Week 8 Walkthrough: Saquon Barkley, Franchise Changing RB
Welcome to the Week 8 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the eighth glorious football Sunday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Giants at Eagles, 1 PM
- Bears at Ravens, 1 PM
- Bills at Panthers, 1 PM
- 49ers at Texans, 1 PM
- Browns at Patriots, 1 PM
- Dolphins at Falcons, 1 PM
- Jets at Bengals, 1 PM
- Buccaneers at Saints, 4:05 PM
- Cowboys at Broncos, 4:25 PM
- Titans at Colts, 4:25 PM
Giants at Eagles, 1 PM
Giants
Implied Team Total: 18
The Giants are coming off an absolute gut-punch of a loss to the Denver Broncos. Jaxson Dart played extremely efficiently, though, and nearly powered the Giants to victory. His success rate wasn't great, but given that Dart was going against an elite Broncos defense, it was a hell of a performance.
Dart now looks legitimately impressive from an EPA per game perspective. He ranks QB16, just ahead of Justin Herbert. He also ranks QB15 in success rate, just ahead of Dak Prescott. Even with last week's dissappointing success rate, he doesn't look like a negative regression candidate—he looks legit.
Last week ended up being a shootout, but not until the 4th quarter. The Giants went up 7-0 in the first quarter, led 13-0 at halftime, 19-0 after the 3rd quarter, and were leading 26-8 until 5:13 left in the 4th, when the Broncos cut the lead to 10 points. The Broncos then scored 17 more points in the remaining five minutes.
So, last week, the Giants played most of the game with a clear lead. This is similar to how Dart operated against the Eagles two weeks ago and against the Chargers in his debut start.
Brian Daboll will want to recapture the Giants' magic from a couple of weeks ago, which means a heavy dose of the run game. Last week, Tyrone Tracy's role ticked up. But Cam Skattebo still looks like the lead back. Encouragingly, his receiving role looks unexpectedly locked in. Tracy hasn't been targeted since Week 3.
Meanwhile, the Eagles haven't been that great against the run. In particular, they're struggling with consistently shutting down the run, ranking third-worst in success rate.
Consistency is Skattebo's calling card. He has an elite success rate and is breaking tackles at a high rate. That's not even counting the tackles he breaks after he gets in the end zone.
lol only Cam Skattebo lowering his helmet for more contact when he was already 3 yards into the endzone 🤣
— 🌵 Mr. Az (@MrAzSports) October 19, 2025
pic.twitter.com/rXn6ahLo6l
The Giants are 7.5-point road dogs here. But if they pull off the upset, Skattebo is likely to be a contributing factor. And even if they trail throughout, Skattebo's receiving role provides a fantasy floor. He's an RB2.
Dart turned in his best game of the season against the Eagles two weeks ago. But... the Eagles defense will look a little different this week than it did then. In Week 6, the Eagles were without Jalen Carter. Carter ranks DT6 in pass rush win rate and is coming off six pressures against the Broncos' elite offensive line. He's going to make his presence felt in this rematch.
In Week 6, the Eagles also lost CB Quinyon Mitchell to an in-game hamstring injury. Mitchell is a core piece of the Eagles' secondary, and he'll be back healthy for this game. Dart will probably struggle to recapture his Week 6 efficiency on the road against a healthier version of the Eagles' defense.
Last week, Daniel Bellinger was unexpectedly productive against the Broncos' defense. But it's tough to count on anything from Bellinger here. He has yet to post 50%+ route participation this year.
Theo Johnson actually posted elite route participation against the Broncos as part of a 12-personnel-heavy game plan. Johnson's increased usage is notable, especially with the Giants looking for answers at WR beyond Wan'Dale Robinson.
Johnson's target rate hasn't been great this year; neither has Bellinger's, by the way. But he's an increasingly safe bet for routes and is in the TE2 mix.
At wide receiver, Lil'Jordan Humphrey has been in a full-time role with Darius Slayton out. He's not doing much with his routes, though.
Wan'Dale Robinson is the clear No. 1 option in the passing game, and he's been delivering efficiently on substantial target volume.
Robinson has a 73% slot rate this season, which means he'll see plenty of Cooper DeJean, a tough draw. But Robinson has run a route on nearly every dropback since Malik Nabers' injury. He'll move around the formation some and will be the centerpiece of the downfield passing attack. Robinson is a WR3.
