2025 Legendary RB Scenarios

2025 Legendary RB Scenarios

Four years ago, I wrote an article on Rotoworld called Don't Draft an Early Round RB Without Legendary Upside.

Being new to the Rotoworld team, I wanted to impress. And so I built a time machine, traveling to December 2021 to see which RBs became fantasy legends. I continued time traveling in 2022, 2023, and 2024.

This year, I've traveled to December 2025 to find our legendary RBs.

What is a Legendary Season?

If you're new to the concept of legendary upside, here's the deal—RBs in the early rounds bust at high rates.

In my original research, I found that RB bust rates in the first two rounds were actually higher than in Rounds 3-6. This is despite RBs in Rounds 3-6 being such a drag on rosters that the range of the draft became the RB dead zone.

But the dead zone isn't where bust rates spike; it's where upside stops.

In the early rounds, bust rates are absolutely brutal... but there are also potentially league-winning players available.

And if we're going to risk losing our league with an early RB selection, the upside needs to be worth it.

With that goal in mind, I examined 36 RB seasons from 2000-2020 in which a running back hit 23+ PPR points per game, with 12+ games played. These seasons generated a profile to help us predict future legendary seasons.

Legendary RB Target Profile

  • A path to 4+ receptions per game.
  • A path to 2+ green-zone (inside the 10) opportunities per game.
  • Strongly prioritize versatile running backs with paths to high-volume receiving and goal-line roles.
  • A path to good, ideally elite, offensive line play.
  • A path to an efficient passing offense—unless the passing offense can run through the running back.
  • Be skeptical of running backs who entered the NFL below 210 pounds—unless the running back has a clear lock on goal-line duties.
  • Apply extra scrutiny to running backs 26 and older.
  • Excluding rare prospect profiles, remain very price-sensitive on rookies.
  • Prioritize second-year players and be skeptical in assuming significant role increases for non-second-year players.
  • Prioritize running backs who have flashed the elite talent required to deliver high-end efficiency.
  • Strongly prioritize running backs who have flashed elite receiving ability.

This profile sets a very high bar... but that's part of the point.

From 2000-2020, there were just 1.7 legendary RB seasons per year. And since writing the article, we've had only four legendary seasons—one per year.

In 2021, Jonathan Taylor barely qualified with 23 ppg from Weeks 1-17.

In 2022, Austin Ekeler averaged 23 ppg from Weeks 1-17 and concluded his legendary fantasy campaign with 32.1 points.

In 2023, Christian McCaffrey put up 24.6 PPR points per game and fell less than seven points short of his second 400+ point season. McCaffrey now has four legendary seasons on his resume.

In 2024, Saquon Barkley technically fell just short of a legendary season, with 21.9 PPR points per game. But because Barkley was a 2nd round pick for most of the summer—his ADP on Underdog averaged to 18.8—the effect was very much that of a legendary season. His 48.3% Underdog advance rate was significantly higher than McCaffrey's 36.2% the year before. Plus, Barkley won the Super Bowl. We're counting it. Barkley now has two legendary seasons to his name.

Silent Killers

Legendary seasons are rare and high-end seasons that are worth searching for. But it's not just RB injury risk that we're taking on when doing so. We're also at risk of landing on silent killers.

Last year, Breece Hall was our quintessential silent killer. He played in 16 games, but turned in just 14.9 points per game. Hall had just a 9.8% advance rate, just 61% of the expected rate.

Bijan Robinson and Austin Ekeler were good examples of this idea in 2023.

Robinson played 17 games but averaged just 14.7 PPR points per game. Because he went in the 1st round of drafts, his good-not-great production hurt rosters more than you might assume. His 10.3% Underdog advance rate was just 62% of the expected rate.

Austin Ekeler played 14 games in 2023, but his scoring dropped from 22.1 PPR points per game to 13.5. Like Robinson, he was a 1st round pick, leading to an 8.3% advance rate—exactly half the expected rate.

Keep in mind that Nick Chubb posted a 6.3% advance rate in 2023 despite playing just two games. Silent killers are killers.

2025 Legendary RB Scenarios

Below, I've outlined two futures for the 11 RBs going in the first two rounds of drafts. Then I discuss how I'm approaching each RB.

Bijan Robinson

Legendary Scenario

When Michael Penix takes the field against the Buccaneers in Week 1, it's immediately clear to the home crowd and everyone watching at home that he's ready. Penix isn't dominant. He's still functionally a rookie. There are growing pains.

But Penix keeps the offense moving, makes smart decisions, and keeps things competitive. This is absolutely huge for Bijan Robinson, who finally has stability at the QB position for a full season.

Even better, although Penix is good enough to keep drives alive, he's not yet to the point where the Falcons are comfortable building the offense around a pass-first approach. Instead, they use Robinson as the engine of the offense.

Granted, there are a few bumps in the road. The Falcons get boat-raced by the Commanders in Week 3, losing 36-9 at home. But Robinson still manages a non-disastrous 12.4 PPR points, catching four balls for 39 yards and rushing for 45 more. Better yet, it's his lowest point total of the entire season.

Robinson is a workhorse for the Falcons, carrying the ball 298 times and adding 77 receptions. It's a season that draws comparisons to peak Le'Veon Bell and Matt Forte. With 5.2 yards per carry, Robinson isn't the most efficient rusher in the league. He's not even in the elite tier. His receiving efficiency is the same, a strong but firmly sub-elite 1.37 YPRR.

But Robinson shows a rare ability to combine strong rushing and receiving efficiency and maintain both on elite volume.

Oh, and Robinson is a force of nature at the goal line. He totals 14 TDs on 41 green zone opportunities. When the Falcons are in close, Robinson is their first thought, and usually their second.

Robinson really begins to hit his stride when Falcons travel to New York in Week 13. Taking on a Jets team that is actually frisky, if inconsistent, the Falcons lean on Robinson in a back-and-forth game. Penix, too, has begun to see getting Robinson going as essential to his success and feeds the superstar RB with 10 targets. Robinson goes 8/72/1 through the air, signaling a stronger receiving role down the stretch.

The Falcons also begin opening up the offense a bit more as the season progresses. This actually creates fewer rushing attempts per game for Robinson, but his receiving versatility makes his slightly altered role in the offense even more valuable for fantasy.

By the time the Falcons host the Rams in Week 17, Robinson's status as a true three-down back has already been cemented. But he silences any remaining doubt with a 7/65/1 receiving line, on top of a 19/118/2 rushing line. He turns in a career-high 37.3 PPR points, successfully concluding his legendary third year.

All in all, Robinson totals 2,171 yards and 19 TDs on 298 attempts and 77 receptions. His 24 PPR points per game easily pay off his 1.02 ADP. In retrospect, no one can really articulate why Robinson wasn't the clear-cut 1.01.

Silent Killer Scenario

During the Falcons' Week 4 bye, Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson have a long meeting, putting their heads together on how to turn around a season that is already on the verge.

Underdogs in all four of their opening games, the Falcons are 1-3. They eked out a win in Carolina but lost in Minnesota and dropped home games to the Buccaneers and Commanders. On tap next... the Bills and 49ers.

The meeting goes well enough, but the next two weeks do not. Both the Bills and 49ers carve through the weak Atlanta defense, forcing Michael Penix to drop back frequently in obvious passing situations.

Bijan Robinson is getting fed, at least. The Falcons are determined not to expose Penix to opposing pass rushes in negative script. They're willing to sacrifice win percentage for the long-term plan.

Robinson averages 18 carries per game, setting a new career high with 306 carries. But Robinson's efficiency is a bummer. The Falcons are extremely predictable. They're going to run the ball for as long as they can get away with it, with the passing game very much a secondary option. Bizarrely, they don't incorporate fake runs, turning in the lowest play action rate in the league for the second straight year. What you see is what you get with the Falcons. Defensive coordinators lick their chops when they see the Falcons on the schedule.

Running behind a middling offensive line and into the teeth of the defense, Robinson drops from his career mark of 4.7 yards per carry to just 4.2.

In Week 8, the Falcons notch their second win of the season at home against Miami. This kicks off a seven-game winning streak, with wins over the Dolphins, Patriots, Colts, Panthers, Saints, Jets, and Seahawks.

The now 8-5 Falcons are one of the hottest teams in football. And Bijan Robinson is starting to come alive. He's now up to 270 touches for the season, with 1,229 yards from scrimmage and nine total TDs through 13 games. Averaging 16.6 PPR points per game, he's turned around a season that looked potentially disastrous in the early weeks. Robinson's playoff-bound fantasy managers are cautiously optimistic.

But the weekly preview industrial complex plants its flag—the Falcons are schedule merchants. Traveling to Tampa Bay in Week 15, they face their first real test since their blowout loss to the 49ers in Week 7. The matchup bros get it right this time; playing from behind for most of the game, the Falcons revert to their early-season form. Robinson is held to 72 scoreless yards on 16 touches.

Things don't get much better in Week 16. The Falcons lose a close game to the Cardinals, with Robinson seeing 22 touches and turning in 98 yards. He's held out of the end zone yet again.

In Week 17, the Rams take control of the game right away, limiting Robinson to 16 carries for 67 yards. Fortunately, he adds three receptions for 19 yards. But for the third straight week, fails to score.

With PPR scores of 9.1, 10.8, and 11.6 in Weeks 15-17, Robinson is a fantasy playoff albatross. And with 14.9 PPR points on the season, his RB1 ADP looks wildly optimistic in retrospect. James Conner, 55 picks cheaper in summer drafts, easily outscores him.

Robinson falls to the late 2nd round of The Big Board, which launches promptly at kickoff of Week 18 on New Year's Day.

This price quickly corrects as drafters regain confidence in Robinson's talent. It also helps that new head coach John Morton talks up Robinson as his new Jahmyr Gibbs, and promises to implement the same play action attack that brought Detroit its first Super Bowl.

How To Play It

In the futures above, Robinson actually sees more rushing attempts in his silent killer scenario. Even if he disappoints this year, he's still very likely to see an awesome workload.

But I have three big questions with Robinson:

  1. What does his receiving role look like?
  2. Can he deliver more explosive plays?
  3. Can the offense support an elite TD season?

On question 1, Robinson hasn't been all that impressive as a receiver in the NFL. As a rookie, he turned in 1.16 YPRR. Among RBs with 125+ carries, that was RB17. In 2024, he was slightly worse with 1.11 YPRR (RB17). In ESPN's receiver rating, he finished RB36 as a rookie, but improved to RB7 last year. Over the last two years combined, he ranks RB18. So, although I think Robinson isn't a bad receiver, it's hard to see him taking a huge step in receiving production this year, unless the Falcons pass the ball significantly more.

On question 2, Robinson was an impressive breakaway runner in college, but his superpower was tackle breaking. Since entering the NFL, he has a 20% breakaway percentage, which is pretty weak. He ranked RB20 as a rookie (25%) but then fell to RB30 of 36 qualifying RBs last year with a 17% mark. This is where running behind an elite line or being attached to an elite passing game would really help. I think Robinson could be more explosive in the right environment; I'm not sure this is that environment.

On question 3, Robinson turned in 15 total TDs last year, but he'll likely need closer to 20 to deliver a legendary season. This looks like a pretty big lift... unless Michael Penix is immediately an above-average starter.

In best ball, I've been breaking ties against Robinson at a decent rate, but I'm still at 5% so far (8% is even with the field), and I'm comfortable with that. That's the nice thing about a portfolio-based game like best ball. You never have to come out and say you're fading the RB1. You just say you're underweight.

But in redraft, we need to make decisions. If you're sitting at 1.02, are you taking Robinson, or are you not? There's no hedging.

And when it comes right down to it... Robinson is not my RB1 this year.

Not only that, I would also take both Ja'Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb ahead of him.

In TE Premium, I'd take Brock Bowers ahead of him (and I've put my money where my mouth on that to level that is probably inadvisable).

