Week 6 Walkthrough: Malik Nabers Turns Up the Volume

Pat Kerrane

16 Oct 2026

Welcome to the Week 6 Walkthrough.

In this article, I'll outline critical fantasy football context for the sixth glorious football Sunday of 2026.

(The stats below are from PFF, NFLfastR, rbsdm.com, RotoViz, FantasyLabs, Fantasy Life, Fantasy Points, ESPN, FTN, and NFL Next Gen).

One note for this week: I updated the QB charts to include rushing EPA per game. This counts both designed runs and scrambles as rushing plays. Kneel downs are excluded entirely. The bubble size is now scaled by rushing EPA per game to help visualize mobility.

PROE data is available for subscribers at the bottom of the post.

Saints at Giants, 1 PM

Saints

Implied Team Total: 23.5

Tyler Shough was predictably inefficient against the Vikings defense. Still, it was a bummer to see just how poorly he played.

Even Kellen Moore seemed bummed. For the first time all year, the Saints posted a negative PROE, and they were negative on 1st down for just the second time.

Against the Vikings, the Saints were truly trying to hide their passing game.

Of course, hiding your passing game is a lot harder when Kendre Miller is your lead runner.

Miller has run extremely poorly this year.

Miller does at least get a soft Giants run defense this year, but the Saints would probably like to shift away from him. As far as engines of offenses go, Miller is an old lawnmower. Miller is an RB4.

Alvin Kamara saw a dip in playing time last week, as he dealt with a back injury.

CJ Donaldson filled in as the receiving back.

If healthier this week, this is a better setup for Kamara. But he's still just an RB4.

The Saints probably don't want to lean on Tyler Shough as much as they've had to start the season. After all, Shough hasn't been very efficient.

But with the Saints' running game in rough shape, Shough is typically going to be their best option. That's why, when not facing Brian Flores, they have been leaning on the pass.

The Saints have also been playing with pace.

Shough and the Saints now get a Giants defense that ranks dead last in pressure rate. Abdul Carter is the defense's only reliable pass rusher, but even Carter ranks just EDGE55 in pressures per pass rush snap.

The lack of a pass rush is pretty massive for the Saints, who have struggled to protect Shough this year—which helps explain why last week was so painful.

The Giants haven't been terrible on defense. They shut down both Cam Ward and Jacoby Brissett. But they've allowed efficient days to their other QB opponents.

And, critically, we probably don't need Shough to be super efficient here. We just need the Saints to get back to featuring the passing game, which looks quite likely, given their other option.

As you would expect, given Shough's struggles, Chris Olave is coming off a down game. But Olave's underlying target numbers were still quite strong.

Olave has seen a 22%+ first-read target rate in every game this year. He's about as locked-in as a No. 1 option can get.

And while Shough has some limitations as a QB, he is very willing to rip the first read.

Olave has been dealing with an illness this week. However, provided he is expected to be in his normal role, this is a nice setup. Olave gets a much softer defense than last, and one that is unlikely to double cover him at anywhere near the rate the Vikings did. Olave is a high-end WR1.

Devaughn Vele also saw a ton of double coverage last week. His 42% rate was even higher than Olave's 36%. He'll see more single coverage this week and, more importantly, will run a lot more routes as part of a higher-volume offensive operation. Vele has been a bet on raw volume more than anything else, but that volume looks likely to return. He's a WR4.

Juwan Johnson was also unable to overcome last week's matchup. And, against the blitz-heavy Vikings, he saw his second-lowest route participation of the season.

Johnson should be back to a bigger role this week, though. And with decent efficiency and solid route participation, he's a low-end TE1.

Giants

Implied Team Total: 22

In his first two games, Jameis Winston was dreadful, profiling as one of the worst QBs in the league.

Winston has been much better since, though. Over the last two weeks, he's been legitimately impressive, turning in 12.1 EPA per game, which would have led the NFL last season.

For the season, Winston still looks mediocre. And, for future weeks, it'll be important to remember that he rebounded against the Cardinals and Commanders, two unimpressive defenses.

However, this week, Winston gets another soft matchup. The Saints aren't great in coverage and struggle to rush the passer.

Winston is playing his style of football. He ranks QB7 in aDOT, and only Malik Willis (19%) has a higher deep pass rate.

However, this doesn't represent Winston freelancing. The Giants are building this into the offense. Winston has a fairly quick 2.70-second time to throw, and a 65% first-read attempt rate. With Dart out, the Giants look bought into the Winston experience. Not fully bought in—per John Harbaugh, they have "more in store for the JJ McCarthy package." But with Winston under center, they aren't trying to turn him into something he's not.

