Week 7 Walkthrough: Flowers in Bloom

Pat Kerrane

23 Oct 2026

Welcome to the Week 7 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the seventh glorious football Sunday of 2026.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Bengals at Ravens, 1 PM

Bengals

Implied Team Total: 23.5

Per tradition, the Bengals passing game got off to a slow start this year, with Joe Burrow turning in weak efficiency and consistency.

Over his last three games, though, Burrow has turned things around in a big way.

For the season, Burrow now looks like he usually does—one of the top passers in the NFL.

Burrow has been succeeding by getting the ball out quickly and typically to his first read. That is helping to limit pressure. But Burrow is still at least somewhat aggressive. Most notably, he has a solid 9% splash zone attempt rate—meaning that he's attacking 10+ yards downfield and over the middle.

The Ravens have not protected the middle of the field well, while also having a mediocre pass rush. This isn't an easy matchup. The Ravens are quite capable on defense. But this doesn't look like a matchup that will push Burrow out of his comfort zone either.

With both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins healthy, the Bengals are very likely to lean into the strength of their offense.

They've had a positive PROE in every game this season.

They've also been aggressive on 1st down.

Overall, the Bengals are clearly going out of their way to feature their passing game.

As a defense, the Ravens haven't really been pushing opponents toward the pass or the run. The safest bet is to assume the Bengals will play to their own identitiy here.

With Lamar Jackson now back at practice and looking likely to play, this game could get pretty damn fun. Chase profiles an elite WR1 this week, with Higgins as a low-end WR1.

At tight end, Mike Gesicki is very TD-dependent with both of the Bengals' star WRs in the lineup. Gesicki is a high-end TE3.

The Ravens have been solid against the run, reinforcing the Bengals' likelihood of featuring Burrow.

This rushing matchup isn't great news for Chase Brown, who has been deeply disappointing as a runner.

Earlier in the season, it looked like Brown's role was safe, even if he continued to disappoint as a runner. That was probably true... but only to a point. Among RBs with 25+ carries, Brown is ahead of only Emanuel Wilson (-12), JK Dobbins (-12), and MarShawn Lloyd (-13) in RYOE per game. That kind of bottom-of-the-barrel inefficiency can open up some unexpected doors, which is how Samaje Perine found himself leading the Bengals in carries in Week 5.

Brown retained a lead in snaps and will probably be the lead runner this week. But as a volume-based play, Brown suddenly looks shaky. He's an RB2.

Ravens

Implied Team Total: 25

Lamar Jackson's status remains somewhat up in the air for this game, but after practicing on both Wednesday and Thursday (LP/LP), he looks likely to suit up.

Jackson represents a major boost to the Ravens' offense. He ranks QB4 in EPA per game and currently leads the NFL in success rate.

Tyler Huntley has been a capable backup, but obviously is also a major downgrade from Jackson.

Like Jackson, Huntley is mobile. And he shares Jackson's impressive 71% completion percentage.

Critically, though, Jackson has completed 71% of his passes with the deepest aDOT in the NFL. He's a big-play machine.

Huntley's 6.1 aDOT is the second-lowest mark in the NFL.

Jackson's return specifically restores big-play upside to the offense, while not just maintaining but dramatically improving on its consistency.

The Ravens now get a matchup against a Bengals defense that is getting pressure effectively, but which has not been good in coverage.

Cincinnati has kept Baker Mayfield, CJ Stroud, and Malik Willis in check. But both Aaron Rodgers and Trevor Lawrence were efficient against them.

If Jackson is unable to suit up this week, it will be a major bummer. With Huntley at QB, the Ravens are likely to be far less explosive.

But assuming Jackson suits up, he sets up for a highly consistent and explosive passing day.

Either way, Zay Flowers remains a very strong bet for targets. Regardless of who is at QB, Flowers has been getting fed.

Flowers' fantasy breakout hasn't quite been to 2025 JSN levels... but if he and Jackson can stay healthy going forward, that kind of breakout isn't out of the question. Flowers leads the NFL in YPRR; he just needs the overall environment to improve.

Part of that improvement is volume related. Flowers would benefit from more routes. And with Jackson back, the Ravens are far less likely to fight against a game environment that could be quite pass-heavy.

That's generally been the approach of Bengals opponents... with the Dolphins being a massive exception.

The Ravens are generally inclined to lean on the run, but as last week showed, even with Huntley at QB, they can be pushed into a high pass rate. With Jackson, we could be looking at a true shootout.

Flowers already has efficiency on his side and is now looking at a major QB efficiency boost. Critically, Jackson's return also increases Flowers' upside for route volume against a vulnerable secondary. He's a high-end WR1.