If Robinson were to fall to 1.05 in a PPR league, I would take him there; I'm not completely out. But, regrettably, I am going to be underweight—sorry—fading Robinson this year.

Managed League Recommendation: Fade.

Jahmyr Gibbs

Legendary Scenario

On November 2, the Lions host the Minnesota Vikings at Ford Field. It's the first of two meetings between the division rivals. The Lions are unfortunate not to have faced the Vikings earlier in the year, when J.J. McCarthy had some genuine growing pains. But the first-year starter has now emerged as a solid QB, clicking with an elite receiving corps and supported by a functional run game.

The good news is that the Lions have had two weeks to prepare for Brian Flores' blitz packages and are fresh off their Week 8 bye. Jahmyr Gibbs is essential to this plan, as a hot read outlet, screen-game weapon, and explosive rushing threat.

To this point in the season, Gibbs has been very impressive. He's a bigger piece of the average game plan than in 2024, and a consistent receiving threat. But he's yet to have a game that really puts a stamp on the 2025 season as being about Jahmyr Gibbs. In the first week of the back half of the season, it becomes very clear who the right answer was in summer drafts.

Gibbs rushes 19 times for 134 yards and two TDs, scoring once from two yards in and once from 30 yards out. He adds a 7/57/1 receiving line on nine targets.

The Lions win a 30-24 shootout, leaving the Vikings—and Gibbs' fantasy managers—eager for a rematch.

In the intervening weeks, Gibbs' fantasy season shifts from being a strong showing for a top pick to a truly rare campaign, even by league-winning standards.

The Lions' offensive line isn't quite as strong as it was in 2024, but it's still easily a top-10 unit. And Gibbs isn't a chunk-yardage thumper. When he gets the blocking he needs, he makes defenses pay. Like in 2024, when he posted 25 runs of 15+ yards—tying with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley despite seeing 75 fewer carries than Henry and 95 fewer than Barkley—Gibbs is extremely explosive. He rips off 27 breakaway runs, scoring eight of his 21 total TDs from outside the green zone. Gibbs is truly a scoring threat any time he touches the ball.

This includes Gibbs being a threat at the goal line. The Lions don't feature Gibbs in short yardage; Montgomery retains a significant role there. But Gibbs is reliable as well as explosive, and he splits goal line work on an extremely proficient offense. He punches in 11 rushing TDs from within the 10.

Gibbs' reliability as a runner translates directly to more receiving opportunities. John Morton tweaks the Lions offense, but he doesn't change the emphasis on play action. Like in 2024, the Lions lead the NFL in play action rate, utilizing it on over a third of their passes. Gibbs sees a much bigger chunk of these plays than in 2024, displacing Montgomery, who led the NFL in 2024 with 25 play action receptions.

Gibbs' ability to deliver on power run concepts allows the Lions to keep him on the field for fake versions of those plays. He scores two TDs on goal line play action passes and finishes RB1 with 28 play action receptions, the most by an RB since Austin Ekeler (28) in 2022.

Gibbs' receiving production is also boosted by more overall dropback volume. Under Morton, the Lions retain their philosophical DNA, but they operate more like the 2023 Lions (646 dropbacks) than the 2024 Lions (600 dropbacks). With Detroit dropping back 640 times, Gibbs is able to rack up 96 targets, for an 82/739/4 receiving line. He's also extremely efficient in the receiving game, with 1.78 YPRR. It's only a slight improvement on 2024's 1.69 mark, but still strong enough for RB1 in 2025.

Gibbs ends the season with 25.5 PPR points per game, the most by a RB since Christian McCaffrey (29.3) in 2019. He joins McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley, David Johnson, Le'Veon Bell, and Jamaal Charles as the only backs since 2010 to average 25+ PPR points.

And so, heading into the Lions Week 17 rematch with the Vikings, Gibbs is already seen as the story of the 2025 season, and the obvious 1.01 in 2026.

But that's not enough. Gibbs also steals Christmas.

The DFS discourse around the 3-game Christmas slate is dominated by helpful reminders that Gibbs will be playing in a dome. "I think I'm gonna eat the chalk here and use a contrarian stack to get different. So tough to see him failing in the dome."

And hey, sometimes the touts get it right. Because the roof overhead doesn't stop Gibbs from icing the Vikings' playoff hopes.

With 12 minutes left in the 2nd quarter, he runs off tackle to the ride side, hitting 22 MPH in the blink of an eye. The 57-yard TD puts the Lions up by 10.

Surprisingly, Gibbs doesn't dominate as a receiver. He records five receptions, in line with his 4.8 per game average, but totals just 25 scoreless yards. But in position to clinch their third straight NFC North title, the Lions don't mess around on the ground. Gibbs is the feature back for this one. He ties his career high with 26 rushing attempts for 195 yards and three TDs. His fantasy managers are gifted 45 PPR points (somehow not a career high) to kick off championship week. Merry Christmas.

Silent Killer Scenario

The Lions roll into Green Bay in Week 1 and hand the Packers a 20-17 loss. John Morton hands the fantasy community a Fell For It Again award with a heavy dose of David Montgomery in positive script. Do Montgomery and Gibbs play in the backfield together, as Morton teased in the spring? No once. It now starts to feel ominous that Morton has been comparing Gibbs to Saints-era Reggie Bush, who peaked at just 154 attempts.

Gibbs easily bests that, but with 238 attempts, he still posts 12 fewer than in 2024.

Morton's backfield deployment is frustrating, but that's the least of it. Ben Johnson took a lot of the Lions' magic with him to Chicago, with Detroit looking more vanilla and much less efficient under Morton.

In fairness to Morton, part of the issue lies with the Lions' offensive line, which takes a big step back from 2024. It's not bad, but far from a difference-making unit. Gibbs is able to hit 1,095 yards in 17 games, but is far less explosive, having to deal with defenders on him much more quickly than he's become accustomed to. He averages just 4.6 yards per carry, down from a 5.5 career mark.

Morton's offseason pressers weren't entirely misleading. He was dead serious about getting Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta more involved. Isaac TeSlaa also has a suprisingly high target share down the stretch. Morton is intent on attacking more downfield, which eats into Gibbs' underneath targets. After back-to-back seasons of 52 receptions, he falls to 44.

Gibbs' fantasy managers watch in disbelief as he's outscored by Jordan Mason in Week 17. Mason, now operating the Vikings starter, rushes 23 times for 113 yards and a score, with a 2/12 receiving line, for 20.5 PPR points. Gibbs also gets in the end zone for his 13th total TD on the season. But he sees just 12 carries for 55 yards, going 3/29/1 as a receiver. His 17.4 PPR points are nice to have, but not exactly a hammer at an early 1st round price tag.

For the season, Gibbs averages just 15.1 PPR points per game, matching James Cook.

How To Play It

Hypothetically, let's say you were the Lions' passing game coordinator for the last two seasons. You are as much an expert on the Lions' passing game as anyone, but it's not your offense. You don't create the game plans; you don't call the plays.

At least, you didn't.

But in 2025, you—new Lions offensive coordinator John Morton—are running the show.

If you, John, now have the chance to run the Lions offense, what tweaks would you make?

I, for one... would use Jahmyr Gibbs more.

Judging from his quotes this offseason, John seems to be on the same page.

In May, he compared Gibbs to Reggie Bush, praising his explosiveness, and he's floated ideas for getting Gibbs on the field more often.

What's crazy to me about the Gibbs discourse is that we kind of act like he didn't just average 21.4 PPR points last year. Saquon Barkley averaged 21.9. This dude was damn close to Barkley last season despite splitting work.

I don't know for sure if Gibbs is actually going to see significantly more work with Montgomery in the lineup. But I know that if he does, we don't need to stop dreaming at 23 points per game. We can dream on 24, 25, 26 points per game. This dude is a superstar. He's on a very efficient offense, runs behind a good offensive line, is already producing very close to a legendary level, and—everyone agrees!—has significant room to the upside in terms of his workload. The main disagreement is whether he can access that upside with Montgomery healthy, or if he's the fantasy's most expensive contingent RB.

Put me down as someone who thinks Montgomery can turn in the healthiest season of his entire freaking life and still see his workload curtailed significantly. Montgomery is a good back. But he's not Gibbs. And some of Montgomery's 2024 role, particularly his play action targets, are obvious opportunities to generate explosive plays with this one simple trick... put Gibbs on the field.

After the rushing performance that Gibbs turned in to close last season, there is simply no reason to continue using Montgomery at the same rate in traditional rushing situations. The only real reason to do that would be stubbornness. But Morton doesn't have to double down to protect his ego here. Not playing Gibbs enough can be Ben Johnson's dumb idea. Morton gets to unleash the superstar and take credit for the radical strategy of playing his running back. It's a no-brainer, and from everything I've gathered, Morton seems to have a brain.

In best ball, I've been mixing up my bets a bit at the top of drafts, but I've make a deal with myself—I am not going to end up underweight on Jahmyr Gibbs.

In redraft, he's a clear-cut target. We took him at 1.03 in our ADP Chasing Main Event.

Managed League Recommendation: Priority Target

Saquon Barkley

Legendary Scenario

The Eagles kick off the NFL season with a very on-brand performance against a Cowboys defense that isn't much better against the run than it was in 2024. Saquon Barkley rushes 18 times for 125 yards, adding one reception for nine yards.

It's an impressive real life performance, but not a great fantasy outing. Will Shipley mixes in for some low-value runs, keeping Barkley fresh. He also steals two receptions. More importantly, all the TDs flow through Jalen Hurts, who hits Dallas Goedert for a screen-pass TD, A.J. Brown for a 35-yard bomb, and brotherly shoves for two more scores.

The following week, the Eagles travel to Kansas City for the Super Bowl rematch. Saquon finds a defensive game plan waiting for him that can best be described as "anyone but Barkley." The Chiefs are also clicking on offense, with Rashee Rice still awaiting his hearing, and Xavier Worthy having fully evolved. The Chiefs get their (Week 2) revenge, winning 27-24 on a last-second field goal. Barkley is mostly stymied, rushing 21 times for 90 scoreless yards, with two receptions for 11 yards.

Bleary-eyed from blue light, spreadsheet virgins can't believe their eyes. Barkley's two-down profile is finally the limiting factor it was always destined to be! 2024 was just the exception that proves the rule; never wrong, just early.

Pre-Week 3 victory laps turn to ashes in streamer's mouths as Barkley gouges the Rams' vulnerable run defense for 200 rushing yards. It's 30 less than he averaged against them in 2024, but still pretty good. He also breaks his TD drought, running for a 37-yard TD in the first quarter, and closes out a victory with a 48-yard 4th-quarter clincher. Barkley turns in just a six-yard catch in the passing game, but for some reason, that's not the narrative headed into Week 4.

Receiving-driven concerns look even sillier as the season progresses, as new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo proves to be significantly more aggressive than Kellen Moore. Under Patullo, the Eagles drop back 590 times, roughly in between where they were in 2023 (653) and 2024 (540).

The added dropbacks help Barkley total a 46/399/3 through the air—a meaningful improvement on 2024's 33/278/2. Barkley isn't super consistent as a target earner, but he hits 5+ targets in six games. It's a reminder that as long as the Eagles pass the ball, a superstar RB who averaged 7.6 targets per game as a rookie... isn't just a two-down bet.

Barkley peaks with seven targets at the perfect time—a Week 17 shootout with the Bills. Saquon goes 6/53/1 as a receiver. Barkley also runs 29 times for 191 yards and, you're never going to believe this, but it's true, punches in a goal line TD. His 42.4 PPR points cement one of the best two-year runs in fantasy history.

It takes him 17 games instead of 16 this time, but Barkley turns in another 2,000-yard rushing campaign (2,006), totals 2,412 yards and 20 TDs from scrimmage. In hitting 23.9 PPR points per game, he bests his outstanding 2024 season (21.9) and falls just shy of his rookie year peak (24).