Eagles
Implied Team Total: 25.5
Last week, I was pretty worried about how the Eagles' passing game would fare against the Vikings' pass defense. And from a success rate perspective... I was right. But, brother, success rate doesn't pay the bills. In terms of efficiency—which is what actually drives production—Hurts was excellent.
Jalen Hurts was more efficient than Matthew Stafford against the Jaguars last week while being more inconsistent than Dillon Gabriel—because his production was built on big plays.
Of course, big throws to AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, one of the most talented WR duos in the league, are exactly what this offense has been missing. The inconsistent way Hurts got going last week wasn't ideal, but overall, it's a great sign to see this offense clicking again downfield.
For the season, Hurts looks like a minor negative regression candidate, but not an especially concerning one.
The concern for the Eagles at this point... is Saquon Barkley.
The Eagles fed Barkley against the Vikings with a season-high 78% carry share.
But the Vikings were focused on shutting Barkley down, stacking the box on 50% of his carries. Among backs with 10+ carries last week, only David Montgomery (85%), Zach Charbonnet (67%), Jahmyr Gibbs (53%), and Quinshon Judkins (52%) saw a higher stacked box rate. Barkley actually managed to rush for 3 RYOE... but averaged just 2.4 YPC on 18 carries.
Last week, I had some hope for Barkley with the idea that the Eagles could pivot to the run to avoid a difficult passing matchup. But Brian Flores cut them off at the pass... by taking away Barkley and daring the Eagles to pass. That ultimately backfired, but that doesn't help you if you played Barkley last week.
But two weeks ago, the Giants only stacked the box 25% of the time against Barkley. They limited him by playing from ahead. Barkley was efficient on his 12 carries, turning in 16 RYOE, his highest mark of the year. But with the Eagles trailing, they weren't able to lean on him as much as usual.
This week, the Eagles will be looking to take control of this game, rather than let the Giants dictate to them again. As 7.5-point home favorites, they should be able to play from ahead, giving them an opportunity to get rolling downhill against a legitimately weak Giants run defense.
They also face a Giants defense that has been solid against the pass, but that looks likely to be without EDGE Brian Burns (hip), CB Paulson Adebo (knee), and S Jevon Holland (knee) this week, all of whom have yet to practice this week.
With the Giants dealing with injuries to key defensive starters, the Eagles should be able to keep the chains moving more consistently with the passing game.
As we saw last week, though, the Eagles still fundamentally want to be a run-first team. The Giants made them chase points two weeks ago—that's not how they want to operate.
Barkley has been a major disappointment this year. The offensive line doesn't look nearly as dominant, but more than that, Barkley just hasn't been nearly as explosive.
But with a 41% success rate, he's been solidly consistent. And this week, with his back against the fantasy wall, Barkley gets a matchup and game environment perfectly suited to proving he's still the explosive, franchise-changing RB that Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll slept on.
Barkley is a high-end RB1.
Jalen Hurts will be going against a Giants pass rush that can still get pressure even if Brian Burns is out. But the Giants also play a ton of man coverage. If healthy enough to play, AJ Brown is set up well here.
Against man coverage, Brown has a 37% TPRR and a 4.26 YPRR—only Stefon Diggs (4.65) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.51) rate higher in YPRR against man. And if Paulson Adebo is out, CB Deonte Banks will play a significant role. Banks has been a legitimate liability this year, and not someone you want one-on-one with AJ Brown.
Unfortunately, Brown has yet to practice this week with a hamstring injury. With the Eagles going on bye in Week 9, they could opt to rest him even if he feels good enough to go on Sunday.
If Brown suits up, he's a high-end WR2 as a bet on his ceiling in this matchup.
DeVonta Smith has been far less impressive against man, with a 22% TPRR and 1.35 YPRR. But Smith is also coming off an elite performance against the Vikings, and could be operating as the Eagles' clear-cut No. 1 WR if Brown is out. He's a low-end WR2 if Brown plays and a low-end WR1 if Brown misses.
Dallas Goedert is coming off a quiet game against the Vikings. But he actually posted his highest route participation of the season.
Goedert is a very safe bet for routes this week, and has seen his target rate spike several times this year. He's a locked-in TE1.
Bears at Ravens, 1 PM
Bears
Implied Team Total: 21.25
After losing to the Vikings and Lions to start the year, the Bears are now on a four-game winning streak, beating the Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders, and Saints.
Given that, you would probably assume that Caleb Williams has had more than one efficient game this season.
He has not.
