Are Best Ball Drafters Too Low on the 2026 WR Class?
The 2026 rookie class, as dynasty players will tell you, is not strong. This has been covered in considerable detail by others in the industry... and by me. And in working my way through rookie drafts, I didn't get any higher on this class. From a dynasty perspective, particularly from a superflex dynasty perspective, the 2027 rookie class can't get here soon enough.
But it also remains true that best ball tournaments are a distinct type of fantasy football game—quite separate from dynasty. Crucially, the bar for what counts as a rookie hit is typically quite a bit higher in dynasty than in best ball.
In best ball, we quite literally do not need rookies to turn in multiple productive seasons; we need them to outproduce their ADP for one, and only one, season. If a former rookie eventually fails to live up to increased expectations in a future season... that's something for future best ball players to avoid. And while I wish good luck to future me... I am not writing this in 2027 or 2028. I am here in 2026, drafting best ball teams for the 2026 season alone. And so, right here, right now, I just need to find rookies who can outperform their 2026 ADPs.
And, despite this being a weak class overall, I do not think the 2026 rookie wide receiver class is bad. Sure, it's not amazing. But this is a class with two WRs who went in the top 10 picks and includes five Round 1 selections in total. We also got another dozen WRs who went on Day 2. The NFL is signaling that there could be some serious talent in this class.
And crucially, the price for acquiring these rookies is markedly lower than in dynasty, where rookie picks are rarely available at a major discount even in a bad class. In best ball, on the other hand, 2026's rookie WRs are currently far cheaper than they were in 2024 or 2025.
2024 brought us the most expensive rookie WR class of all time, with two rookie WRs in the top 40 picks, a total of seven in the top 80 picks, and a total of eight in the top 125 picks.
Things cooled off a bit in 2025, but we still had one WR in the top 40 picks, a total of four in the top 80 picks, and a total of seven WRs in the top 125 picks.
This year, Carnell Tate and Jordyn Tyson are both well outside the top 40 picks. With the addition of Makai Lemon, 2026 has three WRs in the top 80 picks. KC Concepcion is the only other WR going in the top 125, for a total of just four WRs. Again, that's compared to eight in 2024 and seven in 2025.
Arguably, this is just the market correcting. Rookie WRs were historically expensive just two seasons ago; perhaps the market is simply coming to its senses and cooling off on a particularly volatile player archetype.
To help determine if that is the case, and to illuminate the larger context, let's take a look back at the data from previous seasons. Which rookies have actually been delivering for best ball?
Rookie WR Best Ball Results
To do this, I utilized RotoViz's Underdog Advance Rate Explorer, which has data from 2021-25.
Looking only at WRs drafted 1,000+ times in Best Ball Mania, I broke out the rookie WRs into five groups.
- Group 1 - Legends
- True league-winning picks you'd have been happy to have on every team.
- Group 2 - Hits
- Added value above cost.
- Group 3 - Small Misses
- Not hits, but provided at least some production.
- Group 4 - Whiffs
- Picks that hurt teams, even if there were some occasional bright spots.
- Group 5 - Landmines
- The type of pick that was a gut punch to an otherwise good team.
Group 1 - Legends
Round 1 Draft Picks
Ja'Marr Chase was the league-winning rookie of all league-winning rookies. He posted a 23% advance rate and then nuked for 50.1 half-PPR points in Week 17. As you'd expect, he was on Liam Murphy's winning BBM2 team.
Brian Thomas was a break-even advance rate player, but then dropped 20+ half-PPR points in all three playoff weeks, becoming a true playoff hammer. He was on LGREWE50's BBM5-winning team.
Garrett Wilson had the highest advance rate of the trio, the result of his absurdly cheap ADP of 114.
Round 2 Draft Picks
Jayden Reed was a big-time advance rate hit and then dropped 23.9 points in Week 17. Fittingly, Reed was a on Farid Shaheed's winning BBM4 team.
Round 3 Draft Picks
Tank Dell has the second-highest advance rate of any WR drafted since 2021. Unfortunately, he was injured in Week 13. But drafting Dell, particularly stacked with CJ Stroud, was one of the best uses of a late round pick in 2023.
Day 3 Draft Picks
Puka Nacua has the highest advance rate of any rookie WR since 2021. He was only drafted in ~31% of drafts in 2023 and didn't end up on the winning team. But it's hard to argue against him being the best rookie WR pick in BBM history.
Amon-Ra St. Brown turned in a solid but unspectacular advance rate, but then posted half-PPR scores of 19.5, 21.5, and 31.4 in Weeks 15-17. He was a core part of Liam Murphy's winning team.