Somehow, not the 1.01 after a dominant 2024 season, Barkley makes the faders pay (again).

Silent Killer Scenario

Don't tell the Philadelphia Eagles that they are the defending Super Bowl champs. This is a new season, everyone is 0-0, nothing can be taken for granted, everything must be earned.

But... as much as they publicly say otherwise, the Eagles coaching staff understands the lofty expectations everyone has for this team. And those expectations are far less likely to be met without a healthy playoff run from Saquon Barkley.

Ahead of Week 1, Nick Sirianni and Kevin Patullo review an offensive game plan that is both built around the run but also with an understanding that they have a long season ahead of them. They need a big season from Saquon... but don't need him to average over 22 touches per game again.

Or at least... not every week. In their home opener against the Cowboys, the Eagles can't help themselves. Barkley carries the ball 21 times, pacing for more than the 345 carries he handled in 2024. Behind the Eagles' elite offensive line, he rushes for 115 yards and a TD, adding one catch for nine yards.

But as the season wears on, the Eagles find ways to pick their spots with Barkley. In two blowout wins over the Giants in Weeks 6 and 8, they play Will Shipley for much of the 2nd half. And Shipley is impressive enough that following their Week 9 bye, he begins to mix in more often. Originally just a means to keep Barkley fresh, Shipley begins to flash playmaking skills of his own, particularly as a receiver.

With Shipley eating into an already meager receiving workload, Barkley falls from averaging 2.1 receptions per game in 2024 to just 1.6. He finishes with just a 27/216/1 receving line on the season.

Barkley's lack of receptions wouldn't be an issue if he was still housing TDs from distance on a regular basis.

But after a 2024 regular season in which he scored 11 TDs from 10+ yards out, Barkley manages just four such scores in 2025. By normal RB standards... he still runs pretty hot here, just not as hot as the sun.

Barkley's ability to get in the end zone now rests far more on his goal line opportunities. But the Eagles aren't quite as dominant as they were in 2024, and the tush push is alive and well. His opportunities inside the 10 actually fall slightly from 2024. Barkley scores six green zone TDs, totaling 10 TDs on the season.

Thankfully, Barkley has one of his best games of the season in Week 16. As the Eagles fight for a division title, he turns 26 attempts into 156 yards and a TD, adding a 3/30 receiving line for 27.6 PPR points.

But the following week, the Eagles shift toward the passing game against the Bills, which by this point means using Will Shipley in a Justice Hill-style role. Barkley is efficient on his carries, but only sees 17 of them. He runs for 110 scoreless yards and fails to record a reception.

The Eagles' plan to keep Barkley fresh for the playoffs is only partially successful. He still totals 306 attempts in 2025, more than Bijan Robinson (304) and Josh Jacobs (301) saw in 17 games in 2024. But the Eeagles still shave off 45 touches from Barkley's 2024 workload, while playing him for one more game.

After single-handedly winning leagues in 2024, Barkley barely outscores Chuba Hubbard in 2025, averaging 14.8 PPR points per game.

How To Play It

Saquon Barkley opened the summer as the 1.02 in best ball leagues. He's since fallen a bit. And in the Main Event, he's down to 1.06, behind Ja'Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, and Brock Bowers (TE Premium). At this new price, it's much harder to make the case against him.

Let me try, though. Barkley was crazy reliant on big plays last year. I love efficient—also known as good—players, but at a certain point, negative regression becomes a concern. Barkley scored 18 rushing TDs last season, including the playoffs. So far, so good. But 12 of those TDs, two-thirds, were from 10+ yards out. 10-of-18 were from 20+ yards out.

Including the playoffs, how many rushing TDs do you think Saquon Barkley scored from 60+ yards out last year?

Did you say seven? Because it was seven.

Normally, we might say something like. "Well, yea, ok, but so what because if he gets tackled on the 1 a couple more times, he's still gonna punch in that TD." Except... that's not really true here, is it? Jalen Hurts rushed for 19 rushing TDs. 14 were within five yards of the goal line. 17 were within 10 yards. The tush push is a real problem for Barkley's TD production going forward, unless he continues to play out of his freaking mind.

But honestly, it's hard not to feel like that is what is going to happen.

The biggest thing I got wrong about Barkley last year is that I doubted his talent. I knew he had been elite, but at 27 years old, was he really elite anymore? (Yea buddy, he's elite). Barkley has now thoroughly proven that he remains in his prime, and is behind literally the best offensive line in the league. He's also attached to a passing game that is not only efficient but explosive. It's a passing game perfectly suited to punish defenses for paying too much attention to Barkley. The Eagles put teams in a no-win situation.

Honestly, I kind of wish Barkley was still going 1.02. Then I could be a real hardo about this and say he's a great player, but sadly, just too expensive. We simply must fade the guy who ate our lunch last year.

And in best ball, that really is how I was playing it (to an extent). I'm currently at 5% Barkley, because I've been prioritizing the two RBs and Lamb ahead of him.

But once Chase, Robinson, Lamb, and Gibbs are off the board, we're talking about players with at least a little bit of concern.

I do slightly prefer Justin Jefferson. Always nice to draft the best WR in football. But Jefferson is playing with a first-time starter at QB and has been dealing with a hamstring injury. I think it'll all work out, but he's not bulletproof this year.

And then the next RB off the board after Barkley literally missed almost all of last year with multiple leg injuries.

But we can't take the defending rushing champ because he scores from too far away?

There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.

Managed League Recommendation: Capitulate at 1.05 or later.

Christian McCaffrey

Legendary Scenario

After years of promising to ease back on Christian McCaffrey's workload, Kyle Shanahan was forced to operate entirely without McCaffrey for most of 2024. It was a lost season for the 49ers and a lesson that Shanahan took to heart.

The lesson of course, is that McCaffrey is too critical to risk tasking with huge workloads.

The 49ers' trade for Brian Robinson wasn't just a depth move. Shanahan has finally gotten serious about reducing McCaffrey's workload and keeping him fresh.

Just kidding.

Shanahan pretends to have changed his ways for a couple weeks, but his heart isn't in it. Because Shanahan's actual takeaway from 2024 is that he is a lot happier when Christian McCaffrey is on the field. Wondering if he'll even be alive by the time a McCaffrey injury occurs, Shanahan decides to live for the moment. McCaffrey finishes with 21.1 touches per game, virtually identical to 2023 (21.2).

As field goal road favorites in Week 1, the 49ers beat the Seahawks 24-16, and then, as big road favorites, dominate in New Orleans 34-13. McCaffrey totals four TDs on the road trip.

Following this start, the 49ers are a favorite in every single game in the 2025 season. They are ultimately favored by 6+ in half of their regular-season games.

This creates a ton of positive game script for McCaffrey, who totals 21 TDs for the second time in three seasons, rushing for 15 and putting up six more through the air.

But McCaffrey's role does shift slightly in 2025 compared to 2023. With Deebo Samuel no longer available as a weapon out of the backfield and Brandon Aiyuk taking a while to ramp back up, Shanahan is keen to utilize McCaffrey as a receiver even more than two years ago.

McCaffrey is also helped by a career year from Brock Purdy. Purdy marries 2023's efficiency with 2024's playmaking ability and emerges as a QB that deserves to be featured, even in positive game script. As a result, the 49ers drop back 580 times, 26 more times than in 2023 (though still 45 fewer than in 2024).

McCaffrey is more of a receiving priority on a team with more dropbacks than 2023... which means more targets for the superstar RB. For the fifth time in his career, McCaffrey sees 100+ targets. He finishes with an 87/714/6 receiving line on 102 targets.

In Week 17, he caps a glorious return to form with a dominant outing in front of the home crowd, turning in an 18/111/3 rushing line with six for 50 through the air.

As McCaffrey punches in his third TD of the day on a beautifully executed inside zone run, Ben Johnson—literally down 23—looks directly at D'Andre Swift. You can see the pain in his eyes from space. The Bears then hand off three times to Kyle Monangai before punting.

With 24.7 PPR points per game, McCaffrey sets a new 49ers career high and turns in his fifth legendary season.

Ironically, despite a league-winning season driven by elite receiving production, McCaffrey's 1.54 YPRR is the second lowest of his career.

This becomes a talking point in the 2026 offseason as hand-wringing weenies wonder aloud if the greatest fantasy RB of all time is too risky for the 1.01.

His 2025 fantasy managers have no such doubts; McCaffrey is a legend.

Silent Killer Scenario

Kyle Shanahan hasn't changed. If you give him a superstar RB, he's going to play the hell out of him.

The problem is... Christian McCaffrey has changed. McCaffrey remains a remarkably effective receiver out of the backfield, but as a runner, he's clearly lost of step after missing most of the 2024 season to injury.

Averaging just 4.1 yards per carry through the first three weeks, McCaffrey is expected to find his footing in Week 4 against Jacksonville. But on a healthy workload of 18 carries, he manages just 63 scoreless yards. He saves his fantasy day with a 3/25/1 receiving line.

As the season progresses, McCaffrey begins to pop up on the injury report with limited practices. It's nothing big, just the wear and tear of the season. But Shanahan still suffers flashbacks to 2024.

Brian Robinson begins to mix in more to keep McCaffrey fresh. Robinson isn't any more explosive than McCaffrey, but he helps ensure that McCaffrey's efficiency doesn't fall off further. Isaac Guerendo also sees the occasional series, providing a little juice to the running game.

As a receiver, McCaffrey is still solidly efficient. He's not the otherworldly receiving back he once was, but still turns in a respectable 1.23 YPRR, ranking RB12.

But the 49ers just... don't need to pass that much in 2025. Their absurdly easy schedule sees them favored by double digits against the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Browns, and Titans. They are an underdog just once all season and at just +1 on the road in Tampa Bay.

McCaffrey takes advantage of his receiving opportunities when he gets them, but he turns in a sub-elite 58/481/2 receiving line.

The 49ers' Week 17 game against the Bears sums up McCaffrey's disappointing season. Caleb Williams—still searching for his first game with a 70%+ completion percentage—can't keep the Bears on pace with the 49ers, and Shanahan is able to salt away the game without burning out McCaffrey, who is very much being saved for the playoffs by this point.

McCaffey rushes 12 times for 50 yards, with three receptions for 21 yards, and zero TDs.

He manages 15.6 PPR points per game for the full season, matching TreVeyon Henderson. But unlike Henderson, who opens 2026 drafts as a late 1st-rounder, McCaffrey is no longer a 1st-round fantasy pick.

The best ball slappies can't be bothered with him until Round 6, although he eventually moves into the 4th by August.

How To Play It

For most of the offseason, I've been thinking about McCaffrey as a fairly binary bet. He's either dust, washed, a landmine, a bust, or... he's Christian McCaffrey, the greatest PPR back we've ever known.

But reality is never that simple. There's definitely some risk that McCaffery is still pretty damn good, but just not to the level he was in 2023, where the 49ers were justified in never taking him off the field. With even a slight step back, that attitude could change. McCaffrey could go from snap dominant to a normal starter, and at his cost, from a legend to a silent killer.

But even as I see that risk more clearly. I'm happy to take it on.

Even at 29 years old, McCaffrey checks a ton of boxes in the legendary RB profile. As disappointing as he was as a runner last year, he still saw 15 receptions in three and a half games. He averaged a reception every 3.8 snaps... an 86 reception pace using his 2023 regular season snap count. It's a small sample and not someting to take a ton from, but I think it's fair to say that McCaffrey's role in the offense would have remained very receiving-focused, had he been healthy enough to play last year. McCaffrey also turned in 1.60 YPRR last year. Small sample, but again, nothing concerning on the receiving front.

So the big questions are:

  1. Can McCaffrey recapture his rushing form after averaging just 4.0 yards per carry last year?
  2. Can the 49ers support another 20+ TD season like we saw in 2023?

Let's take the second question first—yes.

