Quick Slant: MNF - The King is Dead, Long Live the King
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
“The king is dead; long live the king.”
It’s a wonderful sentence, on its face absurd – a juxtaposition of grammatical opposites, a paradox paired to break ground on something strangely profound. Credited to the accession of Charles VII in 1422, it powerfully distills the man's mortality and the office's permanence.
Flash forward to 2025. The Chiefs have worn the crown and grown weary. Age has chipped away. A once-stellar supporting cast has faded, replaced by mediocre impostors. The NFL moved on. Kansas City didn't – saddlemakers hanging bridles in the windows while Model-Ts chugged by. Two safeties deep; that was it – all it took to bring the immovable object to its knees.
And yet they kept winning. Of course they did. The tricks were old. Everybody knew where the rabbit was coming from. It didn’t matter. The Chiefs just kept winning when they shouldn't. Mahomes had that je ne sais quoi; no other explanation made sense – an irritating quality in a rival.
But this time there was Denver, suddenly very now. Sean Payton had Bo Nix, a vicious defense, and the general glow of a restaurant you can no longer get into because The New York Times just wrote it up. By November, they were 8-2, Kansas City was coming to town, and the cute little renaissance up the road had become something else. The Chiefs weren’t simply being challenged anymore; they were prey.
Above Niagara Falls, the river doesn't look violent as much as hurried. I've stood beside it. The surface races past, casually, quietly. Beneath it, an incomprehensible mass answers to gravity and nothing else. Somewhere downstream is a waterfall. Everybody knows this.
This was Kansas City. November knocked them into the river. Fine. Whatever. They've gotten out of worse. Denver beat them, and the bank got steeper. Dallas. Another loss and the branch went by overhead. Houston. Another, and there weren't any branches. L.A. Soon the playoff math involved three other teams, conference records, and somebody in Cincinnati doing you a favor (the NFL equivalent of asking your ex-wife's new husband for a ride to the airport). Confidence turned to urgency.
Then Mahomes broke. He sat bandaged on the sideline. By Christmas, Kansas City wasn't looking for a way out anymore. It was thinking about the rocks below.
Denver had made it. Glass Joe, Piston Honda, King Hippo, Bald Bull, Soda Popinski, Mr. Sandman, Super Macho Man. All behind them. The newspaper had run. Little Mac was in the box on the left, as always. Everybody knew who went on the right.
Chris Oladokun.
I guess history couldn’t resist a bit. Denver had spent a decade trying to kill Mahomes and, when it finally got down to checkmate in one, the opposing chair sat empty. Oladokun got his Warhol allotment. Kansas City hung around, because apparently dying with dignity was out of the question, but Denver won, 20-13. The division was theirs. The dynasty was finished. Somewhere overhead, THE WORLD IS YOURS crawled across a blimp in cheap gold pixels.
And then it got quiet. The warrior sat on the throne, exhausted, mud dried on his legs, blood black at the joints. His sword hung loose from two fingers like some careless artifact. There had always been another hill, another humiliation, another green light across Long Island Sound. Beat Kansas City. Catch Kansas City. Take the West. Become Kansas City. Done. Here’s your AFC West Champions hat.
It pinched; it itched. By nightfall, it was already annoying. There were no more worlds to conquer. The world was theirs. Funny how much more exciting wanting it had been than having it.
Then, a low rumble. There were challengers already. Of course there were. First in line was an old one – filthy, wounded, apparently insufficiently dead.
Patrick freaking Mahomes, smiling through broken teeth.
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Over/Under: 43.5
By record, the Broncos were 14-3 and the Chiefs 6-11 in 2025; there is no comparison. But using Pythagorean Wins, the Broncos had the most wins over expected and were the NFL’s greatest overachievers; meanwhile, the Chiefs were at the opposite end of the spectrum, with the fewest wins over expected. By Pythagorean wins alone, the Broncos and Chiefs were separated by barely one win.
The markets are on Kansas City at 16-1, compared to Denver at 20-1, to win the Super Bowl, corroborating that there's at least some concern that Denver’s dominance over the AFC West, and Kansas City’s ensuing disappointment, are somewhat of an aberration.
