Week 9 Walkthrough: Tyler Warren, Man of Steel
Welcome to the Week 9 Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the ninth glorious football Sunday of 2025.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Quick Links
- Colts at Steelers, 1 PM
- Bears at Bengals, 1 PM
- Falcons at Patriots, 1 PM
- Vikings at Lions, 1 PM
- Panthers at Packers, 1 PM
- Chargers at Titans, 1 PM
- 49ers at Giants, 1 PM
- Broncos at Texans, 1 PM
- Jaguars at Raiders, 4:05 PM
- Saints at Rams, 4:05 PM
- Chiefs at Bills, 4:25 PM
Colts at Steelers, 1 PM
Colts
Implied Team Total: 26.75
On some level, I still want to be skeptical of the Colts. This is a Daniel Jones offense, after all. This dominant offensive performance can't be real, right? There's no way that Jones is legitimately one of the best QBs in the NFL this year...
But week after week, I reach a similar conclusion—maybe the wheels fall off at some point, but I don't think it will be this week.
My takeaway for this week is very much the same. Despite a high-end pass rush, the Steelers' pass defense has been porous.
And Pittsburgh doesn't stop the run well.
Ollie Connelly has broken down the Colts' offensive success, highlighting their ability to put defenses in a run/pass conflict on every play. That's a credit to Shane Steichen, Daniel Jones, the offensive line, and perhaps most of all Jonathan Taylor. But it's also a formula that relies on avoiding negative game script, which makes the run less of a threat.
The Colts travel to Kansas City in a couple of weeks. Given their issues at cornerback, that will be a big test for this formula. The Chiefs are capable of actually pushing the Colts off of their preferred mode of attack.
But are the Steelers?
As I'll get to on the Pittsburgh side, the Steelers are less conservative than the typical Arthur Smith offense, and Aaron Rodgers is playing pretty well this year. But that gives me hope that the Steelers will keep up with the Colts, not push them into obvious dropback situations.
And even if the Steerls somehow pulled that off, I'm increasingly less confident that Jones would falter with the game on his shoulders. A couple of weeks ago, I noted that his weakest game of the year coincided with the Colts' highest pass rate.
But over the last two weeks, the Colts have posted their second and third highest pass rates of the season... and Jones has been just fine.
In my defense, the Colts were leading in both games, and so Jones was operating as a frontrunner, where he is most dangerous. But still, early in the season, you could say the Colts were managing, even hiding Jones a bit. You can't say that anymore.
Over the last two weeks, it would be more accurate to say that they were featuring Jones.
Even still, the run game is making everything go. The Colts rank first in play action rate and are extremely efficient when utilizing it.
Theoretically, if the Steelers shut down Taylor, that would put the Colts in a bind. But, uh, good luck doing that. Taylor is playing out of his mind.
Taylor is consistently dominating snaps and carries and has a solid receiving role. He's an elite RB1.
Jonathan Taylor is the Colts' featured runner; Tyler Warren is the Colts' featured weapon in the fake run game. He has a 36% TPRR on play action dropbacks, with 4.95 YPRR.
For Warren to have a big day, we don't need the Steelers to truly push the Colts. We just need them to fight back enough for the Colts to keep their foot on the gas. Warren will be just fine in positive game script; we just don't want the Colts to pull their starters. Warren is an elite TE1.
Michael Pittman is coming off his most efficient game of the season and is a safe bet for routes as the Colts clear No. 1 outside WR.
Pittman is also a key playmaker on play action, with a 28% TPRR and 2.38 YPRR. Like Warren, he doesn't need the Colts to be in true passing script. A back-and-forth game environment will suit him just fine. Pittman is a low-end WR2.
Josh Downs had a quiet game in his return from injury last week. And his playing time is tied more to a true high-scoring game environment than Warren's or Pittman's. If the Colts play from ahead, we're likely looking at sub-70% route participation again.
