Paris Game Walkthrough Week 7: DK Metcalf in the Louvre
Welcome to the Week 7 Paris Game Walkthrough.
In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for a glorious international football game.
(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).
PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.
Steelers vs. Saints, 9:30 AM
Steelers
Implied Team Total: 24
Aaron Rodgers is coming off a very inefficient game against the Bucs. It's the type of performance that loses games.
And for the season, Rodgers doesn't look a whole lot better. He's averaging -2.5 EPA per game with a poor 43% success rate.
And yet... Rodgers ranks eighth in passing yards this season, is tied for fourth in passing TDs, and the Steelers are 4-2.
Volume is the key ingredient here. The Steelers' 5% pass rate over expected ranks behind only the Bengals (6%), and their 70% pass rate ranks behind only the Cowboys (71%). The Steelers also have a 7% PROE on 1st down, behind only the Bengals (10%) and the Bears (8%).
And it's not like the Steelers are slowing down. They are coming off a season-high 12% PROE on 1st-and-10, and just posted a 6%+ PROE for the fourth time.
The Steelers also tied their season high in pass rate last week.
Pittsburgh now gets a Saints defense that has been brutally inefficient against the run. Perhaps Pittsburgh shifts to the run here?
Then again, maybe the Steelers don't do that. The Saints have not been a run funnel this year. Overall, teams are actually shifting to the pass against them.
Granted, we have seen some opponents go run heavy against the Saints. But that's hardly the established path. When the Ravens and Vikings are posting a positive PROE against a defense, that tells us something.
In this case, Saints opponents are telling us that they do not fear this pass defense. The Saints have been vulnerable in coverage while struggling badly to generate pressure. At first glance, this matchup looks like it could shift the Steelers to the run. I think it's better thought of as a potential efficiency boost for the Steelers' passing game, which should retain plenty of volume.
Aaron Rodgers has been getting the ball out quickly, which has helped limit pressure. But he should have a bit more time to let routes develop this week.
That is most bullish for DK Metcalf, who posted just a 7.7 aDOT against a Bucs defense that blitzes frequently and effectively. The Saints blitz as well, to be fair. But they've been far less efficient when blitzing than the Bucs. They're also allowing explosive plays at a much higher rate.
Metcalf is kind of a hybrid possession receiver / deep threat this year. And he'll likely continue in that role this week. But this matchup boosts his chances of getting free downfield. He's a WR2.
Germie Bernard's role is a little more clear-cut. He's an underneath slot WR. But Bernard is now locked into a full-time role and has demonstrated an ability to earn targets and add after the catch.
His 19% TPRR barely trails Metcalf's 20%, and despite a much shallower aDOT (5.1 vs. 11.4), he leads in YPRR as well (1.43 vs. 1.25). Bernard is a low-end WR2.
Both Bernard and Metcalf are helped by the fact that, for the second straight week, I had to look up who the Steelers' No. 3 WR will be this week. And that's not because the player changed. It's because the name Brandon Smith just won't stick in my brain. With 29 untargeted routes against the Bucs, he doesn't seem to have made his way into Aaron Rodgers' consciousness either.
With Roman Wilson out, the Steelers have shifted to more 2TE sets, which boosted Darnell Washington's playing time last week.
But the Steelers aren't living in 12-personnel. We'll see a solid role for both tight ends, but neither is installed as a true full-time player.
Pat Freiermuth is the better bet for playing time, which makes him the better fantasy play. He's a high-end TE2, with Washington as a low-end TE2.
In the backfield, Jaylen Warren is set up nicely against a bad run defense, and as a true receiving threat on a team that should pass plenty.
But Rico Dowdle's return, as expected, proved annoying. Dowdle posted a 7% target share, which ate into Warren's receiving role.
With 1.09 YPRR, it's not like Dowdle can't play in the passing game. Arguably, that's the best thing he's bringing to the table considering how brutal he's been as a runner.
However, Warren has been one of the best pass-catching RBs in the league this year, while also profiling as an elite runner.
Dowdle turns this matchup from a potentially nuclear game for Warren into simply a strong setup. But as a bet on talent and on the matchup, Warren is a high-end RB2.