Denver played fast last year at 28.9 seconds to snap from a neutral script (7th), but Kansas City played faster at 28.2 (4th). The Chiefs got off 62 plays per 60 seconds (T-11th), while the Broncos got off 64 (T-1st). Both teams had above-average offenses and defenses based on 2025 EPA per play and EPA per play allowed.
Altogether, this makes for a decent fantasy environment, albeit not a great one.
The game will be played on an 87° night. There was, at least for a while, some concern about rain showers, but those have lessened. The main issue here could be wind.
Wind speeds are expected to be about 13 MPH, with gusts up to 25 MPH. The azimuth of GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium runs NW to SE, and the wind is expected to move N, creating a quartering wind. Wind can adversely affect passing, especially at depth, and a pass-catcher’s ball tracking, as well as long kicks; crosswinds are generally worse than head or tailwinds, with quartering winds in between. As much as I prefer to downplay weather whenever possible, wind could be a factor on Monday. Sometimes, this shows up less as a disaster on the field and more as a scheme change, as coaches may run the ball more or shorten passes.
Chiefs Key Injuries: Based on Saturday’s injury report, it seems like QB Patrick Mahomes (knee), WR Rashee Rice (knee), WR Xavier Worthy (shoulder), DT Chris Jones (calf), CB L’Jarius Sneed (knee), and G Trey Smith (hip) should play. Starting LT Josh Simmons (back) and DB Chamarri Conner (knee) will be out.
Broncos Key Injuries: WR Marvin Mims(foot) is the only notable Broncos player on their injury report and is expected to be a go.
BRONCOS
Implied Team Total: 20.5
In 2025, the Broncos were dead average in offensive EPA per play (0.035, 15th) – 13th in dropback EPA and 16th in rush EPA.
The Broncos were relatively pass-heavy, posting +1.5% PROE.
The Broncos’ QB is Bo Nix, entering his third season. With a fast pace, a high pass rate, and good ball control, the Broncos called 37 pass plays per 60 minutes in 2025 (T-3rd). Nix had 39.4 dropbacks/G (2nd) and 36 pass attempts/G (1st).
Nix was borderline inefficient as a passer, ranking 19th in EPA/CPOE composite (0.106), despite a relatively low aDOT at 7.1 (T-21st). With the high pass volume, this still amounted to the fifth-highest air yards/G (266.1).
Fortunately, Nix comes with a medium-high rushing component. He managed 3.86 FP/G on rushes in 2025 (11th). Nix’s pressure-to-sack rate was just 10.1% (2nd), manifesting in only 22 sacks all year. Technically, Nix came in a little under expectations with TDs, but reliable TD regression usually doesn’t manifest until you get to the edge cases, and he’s not quite there.
The Chiefs’ defense was slightly above average in EPA per play allowed (-0.008), with slightly positive dropback and rush EPA allowed.
The Chiefs’ defense has not had massive personnel shakeups. The biggest loss was CB Trent McDuffie, who goes to the Rams; the Chiefs responded by bringing back CB L’Jarius Sneed and drafting CB Mansoor Delane with a top-ten pick.
In 2025, the Chiefs played zone defense 28.4% of the time (11th) and two-high safeties 42.0% (3rd). Like most teams, their primary coverage was Cover 3 (25.8%), but relative to league averages, they ran more Cover 4 (17.9%, 9th) and Cover 0 (7.6%, 2nd). This aligns with Kansas City’s aggressive blitz rate (31.3%, 3rd), a DC Steve Spagnolo signature.
According to the Fantasy Points Coverage Matchup tool, Nix should do well against the types and rates of coverage the Chiefs utilize. The tool projects a +10.2% FP/DB upgrade for Nix, one of the week's most significant.
The PFF matchup tool, which is more personnel-based, lists Nix’s matchup as good.
Based on the Chiefs’ last five matchups, dating back to last year, the matchup looks less sterling at 15.8 PPR/G allowed to QBs (25th), but context is important; this sample includes games against Cam Ward and Aidan O’Connell, and several where the Chiefs themselves were not competitive toward the end of the year, resulting in fewer than 30 attempts against.
In the last five games, the Chiefs also surrendered 14.8 rushing yards/G to QBs (20th), a sample that included Justin Herbert and Nix himself.
