Quick Slant: SNF - Choose Your Shade of Blue
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
I stared at my wife. We didn't say anything, but we spent the next 20 seconds having the same silent conversation: Is this really the best use of this $80? I smiled gently. She caught it and grimaced back.
"We doing this?"
"We're doing it."
We chucked the blackout curtains into the basket.
Skittering to the line, I became self-aware again. Every pair of eyes that crossed my path, I wondered if they'd noticed the star on my hat.
It was 2014, and this was the first time I'd worn Cowboys gear in public since moving to New Jersey, a state uniquely positioned between the Eagles and Giants. The sandwich-board scene from Die Hard with a Vengeance came to mind. Was somebody going to push me into a puddle? Rear-naked choke? Maybe an exaggerated tripping motion followed by 32 ounces of fountain Pepsi across my chest?
My wife and I had moved because she started school in Manhattan. Somehow it seemed more economical and adventurous to sell anything that wouldn't fit inside our Elantra and just leave. We landed in a 512-square-foot loft – cute, but empty. Bed Bath & Beyond was our first stop; Best Buy, Home Depot, and Kohl’s were sure to follow. I chose to wear my hat.
Listen. I was born at Presbyterian Hospital off Walnut Hill. I knew probably 75% of the 1985 roster. I met Dexter Clinkscale as a kid, got an autographed picture, inspiring handwritten letters to more football players asking for more autographed pictures (Herschel Walker and Roger Staubach obliged). One of my earliest core memories is crying because my grandmother wouldn't turn on the Cowboys game, which, of course, was impossible because it was Tuesday.
In July.
Navy and silver ran through my veins. I couldn't help it. It's who I was. And I wasn't going to hide.
I stepped up to the counter. The cashier looked at my hat while she scanned barcode after barcode.
"We gonna win this weekend?"
Record scratch.
Was I speaking to a native Texan? Was she from Garland, I wondered? Irving? The Colony?
"Are you from there?" I asked.
"No." She pointed toward the front door, as though I could see all the way down the Garden State Parkway toward 5. "Clifton." Then, I heard the accent – saw the pink fingernail polish, gold jewelry, the perm – pure Snooki. "My dad liked them, so I grew up with them," she said, stuffing my pillows in an oversized sack.
I was confused. Part of me was comforted. I knew almost for certain this woman wouldn't get on the walkie-talkie that surely existed – the one connecting all Giants fans in town – to alert the others that I was leaving the store.
And yet, I was offended. This was my team. I'd put in the time. Thirty-four years. I used to pretend I was Tony Hill catching passes from Danny White in the backyard in Plano. I wore a full Hutch replica uniform, sans shoulder pads and helmet, to school. Did I mention I met Dexter Clinkscale?
This person lived within a 50-minute Amtrak ride of the Jets, Giants, and Eagles. And yet, she went across the country to culturally appropriate my football team? This caused mild discomfort.
As I loaded the floor rugs into the trunk, a small family caught my eye.
"How about those Cowboys?" they said, smiling. The oldest daughter held a fist in the air; the dad had a hat just like mine.
I whispered under my breath as I turned away.
"It's how 'bout them Cowboys."
A few days later, I was on my first job. Somewhere after asking whether everybody in Texas walked around with holstered guns like Tombstone, we got to the Cowboys. One of the eight was a Cowboys fan from Camden, basically in the shadow of the Ben Franklin Bridge. Apparently, "it's a thing." Some latched on during the Staubach-Landry '70s; their kids fell for the Triplets and Jimmy Johnson. Another resented New York's condescension toward New Jersey while deeming it good enough to host their football stadium. Another's dad went to Pitt. Tony Dorsett – enough said.
But that resistance only amplified others' hostility. Tribalism eats its young; resentment bred resentment between the factions, growing over time until it was as deep as the Hudson Valley. Once, walking near the shipyards in Red Hook, a man saw my hat.
"You should just die," he plainly stated, tugging on his stogie, never looking back.
In the Northeast, you love the Cowboys, or you hate them; there is no in-between. Nobody in Montclair is neutral. East Orange. Newark. Not in Greenpoint, Washington Heights, or Astoria either.
The Pope came to town, and that did it. Taylor Swift did New Year's Rockin' Eve one year, and that did it. The Stanley Cup Finals. The Mets in the World Series. The Macy’s Parade. They all put a buzz in the air – an energy. Like John Lennon and George Harrison had climbed out of their graves and the Beatles were playing one last show at the Garden.
And one Sunday each fall, a football team that could barely be geographically further does it, too. There is no neutral. When it comes to the Giants and the Cowboys, you choose your shade of blue.
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Giants
Over/Under: 48.5
Last year, the Cowboys and Giants each had losing records; they were also in the bottom half of the league in Pythagorean Wins, a wins-over-replacement formula based on points for and points against.