The 49ers have by far the easiest schedule in the league, one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league, and no longer have Deebo Samuel as a hybrid weapon. Their offensive line is middling, and it's possible the offense struggles a bit with Brandon Aiyuk out. But man, this is still a strong setup for McCaffrey to be the clear-cut green zone weapon on an offense that should put up a lot of points.

Now to question 1... and I'm not sure I care anymore. We're talking about an RB who has a clear path to 4+ receptions per game, who can easily hit 2+ green zone touches per game, and who will have a strong (if not elite) rushing workload when healthy. We're talking about an RB—and I don't say this lightly—who can scam his way to a legendary season.

And honestly, I don't think that's the world we're in. Reports out of camp have been glowing. And if McCaffrey really is back, he remains the best bet for a legendary campaign.

Managed League Recommendation: Target.

Ashton Jeanty

Legendary Scenario

The Raiders open up the 2025 season with just a 6.5 Vegas win total. Facing the Patriots in Week 1—arguably the worst team in the league in 2024—the Raiders are a 3-point road underdog. But Pete Carroll has his team fired up to compete.

Providing color commentary for the Giants at Commanders, Tom Brady must have been too distracted by updates on his Raiders' upset win over his old team to say a single interesting thing on air. At least, that's what the FOX execs tell themselves.

The Raiders then harrass Justin Herbert in a low-scoring home loss to the Chargers. Jeanty is held to 75 total yards, but saves his day with a rushing TD.

However, in Week 3, the Raiders are shockingly frisky against Washington. And it's during this close loss that Ashton Jeanty's fantasy managers start to realize what they have. Like in 2024, the Commanders are susceptible to the run game. And the Raiders lean on Jeanty, who has already established himself as the clear lead rusher. The rookie rushes 22 times for 132 yards and two TDs—punching in a 3-yard score and housing another from 31 yards out.

But most promisingly, as the Raiders trail in the 2nd half, Jeanty becomes heavily involved as a receiver. It's the first time the Raiders have shown off his receiving skills in a major way. He sees seven targets, totaling six receptions for 40 yards.

The Raiders then rip off three consecutive wins against the Bears, Colts, and Titans. By beating Tennessee, the Raiders make good on Bill Simmons' declaration the previous week—they are 2025's good bad team.

At this point, Jeanty is starting to emerge as a dominant rushing force. He's averaging 5.4 yards per carry, combining unbelievable contact balance and instant acceleration. He already has three rushing TDs from outside the 10-yard line, while also operating as the Raiders' clear-cut goal line back.

Still, outside of his breakout game against the Commanders, Jeanty's receiving production hasn't been great. He's involved, it's just not driving his production.

Coming out of the Raiders' Week 8 bye, that changes. Against the Jaguars, Broncos, and Cowboys, Jeanty averages seven targets for six receptions and 49 yards. Against Jacksonville, he also gets in the end zone.

Jeanty can still transform into a rushing sledgehammer when needed. In Week 12, he delights the home crowd by putting up 204 rushing yards against the hapless Browns, including a 43-yard scamper for a TD. Jeanty keeps fans in the seats for as long as humanly possible. But by the mid-4th quarter, Dillon Gabriel has emptied the stands.

There are bumps in the road.

The Week 14 rematch against Denver does not go well, with Jeanty totaling just 9.3 PPR points. Fantasy managers are understandably nervous about his next matchup against the Eagles, with the fantasy playoffs kicking off.

Jeanty doesn't crush against Philadelphia, but he does get back on track, with 112 rushing yards and a score, plus a 4/29 receiving line.

But the real money is made in Week 17.

Back in Las Vegas after a two-game road trip, Jeanty reminds the Giants that the house always wins. He runs for 137 yards, including a 27-yard TD. It's his sixth rushing TD of the year from 10+ yards out. Jeanty also sees a season high nine targets, posting eight receptions for 60 yards, including a 16-yard TD reception, his fourth receiving TD of the year. Jeanty's 39.7 PPR points are a fitting end to the best rookie RB season since Saquon Barkley.

In total, Jeanty rushes 272 times for 1,496 yards and 17 TDs. It's a wildly impressive rushing debut. But what makes his season legendary is that, like he was as a sophomore at Boise State, he's also a weapon out of the backfield. He finishes RB5 with 61 receptions, turning in 540 receiving yards and four TDs. With 1.30 YPRR, Jeanty isn't even that efficient. His value is more in being a trusted check down when Bowers is double covered and the Raiders' outside WRs can't get open quickly... which happens a lot.

Jeanty's potential to take another step forward as a receiver drives 2026 hype to outrageous levels. Superflex dynasty managers begin offering obscene packages—Joe Burrow and a 2026 1st isn't unheard of—for the superstar RB. Auction redraft leaguers brag about only "only" spending $81 of a $200 budget for the 2nd-year phenom. When Jeanty falls past 1.01 in BBM7, Underdog throws out the draft. It's a heady time, and sure, we may have gotten over our skis heading into 2026, but the hype is genuinely hard to resist. You'll see once you get here.

Silent Killer Scenario

Ashton Jeanty's debut against the Patriots is extremely efficient. He averages 7.2 yards per carry, rips off a 22-yard TD run in the second quarter, and averages 7.5 yards per target.

Unfortunately, Jeanty only sees 12 carries and two targets. Still, 101 total yards and a TD isn't bad for an NFL debut. Jeanty's fantasy managers bank his 18.1 PPR points and eagerly await even better results.

It's a long wait.

Jeanty's 12 carries in Week 1 aren't a rookie being eased in—it's his 2025 season average. Jeanty handles just 204 carries in 2025, only 10 fewer than Bijan Robinson in his 17-game rookie season, but still far below what his fantasy managers had in mind.

Part of the problem is that the Raiders just aren't very good. Frequently in negative game script, they're rarely in position to establish Jeanty as a downhill runner.

As a receiver, the Raiders slow play the rookie, turning to Dylan Laube in pure passing situations. The Taekcast's gain is our loss. Jeanty is limited to a 38/281/1 receiving with just 0.93 YPRR.

Jeanty is more efficient as a runner, where, despite playing behind a weak offensive line, he averages 4.9 yards per carry. At the end of the season, the Raiders finally feed him, giving him 20 carries, which he turns into 92 yards. But, this is too late to matter for fantasy... occurring in Week 18, and primarily to help Jeanty hit a 1,000-yard season. He hits exactly 1,000 yards, finishing his season with two two-yard carry. It's a fittingly uninspiring end to a rookie season that isn't bad by normal standards, but is crushing compared to the fantasy community's outsized expectations.

Jeanty averages just 11.6 PPR points per game, behind Omarion Hampton and R.J. Harvey. He does at least outscore TreVeyon Henderson (10.9), who spends most of the year pigeon-holed in the James White role. But this actually compounds the pain for the slappy drafters who thought pairing these rookies was the key to the season.

How To Play It

Ashton Jeanty was an incredible running back prospect. Everyone knows that. But I don't know if people realize just how good a receiving prospect he was. In 2024, he averaged just 1.6 receptions per game with a poor 0.54 YPRR. I've seen that held up as evidence that Jeanty is actually a bad receiving prospect. Here's the thing, though... Jeanty handled 27 attempts per game that year. 27! He wasn't used in the receiving game, but not because he can't do it; there's just only so much you can feed a guy.

In 2023, Jeanty was in a different role. He averaged 18 carries per game and a very healthy 3.7 receptions per game. And Jeanty was extremely efficient in this role, turning in 3.19 YPRR.

You want to use Jeanty as a two-down hammer? He'll do that well. You want to use him as a versatile weapon? He'll do that well, too.

The question now is how the Raiders intend to deploy the rookie. Given that we play a game that rewards receptions, it would be really nice if they're a fan of the 2023 tape.

We don't need the Raiders to go nuts with his receiving volume. They don't need to use Jeanty like the Dolphins used De'Von Achane last year. Something closer to Breece Hall's career receiving usage would be plenty; something like 65 receptions rather than 75+.

And then... we need Ashton Jeanty to be the truth.

But the Raiders are clearly banking on him to be exactly that. I didn't mention Dylan Laube as a joke. Well, not entirely as a joke. He's expected to make the final 53. Meanwhile, Raheem Mostert appears to be on the bubble. Jeanty's rushing competition looks to be Zamir White. And Laube really might be his 3rd-down competition. What that really means is that Jeanty could be the whole show in Vegas.

Saquon Barkley is the only rookie RB to turn in a legendary season, and he got there with 121 targets, a level of receiving volume that Jeanty is not going to match. But like Barkley as a rookie, Jeanty appears set to immediately operate as a workhorse running back and has a comparable receiving profile. He won't see as many targets as Barkley did, but should be efficient with what he gets.

In best ball, Jeanty has been a target for me. But this is because he goes after the big WR tier of Malik Nabers, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brian Thomas, and Puka Nacua. But in the FFPC Main Event, he's going ahead of all of those WRs (listed in order of current ADP).

That is a pretty massive difference in opportunity cost, even though we're only talking about a 5-pick gap between where I'm happy to take him vs. where I'm completely out.

But that's the way it goes this high up in the draft. If my opportunity cost is Malik Nabers, no thanks. If my opportunity cost is Drake London, though, give me the rookie.

Managed League Recommendation: If the WRs are gone, Live a little.

Derrick Henry

Legendary Scenario

The Ravens' 2025 season begins just as everyone expects. Their defense remains elite, Lamar Jackson continues delivering at an MVP level, and Derrick Henry punishes defenses for overly diverting their attention to Jackson. It's a no-win situation for opposing defenses.

Over the first six weeks of the season, Derrick Henry has two highlight games, turning in a 23/143/2 rushing line against the Browns and a vintage performance against the Houston Texans with a 29/177/2 rushing line. In both games he logs two receptions, with 26 yards against Cleveland and 15 against Houston.

Henry's faders can't seem to recall why they couldn't bring themselves to draft a RB capable of dropping two 30+ PPR point games in the first six weeks. But the faders get some relief in Week 7—the Ravens have their bye week. It's a short reprieve. In Week 8, Henry drops a 24/140/1 rushing line on the Panthers, adding one reception for 23 yards.

The season is a microcosm of Henry's entire career. The unbelievers wait in vain for Henry to finally slow down; he just never does.

In Week 17, the Ravens travel to Green Bay. The temperature at kickoff is 22° Fahrenheit. As Henry lines up in the backfield for the Ravens' first offensive snap, he's already carried the ball 310 times for the 2025 Ravens, rushing for 1,805 yards and 17 TDs. And he's already added 27 receptions for 262 yards and two TDs. Even before touching the ball a single time in Green Bay, Henry has already secured the third-highest rushing total of his career, his third season with 2,000+ total yards, and the most total TDs of any season in his spectacular 10-year career.

But Henry isn't done yet.

On the very first play from scrimmage, Henry gashes the Packers' defense for 33 yards. Lamar Jackson caps off the Ravens' initial drive with a 13-yard TD pass to Isaiah Likely. The Ravens never surrender the lead.

Operating as the Ravens' early down hammer, Henry racks up 26 carries for 172 rushing yards and two TDs. He adds three receptions for 25 yards. His 33.7 PPR points are the exclamation point on a lesson that some just cannot seem to learn—don't fade the big dog!

But in 2025, that lesson is especially painful, as Henry sets career highs in rushing yards (2,071), rushing TDs (19), and nearly bests his career high in receptions (33) with 31. Somehow, his 388 touches are not a new career high; he saw 397 in 16 games in 2020. But it's still an unbelievable feat for one of the best runners in NFL history.

Silent Killer Scenario

The 2025 season has some great games, but none better than the Ravens' Week 13 battle with the Bengals.

Joe Burrow is the only QB to truly carve up the Ravens' pass defense all season, throwing for 345 yards and three scores. In the 2nd quarter, he hits Ja'Marr Chase 10 yards deep along the sideline. Chase spins in the air to secure the catch, with his momentum clearly—by all known laws of physics—taking him out of bounds. But not only does he get his feet in, he cuts back into the field of play. With Nate Wiggins stumbling through Bengals players on the sideline, Chase goes 47 yards for the score. To avoid being inundated with the clip on Twitter, you have to mute the 👀emoji.

