Quick Slant: SNF - Hammer, Meet Nail
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
November 23, 2025, four days before Thanksgiving. It’s 20-9 with 8:43 remaining. The Colts have led all day. They enter 8-2, their record dragging lukewarm preseason expectations toward the realization that Indianapolis might be among the AFC’s best. Kansas City had long held that distinction, but now stands as a crumbling façade at 5-5, its season on the brink.
Patrick Mahomes stands in shotgun, flanked by TEs. The snap. He turns right and hands off to Kareem Hunt, offering him to a stagnant wall of blockers and defenders. Hunt pops off both feet like Dick Fosbury, elbows protruding from his neck like a goiter, then falls through the mass with surprisingly little resistance. Mahomes finds Rashee Rice between two defenders for the conversion. Rice launches the ball thirty feet skyward, then slams facemasks with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. 20-17.
Flash forward: 4:34 remaining. Mahomes stands in his own end zone, dotting the “I” in Chiefs. The snap. He slices the air to his one o’clock, firing into Rice’s outstretched arms as he clears a defender in zone coverage. Rice sprints, sheds a tackle, sprints, sheds another, and is forced out 47 yards later.
Fourth down. Rice again, doing his best LeSean McCoy, cutting right and leaving his defender twisting alone like Kyrie crossed him over. Rice runs a languid crescent around him before white shirts arrive. The offense stalls. Harrison Butker ties it as the clock strikes zero.
Overtime. Mahomes zips one from third to first along the left hash to Xavier Worthy, who spins inward, catches it, and bounces off the earth near midfield. Moments later, Rice splits a zone, secures another catch, and slides. Check. Ground and pound. Butker. Checkmate.
Through ten games, the Colts had slaved at the loom: shuttle, beat, shuttle, beat, drawing each stubborn row tight. With 8:43 remaining, Kansas City found a thread and pulled. The unraveling didn’t stop at triple zeroes in overtime. Indianapolis lost seven straight, falling from 8-2 to 8-9 and out of the playoffs.
But once, it was the Colts who frustrated the Chiefs. For a generation, Indianapolis was the monster under Kansas City’s bed. In 1995, Jim Harbaugh, the QB we knew before the coach, led the scrappy Wild Card Colts past the top-seeded Chiefs at Arrowhead. In 2003, Peyton Manning arrived, played an entire playoff game without requiring a punter, and spoiled another 13-3 season. Three years later, Indianapolis stepped on Kansas City 23-8 en route to its first Super Bowl victory since Johnny Unitas wore the horseshoe. In 2013, Andrew Luck overcame a 28-point deficit to win a 45-44 classic.
The Chiefs of the last decade have felt inevitable against Indy. Their fans once understood that relationship the other way around. The Colts were certain, and the Chiefs jilted.
On November 23, the Chiefs won, sending the Colts into a death spiral; they took a winning record. It was the last good day. Neither team would win another game all year. For the Colts, it was a sad end to a promising season. The crash stung because of how high they’d climbed.
For Kansas City? It felt like the death of the telegraph. Mahomes and Reid had made the city a hub for offensive invention. But over the past few years, the machinery sputtered and backfired, the idle grew rougher, and finally, it died on the road.
Then came an idea: bring in Kenneth Walker. Hand him the football.
Week 1 against Denver: 23 carries, 173 rushing yards, two total TDs, including a 60-yard score on fourth-and-1. A 31-10 win over the division incumbent. After years trying to renovate their post-Hill offense while the league caught up, the Chiefs invented the hammer. So far, it seems to be working.
Of course, Indianapolis has its own hammer. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 1,585 yards and 18 TDs in 2025, then opened 2026 with 98 yards and two scores.
The difference? The Colts arrive having surrendered 41 points and 506 yards to Baltimore, including 163 rushing yards and three TDs to Derrick Henry.
Hammer, meet nail.
Still, each Sunday, the league hits reset. Week 2 has a funny way of reminding us that what we’ve observed is written in dry erase, not chiseled in stone. And in this understated rivalry, nobody holds the hammer forever.
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Over/Under: 46.5
In 2025, based on Pythagorean Wins, the Chiefs and Colts were two of the four unluckiest teams in football.
Following last week’s beatdown of a 2025 semifinalist, the Chiefs have moved into the top six in Super Bowl odds (+1400). The Colts languish nearer to the bottom at +7500.
Last year, the Chiefs were above average in both offensive and defensive EPA, while the Colts were above average on offense and average on defense.
The Chiefs were fast at the line a year ago, snapping the ball at an average of 28.2 seconds per snap from a neutral script (4th). The Colts were closer to league average (29.9). The Chiefs got off 62 offensive plays per 60 minutes (T-11th), while the Colts got off 59, which was below average.
Strong winds and thunderstorms are expected in Kansas City on Sunday, but it looks as if it will clear up just before game time. By 7 p.m. local time, the rain should stop, the temperature will settle around 73°, and a north wind around 8 mph should remain, making for pleasant game-time conditions.
Colts Key Injuries: The Colts have a few injuries, but none are very fantasy-relevant: WR Ashton Dulin (out, ankle) and RB D.J. Giddens (questionable, knee) are listed on the report; no fantasy GM is likely playing either.
Chiefs Key Injuries: LT Josh Simmons (back) is out; Simmons should anchor Mahomes’ blindside when healthy, though his absence wasn’t critical in Week 1. S Chamarri Conner (knee) is out again as well, same as last week. The Chiefs get increasingly thin if rookie top-ten pick CB Monsoor Delane (shoulder) can’t go; officially questionable, he began the week practicing and was downgraded later, which is usually a bad sign. Perhaps the most significant injury for the Chiefs is DT Chris Jones (calf), listed as questionable. He put in limited practices all week, and there is optimism he could play.