Each team was above average in EPA per play but below average in EPA per play allowed. For the Cowboys, this was highly exaggerated, as they ranked fifth in offensive EPA and 31st in defensive EPA. This is sort of a magical combination for fantasy purposes, because it creates a snowball effect that keeps an offense constantly chasing points – in the Cowboys’ case, and to a lesser extent, the Giants’, an offense that is good enough to score them.
The Cowboys retained their coach, leaned into the positives, and decided they were close enough to make a run for the Super Bowl by shoring up their defense. The Giants decided to move on from HC Brian Daboll and land on potential future Hall of Famer John Harbaugh, a longtime advocate of smashmouth football, who will likely reshape everything.
In their own ways, each team is reinvented and may not resemble its 2025 self. Both have long odds to win a Super Bowl: 25-1 for the Cowboys and 60-1 for the Giants. And yet, it does feel like either team – or both – could surprise us. When Harbaugh’s brother took on the hapless Chargers in 2024, they were instantly playoff-viable. And the Cowboys have toiled to emphasize defense all spring and summer, which feels like it might just work.
The weather in New Jersey is expected to be perfect Sunday night and shouldn’t be a factor.
Cowboys Key Injuries: G Tyler Smith (thumb) is on IR, and this should be the game's biggest injury; some consider Smith the best OG in football. Backup RB Malik Davis (hip) is slated to hit the IR after an injury in practice. Depth TE Luke Schoonmaker had a personal issue earlier this week but should play.
Giants’ Key Injuries: A few depth pieces are on IR or PUP and won’t play – most notably perhaps DT Roy Robertson-Harris (Achilles) and WR Calvin Austin III (knee). The Giants have two huge names on their injury report; technically, WR Malik Nabers (knee) is listed as questionable, although he practiced fully all week. Star LT Andrew Thomas (knee) also participated all week and is off the injury report; his absences have impacted the team in the past, so this is excellent news. TE Theo Johnson (shoulder) and FB Patrick Ricard (toe) are also expected to play.
DALLAS COWBOYS
Implied Team Total: 25.5
The Cowboys were well above average as both a passing and running unit based on EPA per play, finishing fifth in dropback EPA (+0.177) and eighth in rush EPA (-0.008).
The Cowboys were second-fastest in neutral-script seconds to snap (27.8), trailing only their former longtime OC Kellen Moore. They were tied for the league lead in plays per 60 minutes (64). They were almost perfectly balanced in terms of PROE (-0.9%), but often played from deficits, which led to a 58% pass rate (T-8th). Combined with the pace of play, this amounted to the third-most passing plays per 60 minutes (37th), tying three other teams.
Therefore, it is of almost no surprise whatsoever that QB Dak Prescott ranked second in total dropbacks (657) and pass attempts (600). Prescott was reasonably effective as a passer, posting above-league-average EPA per play and CPOE.
Prescott is no longer a runner, though, finishing 2025 in the 35th percentile in rush Yds/G (10.4, 25th). As such, even though he finished in the top five in both passing yards (4552, 3rd) and TDs (30, 4th), he was only fantasy’s QB9 in PPR/G.
The Giants’ defense ranked dead last in rush EPA allowed (-0.109) and below average in dropback EPA allowed (-0.088, T-19th).
But the Giants are under new management, and John Harbaugh’s teams are almost always great defensively. During his entire Baltimore campaign from 2008-2025, Harbaugh’s teams allowed 19.4 PPG (1st) and finished in the top three nine times.
They are also talented. Since GM Joe Schoen’s arrival in 2022, the Giants have spent nine top-100 NFL draft picks on defense, including four first-rounders: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Deonte Banks, Abdul Carter, and Arvell Reese.
From a veteran standpoint, it’s hard to say that the overall talent has increased; DT Dexter Lawrence, whom they traded to Cincinnati, is often considered one of the absolute best. But the Giants have gone about the business of rebuilding the defense in Harbaugh’s image, adding 330-lb. run-stuffer D.J. Reader in Lawrence’s place, drafting Reese with a top-five pick, and pairing him with FA MLB Tremaine Edmunds. This gives the Giants two unusually tall, big off-ball LBs for the modern NFL. The emphasis on getting bigger through the middle matches Harbaugh’s M.O. going all the way back to his earliest days in Baltimore.
DC and DPC Dennard Wilson comes over from Tennessee. With less talented personnel, Wilson’s defenses ranked just 26th in EPA per play allowed. Last year, the Titans ran zone on 75.7% of plays (10th), and two-high safeties at a rate of 54.4% (8th). As with most teams, the Titans used Cover 3 most (29.9%), but they used Cover 4 third-most (22.3%) and Cover 6 ninth-most (11.9%). They blitzed at a below-average rate (20.5%).
Against the types and rates of coverage the Giants used last year, Prescott would have an advantageous matchup; the Fantasy Points matchup tool expects a 7.1% increase in FP/G. Based on PFF’s more personnel-based model, which may matter more given all the coaching changes in New York this year, the matchup is considered fair.
The Giants finished 2025 pretty hot against fantasy QBs, holding opposing signal-callers to 24th in FP allowed, including a Week 18 appointment with Prescott (although Dallas shut him down at halftime in a meaningless game). With that, only QB Drake Maye represented a chance to face a great QB during that stretch.