This year, Williams is turning in very similar efficiency to Trevor Lawrence, but has been significantly less consistent. Only Bo Nix, JJ McCarthy, Joe Flacco, Cooper Rush, Cam Ward, and Dillon Gabriel have a worse success rate than Williams.
Williams continues to hold the ball for a long time. His 3.23-second time to throw is the slowest in the NFL.
Williams' lengthy time to throw makes him more matchup dependent. Against good pass rush units, the floor is very low. However, this week he faces a Ravens pass rush that hasn't had any answers since losing Nnamdi Madubuike for the year. This week, they will also be without DT Broderick Washington and EDGE Tavius Robinson. Williams should have time to throw.
The Ravens' secondary is much healthier than it was a few weeks ago. But this still looks like a good matchup for Rome Odunze.
Odunze has been frustrating over the last two weeks. He's operating a true deep threat, but hasn't been connecting with Williams. His target numbers have also been uninspiring since the bye.
The good news here is that Caleb Williams should have time to throw, which will help unlock deep targets for Odunze. The even better news is that the Ravens play man coverage at a 36% clip, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
For a talented deep threat, the combination of man coverage and time to throw... is pretty exciting.
With Odunze on the field, Caleb Williams has had 22 attempts with over 2.5 seconds to throw against man coverage. Odunze has a 46% TPRR, a 17.3 aDOT, and a 5.14 YPRR in that sample. We're only talking about 10 targets here. But still, we're looking for Odunze to get loose downfield a couple times—that alone could make his week. This matchup clearly boosts his odds of doing that.
More generally, it's a high-upside game environment where his QB should be able to get away with his downfield-shot-taking playstyle. Odunze is a low-end WR1.
DJ Moore is a safe bet for routes in a matchup where Williams could spike, which makes him somewhat interesting. But it's hard to find a ton to get excited about in his profile. He's peaked at just a 19% TPRR and 1.84 YPRR.
Per open score, Moore's route running has been impressive, which is something. But, with just a 7% first-read target rate, his role in the offense is pretty weak. Moore is a WR4.
Luther Burden continues to flash when on the field... but remains in a rotational role.
The Bears' 2nd round rookie won't be in a full-time role this week... but their 1st round rookie might be. Cole Kmet suffered a back injury against the Saints, hasn't practiced yet this week, and looks unlikely to play.
With Kmet's playing time curtailed to just 22% route participation against the Saints, Colston Loveland posted a season-high 63%. If Kmet is out, we should see Loveland hit 70%+ with upside for 80%+ route participation.
This matchup provides an additional boost for the Bears' passing game—play action.
The Ravens have been awful against play action this year. Meanwhile, play action has been a point of emphasis for the Bears since their Week 5 bye. Over their first four games, the Bears utilized play action on 29% of their dropbacks. They're up to 37% over the last two weeks.
Odunze has been involved at roughly his normal rate on play action, with a 23% TPRR. Moore has a 15% TPRR on play action, also matching his season-long rate.
But on play action, Cole Kmet's TPRR jumps from 13.8% to 20%. Colston Loveland jumps from 16.5% to 19.4%. This game plan could involve more tight end targets... while also seeing those targets condense to only one tight end.
Loveland hasn't been efficient this year, but there are a couple of hopeful signs in his profile. First, he has a strong 14% first-read target rate. He looks to be a priority target when on the field. Second, Loveland has a 9.6 aDOT; he looks like a downfield weapon, more than an underneath option, which is a good fit for this matchup. Loveland is a high-end TE2.
In addition to increasing their play action rate, the Bears have increased their use of motion since the bye. From Weeks 1-4, they had a 50% motion rate, and over the last two weeks, they are up to 74%. We're getting a more complex version of the Ben Johnson offense over the last two games, which looks to be helping the run game in a big way.
Over the last two weeks, the Bears are averaging 0.15 EPA per rush and a 52% success rate. Only the Colts (0.33; 55%) have been more efficient. From Weeks 1-5, the Bears were averaging -0.25 EPA per play with a 35% success rate. Only the Patriots were less efficient on the ground over that span.
The Bears increased use of motion provides confidence that Johnson will continue to add run-game wrinkles as the season progresses. Still, it's too early to say that the Bears have transformed from a bottom-of-the-barrel rushing attack to a dangerous one.
But Chicago's season-long rushing stats now look solid. In other words, it's not just a two-week trend. Using the biggest sample we have, the Bears run game looks pretty good. The Ravens run defense... does not.
