Quick Slant: SNF - Fifty-Three Ravens Descend On Atlanta
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
FROM THE JOURNAL OF EDGAR ALLAN POE
October, 2026
Atlanta. The name was familiar to me, though scarcely the place. I remembered a small railroad town in Georgia. Whatever has occurred here since, it has been considerable.
With no better idea of what to do, I began walking. The streets reminded me of New York (although it had many tall buildings that reached to the heavens): the odors of the body, alcohol, and cooked meats. But the clothing was peculiar. Grown men wore short trousers. Women wore tight ones and shirts resembling undergarments. Students wore their hair long upon the crown and back, yet strangely short along the sides. One teenager had a small silver weight that passed through the partition of her nose, terminating in a ball at either end.
The first carriage I encountered had no horse before it. Nor did the second. They moved freely through the streets, trailing an odor something like naphtha, and one passed with enough rhythmic thunder to rattle the windows. Nobody so much as looked up.
Presently, another stopped beside me. Its driver stepped out and, using perhaps half the words necessary, indicated that he had come for me. I could think of no compelling reason not to go.
I have yet to determine what propels the thing. Its acceleration, at least initially, seemed miraculous.
We traveled three miles in forty-seven minutes.
I reconsidered.
My driver played a species of music consisting of spoken poetic meter laid upon an energetic rhythm. I understood perhaps half the words. Those I did seemed coarse, but the ingenuity was undeniable.
He eventually deposited me in an enormous building and asked me to give him stars. I believe he may have been drinking absinthe.
Glass doors opened of their own accord. A staircase carried me upward into the most extraordinary market I have ever seen. Whole Foods contained forty kinds of cheese, twenty kinds of apples, shelves of something called “vitamins” and “protein powders” – one of which was selected by perhaps an off-duty circus strongman in a shirt with no sleeves, cut loosely, as to reveal his nipples – some paradox of vegetarian meat, milk containing no milk, and water transported from Fiji. Each appeared to cost two months' rent. I selected an apple.
At the register, a woman with blue hair and tattoos refused my coins but informed me that I might use Apple Pay. I explained that I was indeed attempting to pay for the apple. She repeated that I might use Apple Pay.
This continued until she explained that I must hold a small device called a phone against the register. I informed her that I possessed neither such a device nor any desire to strike the register with one.
We reached an impasse. I left hungry.
Outside, Atlanta was hot and oppressive for October. Inside, the air was somehow cool and dry. I followed several people into a small box. The doors closed, my bowels shifted, and we shot upward. Nobody else seemed interested.
Twenty seconds later, I stood forty floors above the earth. From the window, people moved like ants below me. Beyond them stood a massive, jagged structure. A sign announced that Baltimore would be there tonight. But how?
I determined to investigate. But first, coffee.
Downstairs, I found a café where a merciful young man understood the meaning of “black.” While waiting, I noticed a young woman operating a small illuminated box. Beside her stood an enormous drinking vessel, the size of a flower vase, bearing the name of a man named Stanley. I lifted it to investigate its purpose. She did not appreciate this.
Eventually, she calmed, allowing me to inquire about the illuminated box. She explained an abstract thing called “Internet”: every newspaper, library, scientific journal, and map accessible through it. There was even something called Goodreads, where strangers discussed the shortcomings of books and their authors. I would have liked to have remained there for some time.
Instead, I proceeded toward the jagged structure. Near something called Underground Atlanta, I passed a woman who appeared to wear my likeness upon her breast. Recognizing the impossibility in this, I reasoned the likeness a coincidence and kept my eyes forward.
As I resumed my walk, I began seeing black and red everywhere. Apparently, these people had pledged themselves to something called the Falcons. Outside the enormous structure stood a monstrous scowling bird wrought in metal. Then I saw the signs:
BALTIMORE RAVENS AT ATLANTA FALCONS.
Baltimore. Ravens. I approached a man and asked how many Ravens were coming.
“Fifty-three,” he said.