On play action, Downs has just a 13% TPRR. But more importantly, he's averaging just 3.4 play action routes per game. Michael Pittman is at 9.5, and Warren is at 7.6. Play action has been worth 2.75 targets per game for Warren, 2.6 for Pittman, and... 0.4 for Downs.
Honestly, unless the Steelers can push the Colts, Downs isn't that much better of a bet for targets than Alec Pierce, who is turning in a strong season.
Downs is a WR4 here as a bet on this being a high-dropback game environment. Pierce is a WR5.
Steelers
Implied Team Total: 23.75
The Steelers offense... is an Arthur Smith offense. I've lost count of how many tight ends they use, but I'm pretty sure it's like... eight? And, of course, they have a negative pass rate over expected.
But the Steelers are at just a -1% PROE this year. By Arthur Smith's standards, that's truly pass-heavy. Put another way—even with one of the most run-heavy offensive coordinators in recent memory, the Steelers look like a pretty normal NFL team this year.
Smith is still making his presence felt. The Steelers have been tilting pretty heavily to the run on 1st-and-10 in recent weeks.
But they have also posted above-average pass rates in each of their last two games, including a legitimately pass-heavy 71% against the Packers.
This offense isn't necessarily embracing the pass. But it's clear that, with Aaron Rodgers' influence, the Steelers are now willing to pass in line with negative game script, or at least not completely fight it.
That is absolutely critical for this week's matchup, with the Colts—an absolute wagon—coming to the Steel City.
With a 26.75 implied team total, the Colts are expected to do their typical thing. But as just 3-point underdogs, the betting market isn't expecting the Steelers to get steamrolled here.
They're expecting Aaron Rodgers to be able to hang—and probably with a pretty high pass rate.
Given the way that Rodgers has played this year, that is a reasonable expectation. Although he ranks just QB26 in success rate, he ranks QB16 in EPA per game. He hasn't been consistent, but he's still delivered strong efficiency this year.
This dynamic sets Rodgers up as a negative regression candidate. And, as we saw last week and in Week 2 against the Seahawks, Rodgers has a pretty low floor.
However, this week, Rodgers faces a far less worrisome pass rush than Seattle's or Green Bay's. He gets a below-average Colts pass rush paired with very weak cornerback play.
Among 120 CBs with 100+ defensive snaps, Mekhi Blackmon ranks 84th in yards allowed per coverage snap, Kenny Moore ranks 95th, and Jonathan Edwards ranks 108th. The Colts' season-long coverage numbers reflect Charvarius Ward's contribution. Ward ranks 43rd in yards allowed per coverage snap, but Ward is on injured reserve.
Unfortunately, the Steelers will likely be without LG Isaac Seumalo, who has not practiced this week due to a pectoral injury. Center Zach Frazier does at least look likely to suit up after getting in a limited practice on Thursday. On the Colts' side, they are expected to be without DT Grover Stewart. So pass protection doesn't look like a big concern here.
With Rodgers set up for solid volume and efficiency, this is one of the better setups that DK Metcalf has seen this year. After a bizarrely low aDOT to begin the year, Rodgers has been finding Metcalf deep in recent weeks, and this is a matchup where we could see Metcalf get loose downfield.
Calvin Austin returned to the lineup last week and will operate as the No. 2 WR, but his role is far less impactful than Metcalf's.
In a game with a 50.5-point total, Metcalf profiles as a high-end WR2 with Austin as a WR5.
At tight end, Pat Freiermuth got in a full practice on Thursday and looks to be good to go after suffering a quad injury.
Freiermuth has seen meaningful route participation in every game this year, but has rarely been in a full-time role.
The good news is that Darnell Washington's usage has tapered off recently.
Washington looks game plan specific; he seems to be a part of the Steelers' ground-and-pound mode. We probably won't see that version of the offense this week.
