylor's rushing efficiency. The Raiders are profiling like one of the better run defenses in the leauge.

However, the Raiders have played the Patriots, Chargers, Commanders, and Bears. The Commanders rank second in EPA per rush this year, but the Chargers are just 25th, and the Bears and Patriots are 31st and 32nd. The Raiders haven't been tested by an elite rusher this year—they are about to be.

This isn't a cupcake rushing matchup. But it's not strong enough to push the Colts off of their preferred plan attack—establishing Taylor and then efficiently attacking through the air with a play-action passing attack. Taylor is an elite RB1.

(Back to Quick Links)

Cowboys at Jets, 1 PM

Cowboys

Implied Team Total: 25

Dak Prescott is coming off a legitimately elite game... in his first game without CeeDee Lamb, and against the best defense he's faced all year. Football is wild.

Prescott is now profiling like one of the best QBs in the league, which is where things stood two years ago. Hopes of a 2025 bounce-back year look to be coming to fruition.

Prescott is dealing with significant injury issues on offense, though—and not just to Lamb. Against the Packers, LT Tyler Guyton sustained a concussion. With RG Tyler Booker and C Cooper Beebe already ruled out for this game, the Cowboys are likely to be down three offensive linemen.

Fortunately, they get a Jets defense that has also been hit with a rash of injuries. New York will definitely be without linebackers Marcelino McCrary-Ball and Quincy Williams, who are both on injured reserve. They're also likely to be without EDGE Jermaine Johnson and CB Michael Carter. And, even at full strength, the Jets have one of the worst pass defenses in the league.

The Jets are an odd matchup, though. On offense, they've been run-heavy and slow, the type of team that seems more interested in playing their style of football than in winning games. This has contributed to them profiling as a run funnel.

In Week 1, the Steelers posted a 65% pass rate. Since then, opponents have ranged between 48% and 53%.

And this is despite the Jets actually having a decent run defense.

So, although the Cowboys should be decently efficient through the air, we have a handful factors that could push them toward a balanced or run-first approach—they are without their top wideout, they are down at least two starting lineman, they are facing an offense that struggles to push opponents, get a defense that opponents are attacking on the ground, and enter this game as 2.5-point favorites.

And it's not as if the Cowboys are super committed to the pass. They have a -1% PROE and have operated reasonably in line with game script.

I gotta hand it to Javonte Williams, he's been a lot more efficient this year than I thought possible. However, at the same time, efficiency isn't really the play here. Fundamentally, I still view Williams as a bet on volume. And I don't mean that as a knock. At least, in this matchup, I don't. Williams is coming off elite usage against the Packers and has a very healthy workload this year.

This isn't an uber soft run defense, but he should have plenty of work. Even if the Cowboys end up leaning to the pass, Williams isn't a zero in the receiving game. He's a high-end RB2 here.

If hoping for passing volume, we probably need the Cowboys' defense to turn in yet another disappointing outing. But as we'll get to, Dallas looks capable of being pushed by just about anyone.

And if pushed, the Cowboys do look willing to play into negative game script.

George Pickens is coming off his Cowboys breakout game, but it was actually his second game in a row with strong target numbers.

With Lamb out again, Pickens is locked in as the Cowboys' top downfield threat. Pickens is a high-end WR2.

Jake Ferguson is also playing a significant role, but his route tree is currently extremely shallow.

If the Cowboys' offensive line struggles, Ferguson could end up being the top target. And even if they hold up well against the Jets' weak pass rush, Ferguson is a safe bet to be involved. He's a high-end TE1.

Behind the Cowboys' top two receivers, there's not much to get excited about. KaVontae Turpin is in a true part-time role, and Jalen Tolbert has a very weak per-route profile, including an abysmal open score.

Jets

Implied Team Total: 22.5

When Justin Fields is playing poorly... there is truly no floor. But the guy has a ceiling. He turned in an impressive fantasy day against the Dolphins, with high-end efficiency.

Frankly, it should have been better. Garrett Wilson had one of the best TD catches of the season wiped out by the weakest OPI call of the year.

Elite Garrett Wilson TD wiped off the board for "OPI"pic.twitter.com/zpTZIB1oMt
— Underdog NFL (@UnderdogNFL) September 30, 2025

Even without that TD, Fields is profiling like a solidly above-average QB. Fields is in a run-heavy offense, and he's capable of cratering in any given matchup. It's touch-and-go. However, not many QBs can do what he does when playing good football.

Obviously, Fields plays a very specific brand of football. He takes forever to get rid of the ball, often turning down his first read, takes on pressure, and makes big mistakes. But he also attacks downfield, doesn't hang on his first read too long, and, crucially, is one of the best rushing QBs in the league.

Fields now gets a truly horrendous Cowboys secondary that will be without S Malik Hooker this week.

We're still likely to see some frustrating play from Fields here. The Jets have allowed pressure and quick pressure at the highest rate. In other words, even if Fields weren't holding the ball longer than any other QB in the NFL, they'd still be allowing a lot of pressure. And, of course, he is.

But this is more of a viewing experience issue than a fantasy concern. The Cowboys are allowing consistent chunk plays through the air. They're also sitting back and not blitzing. This should be a welcome change for Fields, who has been blitzed heavily and not played great against it.

Garrett Wilson hasn't missed a single route all season and is as locked in as a true No. 1 as any WR in the league.

Sure, Wilson's TPRR isn't as high as other No. 1 WRs', but this is his main competition at WR.

The gap from WR1 to WR2 here is outrageous, and is helping Wilson hit an elite 36% target share.

Wilson has also been remarkably efficient this year, the result of elite route running and a strong connection with Fields. This is a game where the Jets should be pushed and where Fields should be efficient overall. Wilson is a WR1.

Behind Wilson, Mason Taylor looks like the No. 2 option. He seems to have had a breakout game against the Dolphins.

Taylor's season-long profile still looks pretty uninspiring, but the Jets desperately need a second target to emerge here, and Taylor has been in a full-time role since Week 1, with his targets picking up nicely over the last two weeks. He's a TE2.

We're fortunate that the Jets' target tree is condensed, because even with a great matchup on tap, we can't count on a ton of passing volume. The Jets have been very run-heavy in Fields' starts.

As we saw on Monday, the Jets are very willing to fight against negative game script.

Despite having the highest expected pass rate (70%) in the NFL—a league that includes the Titans and Browns, the Jets rank just 21st in pass rate (61%). Their -9% PROE is the lowest in the NFL.

Entering the season, I was optimistic that the Jets would play to win games, even if, at baseline, they were a run-heavy team. This was clearly incorrect. Not only do the Jets have a PROE Arthur Smith would be proud of, but they are operating with the slowest pace in the NFL.

So, it's essential to note then, that the Cowboys are also bad at defending the run.

Against the Dolphins, Breece Hall posted a season high in carry share. That's the good news. The bad news is that even with Braelon Allen exiting the game with an injury, Hall was at just 50%, barely above Week 1 or 2.

Wth Allen now on injured reserve, Hall should see a bigger workload this week. Last week, Isaiah Davis picked up some of the slack left by Allen, but he's mostly been a long-down-and-distance / two-minute-drill snap eater.

Hall's rushing efficiency has been mediocre this year, but he's been able to hit big run at a decent rate. He's also been excellent in the receiving game.

With the potential for his best workload of the year and a great all-around matchup, Hall is an RB1.

Week 5 Walkthrough: Jonathan Taylor Hits the Jackpot

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Raiders at Colts, 1 PM