I decided to remain. The doors opened, and I followed the crowd inside. As many people as would populate an entire large city had gathered beneath an artificial sky to watch the Falcons of Atlanta do battle with the Ravens of Baltimore. There was music. Fire erupted from the ground. The crowd screamed enough to shake the place.
I understood almost none of it. Still, for the first time since my arrival, I felt something resembling home.
I purchased a beer. They accepted cash.
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Over/Under: 43.5
The public perception favors the Ravens, who are +800 (2nd) to win the Super Bowl, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, while the Falcons are +5500, near the middle. However, while the Ravens rank higher, the two teams are closer together in Pythagorean Wins, each in the top half of the league.
The Ravens have been well above average in EPA per play, but only slightly above average in EPA per play allowed. Their tendencies are all based on a healthy QB Lamar Jackson, so his absence will almost certainly change everything at the team level.
The Falcons are below average in EPA per play, but above average in EPA per play allowed, so they skew defensive and end up in the quadrant that is least productive for fantasy. The easy assumption is that the Falcons’ season has been bifurcated by the presence or absence of QB Michael Penix Jr. (and backup QB Tua Tagovailoa), who missed the first two games, leading them to an 0-2 start. However, the same tendencies persist when Weeks 3 and 4 are isolated.
Both teams run inherently slow at the line, pacing below average in seconds to snap from a neutral script – the Ravens at 29.4 (24th) and the Falcons at 30.7 (29th). The Falcons manage 62 plays per 60 minutes (14th), while the Ravens manage 60 (T-18th).
Weather: Monday’s game will be played indoors at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, eliminating any weather concerns.
Ravens Key Injuries: Baltimore has ruled out Jackson (ankle), leaving QB Tyler Huntley to start against Atlanta. Starting ED Trey Hendrickson (finger) is also out, along with newly-acquired C Cam Jurgens (concussion). WR Zay Flowers (foot) is questionable after practicing on a limited basis all week. Starting CB Marlon Humphrey (hamstring/calf) is questionable after returning to limited participation Friday, while G Andrew Vorhees (foot) is also questionable. WR Rashod Bateman (shoulder), TE Mark Andrews (hand), and S Kyle Hamilton (groin) fully practiced Friday and carry no injury designations. C Ethan Pocic (knee) remains on IR, further limiting Baltimore's OL depth.
Falcons Key Injuries: Starting LT Jake Matthews (groin) is questionable after progressing to full participation Friday. Starting ED Za'Darius Smith (concussion/neck), ED Samson Ebukam (hamstring), and LB Divine Deablo (hamstring) are also questionable. Starting CB A.J. Terrell Jr. (groin) and ED Jalon Walker (knee) remain on IR. Atlanta has no significant injury designations among its starting fantasy-relevant QB/RB/WR/TE players.
RAVENS
Implied Team Total: 20
The Ravens offense has been above average in EPA per dropback and EPA per rush and has been one of the NFL's most effective offenses. Obviously, without Jackson, all bets are off. The Ravens will turn to a familiar backup in Huntley.
It’s quirky trivia that Huntley was amusingly a member of the 2023 Pro Bowl team, despite only six starts, 658 yards, two passing TDs, three INTs, 137 rushing yards, and one rushing TD. Huntley may be the foremost icon of the Pro Bowl selection’s brokenness over the last few decades, culminating in the NFL’s recent decision to forgo the actual game in perpetuity.
The Ravens have been largely run-heavy at -5.9% PROE (26th), even with Jackson playing. It's reasonable to assume they'll lean even more on the run without him.
In his Pro-Bowl season, Huntley attempted 18.2 passes per game, but averaged 7.2 rushes. A whopping 37.7% of his fantasy production that year came from rushing, and he was not an effective passer (-0.11 passing EPA). These are tendencies that largely persisted through five games and two starts last year (37.7% rushing FP share, +0.06 EPA) while Jackson was injured. Over his seven-year career, Huntley has never had a positive total FPOE.
If the Ravens lean into the run, they’ll be forced to challenge Atlanta where they are best. The Falcons rank first in EPA per rush allowed (-.307).