With Friermuth healthy, we're still looking at muddled tight end usage. Jonnu Smith remains involved. But, so far, when Smith doesn't get in the end zone—which he's only done twice this year—he's been pretty useless for fantasy.
In a split tight end role, Smith is a low-end TE2 with Freiermuth as a high-end TE3.
This being an Arthur Smith offense, I don't expect the Steelers to abandon the run, unless things get completely out of hand. And the Steelers should be able to move the ball decently on the ground against a middling Cols run defense.
Over the last two games, Jaylen Warren has retaken control of the rushing workload in Pittsburgh. He's also involved as a receiver, despite losing some routes and targets to Kenny Gainwell.
Warren has been impressively efficient this year, making his recent usage very encouraging heading into this game. He's a low-end RB1.
Gainwell has also played well this year and is in the RB4 mix as a bet on him seeing more work in negative game script.
Bears at Bengals, 1 PM
Bears
Implied Team Total: 26.75
Caleb Williams is coming off a series of soft matchups. That's true from a variety of lenses, but especially from the perspective of EPA allowed per dropback. Over his last five games, Williams has faced the Cowboys (32nd), Raiders (26th), Commanders (24th), Saints (22nd), and Ravens (28th). But while Williams was impressive against Dallas, he's been concerningly inefficient in easy matchups over the last month.
Of the 36 QBs with 100+ dropbacks this year, Williams ranks QB24 in EPA per game and QB33 in success rate. Only Russell Wilson (41%), Cam Ward (40%), and Dillon Gabriel (36%) have a worse success rate than Williams (42%).
Over this stretch, I've largely been optimistic on Williams, noting that his playstyle magnifies opposing pass rush strength because at 3.20 seconds, he has the longest time to throw in the league—but that he also has upside against weak pass rush units.
Williams has not made good on that upside over the last month... but I still think it exists. As we would hope in these matchups, Williams is attacking downfield; the issue is that with a -7% completion percentage over expected, he hasn't been accurate. This helps explain his poor success rate.
Honestly, I was hoping I'd see the Browns on tap for the Bears this week, so I could switch things up and note how low Williams' floor is against an elite pass rush. I'm sick of expressing optimism for a player I know full well can flop even in a good setup. But the Bears don't face the Browns until Week 15.
This week, we're forced to contend with the fact that Williams is once again in a good spot. In fact, this is a pristine matchup. Williams faces a defense that just allowed 502 yards of offense to Aaron Glenn / Justin Fields Jets, who were down to Tyler Johnson as their top wideout.
The Bengals will likely be without Trey Hendrickson for this game, who hasn't practiced this week. Hendrickson was playing through a hip injury against the Jets and left the game. He'll likely be playing through pain even if he suits up. And Hedrickson is the Bengals' only plan for generating pressure. They don't have any other pass rush threats, barely blitz, and are extremely vulnerable when they do send extra rushers.
The Bengals are also weak in coverage.
As Justin Fields just demonstrated, if your issue is holding the ball way too long and you want to have an enjoyable Sunday... play the Bengals.
Williams' inaccuracy may still rear its head here, but this is clearly a high-upside setup.
Last week, Rome Odunze looked extremely well-suited for the matchup, given his ability to beat man coverage and win downfield. He didn't score a TD against the Ravens and so didn't have a massive fantasy day, but he still generated impressive production with a 7/114/0 receiving line on 10 targets. And that was while facing a season-high double coverage rate.
This week, Odunze gets a Bengals defense that plays man coverage at a league-average 23% rate. But it's also a defense that hasn't been very aggressive about using double coverage.
Odunze's role as a deep threat makes him a bit boom/bust, but it also creates a very high ceiling in a soft matchup like this one. He's a low-end WR1.
DJ Moore is coming off his most efficient outing of the season, and could be aided this week by a more condensed target tree, with Olamide Zaccheaus dealing with a knee injury (DNP/LP) and Luther Burden in the concussion protocol. But it's hard to get excited about Moore, given how consistently weak his target numbers have been.