Rashod Bateman was knocked out of the Browns game with a shoulder injury, but looks likely to suit up here after practicing in full Thursday. His presence as a downfield WR helps the offense, but he's just a dart throw.

Ja'Kobi Lane is also a dart throw, but a more intriguing one. He's been earning targets at a solid rate, and could see his route participation ramp up in his second game back from injury.

At tight end, Mark Andrews is coming off just a 12% TPRR, his lowest mark of the season by a significant margin. Less surprisingly, Andrews was very inefficient on the work he saw.

As I mentioned last week, Andrews technically looks like a positive regression candidate. Last week, though, I wanted to wait until Jackson was back to take that leap of faith. After last week's drop in target rate, that leap is all the more frightening. But as a bet on Jackson, Andrews' established role this year, and on the matchup, Andrews is a TE1.

On the ground, the Bengals have been pretty solid.

Meanwhile, Derrick Henry is coming off a quiet game against the Browns.

Henry hasn't been bad as a runner this year, but he hasn't been very impressive, either. He functions as a bet that the Ravens can play from ahead or in neutral script for most of this game. In that environment, he has strong TD equity, especially with Jackson back. Henry is an RB1.

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49ers at Falcons, 1 PM

49ers

Implied Team Total: 26

Brock Purdy recovered nicely after a down game against the Seahawks, turning in strong efficiency on Monday Night.

With a 43% success rate, Purdy wasn't very consistent. But considering that he was dealing with major WR injuries—including losing Mike Evans to an in-game Achilles tendinitis flare-up—we can cut him a little slack.

In fact, despite a decimated 49ers WR corps, Purdy has turned in strong numbers in every game, outside of Week 5, against an elite defense.

Purdy currently ranks second to only Lamar Jackson in success rate, and ranks QB4 in EPA per game.

Purdy now faces a Falcons defense that is pressuring very effectively. They are frequently getting home, while also pressuring quickly. And the Falcons are applying pressure without blitzing.

However, the 49ers have protected Purdy very well this year. And while the Falcons have a strong pass rush, their overall pass defense is fairly middling. Aaron Rodgers is the only QB they've truly shut down this year.

The Falcons are also good against the run, making a run-heavy game plan an unideal choice here.

Ealier in Purdy's career, we might expect the 49ers to lean on the run here, regardless of the matchup. They are dealing with numerous WR injuries and, after all, this is Kyle Shanahan.

However, Shanahan has been much more aggressive this year, posting a 3% PROE and a 5% PROE on 1st-and-10.

The 49ers have also remained pass-first in recent weeks, even as they've lost both Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans to in-game injuries in back-to-back weeks.

Evans, who is dealing with Achilles tendinitis, hasn't practiced this week. Of course, he didn't practice last week, and still played, despite also dealing with a ribs injury.

When Evans was on the field last week, despite his injuries and despite an 81% double coverage rate—the highest I can remember seeing—Evans was tremendous, posting 5.88 YPRR, his highest mark of the season.

In all honesty, I'm hoping Evans sits this week. He's a generational WR, and I'm hoping he can avoid a major setback while playing limited. But if Evans guts it out again, he's a WR2. He'd be higher than that if not for reinjury risk... but unfortuantely that's part of the package right now.

Behind Evans, Christian Kirk looks likely to return this week. Based on his 2025 profile, Kirk is really just a warm body.

Then again, with where the 49ers are at WR right now, adding a warm body is pretty bullish. Kirk is a dart throw if he goes.

Beyond Evans and Kirk, the 49ers have Jordan Watkins, Brandin Cooks, and Jacob Cowing as their top options.

Cowing has been a pure route eater.

You could say the same for Watkins... but he was at least in a full-time role last week.

Brandin Cooks looks like the best bet for WR targets if Evans is out. But if Evans plays, he may be behind Watkins again. With Evans out, both Watkins arnd Cooks are dart throws.

Regardless of whether Evans plays, the 49ers are likely to deploy a heavy dose of 21 personnel, meaning two backs and one tight end. That allows them to use Kyle Juszczyk in the passing game, which in turn allows them to play only two WRs.

With Evans ailing, if not out, George Kittle again sets up as the top downfield receiver. Kittle was excellent against the Commanders despite also seeing a high double coverage rate.

Kittle both deserves to be and needs to be the focal point of the passing attack this week. He's an elite TE1.

Out of the backfield, Christian McCaffrey is also likely to step up as a true receiving weapon. Last week, McCaffery turned in a season-high 36% target share, leading the 49ers.