This has made the Falcons the NFL’s most significant pass funnel by a wide margin. In sheer play volume, the Falcons have faced the second-most dropbacks (187), trailing only the Lions.
Like most teams, the Falcons use zone more than man, but they use man at a 23.5% rate (10th). They use single-high safety on 63.6% of their plays (4th). Cover 3 is by far their most common alignment, which they use 40.1% of the time (7th). They seldom blitz at 16.6%.
The Falcons’ defense is banged up, missing two edge rushers, a starting QB, and an LB, but their backups continue to perform admirably. From a fantasy standpoint, the Falcons have been an exploitable matchup for fantasy QBs, who have averaged 22.5 FP/G (7th) over their last five games, dating back to last year. This is driven by 24.7 EP/G (1st) and just -2.2 FPOE/G (23rd), underscoring that the surrendered production is tied more to being a pass funnel than to poor pass defense per play.
Over that same five-game span, the Falcons have been tough on QB rushing, allowing only 7.6 rushing yards per game (29th), although they haven’t faced the most mobile set of QBs.
The Ravens’ targets have filtered through three primary receivers this year: TE Mark Andrews (24), Zay Flowers (21), and Rashod Bateman (15).
Bateman’s involvement has increased because rookie WR Ja’Kobi Lane, who started the season ahead in the rotation, was quickly injured in the first game and placed on IR, and WR Zay Flowers missed one game with a minor hamstring injury.
Flowers' injury, which cost him Week 2, is almost certainly the only reason Andrews leads the team in gross targets, as his target share is 28.4% compared to Andrews’ 22.9%, and Flowers leads the NFL in TPRR (40%). Flowers has been electric when he’s played, ranking in the top five in FP/RR (1.27, 1st), rec yards (117.3, 4th), rec 1Ds (4.67, 5th), 1Ds/RR (26.4%, 1st), PFF receiving grade (91.1, 3rd), and not only leading the league in TPRR, but also YPRR (6.29). With health to him and Jackson, Flowers would likely be in the running for fantasy’s top wideout, but expectations must be tempered if he's paired with a QB who could easily get fewer than 20 pass attempts.
Andrews has been serviceable with a 29% TPRR (T-4th) and 1.69 YPRR (11th). However, even with attrition among the Ravens’ pass-catchers, Andrews has only 83 total routes (T-22nd). He’s startable, but he’d need greater volume to return to his once-great status as one of fantasy’s top TEs.
Baltimore uses 11 personnel 47% (26th), 12 personnel 36% (4th), and 13 personnel 17% (5th). Generally, in 11, Bateman, WR Chris Moore, and WR Devontez Walker share time out wide, and Flowers mans the slot at 63.3%. Flowers’ gross routes are considerably lower because of his absence in Week 2 and a slower ramp-up back into game action; he’s been unbelievably productive whenever he’s gotten onto the field. In 12, TEs Durham Smythe and Matthew Hibner rotate through, but Andrews moves to the slot and even out wide plenty. For fantasy purposes, only Andrews, Flowers, and Bateman warrant rostering, and only Andrews and Flowers warrant starting in most leagues most weeks.
Only Bateman and Andrews have run enough routes to qualify for the Fantasy Points coverage matchup tool. According to their model, which primarily analyzes the types and rates of coverage the opposition uses, Bateman is expected to get a slight upgrade. In contrast, Andrews is expected to get a downgrade.
According to PFF’s more personnel-based matchup model, the Falcons’ matchup grades out as great for Flowers and fair for Bateman and Andrews.
Based on their last five games, dating back to last season, the Falcons have allowed 36.8 FP/G to WRs (6th) and 41.7 EP/G (1st). The wide disparity between EP and FPOE again underscores the Falcons’ identity as an imbalanced pass funnel. WRs aren't crushing Atlanta play by play, but Teams see attacking through the pass as the best option.