As 6.5-point road underdogs, the Bears are unlikely to be in complete control of this game. But with a -3% PROE, they look likely to maintain balance unless truly pushed into negative game script—we've yet to see them abandon the run this year.
Unfortunately, rushing volume looks likely to be split. Kyle Monangai is coming off a season-high 33% carry share against the Saints and played nearly half the snaps.
Swift is still the lead back. But his carry share is low enough that an inefficient rushing day could lead to a weak fantasy game—he's fragile.
At the same time, Swift has been playing decently, is part of a run game that looks to be on an upswing, and gets a soft matchup in a game with a 49.5-point total. There's upside here. Swift is an RB2.
Ravens
Implied Team Total: 27.75
Obviously, Lamar Jackson is going to be much, much better than whoever his backup QB happens to be. But it's still worth reminding ourselves just how much better Jackson has been than Cooper Rush this year.
Jackson's efficiency was even stronger through the first three weeks of the season, before he faltered against the Chiefs.
This week, he gets a matchup that should help him get back on track. The Bears have not been good against the pass this year. Their pass rush has been especially weak.
Like Caleb Williams, Lamar Jackson is taking a long time to get rid of the ball. With a 3.15-second time to throw, he is tied with Jalen Hurts for the second-slowest in the league. Only Caleb Williams (3.23) is slower.
And this style is contributing to pressure. Per PFF, only Jaxson Dart (15%) is allowing pressure on a higher percentage of his dropbacks than Jackson.
Jackson is also turning pressure into sacks at a 29% rate—tied with Cam Ward for the highest in the league.
The Bears' weak pass rush looks critical to helping get Jackson hit the ground running in his return.
However, the Bears have been pretty solid in coverage. The big question this week is whether CB Tyrique Stevenson is able to play. Starting CB Jaylon Johnson is on injured reserve, as is reserve CB Jaylon Jones. Stevenson hasn't practiced yet this week, and looks likely to miss.
Last week, Stevenson's in-game shoulder injury left Nick McCloud as the next man up on the outside. McCloud, who typically plays nickel corner, has not been strong in coverage; neither has Nahshon Wright, who will be playing quite a bit regardless of Stevenson's status.
At the very least, this is a good matchup for the Ravens' passing game. Ultimately, it could prove to be a great one.
Even if the Bears aren't starting multiple backups at outside corner, this still looks like an exciting matchup for Zay Flowers.
Flowers takes on a Bears' defense that is playing man coverage at a 33% rate, fifth-highest. Against man coverage this year, Flowers has a 32% TPRR with a 3.35 YPRR. Only Stefon Diggs (4.65), Jaxon Smith-Njibba (4.51), AJ Brown (4.26), and Puka Nacua (3.54) have a higher YPRR against man.
Flowers has been earning targets and playing efficiently this year, despite not having Jackson for two games. He now gets Jackson back in a matchup that suits both his QB and his man-beating skill set. Flowers is a WR1.
Rashod Bateman is coming off just 60% route participation against the Rams. And in two games without Jackson, he totaled one reception for eight yards on three targets. It's been bleak.
Bateman still looks like the clear No. 2 WR. But that means less on the Ravens than on most other teams. They have multiple WRs rotating in behind Bateman and, against the Rams, used 12-personnel as their base offense.
Mark Andrews posted decent 73% route participation.
Meanwhile, Isaiah Likely was significantly higher, at 85%.
This sets up Mark Andrews as the No. 2 option in the passing game, ahead of Bateman. But Likely's involvement is a wild card. Despite a weak profile to this point, he could prove to be the No. 2 this week after another week to recuperate from his preseason ankle injury.
Andrews is a high-end TE2, with Likely as a TE2. Bateman is a WR5 as a bet on the matchup.
With a -3% PROE and a -50 point differential, the Ravens are profiling like a stubbornly run-heavy team.
However, their numbers are heavily skewed by their style without Jackson when, understandably, they were trying to hide Cooper Rush and Snoop Huntley. With Jackson, they are willing to lean on the run, but typically from a position of strength.
With the Ravens as 6.5-point home favorites, they have potential to be run-heavy here. Doubtlessly, they would prefer to be run-heavy—it would mean they are winning the game.
And the Ravens will face a mediocre Bears run defense.
Derrick Henry's snap share hasn't been impressive this year. But he's a safe bet to carry the load in the running game.
With Jackson back, it's a lot easier to get on board with Henry's profile, which is dependent on explosive runs and TD-equity. He's a low-end RB1.