COLTS
Implied Team Total: 20
The Colts were one of the most efficient offenses in football in 2025 at 0.083 EPA per play (7th). They were above league average in dropback EPA per play and best in the NFL in rush EPA per play.
Technically, the Colts leaned slightly toward the run last year at -0.9% PROE, although against league base rates, they were slightly pass-heavy.
QB Daniel Jones had 32.9 dropbacks/G (23rd) and 29.5 passing attempts/G (21st) in 2025. Traditionally, Jones has been a scrambler, but he was only in the 51st percentile in 2025. His rushing TD rate was 11.1% (2nd), driving up his rushing FP/G (3.57, 14th).
As a thrower, Jones had a 0.22 EPA/CPOE composite (7th). He tore his Achilles in Week 14 and missed the final four games.
Up until that point, Jones was a major reclamation story; just this side of Sam Darnold, perhaps no QB had come back from the brink of total bust status to prove they were still worthy of a chair more than Jones. And while Jonathan Taylor was the Colts’ chalkier MVP candidate entering Week 12 last year, Jones’ odds were at least on the board at 11th.
The Chiefs haven’t undergone a wholesale defensive renovation, although losing CB Trent McDuffie to the Rams is not nothing. Kansas City responded by bringing back an old friend in CB L’Jarius Sneed and spending a top-ten pick on CB Mansoor Delane, who is questionable.
DC Steve Spagnuolo remains one of the league’s more aggressive play-callers, blitzing 31.3% of the time in 2025 (3rd).
The Chiefs also played Cover 0 at the league’s second-highest rate (7.6%). Kansas City deployed two-high safeties 42.0% of the time (3rd), with Cover 3 as its primary coverage (25.8%) and a healthy dose of Cover 4 (17.9%, 9th). Overall, the Chiefs played zone 28.4% of the time (11th).
The results were respectable, if not overwhelming. Kansas City finished slightly above average in EPA/play allowed (-0.008), with slightly positive EPA allowed against both the run and the pass.
According to the Fantasy Points’ Coverage Matchup tool, Daniel Jones receives an expected 3.8% bump in his normal fantasy production based on the types and rates of coverage the Chiefs employ.
The PFF matchup tool, which is more personnel-based, has Jones’ matchup graded as fair.
In their last five games, dating back to last year, the Chiefs have been stellar, allowing 13.5 FP/G to QBs (29th), though this isn’t the strongest set of foes. In Week 1, they stymied Denver’s Bo Nix for a single-digit fantasy output.
Theoretically, if Jones, Delane, and Conner all miss the game, the Chiefs’ defense may be compromised.
The Colts’ leading target earner in 2025 was WR Michael Pittman Jr., who is now in Pittsburgh. WR Alec Pierce received an unexpectedly large contract extension, but has battled injuries all offseason. He will play, but he is still likely recovering.
There was some optimism for WR Josh Downs to play more in two-receiver sets with Pittman exported. In Week 1, Downs had a 78.8% slot percentage and only seven snaps out wide, but the Colts ran 11-personnel at 75.5% (2nd). The Colts were also fighting a negative game script in Week 1, so we didn’t learn much.
WR Keenan Allen played 26 snaps wide, and Dulin played 10 before exiting with an injury that will keep him out again on Monday. Allen’s usage could ramp up as he acclimates after signing late this offseason. The point is: we just don’t know if Downs will be a full-time WR yet. However, there were encouraging signs, including Downs leading the team in routes (29), with the caveat that Pierce left the game for medical attention. The bad news for Downs is that he still lagged behind Allen, Pierce, and Warren in target share (12.9%) and had an underwhelming 14% TPRR.
Based on the types and rates of coverage the Chiefs use, Warren’s matchup is more positive than negative, according to Fantasy Points’ matchup tool, while Downs’ and Pierce’s are more unfavorable.
According to PFF’s matchup tool, Allen’s and Warren’s matchups grade as good, while Pierce’s and Downs’ grade as fair.
In their last five games, the Chiefs have allowed just 20.6 FP/G to WRs, the lowest total against any team during that time.
They will be without Conner and possibly Delane, but they were, for the most part, a week ago when they held the Broncos’ vaunted WR trio to a paltry 13 total PPR points.
Against TEs, the Chiefs have been more permissive in their last five games, dating back to t last year.
Warren seems like the best option among the pass-catchers. He ranked fourth in TE Apex Score to start the season, finishing in the top seven in three of the four stats that go into the Apex Score calculation, as well as first-read targets/G (3rd).
Additionally, Warren is a borderline positive regression candidate, scoring over two TDs below expectation in 2025, based on TDs per yard. Really, regression is more pronounced on the fringes, so any reversion to the mean would be slight.
Of course, the engine that makes the Indy offense go brr may be Taylor. Taylor led the NFL in carries/G (19), first-downs per game (4.94), YACo/G (66.8), and rushing EP/G (12.4), and he finished in the top 10 in several other stats, including three that go into Apex Score calculation.
Taylor scored nearly six TDOE based on TDs per yard, most in the league, making him a significant negative TD regression candidate.
PFF grades Taylor's matchup as good. Over their last five games, the Chiefs have been a threat to opposing RBs, allowing just 18.8 PPR/G (24th), a sample that includes Omarion Hampton and Ashton Jeanty.
On the road with a depleted pass-catcher corps, and with the Chiefs potentially without Jones up front, the rushing matchup seems exploitable for Taylor.