Flowers is the primary fantasy player of interest, and he spends 2/3 of his time in the slot. The Falcons have faced 206 slot routes (2nd), allowed just the 16th-most yards (242), the 23rd-highest first-read target percentage (77.8%), the 27th-highest TPRR (22%), and the 29th-most YPRR (1.17) to the slot, so they’ve been pretty stout per play. On the other hand, they haven’t played against someone like Flowers yet.
The Falcons have surrendered 14.5 PPR/G to TEs in their last five games, dating back to last season. Against TE, this has been far less volume-based, and the Falcons have held their own in stifling efficiency.
Of course, the far greater issue for any Ravens pass-catcher is Huntley at QB, which will inevitably reduce volume and efficiency across the board.
Huntley could be under pressure on Sunday night; based on the Ravens’ pass rush over expected allowed and the Falcons’ PrROE generated, the Falcons’ front has an advantage on Ravens’ dropbacks.
Oddly, Huntley’s QB rating was actually higher under pressure than when kept clean last year. This wasn't the case in larger sample sizes in 2022, and in 2021, not that this is expected. The Falcons have only allowed nine total yards on QB scrambles all year (1st).
When former HC John Harbaugh had to reckon with Huntley subbing for Jackson, he leaned even more into the running game (which is saying something, since he was already the most run-heavy HC in football from 2018 to 2025). Huntley returned to Baltimore last season and played in three games with at least ten passing attempts alongside RB Derrick Henry; the splits were eye-popping, with Henry rushing nearly ten more times for 50 more yards and over a full TD more per game.
Henry leads the NFL in carries per game (22.2), ranks sixth in FPOE/G (4.45), and leads the league in Rush EP/G (15.8). The offense definitely runs through him; 42% of the Ravens’ team opps go to Henry (T-4th). Henry moves the chains, is active at the goal line, and sheds contact, as usual; he also earns just 12.56% of his total fantasy points through the air (46th). This is an established pattern, of course. For years, Henry’s upside has been capped by his lack of passing-game involvement, but he’s consistently healthy, highly involved, efficient on the ground, and dependably scores TDs. Since 2022, Henry has been first, second, or third in rush EP/G.
Again, running against Atlanta means running directly into the best aspect of their defense. Based on a composite of the Ravens’ adj. YBC/Att generated and the Falcons’ adj. YBC/Att allowed, the matchup heavily favors the Falcons’ run defenders up front.
PFF’s matchup tool grades Henry’s matchup as good. Dating back to last year, the Falcons have allowed 17.6 FP/G to RBs (25th) in their last five games, holding teams to -3.8 FPOE (26th).
The Ravens’ offensive line has also faced injury setbacks. They already have three OL on IR; they will play Sunday night without Andrew Vorhees and newly acquired C Cam Jurgens, who was brought in to stop the bleeding but is in concussion protocol. Meanwhile, LT Ronnie Stanley and LG John Simpson, who are expected to play, are fighting through ailments.
Henry has scored over four TDs over expectation based on TDs per yard, relative to the mean. As such, he already jumps out as a possible negative TD regression candidate.
While Henry typically carries a higher TD rate than most RBs, his 7.9% 2026 rate is still the highest of any season in his career.
The Ravens are a tough eval this week. Henry has had huge games with limited QBs like Malik Willis and Huntley (including a 216-yard, four-TD game last year). But without Jackson, Baltimore’s offensive strength runs directly into Atlanta’s defensive strength.
We’d assume no one is more aware than Atlanta DPC Jeff Ulbrich that the Ravens want to feature Henry, and the Falcons may be able to slow him, if not stop him. To attack Atlanta where it’s most vulnerable, Baltimore would need to move the sticks with Huntley, which seems dicey.
For the Ravens, a reasonable blueprint for success might resemble what the Bucs schemed up for QB Jalon Daniels on Thursday. But there’s a good chance this game is slow and low-scoring, and even if Henry is prominently featured, he may get a larger piece of a smaller pie. That could provide a decent floor without much ceiling.
Of course, none of this means you should sit Henry in managed leagues. He could also be unstoppable, as he is prone to be, and just go bananas.