The Ravens, meanwhile, lean on a balanced attack. Lamar Jackson has one of his best games of the season, throwing for 305 yards and two TDs, adding 53 yards and a TD as a runner. But the running game is a crucial part of the attack as well.

The Ravens' backfield combines for 144 rushing yards, bringing the Ravens to 502 yards of total offense.

Derrick Henry, however, has a modest fantasy day. He turns 17 carries into 95 rushing yards and a TD. But he fails to record a reception. His 15.5 PRR points are a big letdown given an otherwise incredible game.

Henry's lack of a receiving role is a big part of the problem. As the Ravens make their way down the field for what will become a final-second Lamar Jackson TD flick to DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone, Henry isn't even on the field. This is a consistent problem throughout the season.

Like in 2024 (including the playoffs), Henry fails to record a reception in 37% of his games—meaning, he goes catchless in 6-of-17 regular-season games in 2025. And he peaks with just two receptions (which he hits twice). His 13 receptions are his lowest mark since 2017, but only six fewer than he saw in 2024.

Even worse, Henry doesn't have a total lock on carries. After averaging 19 carries per game in 2024, Henry drops to 16.5 in 2025. With Henry turning 32 before the 2025-26 playoffs, it makes a ton of sense for the Ravens not to overuse their star runner. But... this isn't the Ravens being prudent.

As the season progresses, Keaton Mitchell continues to deliver the game-breaking explosiveness he flashed as a rookie. Mitchell earns a rotational role behind Henry, siphoning off 6.0 carries per game, exactly what Tony Pollard averaged behind Ezekiel Elliott in his first two seasons. Mitchell averages 5.5 yards per carry.

Henry's efficiency falls off from 2025's career-high 5.9 ypc to his career average of 4.9. Playing next to Lamar Jackson definitely helps... but Henry is just a touch less explosive in his 10th NFL season.

In Week 17, the Ravens travel to Green Bay in a game that turns into a battle of running games. Henry grinds out 91 yards and a TD on 19 carries, but doesn't record a catch. His 15.6 PPR points aren't a terrible showing, but they aren't enough to make up for a season where he averages just 13.3 PPR points per game.

For fantasy managers, the especially frustrating thing is that Henry has a very good real-life season. He rushes 281 times for 1,374 yards and 11 TDs. It's the seventh 1,000-yard season of his 10-year career, and his eighth straight season with 10+ rushing TDs.

But with just a 13/104/0 receiving line, even in half-PRR, Henry's production just isn't fantasy-friendly enough for what he cost in drafts.

In 2026, a new best ball site called "KingDog" launches. Started by a mysterious figure known only as "Tree," the Tennessee-based company's scoring settings include 0.5 points per carry.

How To Play It

Some people just never learn.

It's me.

I'm some people.

Look, I faded Henry last year, and that was dead wrong. I also faded Barkley, which was dead wrong. But I feel worse about the Henry fade... because he was actually cheap. By the end of the summer, Barkley was making his way into the 1st round. Henry was still in the 3rd. And in best ball drafts earlier in the summer, he was slipping to Round 4. At that price, I didn't need legendary upside for the pick to pay off—the opportunity cost at WR just wasn't that high.

But as I'm writing this, Henry has the same Main Event ADP as Puka Nacua. The opportunity cost is very high. And his upside case boils down to: last year but better.

To get more specific, Henry's upside case boils down to... Derrick Henry sets career highs in basically everything, on a team with Super Bowl aspirations that should be smart enough not to give their star RB nearly 400 regular-season touches right before his 32nd birthday. That's how he turns in his first legendary season.

Because we're talking about Derrick Henry, the outlier king, it'll probably happen.

Managed League Recommendation: Fade

Chase Brown

Legendary Scenario

Early in 2025, the Bengals look like they did to close 2024. Burrow is playing great, but has too much on his shoulders, attached to a defense that still can't stop opposing offenses. Burrow is also harassed behind an offensive line that has frequent letdowns. Burrow has to fight through minor injuries, offensive inconsistency, and deal with frustrating one-score losses to the Jaguars and Steelers. But, he's still Joe Burrow. The offense puts up points in bunches.

Chase Brown is mostly along for the ride. He's the clear-cut early down workhorse, although he loses work to Samaje Perine in obvious passing situations. He's not the snap-dominant player he was at times in 2024, but he sees plenty of work.

Perine's impact is pretty minimal, even in the passing game. With the Bengals dropping back frequently, there's plenty of early down targets available for Brown. He averages 6.4 targets per game through the first nine weeks of the season, a significant increase from the 4.75 he averaged in the final eight games of 2024.

Brown's receiving work drives a lot of his value in the early weeks. He goes for a 13-yard TD on a screen pass against the Jaguars, scores on a 22-yard wheel route against the Lions, and adds a 6-yard TD catch against the Bears.

But Brown is hardly a zero as a runner. For one thing, he's more efficient. After averaging just 4.3 yards per carry in 2024 and 4.2 for his two-year career, Brown jumps to 4.8 yards per carry in 2025. And he's frequently in scoring position as part of the Bengals' high-flying attack. Through the first nine weeks of the year, he rushes for four TDs, totaling seven from scrimmage.

When the Bengals emerge from their Week 10 bye, they tweak their approach. Burrow drops back just 31 times against the Steelers, in a 17-16 win. This is initially chalked up to being a divisional rematch against an Arthur Smith / Aaron Rodgers-led offense. How could anyone expect passing volume?

But the Bengals maintain a similar style in Week 11 against the Patriots. And, once again, it proves to be a winning approach. Not only do the Bengals control the clock in the 4th quarter, salting away a 23-17 win, but their defense puts Drake Maye under constant pressure, generating three turnovers. At the time, this is chalked up to the Patriots' truly abysmal offensive line—Will Campbell is a genuine liability in pass protection, and Morgan Moses has been out for six weeks by this point. But that's only part of the story. The Bengals' defense is beginning to gel.

It's not like the Bengals are a grind-it-out rushing team for the rest of the year. They put up 40 in a Week 14 win over the Bills. But Cincinnati is definitely way more comfortable leaning on the run game and trusting their defense than they were in 2024.

This is huge for Chase Brown, who jumps from 15 attempts per game in the Bengals' first nine games to 19 per game down the stretch—just above the 18.9 attempts per game that he closed out 2024 with.

Brown scores from 27 yards out against the Bills in Week 14, but he does the rest of his damage in close. Because while Brown may not be the most efficient runner in the league, he is an absolute hammer at the goal line. From Weeks 10-16, he rushes for seven green zone TDs.

Through 16 weeks, Brown has already totaled 15 TDs, the most of any RB.

In Week 17, the Bengals host the Cardinals. The two franchises' situations are dramatically different. The Bengals are fighting for a division win, having split with the Ravens in Weeks 13 and 15. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are preparing for a full reset. The relationship between Jonathan Gannon and Kyler Murray broke down after a multi-score home loss to the Jaguars. And the relationship between Gannon and Michael Bidwill broke down shortly thereafter, following a home loss to the Rams in Week 14, their sixth straight loss.

So when the Cardinals come to town, the Bengals are facing a Jacoby Brissett-led squad, with Kyler Murray on ice, awaiting an offseason trade.

The Bengals dominate from start to finish. Although, ironically, the goal line dominant RB's only rushing score of the day is on a 34-yard dash in the third quarter. But Brown's reputation as a short-yardage hammer still helps, as he catches not one, but two TDs on play action passes at the goal line.

With 21 carries for 124 yards and a TD and a 4/21/2 receiving line on four targets, Brown seals fantasy championships with 36.5 PPR points.

In total, he rushes 289 times for 1,387 yards and 13 TDs, with an 80/658/5 receiving line on 94 targets, good for a truly legendary season of 23.1 PPR points per game. Bengals fans begin calling him Shiesty Brown.

Silent Killer Scenario

In Week 1, the Bengals open the season as -5.5 road favorites over the Browns. As you would expect, they control the game. But for Chase Brown drafters, how they control the game is a bit disconcerting.

The Bengals aggressively pass the ball throughout the first half, using a mix of quick passes and downfield throws to consistently move the chains. It's not like Brown isn't involved; he sees nine carries turning in 37 yards. He also logs two receptions for 16 yards. But the Bengals don't lean on Brown near the goal line, choosing instead to keep the ball in Burrow's hands. And with the Bengals closing out the first half with a two-minute drill field goal drive, Samaje Perine is in the backfield.

With the Bengals up two scores in the second half, Brown finally gets going, seeing 10 carries for 40 yards and a TD. All in all, it's a 17.3 PPR point day—not a bad debut. But Brown drafters can't get the image of Tahj Brooks entering the game in the 4th quarter out of their mind. Brooks rushes four times for 18 yards.

As the season progresses, it quickly becomes clear that Perine is going to be a thorn in Brown's side in the passing game. Brown, who saw 66% route participation down the stretch in 2024, drops to just 55%. That's still better than his 50% full-season 2024 mark—and higher than any of Joe Mixon's seasons from 2020-2023. But this more limited route participation is a sign that Brown isn't the three-down workhorse drafters were hoping.

Brown isn't a zero as a receiver, but after producing a 54/360/4 receiving line in 2024, he drops to 47/359/1 in 2025.

Brown still sees plenty of carries. With 264 attempts, he finishes RB5 on the year. But after pacing for 321 carries in his final eight games of 2024, it's still a bit of a letdown.

Like in 2024, Brown sees a solid amount of goal line work, but not an elite workload. He rushes for seven rushing TDs, matching his 2024 total.

In terms of rushing efficiency, the status quo holds. But... this is the one element of the rushing game that Brown drafters were hoping would change. Brown, who averaged just 4.3 yards per carry in 2024, turns 264 carries into 1,133 yards.

And by the time that the Bengals take on the Cardinals in Week 17, Tahj Brooks has proven worthy of mixing in more regularly. He's still there to keep Brown fresh, rather than challenging for the job. But in a 26-23 win, Brown turns in just 13 carries for 57 scoreless yards, adding 3/25 as a receiver, for 11.2 PPR points.

For the season, Brown averages 14.4 PPR points per game. Despite being the starting RB on one of the best offenses in football, his scoring average is matched by David Montgomery, playing second fiddle to Jahmyr Gibbs.

How To Play It

In some ways, Brown is a pretty simple bet. You can point to the end of last season, and what if we get that for the whole year?

Over his final eight games last year, Brown averaged 20.75 points per game. While that's technically not a legendary pace... it would still be an absolute smash in the mid 2nd round.

Encouragingly, Brown achieved this with 4.75 receptions per game. He was also on a 13-TD pace... which leaves room to the upside.

But it's important to consider how Brown achieved these numbers. He was literally the only back seeing the field in Cincinnati. From Weeks 9 - 17, he averaged an 85% snap share and an 88% carry share. Last year, only Kyren Williams (87%) bested an 85% snap share, and Jonathan Taylor finished RB2 at just 80%. Taylor finished RB1 in carry share at just 77%.

Realistically, Brown is not going to completely dominate the Bengals' backfield like he did last year. We might not see a ton of Tahj Brooks or Samaje Perine, but we're going to see more of them than we saw Zack Moss down the stretch last year.

This means we need Brown to bring more efficiency to the table than he did last year.

Brown was definitely solidly efficient. He finished RB20 with 67 RYOE, RB21 with a 24% breakaway percentage, RB17 with a 63 elusive rating, RB20 with 1.06 YPRR, and RB31 in receiver rating. Basically, he was Kyren Williams with more juice. But even compared to someone like James Conner (RB14, RB11, RB6, RB5, and RB11), Chase was pretty lacking.

