London Game Walkthrough Week 5: Bhayshul Tuten, International Star
Welcome to the Week 5 London Game Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for a glorious international football game.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Eagles vs. Jaguars, 9:30 AM
Eagles
Implied Team Total: 17
When Jalen Hurts lost to Case Keenum in Week 3, it was very concerning. But, on some level, there was a sense he'd hit bottom.
That sense, which, to be fair, you perhaps did not share, proved very wrong. Hurts was considerably worse against the Rams.
Hurts now ranks just QB30 in EPA per game. He's also just QB39 in success rate. And when I watch Hurts play, it's the down-to-down inconsistency that stands out the most. This offense has zero rhythm.
Hurts now gets a Jaguars defense that has been very opportunistic, but doesn't actually rate very well several key metrics. They rank poorly in dropback success rate; they are consistently allowing positive gains through the air. And the Jags are allowing explosive passing plays at a high rate as well.
If Hurts had DeVonta Smith for this game, this would profile as a potential bounce-back spot, albeit one with a low floor if we get the wrong version of Hurts in London.
But Smith has been ruled out for another game with a hamstring injury. His absence clearly contributed to the Eagles' disarray against the Rams, and he is a significant loss in this matchup as well.
One of Hurts' biggest issues has been getting the ball out quicker and avoiding pressure. He needs to play more on time and take what the defense is giving him.
Unfortunately, what Hurts isn't doing well is exactly how you beat the Jags. As Drake Maye learned, if you consistently try to win out of structure, this defense will turn you over.
And in addition to not having their top WR, the Eagles are without multiple starters on the offensive line... for the rest of the season. Lane Johnson announced his retirement, and the Eagles traded starting center Cam Jurgens to the Ravens. Johnson played the first three games of the year before missing Week 4. Jurgens started at center all four weeks. Hurts could face even more pressure this week.
Ideally, with Smith out, Hurts would have formed a clear connection with another WR by now. But Dontayvion Wicks hasn't really been that guy. Wicks was a useful downfield complement when Smith was in the lineup but failed to step up last week, in part due to increased double coverage.
Wicks' profile is fine in a Devaughn Vele sort of way, but he isn't flashing as a potential short-term replacement for Smith. And unlike Vele, he's not part of a high-volume passing game.
Wicks also popped up with a hamstring injury on Thursday and then was limited in practice Friday. Wicks isn't listed on the final injury report and will definitely play this week... but it's still not ideal that he's working through a hamstring injury to some extent. He's a WR5.
Unfortunately, Makai Lemon has been significantly worse. Over the last two weeks, he's finally started to earn real downfield targets at a decent rate, rather than being limited to the worst screen concepts you've seen in your entire life. But that hasn't led to efficiency or production.
To have any hope for Lemon this week, you have to be willing to give significant weight to his prospect profile. But... we're four games into his rookie season, so I am willing to do that. That's not to say his start hasn't been rough. It has. But it's still worth leaving the WR5 light on here.
For single-game slates, it's worth noting that Darius Cooper was at 91% route participation against the Rams. And Cooper was able to draw targets as well.
The one piece of good news for this offense is that Dallas Goedert is set to return this week. Goedert has logged just one full game this year. He exited early in Week 2 against the Titans. But against the Commanders, Goedert was excellent.
Goedert should pick up some of the slack in the receiving game and is a TE1.
Goedert should also be able to help out in the run game, which the Eagles are likely to be focused on, particularly if Hurts is struggling again.
Under Sean Mannion, the Eagles have been an extremely conservative team.
And last week, with Jalen Hurts in horrific form, they tried their best to hide him.
If, as 7.5-point underdogs, the Eagles trail throughout this game, there's no guarantee they actually embrace that script. They could simply look to limit the damage and fly back home.
But playing for a graceful loss could prove painful. The Jags are excellent against the run.
And, of course, the Eagles will be without their star RB. Despite being attached to a deeply disappointing passing game, Saquon Barkley has been running very efficiently this year.
Will Shipley has not.
With Tank Bigsby also injured, Shipley is set to carry the load this week. But, truly, the biggest value he provides to the offense is his lack of rushing talent. This is not a matchup where the Eagles should lean on the run. With Barkley active... they probably would have anyway. With Shipley as the lead back, maybe they'll actually play aggressively. Or maybe they'll just slam Dameon Pierce into the line. Either way, Shipley is an RB3.