Moore is involved in the screen game, which is a nice bonus. But he just doesn't look to be a priority in the downfield passing game, with an extremely weak 7% first-read target rate. Moore is a WR4.
With Cole Kmet out, Colston Loveland was in a full-time role against the Ravens. Unfortunately, he turned in weak target numbers and was inefficient on his opportunity.
Kmet has been limited in practice this week and may return for this game. But the last time we saw Kmet finish a game, he was splitting time with Loveland against the Commanders. And the rookie had the better end of that split.
Still, Loveland is not producing like a player who can pay off in a Dalton Kincaid-style role. We need every route we can get right now. If Kmet is out again, Loveland profiles as a high-end TE2 as a bet on the matchup. Otherwise, he's a borderline TE2.
As you may have picked up on... I'm having trouble fully believing in Caleb Williams, which gives me something in common with Ben Johnson. With a -3% PROE, the Bears are firmly a run-first team. Even in a 30-16 loss to a Ravens team that generated quick pressure on just 12% of Williams' dropbacks—the league average is 23%—the Bears actively fought against a pass-heavy script.
If you're looking to run the ball on the Bengals, nothing about the rushing matchup will deter you from doing that.
The hope for the Bears' passing game is that the Bengals will be their typically pass-heavy selves, and against a weak and depleted Bears defense, help this game live up to its 51-point total.
But if the Bengals offense flops here—or if, heaven forbid, Joe Flacco is ruled out with his shoulder injury and we get Jake Browning—we can count on the Bears to lean on the run game in a big way.
The Bears are operating similarly to the Raiders, Falcons, and Panthers... they look like a team trying to hide its QB.
Unfortunately, the Bears' backfield is split, with D'Andre Swift seeing between 44% and 54% of carries in every game since Week 1.
To be fair, Swift is still the lead back here; he just doesn't have a total lock on the workload. Swift is also running well this year and has a strong setup as a versatile RB in a high-total game environment against a defense that is weak against both the pass and the run.
The biggest issue this week could be his health. Swift missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but is still expected to play. But even if he's good to go, he's clearly banged up, making an expanded role this week much less likely. Swift is an RB2.
Kyle Monangai is seeing enough work to be a nuisance. But he's been relatively unimpressive with the work he's gotten. It's not like he's mounting a strong case for more playing time. But he's worth keeping in mind as a potential borderline RB2 if Swift is out.
Bengals
Implied Team Total: 24.25
Joe Flacco is coming off a matchup against the Jets, the easiest defense he's seen since joining the Bengals. And while he wasn't as efficient as he was against Pittsburgh, Flacco turned in another strong game.
Due to an extremely weak start to the year with the Browns, Flacco ranks just QB33 in EPA per game and QB32 in success rate this year.
But, looking at just his three games with the Bengals, Flacco looks far more impressive. His numbers over the last three weeks are in line with Daniel Jones' 2025 averages.
While with the Bengals, Flacco has been excellent against man coverage. He's averaged 0.03 EPA per dropback against zone but 0.22 EPA per dropback against man.
That makes this week's matchup pretty appealing. The Bears are playing man coverage at the fifth-highest rate. They will also be without outside cornerback Jaylon Johnson, who has been on injured reserve since late September, and nickel corner Kyler Gordon, who suffered a high ankle sprain against the Ravens.
The Bears also have a very weak pass rush; the strength of their defense is supposed to be their secondary. But that strength is likely significantly overstated by the season-long numbers, given their injuries at cornerback.
The biggest issue for Flacco in this matchup is his own health. He missed practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury and was limited on Thursday. It sounds like he shouldn't have any limitations for this game, but he's someone to monitor heading up to kickoff. Whether or not he plays has implications for both offenses.
Assuming health, this matchup is helpful for Flacco; it could be massive for Ja'Marr Chase.