Malik Nabers has been drawing targets deep downfield over the last two weeks, while also posting strong target rates and efficiency. The star WR has also returned to an every-route role.

Coming off his best game of the season, Nabers now gets a good matchup in what could easily be a high-volume game environment. He's a WR1.

Before last week, I would have been more concerned about overall passing volume for the Giants. Over the course of the season, they've hidden the passing game.

However, against the Commanders, they opened things up in a big way.

It's certainly possible that the Giants return to fighting game script, but I think that's more likely to be something they do while winning. With the Saints likely to be pass-heavy on the other side, it's hard to see the Giants playing things like they did in bad weather against the Titans. Their passing volume floor looks pretty solid here.

This means Isaiah Likely is set up nicely as well. Likely is coming off his most productive game of the season, while, ironically, seeing his lowest first-read target rate of the year.

As I laid out last week, though, Likely was a big-time positive regression candidate. After last week, he doesn't look that way from a fantasy points perspective. But he's still likely to improve on his 6.0 YPT over the course of the season. The simplest way to put it is that Likely's 30% target share remains worth betting on. He's a high-end TE1.

Behind Likely, Darnell Mooney and Malachi Fields are around 70-75% route participation. This WR depth is a key reason for Likely's massive target share. Neither WR has shown much.

The Saints are favored in this game, but the Giants are at home and are just 1.5-point underdogs. It's very possible they play from ahead. And in that script, I'm a lot less confident we get Giants pass volume. If I had a chance to salt a game away against this run defense, I think I'd take it.

The Giants aren't leaning on Cam Skattebo as much as hoped, but he remains the clear lead RB here.

Najee Harris is mixing in enough to hurt, though.

And Tyrone Tracy has started to see work again.

Skattebo has run consistently, but shown very little burst. And with a reduced target share and a weak grip on goal line work, Skattebo—once a high-value touch dominator—has become a bit of a TRAP back. He's a low-end RB2 as a bet on the matchup.

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Bears at Falcons, 1 PM

Bears

Implied Team Total: 26.25

Caleb Williams is set to make his return to the lineup this week. Obviously, he's a huge improvement on Tyson Bagent and Case Keenum. If there was any doubt about that, Bagent reminded us last week against the Packers, turning in -7.7 EPA, which was QB25 on the week.

Bagent's efficiency would likely have been even worse if Case Keenum hadn't replaced him, quickly racking up -6.8 EPA.

Meanwhile, Williams absolutely nuked in Week 1.

Williams then followed up with a weak performance against the Vikings. When Williams hurt his hamstring with 7:42 left in the 4th, the Bears were down 6-3. They would eventually lose 9-3.

There's quite a bit of additional context here, though. On the play he pulled his hamstring on, Williams looked like he was about to run in a TD. That alone would have boosted his efficiency. And even as is, Williams' performance, in retrospect, isn't really that bad.

Through five weeks, Williams is the only QB to hit a 25th+ percentile in EPA per play against the Vikings.

He's also been by far the most efficient QB against the Pathers so far.

There was quite a swing between Williams' first two starts. But through two games, Williams' efficiency looks very strong, and his return represents a huge boost for the offense.

However, Williams' style of play puts a big emphasis on his health. Williams' time to throw of 3.70 seconds is, by far, the longest in the NFL. And he also has the lowest first-read attempt rate (31%) in the NFL. Williams is improvising out there.

For NFL QBs, improvising can sometimes be a pejorative. But there are levels to the craft. Malik Willis is improvising like Michael Scott; Caleb Williams, like Steve Carrell.

One question this week, though, is whether Williams is healthy enough to play effectively on the run. If not, it could be a frustrating return. The Falcons defense has played well this year, with a surprisingly effective pass rush. If Williams is limited by his hamstring, he may struggle to evade this defense.

Another question, though, is whether Williams can simply play a bit more like a normal QB. And there, we pretty clearly have an answer—yes. Williams is unlikely to ever be a truly traditional QB, but he's in genuine outlier territory right now.

Williams led the league with a 3.24-second time to throw last year. Holding the ball is part of how he plays, but also... he can speed up by nearly half a second and still be at last year's league-low level. Similarly, Williams was at a 53% first-read attempt rate last year, ninth lowest. He can maintain his current style while still dramatically increasing from his current 31% mark there.