The Cowboys had one of the best one-two punches at WR last year in George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, who each had over a 21% target share. In the Cowboys’ productive pass offense, this amounted to a combined 244 targets.
Lamb suffered a high-ankle sprain early in Week 3 and missed three games, coming back a little earlier than most expected. It is fair to wonder if Lamb’s production suffered as he played through injury and played beneath expectations.
In games where Lamb earned even one reception (a calibration made to include the Bears’ game, where he left early), Pickens outperformed his PPR scoring by 62.7%, with increases of at least 11% in targets, receptions, yards, and TDs.
The Cowboys were in the 87th percentile for 11-personnel usage last season (66.4%). When they deploy this alignment, expect them to use Pickens and Lamb wide and WR Ryan Flournoy, who was extended this past week, in the slot.
Flournoy is an interesting sleeper, ranking 15th in PFF offensive grade, 13th in 1Ds/RR, and 22nd in FP/RR. It’s hard to see Flournoy doing a lot without an absence from another pass-catcher, as he only commands a 9.8% target share. But he can play well from other alignments and is a stellar WR handcuff. But of course, we can’t start him here in Week 1, with everyone healthy.
Against the style of defense the Giants ran last season, Pickens would see a meaningful upgrade according to Fantasy Points’ matchup tool, which has him with a +13.6% matchup score. Flournoy would also see a 7.7% upgrade in their model. In PFF’s more personnel-based model, all three WRs would have neutral matchups. Based on FP allowed in their last five games last year, the matchup is relatively neutral.
The Cowboys’ other most significant pass-catcher a year ago was TE Jake Ferguson. Ferguson finished as the TE9 in PPR/G, but his season was bifurcated at the midseason mark; before Week 8, Ferguson was on fire, but he cooled dramatically toward the season’s end.
Ferguson is also one of the more significant negative regression candidates based on TDs per Yd, having scored eight receiving TDs (3rd) while amassing only 600 receiving yards (13th).
Fantasy Points and PFF’s matchup tools have Ferguson’s matchup pretty neutral, while the Giants were able to hold opponents to just 9.4 PF/G allowed (25th) over their last five games in 2018.
Based on 2025, the Cowboys would have a neutral matchup based on PrROE and PrROE allowed. Of course, this assumes Smith at OG for Dallas, and it assumes a front seven that has undergone massive changes in New York. It is highly conceivable that the Giants will get pressure on Sunday. Even still, Prescott has been a cool customer under pressure, with only a 23.2-point delta in his QB rating under pressure vs. from a clean pocket.
As for how they stop the run, the Giants' dynamics may have slightly worsened, as Lawrence is a tremendous force clogging the middle under center. The Cowboys would have a massive advantage in run blocking based on where they left off last year. Still, Smith’s absence will be significant; Reader is nothing if not huge, and as mentioned, the Giants will be bigger at MLB.
RB Javonte Williams was one of the most surprising players in fantasy in 2025, emerging from a tenth-round ADP to finish as the RB12 overall in PPR/G. Williams’ success was largely driven by opportunity; Williams had an 88th-percentile snap share (68%), earning a Kryen Williamsy 15.8 ATTs/G (9th) and 2.88 TGTs/G (19th).
His ground involvement should theoretically get no worse in 2026 if he stays healthy; the Cowboys signed Williams to an extension, cut Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah, and then Davis hurt his hip and hit the IR. Israel Abanikanda has been elevated from the practice squad, but he isn't expected to contribute much; the primary backup would likely be Emari Demercado.
The problem is with Williams’ receiving, and to be clear, we don’t know what will happen. I worry Demercado could be more than just a backup and may take some receiving work from Williams, whose YPRR (0.4) was in the ninth percentile and rec FPOE/G (-1.54) ranked dead last among RBs with at least 200 opportunities. The blunt fact is that, while Williams was targeted at a decent rate, he was horribly inefficient. Demercado isn’t an incredible force in the passing game, but he logged better TPRR, YPRR, rec 1Ds/RR, and rec FPOE/G; per route, he is a better receiver.
Now, there are other considerations, of course. The Cowboys may prefer to buck the slight advantage of having Demercado on the field to reduce the chances their personnel becomes a tell. It’s just something to keep an eye on. Williams doesn’t earn much of his FP from receiving, but it does comprise about 25%, or 3.79 FP/G. Even a reduction in a portion of that would meaningfully kneecap Williams’ already difficult pathway to the positional apex.
As a runner, I would expect little to no change to Williams’ workload, and if the Cowboys can control this script as road favorites, Williams has a great chance for a large and effective rushing workload on Sunday.
The Giants did finish 2025 well, holding opposing RBs to 18 FP/G over their last five games (26th). Their worst showing, interestingly enough, was against Dallas in Week 18, when Williams was held out and Blue and Mafah combined for 82 rushing yards and two TDs in an inconsequential victory.