On top of the lack of a pass rush and injuries at corner, the Bears don't double-cover at a very high rate. With Ja'Marr Chase coming to town, they may change up that tendency. But even if they do, it's very hard to take Chase away with Flacco playing point guard, as the Packers, Steelers, and Jets have all learned.
Opponents have also been attempting to take away Tee Higgins, and with more success. Higgins is also operating as a true downfield threat, whereas Chase is a high-volume YAC receiver.
In Jake Browning's three starts, Ja'Marr Chase totaled 22 targets. In Flacco's three starts, he's totaled 53... with 23 targets against the Steelers alone.
In a soft matchup and a high-total game environment, Chase is an elite WR1.
Higgins is more volatile than Chase, but mainly in the bad sense of the word. His ceiling is simply not higher than Chase's... and his floor is much less locked in. However, Higgins does have a strong ceiling here by normal WR standards. He's a low-end WR2.
At tight end, things look like a bit of a mess, even with Mike Gesicki on injured reserve. Against the Jets, Fant posted just 42% route participation.
Fant split time with both Drew Sample and Tanner Hudson.
Fant has been decently efficient when actually on the field. But with the potential for sub-50% route participation again, he's just a TE3.
Even with a condensed target tree and a soft passing matchup, there might normally be a bit of concern for passing volume here. The Bears are profiling as a run funnel.
This effect makes sense, given that the Bears have not been good against the run.
However, we can trust Zac Taylor to maintain solid passing volume here. It's not that the Bengals never shift to the run, but at 69% they are tied—one might say 69ing—with the Titans for the highest pass rate in the league.
Cincinnati's 7% PROE on 1st down also trails only Indianapolis (9%). And they have been consistently aggressive on 1st-and-10 in Flacco's three starts.
The Bengals may end up being fairly balanced here, but they are very unlikely to be truly run-heavy. We've only seen them operate like that once all year—in Browning's first start, facing a Brian Flores defense.
Even with the offense likely to flow through the passing game, Chase Brown is a strong start here. Like D'Andre Swift on the other side of this game, Brown doesn't have total control of his backfield. Samaje Perine is stealing valuable work.
However, Brown has a strong success rate and has maintained a solid role as a receiver. His floor is lower than ideal, and his ceiling is well below his preseason ADP promised, but Brown is still an RB2 here.
Falcons at Patriots, 1 PM
Falcons
Implied Team Total: 19.5
I'm not sure how much of Penix's Week 8 absence was due to the Falcons wanting another look at Kirk Cousins. But to the extent that it was... they probably saw more than enough. Against an extremely vulnerable Dolphins defense, he played like one of the worst QBs in the league, turning in just a 27th percentile mark in EPA per play.
Penix hasn't been great this year, though. Back in Week 3, against the Panthers, Penix was much worse than Cousins was last week. And he turned
Cousins-esque efficiency against the Vikings in Week 2 and the 49ers in Week 7.
I would argue that Penix gives the team a higher ceiling at this point, although I guess you could make a case for Cousins based on last year's ceiling.
After logging two limited practices to start the week, Penix looks likely to return for this game. But regardless of who is at QB, it's fair to say that the Falcons will be starting a volatile pocket passer. And the Falcons will be facing a Patriots pass defense that looks increasingly strong.
A few weeks ago, the Patriots' coverage numbers were very weak. But with Christian Gonzalez back and the rest of the defense remaining very healthy, they've turned things around in a big way. They now look like a top-10 secondary by the season-long numbers, which still understate their strength a bit. Among 120 CBs with 100+ snaps, nickel Marcus Jones ranks 55th in yards allowed per coverage snap... and Jones is the worst of the Patriots' five starters at cornerback or safety by this metric. This is a healthy secondary without any obvious weak links.
The Patriots' pass rush is solid as well, with Milton Williams ranking DT4 in pass rush win rate, Christian Barmore ranking DT13, and K'Lavon Chaisson ranking EDGE17. The good news for the Falcons is that all five starting offensive linemen are healthy. And while RT Elijah Wilkinson has been a minor liability in pass protection, they should be able to keep the Patriots' pass rush largely at bay.