If Chase gets the Kyren Williams role again, wheels up. But the Kyren Williams role is a rare thing, especially if an RB profiles as a solid starter rather than a difference-making talent.

When Chase Brown was going in Round 3, he made a lot of sense as a better version of the Kyren bet. Now that he's moved into the middle of the 2nd round, it's harder to buy into last year's magical run as a sign of things to come, as opposed to yet another example of drafters being able to find underpriced RB production in the mid-late rounds.

I'd love to hit on something in the vicinity of 2024 Chase Brown production, but I'd like to see if I can do it without spending a 2nd round pick on Chase Brown.

Managed League Recommendation: Fade.

De'Von Achane

Legendary Scenario

De'Von Achane's calf injury ends up being a very minor issue by the time Week 1 rolls around. He doesn't see a huge rushing workload, but of course, he rarely does. And, critically, Achane picks up where he left off last year as a receiver.

The Dolphins' passing offense is healthier than in 2024; they are less dependent on the screen game and more willing to push the ball downfield. But this is still a Mike McDaniel offense. Screens and other designed touches remain an integral part of the attack, and with Jonnu Smith no longer on the team, Achane sees an even bigger share of these targets than he did in 2024.

In a shootout with the Commanders in Week 11, Achane records eight receptions for the third time in his career, going 8/68/1 as a receiver with 13 rushes for 67 yards. He only gets in the end zone once but still scores nearly 30 PPR points (27.5).

It's that kind of season for Achane, who only averages 13 attempts per game—up from 11.9 in 2024, but still well below what we'd expect from a league-winning RB.

But Achane is still wildly productive on a small rushing workload. He averages 5.5 yards per carry, matching his career mark, while still being a yard better per carry than in 2024 (4.5). He can't quite recapure 2023's magical efficiency (7.8 ypc), but he returns to being an explosive rushing threat, helping to keep defenses honest by forcing them to respect the run.

The Dolphins pass at a similar rate to 2024; the results are just much stronger. Tyreek Hill doesn't return to 2023's outrageous form, but he and Jaylen Waddle both have impressive bounce-back seasons.

With the Dolphins able to attack downfield more effectively, there's more room for Achane to operate in the underneath receiving game. He posts 1.54 YPRR, improving on 2024's 1.45 mark.

There are some worrying moments, though. In Week 15, the Dolphins' offensive line has a rough outing, which is more common than Achane's fantasy managers would prefer. On the Dolphins' final drive of the 2nd quarter, T.J. Watt drives Tua Tagovailoa to the turf on a 3rd-and-8 sack.

As the Dolphins line up for a 41-yard field goal with 0:04 left on the clock, Tua heads into the locker room ahead of the rest of the team.

It's a long 15 minutes.

But as the Dolphins exit the locker room, Tagovailoa has his helmet on. And he jogs onto the field after the Dolphins receive the 2nd-half kickoff. Zach Wilson looks as relieved as fantasy managers around the country, who collectively exhale in unison.

For Achane, the Steelers game is still a near disaster. He struggles to get going on the ground, turning in just nine carries for 38 scoreless yards. But he saves his day with a 4th quarter screen pass, which he takes 35 yards for a score. It's his fourth receiving TD from more than 10 yards out on the season, and his sixth receiving TD of the year. With 21.3 PPR points, Achane ultimately does more than enough to help his fantasy managers survive the first playoff week.

Things get more fun the following week, with Joe Cool in Miami. The Bengals defense isn't the outright disaster it was in 2024... but it's not good. And the Bengals understand that Burrow's arm is their path to victory. With a 52-point over/under, this game lives up to its shootout potential.

And with the Dolphins trailing by one score for much of the game, Achane sets a new career highs with 10 targets for nine receptions and 65 yards. Against Cincinatti, he accumlates chunk gains in as a receiver. He doesn't break any long catches or catch a TD.

But... Achane does run one in from 46 yards out, his third-longest run of the season, and his fifth TD from more than 10 yards away.

The Dolphins can't close out the game. Burrow marches the Bengals down the field late in the 4th quarter, and Evan McPherson drills a 39-yard game-winner with the clock expiring.

But the Dolphins have renewed confidence that they can keep pace with anyone.

When Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers come to town the following week, the Dolphins don't mess around. They immediately drive down the field, with Achane punching in a six-yard TD. Throughout the year, he's had to deal with Ollie Gordon stealing some goal line looks, but it's still his seventh green zone TD. He makes it eight three-quarters later.

With 3 minutes left on the clock, Achane takes a swing pass 26 yards, and is pushed out of bounds at the 1-yard line. Ollie Gordon prepares to enter the huddle, but Achane waves him off. After the game, Mike McDaniel tells reporters, "Opportunity is created when ownership overcomes adversity within oneself." (He was fired up).

McDaniel signals for Achane to stay on the field, and he seals a victory with a one-yard plunge, keeping Miami's playoff hopes alive.

Two weeks later, the Dolphins will lose by 18 in Denver, but they don't know that yet.

Achane finishes the season with 1,216 rushing yards and 13 rushing TDs, adding 82/679/7 as a receiver on 97 targets. His 23 PPR points per game easily win leagues from the late 1st round. For teams that scooped him in the late 2nd round... the 2025 season is a walk in the park.

Silent Killer Scenario

In Week 7, the Dolphins travel to Cleveland. They are 3-point underdogs.

By this point in the season, teams have caught on to Mike McDaniel's newest offensive wrinkle, a presnap motion concept dubbed "cheat orbit." In the early weeks of the season, this new gimmick generates some big plays. But it's copied and implemented nearly league-wide by Week 3. Judging by Tua Tagovailoa's disastrous performance against the Chargers in Week 6, defenses have now completely solved it.

McDaniel has one more trick up his sleeve—putting his house up for sale. But before doing that, just to be safe, he tries one last idea.

Against the Browns, McDaniel eases up on the motion gimmicks and shifts to a genuinely old-school power run game, headed by Ollie Gordon.

It's not like this hasn't been suggested. In Week 4, Troy Aikman spends most of the Monday Night Football broadcast imploring the Dolphins to run the damn ball. The Dolphins squander their 4th quarter lead—vindication for Aikman. But everyone has flipped over to the Manningcast by then.

But against the Browns, McDaniel is willing to finally shift gears. Facing Myles Garrett and a weak Browns offense, McDaniel finally drops the flash and grinds out yardage the hard way.

Gordon is excellent. He handles 15 carries for 84 yards and a TD, adding one for 12 as a receiver. And... Achane is even better. He turns nine carries into 65 yards, adding 4/26 as a receiver. But with just 13.1 PPR points, it's a disappointing fantasy day.

This becomes a turning point of sorts for the Dolphins, who still miss the playoffs, but play competitive football down the stretch.

For Achane, it's not all bad. He continues to turn in impressive efficiency throughout the year. His 5.6 yards per carry is an improvement on his 5.5 career mark. And his 7.0 YPT matches his rookie season mark. But Achane just does not have enough volume to support his lofty 2025 ADP.

He sees just 170 attempts, rushing for 952 yards. And the Dolphins' new offensive approach limits him to just 48 receptions (2.8 per game) for 420 yards and two TDs.

His lack of opportunity is especially devastating at the goal line; he averages just 1.4 green zone attempts per game, and scores just five TDs within the 10 yard line. He adds two more from distance.

For the season, Achane averages just 13.4 PRR points per game. In Week 17, when he turns in just 12 PPR points with 90 scoreless yards and three receptions, it... seems normal.

How To Play It

Achane's preseason calf injury has caused his ADP to drop. In the last week, he's fallen behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown in Main Event ADP. I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall a bit further with drafters beginning to get excited about Ollie Gordon, and with Achane's timeline remaining a bit murky.

When Achane was going at the 1/2 turn, I was having a hard time making the bet. We're talking about an RB who averaged just 12 carries per game last year and wasn't very good on that work. Achane finished RB45 of 48 qualifying RBs in RYOE last season. Only Kareem Hunt and D'Andre Swift were worse. He was even worse in success rate, besting only Swift.

Other metrics tell a less concerning story, though. He finished RB24 of 36 in elusive rating (50), and RB9 in breakaway percentage (32%).

Still, after flashing as a special runner in 2023, Achane was deeply disappointing last year. He remains behind a weak offensive line, and his RB competition is definitely more intriguing (if not better).

But this time last year, we were hoping to see Achane take a step forward as a receiver... and man did he ever. Achane jumped from 2.5 receptions per game in 2024 to 4.6 last year. And he mainained strong efficeincy, finishing RB6 with 1.45 YPRR—although he was just RB32 in receiver rating.

Achane just led all RBs with 78 receptions. That's a big deal.

Over the last five seasons, he's one of only six RBs to hit 75+ receptions, the other five being Austin Ekeler (107), Christian McCaffrey (85) in 2022, Breece Hall (76) and Alvin Kamara (75) in 2023, and Alvin Kamara (88) and J.D. McKissic (80) in 2020. This kind of receiving usage isn't common, and while Ollie Gordon might cut into his rushing workload, he doesn't profile as someone who's going to eat into Achane's receiving role. If anything, Jonnu Smith's departure opens up more designed looks for Achane.

And... is Gordon (or Wright for that matter) really that much of a threat on the ground? Achane doesn't necessarily need a huge rushing role. If he can maintain his career rushing efficiency and last year's receiving role, he could become a legend on ~220 carries. His profile has the potential to be very fantasy friendly.

At his previous price, I was having a tough time getting on board with Achane. The Dolphins are a hard team to believe in right now, and Achane's 2024 has several concerning red flags. However, I'm willing to buy the injury discount if he falls behind other targets.

Last week on Ship Chasing, we selected him at the 2.09 as RB10. At that price, I'm willing to chase the upside.

Managed League Recommendation: Target at a discount.

Bucky Irving

Legendary Scenario

Before boarding the plane to Atlanta in Week 1, the Buccaneers list Rachaad White as questionable on the final injury report. It's a formality. White practices in full on Friday; he's going to play.

But White doesn't play much. He doesn't even see the field until the Buccaneers' fifth series, with Sean Tucker working in ahead of him. But Tucker isn't rotating in much either, because Bucky Irving dominates the snaps.

Irving sees 69% of snaps, matching his usage at the end of 2024. And Irving makes good use of his playing time, rushing 17 times for 103 yards and a TD, adding four receptions for 23 yards.

After the game, when asked if Rachaad White's health contributed to the backfield deployment, Bowles notes that players work back at different rates but that they trust White and want to see more of him.

White practices in full ahead of Week 2... then logs just a 30% snap share against the Texans. It's the Bucky Irving show once again, who delivers another big workload with a 6/65/1 receiving line on top of 16 for 87 as a rusher.

As the season progresses, the Bucs finally ease back Irving's usage a bit. But everyone understands the reality here—this is Irving's backfield.

Not everything goes perfectly, though.

The Buccaneers aren't quite as effective under new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard as they were under Liam Coen. The offense sputters in a few key spots, most notably putting up just six points in a Week 12 Sunday Night Football loss to the Rams.

The Bucs also take some opportunities to lean on their other RBs as the season progresses. For example, in a Week 14 home win over the Saints, Sean Tucker salts away the 18-point win. With Irving at 19 PPR points through three quarters, it's not a devastating outcome, but still a frustrating one for fantasy managers looking to lock up a playoff spot.

In Week 15, the Buccaneers prepare for their rematch with the Falcons. Even with a couple of down weeks and some missed opportunities, Irving is having a remarkable season. He's averaging 14.6 carries and 4.4 receptions per game, totaling 1,019 rushing yards, 506 receiving yards, and 11 TDs through 13 games. At 21.2 PPR points per game, Irving is already a regular-season hero. The question is if he can close out a legendary season in the fantasy playoffs.