To hit his true ceiling, it would probably be helpful for Williams to be able to run around frequently and effectively. But Williams can clearly be more traditional than he's been in 2026 so far. There's also a chance that Williams is truly back to full health here. He's practiced in full all week.

And by the way, while the Falcons defense poses a challenge, this isn't a defense that faced an especially difficult QB schedule so far. This looks like a solid defense, but this is not an especially worrying matchup.

For Luther Burden, Williams return isn't the only piece of good news. He also gets a Falcons defense that hasn't been using much double coverage. Last week, Burden faced a Packers defense that sold out to take him away.

Rome Odunze also dealt with a ton of attention, although as an outside deep threat, that is typically his lot in life.

Burden hasn't been as consistently productive as drafters were hoping, but he does profile as the No. 1 WR in Chicago, showing a consistent ability to draw targets. With Williams back in the lineup, he's a low-end WR2.

Odunze's role comes with plenty of routes but is light on targets, although he would certainly benefit from less double coverage. So far this season, Chris Olave (31%) has seen the highest double coverage rate against the Falcons, with Matthew Golden (25%), Christian Watson (22%), Tetairoa McMillan (22%), Zay Flowers (20%), Jalen Coker (12%), D.K. Metcalf (10%), Michael Pittman (8%), and Rashod Bateman (0%) all at 25% or lower.

Preseason hopes for an Odunze breakout seem deeply misplaced, but he can still capitalize on a QB upgrade and more single coverage. Odunze is a WR3.

Helpfully, Kalif Raymond's role in the offense has dropped off in recent weeks. I still expect him to be a thorn in Burden and Odunze's sides, but he was threatening to be a legitimately relevant fantasy option, and that wave appears to have crested, at least.

Raymond is a dart throw.

Colston Loveland's usage spiked in Week 4, but he wasn't able to convert his targets into a big fantasy day. His targets then dried up against the Packers.

Loveland has been producing like a barely relevant fantasy player. And, without doubt, his role is very disappointing. However, he's also been very inefficient on his targets. That's likely to turn around. Loveland posted an 8.5 YPT last year. This year's 5.0 mark isn't going to hold.

As we'll get to, the Falcons are likely to operate with a clear lean to the run this week. If this game is competitive, that could reduce the number of possessions. But this game still has a strong likelihood of being fun.

As we saw last week, Ben Johnson is pretty committed to trying to win games, which you absolutely love to see. With Bagent and Keenum struggling to keep pace with the Packers, the Bears continued to pass.

When things have been more on the rails, the Bears have typically operated with a lean to the run.

But they haven't gotten carried away with the run this year. Outside of Bagent's first start, they've had a lean to the pass on 1st-and-10, and were genuinely pass-heavy against the Eagles.

The Bears are looking to stay balanced to facilitate an efficient offense. Even without Williams, they weren't truly hiding the passing game. With him back, they are even less likely to do that.

The Falcons have also been solid against the run. This isn't a matchup that sets the Bears up to be overly conservative, even if the Falcons attack on the ground.

In fact, the Falcons have been a pass funnel this year, with teams passing aggressively and playing fast. And while the Bears prefer to operate with a lean to the run, they are playing fast.

The Bears' balanced style also has potential to generate passing efficiency. Specifically, they should be able to take advantage of the Falcons' lack of success against play action. The best you can say for the Falcons is that they haven't seen a ton of play action this year. But that is likely to change this week, and the Falcons inefficiency against it is a red flag for their defense.

For Loveland, there's clear upside here for the Bears to pass efficiently while operating with run/pass versatility. And even with the Falcons likely to lean on the run... they have Bijan Robinson. They can still put up points that way, and these offenses can still push each other, as reflected in this game's 51.5-point total. Despite his disappointing start, I'm treating Loveland as a TE1 here.

On the ground, D'Andre Swift is likely to lead the way again, with Kyle Monangai recovering from turf toe.

However, Monangai missed last week, and yet, looking at Swift's usage, you wouldn't know it.

Roschon Johnson played a bunch last week, but primarily as a pass catcher. If the Bears play from ahead this week, as expected, it should be a much better setup for Swift.

Swift's efficiency hasn't been great, but he's been solid. He's set up for a strong workload here and is a low-end RB1 if Monangai misses another game.

If Monangai returns, which at this point looks unlikely, he will impact Swift's rushing workload. Monangai has run very well this year and has seen solid usage. Monangai is an RB4 if he suits up, with Swift falling to a low-end RB2.

Falcons

Implied Team Total: 24.75

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