The Falcons' ability to best the Patriots' secondary will be determined more by Drake London's health than Michael Penix's. London has also been limited in practice this week as he works back from a hip injury.
Like Penix, London has been hit or miss this year, but his availability would lift the ceiling of the entire passing offense.
With London out last week, Darnell Mooney wasn't even close to a replacement. In fairness to Mooney, the Falcons didn't really attempt to install him in that role. He operated mainly as a deep threat, with KhaDarel Hodge dominating first-read targets and WR targets instead.
Mooney faced some double coverage last week, but not enough to really account for last week's no-show. And while it's only one game, it's hard to have a lot of faith in a bounce back in a much harder matchup this week, even if Penix is back and London is out again.
If London is out, Mooney profiles as a WR3. If London plays, London is a high-end WR2, with Mooney as a WR5.
Last week, Kyle Pitts posted a team-high nine targets. But his first-read target rate remained unimpressive even with London out of the lineup. Honestly, that's not a huge concern. Pitts is running a route on almost every dropback, and he's earning targets fairly consistently, even with an oddly low first-read target rate.
The first-read data isn't the be-all, end-all, but it does have me a bit skeptical that Pitts can truly dominate targets. You generally need to be a priority on the playsheet for that to happen.
Still, Pitts is a low-end TE1 as a bet on his truly elite 92% route participation and impressive 20% TPRR.
Regardless of who is at QB, the Falcons will likely run their offense through Bijan Robinson.
Robinson is coming off a strangely quiet game against a weak Dolphins run defense. He saw just nine carries and was held to 25 scoreless rushing yards. Robinson also saw just three targets after seeing 5+ targets in every game through Week 7. Despite being a true superstar, Robinson continues to lose meaningful work to Tyler Allgeier.
The sort of good news is that the Falcons are committed to the ground game. They rank 25th with a -3% PROE and 27th with -4% PROE on 1st down. Even in negative game script, we can count on a healthy dose of the run.
And when leading, the Falcons can really lean into positive game script.
The Falcons' overall rushing volume is helping to make up for Robinson's lack of a true workhorse role. But in this matchup, a ton of rushing volume isn't really the best way to set up Robinson for a big fantasy day.
The Patriots have an elite run defense.
Ideally, this game goes to script—with the Patriots as 5.5-point home favorites. A trailing but non-blowout script would help push the Falcons to pass at a solid clip, while also keeping Robinson involved throughout the game.
And, while it's not a great matchup, if the Falcons simply give Robinson enough touches, I'll happily bet on him to produce here. Robinson is a high-end RB1.
Patriots
Implied Team Total: 25
Drake Maye's unfortunate tendency to take sacks was on display last week. The Browns sacked Maye six times, with Myles Garrett setting a Browns franchise record with five sacks.
And largely, these sacks were on Maye more than the Patriots' offensive line. The Browns had a 22% quick-pressure rate, just below the league average, and converted just one into a sack. The Browns' 43% pressure rate was primarily driven by Maye holding onto the ball, as were five of his six sacks.
Because even last week, facing a team where pretty much every opponent makes it a point to get rid of the ball quickly, Maye turned in a 3.09-second time to throw.
This is actually longer than his 3.04-second time to throw for the season as a whole.
I assumed the Browns' elite pass rush would speed Maye up. It didn't. But the Browns still couldn't slow Maye down. He turned in his fifth consecutive game with a 75th+ percentile mark in EPA per play.
After Jordan Love turned in elite efficiency against the Steelers, Maye is down to QB2 in EPA per game. He also ranks QB5 in success rate. Even after facing a legitimately difficult Browns defense, he looks like a top 5 QB.
However, Maye faces another difficult test this week against a Falcons defense that has a strong pass rush and, unlike the Browns, blitzes at a high rate.