Michael Penix is significantly more dangerous than he was when he lost to the Buccaneers in Week 1, and he gets the Falcons out to an early lead in Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers, in a 3-way fight for the division title, are on the back foot for the entire game, and forced to the air. This leads to a career high eight receptions for Irving, who goes 8/63/1 as a receiver. In a critical game, Todd Bowles once again forgets about the rest of the backfield. Irving dominates snaps and adds 14 for 72 on the ground, despite the negative game script. It's not enough for the Bucs, who fall 34-31 to the Falcons. But it's a winning week for Irving's fantasy managers.

The Buccaneers then travel to Carolina to face a Panthers team that is coming off a 13-point win over the Saints. Not looking to repeat the previous week's shootout, the Buccaneers pound the rock against the Panthers, dominating time of possession on the road. Irving powers the Bucs to a win with 21 rushes for 115 yards and a TD, adding 3/28 as a receiver.

The Bucs then travel to Miami to play a Dolphins team that is clinging to Wild Card hopes. Tampa Bay ends their season with a dominant win.

Irving is the engine of the offense, tying his career high with 25 rushing attempts. He rushes for 150 yards and two TDs, including a 37-yard rushing TD in the third quarter. It's his seventh run of 30+ yards... tying his rookie season mark.

Irving also racks up eight targets, for 59 receiving yards. With 38.9 PPR points in Week 17, Irving secures a playoff spot for Tampa Bay as his fantasy managers fire the cannons.

Irving finishes with 5.1 yards per carry, down from 5.4 as a rookie. And he turns in 1.58 YPRR, down from 1.62 as a rookie. But with 270 attempts and 75 receptions for 2,013 total yards, and 19 total TDs, he still turns in a legendary season of 23 PPR points per game.

Silent Killer Scenario

It's important not to overreact to the first couple weeks of the season. It's a long year; talent wins out.

This is the type of cope that Irving drafters roll out in early September.

But reality sets in after Week 3, when the Bucs beat the Jets 24-10 at home. With the Buccaneers in positive script for nearly the entire game, Iriving drafters are hoping for a major breakout. The good news is that, for the first time in 2025, Irving hits 15+ carries. The bad news is that he turns 17 carries into just 72 scoreless yards, with just a 2/14 receiving line. What should have been a breakout game yields just 10.6 PPR points.

Part of the problem is that Sean Tucker mixes in more as the Buccaneers' lead builds. Another issue is that Rachaad White, now healthy, has resumed his receiving role.

But Irving is to blame here, too. After looking shot out of a cannon in 2024, Irving's explosiveness in 2025 is more in line with his RAS.

And look, I know you know his RAS is bad, but did you remember that it's 2.22?

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=25196

After averaging 5.4 yards per carry as a rookie, Irving drops to 4.2—matching Tony Pollard in 2024. He doesn't embarrass himself as a runner; he's just not anything special in his second season.

As a receiver, Irving is hurt more by new offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard than by Rachaad White. Grizzard is very focused on Mayfield driving the ball downfield, taking advantage of Mike Evans, and Emeka Egbuka, who hits the ground running as an instant star.

This approach is cemented when Chris Godwin returns to a full-time role after the Buccaneers' Week 9 bye. Godwin made his 2025 debut back in Week 4, but he ramps back up gradually. By Week 10 against New England, though, Godwin is back to his normal self. Grizzard is rotating Godwin and Egbuka in the slot, putting Mike Evans in motion, and generally stressing Mike Vrabel out in this game.

Irving actually sees his receiving role shrink down the stretch, as Mayfield isn't looking to throw to his RB on 1st and 2nd down very often, and White tends to play in obvious passing situations.

Irving finishes the year with a 40/300/1 receiving line finishing with fewer receptions than he did in 2024 (47) and fewer yards (392). He does score his first receiving TD, at least—on an 8-yard screen pass against the Saints in Week 8.

Irving scores just 12.5 PPR points per game, down from 14.4 as a rookie. He becomes just the latest 2nd year player to be anointed as a future star and perform like a future backup.

Fantasy players surely take this lesson to heart and only draft proven starters in the top three rounds of 2026 drafts.... right?

They do not.

After an unsustainably efficient 6-game run to close out the season, Bhayshul Tuten starts 2026 drafts as the 2.11.

How To Play It

Bucky Irving is overtly risky. It's very easy to imagine how he doesn't work out as a 2nd round fantasy bet, given his limited sample, smaller frame, and poor timed athleticism. But the thing about early-round RBs is that every RB is riskier than they seem. We're swinging for upside here.

And with Irving, we get a 23-year-old back running behind one of the best offensive lines in football, attached to an efficient passing offense. And we're getting a player who, on an actual NFL field, has looked incredibly explosive.

Irving put up 186 rush yards over expected as a rookie, just behind Jonathan Taylor (194) and Bijan Robinson (199).

Among RBs with 125+ carries, only Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jordan Mason, and Chuba Hubbard were better on a per-attempt basis.

Irving also posted a 35% breakaway percentage, RB6 behind Saquon Barkley (44%), Derrick Henry (42%), Jahmyr Gibbs (42%), Jordan Mason (37%), and Jonathan Taylor (36%).

Irving was RB3 with a 107 elusive rating, behind Kenneth Walker (110) and Tank Bigsby (107).

Irving finished RB4 with 1.62 YPRR, behind David Montgomery (2.16), Alvin Kamara (1.75), and Jahmyr Gibbs (1.69).

He also finished RB2 in ESPN receiver rating, behind Austin Ekeler.

You can have Irving's 2.22 RAS; I'll take his elite rookie season efficiency.

If he looks anything like last year, he's going to finish what he started and take full control of the Bucs backfield. Rachaad White has little chance of stopping the player we saw last year under the best of circumstances, and is currently recovering from a groin injury.

And it's not just that Irving was excellent last year. It's that for Iriving to become a legendary RB, we need his receiving role to grow.

Looking at previous legendary seasons, we know that the best time to bet on a RB to do this is Year 2. This is when RBs actually tend to take on more in the receiving game. This makes sense. They've just had their first full offseason; they understand the system and are able to focus on refining their game to stay on the field more often.

Given Irving's overall excellence and receiving game promise, he's exactly the type of player we should expect the Bucs to utilize more going forward. With White being a capable receiver, Irving's path to 4+ receptions per game is definitely a little thin, but, like as a runner last year, he could prove capable of forcing the Buccaneers hand.

The last issue here is TD scoring. TD scoring is a huge part of hitting a legendary ceiling. And, at 195 pounds, Irving is undersized.

But in Irving's last four games last year, when he finally had control of the Bucs backfield, he saw nine green zone opportunities—2.25 per game. We're looking for a path to 2.0 per game.

Irving isn't a perfect bet. He requires a leap of faith that last year was the real deal, if so, that the Bucs are willing to believe what's in front of their eyes. But this is a leap of faith I'm willing to make.

Managed League Recommendation: Target.

Jonathan Taylor

Legendary Scenario

Shane Steichen spent his offseason studying tape. Fresh off a Peloton workout and a black cup of coffee, Steichen would throw on film and break down plays for hours.

But he wasn't watching the Colts; he's not a masochist.

Rather, Steichen was scrutinizing his former team. He was studying the Eagles' deployment of Saquon Barkley.

As the Colts' offensive identity solidifies over the early weeks of the season, it becomes clear why Steichen chose Daniel Jones as his starting QB. This offense isn't about the QB. Steichen needs a signal caller who can execute the basics, who can keep defenses at least somewhat honest by hitting one of several wide-open receivers on a semi-regular basis. Jones proves up to the task, turning in deeply uninspiring play, but just good enough to keep the offense on the tracks. Jonathan Taylor is a freight train barreling through opposing defenses.

Taylor averages 20.3 carries per game, a significant drop from 2024 (21.6). But for the second time in his career, Taylor plays an entire season, up from 14 games in 2024. He racks up a ridiculous 345 carries, exactly matching Saquon Barkley's 2024 regular season (16-game) total.

In the running game, Taylor operates as the Colts' version of Barkley. But in the passing game, things diverge slightly.

This is one of the reasons why Daniel Jones turns out to be critical to Taylor's success. Jones isn't great for Taylor's receiving volume, but he can execute screens and throw a decent check-down. This enables Taylor to return to his early career receiving role. In his legendary 2021 season, Taylor totaled 40 receptions in 17 games. In 2025, he sets a new career high with 45.

There's a rocky stretch, though. Early in Week 8, Daniel Jones pulls up on a scramble and hobbles to the sideline. Jones is listed as questionable to return, but he never does. Instead, Anthony Richardson takes over. His main responsibility is handing the ball off to Taylor, who handles 34 carries, tying his 2024 season high. The Colts escape with a narrow victory over the Titans.

Jones gets in a limited practice the following Friday, but he's not ready. Richardson starts in Pittsburgh. Steichen tries his best to operate a modern offense, but if anything, Richardson is even less accurate than he was in 2024. Taylor is the only bright spot for the Colts. He handles 32 carries, matching his second-highest total from 2024, and rushes for 134 yards and a TD. The game is an absolute slog, though, a brutal chore for players and fans alike that ends in a 12-7 Steelers victory. Arthur Smith has never been happier.

Ahead of Week 10's matchup against the Falcons, Daniel Jones is once again limited, and the Colts opt to hold him out again.

The only highlight from this game is the Berlin crowd's rendition of Take Me Home, Country Roads. Richardson is an absolute mess, and Taylor is held to 76 scoreless yards. The Falcons look jetlagged, scoring just 13 points... but it's enough to get the victory.

Mercifully, the Colts head into their Week 11 bye. The plan for the stretch run is now crystal clear—Daniel Jones is starting every game he's healthy enough to play.

Jones retakes the field in Week 12, and the Colts are frisky again. They still lose 25-20 to the Chiefs, but the offense is functional, at least.

In the weeks that follow, the Colts are able to recapture their Eagles-lite form, rattling off wins against the Texans, Jaguars, and Seahawks. When the Colts host the Jaguars in Week 17, they are in the playoff tie-breaker lottery, needing to win out and a few other things to break their way.

With the season on the line, Steichen thinks back to his offseason mornings, watching an elite run game win on the biggest stage. He calls in the first play.

Jonathan Taylor plunges into the line. He spins off Travon Walker, stutter steps, explodes past Yasir Abdullah, and he's gone—65 yards to the house.

Taylor is channeling memories, too. Unhappy ones. He's never forgotten his last game against the Jags with a playoff berth on the line. The 26-11 loss that ended the Carson Wentz era, started the ill-fated Matt Ryan experience, and eventually, somehow, led to him playing for Jeff Saturday. Never again.

Taylor turns 29 carries into 187 yards and two scores. He sees just one target, but he turns a (delightfully accurate) screen pass into a 21-yard TD.

With 39.8 PPR points, Taylor powers the Colts to a win and, for the drafters who hopped on board, punches tickets to fantasy glory.

Silent Killer Scenario

The 2025 Colts are built around Jonathan Taylor, feeding the franchise RB as much as they can. The only issue? They are playing in 2025, not 1995. There are only so many rushing attempts they can realistically give Taylor, given how poorly their QB situation works out.

The Colts know it's going to be a long season right away. As Daniel Jones is strip-sacked for the second time against the Dolphins in Week 1, the idea of choosing Jones for his situational awareness starts to look pretty asinine.

Shane Steichen quickly becomes known as a coach who can't develop a young QB or deliver on a reclamation project. The Colts move on from Steichen during their Week 11 bye. Steichen eventually lands on his feet as a senior offensive consultant in Arizona. The Colts replace Steichen by promoting their WRs coach.

The situation doesn't get any better under interim head coach Reggie Wayne.

Anthony Richardson returns to the lineup for a while, but it's Riley Leonard who closes out the season for the Colts. The directive from ownership is very clear at this point. Wayne oversees the most glorious seven-game losing streak in NFL history, securing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft.

In an effort to keep their tank job from looking too egregious, Taylor continues to see plenty of work. But defenses know exactly what's coming, limiting his ability to hit big plays. And with the Colts severely limiting pass volume, Taylor turns in just an 18/138/0 receiving line. It's his second season in a row with just 18 receptions, although he plays three more games than in 2024.