Denver spent 63% of 2025 in 11-personnel (11th). Last year, three-WR sets mostly included Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and eventually Pat Bryant. Sutton was the clear team WR1, earning 120 targets and a 19.6% target share (T-31st). Sutton was able to finish as a league WR2 in gross PPR (16th), which was driven my massive participation. Sutton finished in the 92nd percentile in snaps/G (57.4) and 97th percentile in routes/G (36.9).
This spring, the Broncos added WR Jaylen Waddle, essentially trading a first- and third-round pick, a meaningful investment. This gives the Broncos two very strong WRs with multiple upside indicators. Waddle seems more likely to take the lead role. He’s a better target earner – 86th percentile in TPRR (26%), compared to 22% (57th percentile) for Sutton – and he is efficient without as much dependency on TDs as Sutton has.
In two-WR sets, Sutton and Waddle should get the lion’s share of the snaps, along with TEs Evan Engram and Adam Trautman, but in three-WR sets, I would expect Bryant to emerge as a third. Bryant had a few flashes as a rookie, and he’s received raves all offseason. There isn’t much in the numbers to reveal Bryant as a big difference-maker, but he’s young.
This likely relegates WR Troy Franklin, second on the team in targets last year, to the fourth WR, and Marvin Mims to the fifth. This gives the Broncos an incredibly deep and talented stable of WRs.
Evan Engram was practically invisible last year in his first year in Denver, ranking 34th in PPR/G among all TEs. He can’t be relied on, although he, like any TE, could score a TD and have a relevant week.
According to the Fantasy Points Coverage Matchup tool, Sutton draws a favorable matchup (+7.3%), and Bryant (-0.2%) and Engram (-5.3%) draw unfavorable ones (Waddle is not included as a new member of the Broncos). According to PFF’s tool, Waddle, Sutton, and Bryant all draw fair matchups, while Engram draws a good matchup.
In their last five games, the Chiefs have surrendered 28.2 PPG to WRs (26th).
And they’ve surrendered 10.1 to TEs (22nd).
The same story applies to pass-catchers as to QBs; the Chiefs faced Ward and O’Connell, and the last three games were post-Mahomes, when the team was soft-tanking and protecting its future.
The Broncos are a good pass-blocking unit in terms of PrROE allowed, but the Chiefs are also good at generating PrROE, so pass-blocking is a wash. Based on 2025 adj. YBC/Att vs. adj. YBC/Att. Allowed, the Broncos should carry a slight advantage in the running game while on offense.
The Broncos have a muddled offensive backfield coming into the season. JK Dobbins provides the veteran leadership; he has demonstrated little passing-game upside. The upside indicators all belong to RJ Harvey, who was a bit of an HVT machine last year.
Harvey’s HVT % was 31.6% last year (3rd); he only trailed Kenneth Gainwell and Christian McCaffrey.
This bodes well. A second-year RB with this type of usage is what we would normally seek. What does not bode well is that Harvey is also a regression candidate based on TDs per Yd, where he scored almost 5.5 TDOE.
Dobbins is an effective runner, ranking fifth in MFT/G (3.1) and T-11th in rushing FPOE per attempt (0.09), but he has a non-existent HVT profile, landing in the 24th percentile in HVTs/G (2.2) and the third percentile (yep, that’s 3/100) in HVT %.
Another thing that complicates the Broncos’ backfield is that it spent fourth-round draft capital on RB Jonah Coleman out of Washington, who profiles as a bit of a Dobbins starter kit.
This is purely guesswork, but my instinct is that the Broncos don’t think much of Harvey as a runner and recognize Dobbins’ fragility (he has eight games per season since 2020). Coleman was brought in as a direct replacement for Dobbins, either as a short-term handcuff or, eventually, to take over.
But I do think Harvey brings something a little different to the table, and that may still be valuable in some way. Will it be 12-TDs kind of good? Probably not. But it wouldn’t be utterly surprising if we look back in January and Harvey was the most fantasy-productive RB in 2026.
The Chiefs gave up 21.4 PPR/G to RBs in their last five games last year (16th). Again, the final 3.5 of those were after Mahomes’ season-ender, so it stands to reason the Chiefs weren't putting their best foot forward, enticing opponents into mercy. The Chiefs allowed 27.8 rushing attempts per game during that span (3rd) and 100 rushing yards (16th). They actually held defenses to 3.6 YPC (25th), so they were decent at stopping the run; teams just ran a lot.