Maye has been great against the blitz this year, but to some extent, that efficiency is schedule-related.
In terms of rankings in EPA allowed per blitzed dropback, Maye has played the Raiders (31st), Dolphins (28th), Steelers (14th), Panthers (26th), Bills (18th), Saints (21st), Titans (25th), and Browns (12th). The Dolphins, Steelers, and Saints do blitz frequently; they just aren't very good at it.
I'm not saying that the blitz is a major weakness for Maye; again, he's been good against it so far. But we know he tends to hold the ball and turn pressure into sacks. And if a high-end blitzing defense is an Achilles heel... we wouldn't know from his schedule so far; his schedule has been that easy. Therefore, this matchup has some downside potential.
The typical move against the Falcons is to run the ball. Only the Vikings (53%), Saints (55%), Bears (56%), and Jets (57%) are seeing a lower pass rate against them than the Falcons. The Falcons are a run funnel.
This effect actually looks more pronounced over the last two weeks. The 49ers and Dolphins both pounded the rock against Atlanta—a winning strategy in both cases.
The Falcons' run defense looks like a legitimate weakness, one that is shifting opposing game plans.
Unfortunately, the Patriots have one of the worst run games in football.
With a 2% PROE overall and a 2% PROE on 1st down, the Patriots profile as a pass-first team. But they aren't ideologically committed to a pass-heavy approach like the Chiefs or Bengals. They're basically a balanced team.
In their six wins this year, the Patriots have posted pass rates between 50% and 66%. This is clearly a team that would strongly prefer to run the ball more effectively than it has so far. That's sort of an obvious point—like, even the Chiefs would prefer to run the ball more effectively. But I don't think Andy Reid is losing sleep about his run game. Mike Vrabel is sending late-night trade texts like the sickest dynasty owner you've ever met.
The Patriots are a playoff-bound team with a veteran coaching staff that may see this as an opportunity to get their run game on track—something they likely see as essential to their postseason push.
From a real-life perspective, it makes perfect sense. From a fantasy perspective, it's not ideal. In addition to being inefficient, the Patriots' rushing attack isn't concentrated.
Rhamondre Stevenson had a 50% carry share against the Titans... hitting 45%+ for the first and only time all season. He was at just 40% last week.
After seeing five carries in Tennessee garbage time, Terrell Jennings was limited to just two totes versus the Browns.
Instead, TreVeyon Henderson was involved in mop-up duty against last week. And Henderson ran well, turning 10 carries into 75 yards with 19 RYOE and a solid 40% success rate. But... Henderson also fumbled at the goal line on his final carry.
TreVeyon Henderson finally got it going in Week 8
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) October 27, 2025
was the Patriots leading rusher with 10 carries for 75 yards
Gains of 12, 18 and 27 (+ a right of passage fumble)
Opened with a well-blocked inside run, then McDaniels continued to pepper him with tosses to the edge pic.twitter.com/ttWVj1BIH2
It was nice to see Henderson more involved. But given the toss-play nature of his rushing deployment, there's a good chance his usage spike was a matchup-related tactic against a Browns defense that is usually extremely difficult to run on.
Henderson's role last week was also far from enough to make him fantasy relevant. We need him to successfully make the case for substantially more playing time.
But this week, we could be back to a more traditional downhill rushing attack, which is more of Stevenson's territory.
Unfortunately, Stevenson has been unable to practice this week with a toe injury. The Patriots have been widely reported to be interested in adding RB help before the trade deadline, which makes it hard not to wonder about Stevenson's availability.
The trade rumors also significantly undermine the breakout hopes for TreVeyon Henderson, especially after he fumbled at the goal line on his final carry of Week 8. Mike Vrabel may have seen that less as a right-of-passage fumble and more of a one-way ticket to the bench.