By sheer force of will, Taylor averages 4.9 yards per carry, matching his career average. But he scores just eight TDs. Given the state of the offense... even that feels impressive.

With 289 more carries added to his career tally, it's hard not to feel like 2025 was nothing but pointless punishment for one of the most talented RBs in football. Only Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Bijan Robinson see more carries in 2025. The problem is, those players are fantasy hits, while Taylor turns in just 13 PPR points per game.

As rough as the 2025 season is for Colts fans, it's ultimately the best-case scenario.

Seeing an offense at No.1 readymade for a franchise QB—and tailor-made for a Manning—Arch tells his grandpa to pipe down, declaring for the 2026 NFL draft.

Jonathan Taylor immediately jumps to the 1/2 turn of fantasy drafts, eventually settling in as the 1.08 in 2026 drafts.

How To Play It

Jonathan Taylor is now four seasons removed from his legendary 2021 season, a season driven by insane rushing production: 332 carries for 1,811 yards and 18 TDs. But in 2021, Taylor also benefitted from decent receiving usage, with a 40/360/2 receiving line.

That kind of receiving usage is still possible for Taylor... if Daniel Jones can hold the job. Last year, in six games with Joe Flacco, Taylor was on pace for 34 receptions. If he can hit 40+ with Daniel Jones, a legendary season is genuinely possible.

At 26 years old, Taylor still profiles as one of the league's premier runners. He's coming off a season with 194 rush yards over expected and a 36% breakaway percentage.

Shane Steichen is highly incentivized to win games. If he doesn't, he won't be coaching the Colts next year. And he fully understands that Taylor is his best path to getting there. He also seems convinced that having Jones under center is critical as well, which provides a significant boost to Taylor's receiving profile compared to playing alongside Anthony Richardson.

At the same time, do we really want to pin our hopes on Daniel Jones? Shane's only doing it because he has to. We have options.

In many ways, Taylor's setup is similar to last year's. He has to turn in incredible rushing production and even then is likely to fall well short of a legendary season. The dude just posted 4.7 yards per carry on 303 carries, while also scoring 12 total TDs... and only had 17.6 PPR points per game.

Taylor is a very talented rusher in his prime, whose team has no choice but to feed him. But his path to a legendary season rests on Daniel Jones' not cratering or Anthony Richardson learning how to throw. It's thin.

Last week on Ship Chasing, we selected Jonathan Taylor at 2.11 in the FFPC Main Event. So, I'm clearly not out on him.

However, some tournament-specific elements of the Main Event make the Taylor selection a bit more appealing.

The FFPC is a very RB-heavy format, given the ability to play RBs in the FLEX. This makes RBs objectively more valuable, but also creates a market where people just do not stop taking RBs. This is a draft where Austin Ekeler went in the 10th round and Nick Chubb went in the 11th. So, we sometimes break ties to RB when the positional value is close.

The FFPC also has a 12-week regular season, placing a greater emphasis on getting off to a fast start—another reason to break ties to a highly projectable player like Taylor.

Taylor's breakaway ability also creates a high ceiling. Last year, he hit 39.8 PPR points in Week 16 without seeing a single target. Taylor's lack of a consistent receiving role makes him less consistent and makes it harder for him to access his ceiling... but he can still put up single-week spikes with the best of them. This is an important consideration for the Main Event, which ends in a 3-week sprint, awarding $1 million to the highest-scoring team out of several hundred. 2nd place is $200,000; 10th place is $10,000; it's a you're not first, you're last kind of tournament. His lighting-in-a-bottle upside is more appealing there.

All that to say, Taylor can definitely be a good pick. I just think that usually there are better picks on the board.

Managed League Recommendation: Target at a Discount.

Josh Jacobs

Legendary Scenario

Through the first four weeks of the season, the Packers are 2-2. They dropped their first two games to the Lions and Commanders, but recovered against the Browns and Cowboys. Now on their bye week, Matt LaFluer is breaking down those games. It quickly becomes clear that the team will have more success if they lean on the run game for consistency. Jordan Love offers explosive passing potential, but he was also exposed in shootout scripts in the first two weeks. The Packers need to pick their spots in the passing game.

The new plan of attack pays immediate dividends, with the Packers winning at home against the Bengals. They then add wins against the Cardinals, Steelers, and Panthers.

Josh Jacobs is just as consistent as LaFluer hoped, handling 20 carries per game. Jacobs is a key part of the passing game as well, totaling 53 receptions.

Jacobs totals 340 carries and 53 receptions. Stunningly, both numbers exactly match his 2022 numbers with the Raiders.

But the 2025 Packers are not the 2022 Raiders.

Although LaFleur isn't looking to lean on Love as the down-to-down engine of the offense, he understands the upside he brings to the table. Working off of Jacobs, Love generates downfield production, creating frequent scoring opportunities.

Jacobs crushes his 2022 TD total (12), scoring 21 times, with 19 on the ground and two through the air.

Jacobs is also a more efficient runner than in past seasons, setting a career high in yards per carry (5.0).

Heading into Week 15, Jacobs has zero 30+ point games. But from Week 6 -14, he hits 20+ points every single week.

When Josh Jacobs is on the opposing squad, it spurs messages between co-managers.

The 20+ point streak comes to an end against the Broncos in Week 15, but Jacobs still puts up a respectable 16.6 points. And he gets right back on track against the Bears with 24 PPR points, as part of a 21-14 win that clinches a Wild Card spot.

With the division title still up for grabs, the Packers host the Ravens in Week 17.

Jacobs has proven his consistency. He's been the key to the Packers success, both down to down and week to week. But, if the Packers want a really big play... they need to rely on Jordan Love.

Jacobs has a couple 30+ yard runs, but as good as he's been he has zero of 40+. He hasn't had one of those since Week 12 of 2023.

That changes against the Ravens. Baltimore's excellent defense bottles up Jacobs for much of the afternoon. But with 12:10 remaining in the 3rd quarter, he takes a handoff from the 50, truck sticks Malaki Starks, and pinballs his way into the end zone.

On 24 attempts, Jacobs totals 155 yards and two TDs. He also logs five receptions for 36 PPR points.

Jabobs' faders had gotten used to the idea of him consistently putting up great weeks. But, at least, they thought, he won't bury us. With the faders now 6-feet under, Jacobs posts a championship-winning legendary season.

Silent Killer Scenario

When the Packers built their offense around the run in 2024, it ended up being pretty ideal for Josh Jacobs. But the sequel isn't nearly as exciting.

Part of the problem is that, like in 2024, the Packers don't have a No. 1 WR. The issue with that is that they just spent their 1st round pick on a WR for the first time since 2002.

But while Matthew Golden looks like a capable enough starter, he's more of a Romeo Doubs-level talent than someone who can consistently earn targets. Worse still, Golden's timed 40 doesn't match his play speed. He's definitely quick, but he's not the type of burner who can take the top off the defense... which makes him a schematic downgrade from Christian Watson. Golden turns out to be a less dynamic version of Jayden Reed, but with the ability to play outside. That's not terrible, but the 2025 offense is severely lacking in verticality.

Jordan Love continues to lack consistency. And with weaponry better suited for consistent chunk gains than explosive downfield plays, Love looks out of sync with his offense.

Matt LaFleur's solution is to run back the 2024 plan of attack, building the plane out of Josh Jacobs.

And, to Jacobs' credit, he carries the load for the Packers, handling 301 attempts for the second straight season.

But Jacobs' efficiency drops slightly from 2024's 4.4 yards per carry to his career mark of 4.2. He also drops from 15 rushing TDs down to just eight, and returns to scoring zero receiving TDs after scoring the first receiving TD of his entire career in 2024.

Jacobs also sees his receptions drop from 36 to 29 and his receiving yards from 342 to 222. He's still a workhorse runner, but a far less exciting fantasy RB.

The Packers' Week 17 loss to the Ravens is a microcosm of his season.

The Packers work to establish Jacobs early, feeding him 10 carries in the first half. He delivers 44 scoreless yards as the Packers fall behind by 10.

Receiving the 2nd half kickoff, the Packers grind out an 8-minute, 19-second drive, culminating with Jacobs punching in a 2-yard TD. Jacobs is now up to 15 carries on the day for 61 yards and a TD.

But after a long Ravens drive, Jacobs' next touch isn't until the beginning of the 4th quarter, with the Packers down 10. It's a three-yard reception on 2nd-and-10. After a Dontayvion Wicks drop on the following play, the Packers punt.

Down 17, Jacobs adds a total of five yards on two garbage-time carries. His day ends with 64 total yards and a TD, for 13.4 PPR points—his average score for the season.

With just 229 PPR points on 330 touches, it's a season reminiscent of Najee Harris' 2022, when he turned 272 carries and 41 receptions into just 225 PPR points (13.3 per game).

How To Play It

Jacobs is a good running back who combines the ability to handle big workloads with decent receiving versatility.

Jacobs is also coming off one of his best rushing seasons, finishing RB5 in rush yards over expected, behind Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Chuba Hubbard, and Jahmyr Gibbs.

But Jacobs has been a consistent chunk play runner over the course of his career, rather than a game-breaking explosive runner. He's only once finished with a breakaway percentage of 25%+, and it was his rookie season (32%).

Jonathan Taylor has hit 32%+ in three differnt seasons including a 36% mark last year. Saquon Barkley has hit 32%+ six different times, and was at 44% last year. Jahmyr Gibbs is coming off a 42% mark and was at 39% as a rookie. Jacobs lack of explosive playmaking means he needs a huge rushing workload in combination with an elite TD and/or receiving profile to pick up the slack.

But while Jacobs is a solid enough receiver, he's never had more than 400 receiving yards and has a career YPRR of just 1.19. He will add solid receiving production, but it's unlikely to be the driver of a legendary season in a way that's actually pretty damn plausible for Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, and De'Von Achane. In fact, as a veteran bet on the status quo, his path to a receiving breakout looks considerably thinner than Bucky Irving's or Chase Brown's.

Jacobs is locked into a strong workload for the Packers, a team that fed him 337 touches in 2024. But consider that in 2023, Christian McCaffrey saw just two more touches than Jacobs did in 2024. McCaffrey turned 339 touches into 393 PPR points. Jacobs averaged just 17.4.

Additionally, while Jacobs' 301 carries were only RB6 last year, that would have been enough for RB1 in 2023, RB4 in 2022, and RB3 in 2021. He's not coming off a normal season. He's coming off an extremely high-volume rushing workload that will be difficult for him to repeat. And, even if he does, his scoring profile creates risk that he'll still be a silent killer.

One of Jacobs' paths to a legendary season is if the Packers pass more and rely less on Jacobs and the running game. Jacobs was impressive as a receiver last year, fishing RB7 in YPRR and RB4 in ESPN's receiver rating. If the Packers are willing to throw this year and Jacobs operates in a three down role, he could be an extremely consistent fantasy producer.

I think that path is unlikely. Jacobs is 27 and is coming off a career year in receiving efficiency. But it does at least provide another (thin) path to 23+ points per game outside of seeing nearly 400 touches.

I find Jacobs more interesting as a best ball pick, where his potential to consistently hold down an RB spot makes him a good fit for hero, double hero, or hyperfragile RB builds. I'm at 6% in my best ball portfolio, and have typically taken him in Round 3 rather than Round 2. But in managed leagues, at a 2nd round price tag, I'd rather build WR depth or take Brock Bowers.

Managed League Recommendation: Fade.

Rankings - Legendary Upside
Evidence Based Football Analysis from Pat Kerrane: Covering Best Ball, Season Long, and Dynasty
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The LegUp Sidekick is a dynamic rankings tool. Much like the playoff best ball tool we launched in 2023, the Sidekick reorders our rankings after every pick. Except you don’t have to put your picks in anymore. All you do is select a player. The Sidekick automatically updates the rankings.
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