But if Stevenson can't go, Vrabel's choices are to play his explosive 2nd-round pick or turn UDFA Terrell Jennings into his 55-minute back. I think he'll choose Henderson—making him an RB2 if Stevenson is out.
If Stevenson does play, he's set up decently with the Patriots potentially leaning on the run game as home favorites. At the same time, he will be a fragile bet. His efficiency hasn't been bad this year, but it hasn't been strong enough for him to pop in a part-time role. And at less than 100% health, that part-time role is likely to remain in place. Assuming he's a full-go, Stevenson is a high-end RB3 as a bet on his TD equity in this matchup.
For what might be the first time in the Maye era, I'm lower than consensus on the Patriots' passing game this week. I'm not worried about Maye being exposed or tanking the Patriots' offense. He's been consistently excellent, and the Falcons have a good defense but not an elite one. And I'm not panicking about Maye's fantasy value. His rushing ability has been a critical part of his fantasy profile, and he has potential for a nice day on the ground against a weak Falcons run defense.
However, I do think Maye's dropback volume could be more limited this week than usual, with the Patriots playing a run-funnel defense and likely benefiting from positive game script.
The Falcons' ability to get home with the blitz could also limit Maye's deep passing. When attacking downfield, Maye has been wildly efficient. He leads all QBs in EPA per play on 15+ yard attempts. And on 20+ yard attempts, his EPA per play is over 1.5x better than Sam Darnold, who ranks QB2.
But against the blitz, Maye has just a 6.5 aDOT. Only Jared Goff (6.4), Dillon Gabriel (5.7), Bo Nix (5.3), and Joe Flacco (5.1) have a lower aDOT on blitzed dropbacks. Of course, shallow throws don't equate to bad decisions. Maye ranks QB5 in EPA per blitzed dropback—he's doing what the team needs him to do. It's just that Maye's fantasy value is meaningfully tied to his ability to attack downfield, which the Falcons could successfully limit.
This setup is most concerning for Kayshon Boutte, who leads the Patriots with a 17.7 aDOT. With just a 14% TPRR, Boutte isn't seeing targets all that often. But when targeted, he's been crushing, demonstrating a strong deep-ball connection with Maye. If Maye's aDOT drops here, that'll hurt. Boutte also has just a 12% TPRR against the blitz this year.
Stefon Diggs is coming off his worst YPRR of the year, but in a game where the Patriots were clearly trying to get him involved. Thankfully, he did score a TD, somewhat salvaging his fantasy day with a 3/14/1 receiving line.
Diggs has been operating in tandem with Kayshon Boutte for most of the year. But after strong efforts against the Saints and Titans on limited route participation, Mack Hollins saw increased playing time against the Browns, and saw an elite 29% first-read target rate.
The flip side of this is that Demario Douglas has fallen to truly rotational usage.
When thinking about the fantasy value of Diggs and, to a lesser extent, Boutte, I'm not worried about Mack Hollins emerging as a target earner. Instead, I'm worried that Josh McDaniels sees value in spreading targets out and remaining unpredictable. Whether it's Hollins or Douglas or even Kyle Williams (but probably not), someone will probably draw targets as a third WR, keeping the target tree more spread out than ideal for fantasy purposes, especially with Diggs logging part-time route participation.
Diggs has a 25% TPRR against the blitz, matching his impressive season-long rate, and I expect him to have a solid target rate here. But with worries about overall passing volume and less exciting passing efficiency, Diggs is just a high-end WR3.
At tight end, Hunter Henry is coming off his least efficient game of the season, highlighting a downward trend in his underlying metrics.
However, Henry has a 24% TPRR on 67 blitzed dropbacks this year, with a team-leading 2.73 YPPR. His 9.0 aDOT is deep for a tight end, but it's a bit misleading. As you can see in his game log, Henry's aDOT has occasionally spiked. But more typically, he's been an underneath option. He could function as an outlet target here, and profiles as a low-end TE1 even with his downturn in production.
