Quick Slant: SNF - Resurrections
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
The Bucs arrived in Arlington, Texas, dead on arrival. 2026 began with optimism, but four games had transformed Tampa from division contenders to cellar dwellers. QB Baker Mayfield was sidelined with a thumb injury, replaced by a UDFA. Dreams of banners and rings had shifted to visions of Jeremiah Smith or Trinidad Chambliss in crimson and pewter.
With backup QB Jalon Daniels, the Bucs played like a service academy in Arlington that day. Their defense showed up and contained the vaunted Cowboys’ offense, holding them to 16, much like they’d held Green Bay to 17 a week earlier. Daniels did just enough; RB Bucky Irving scooted for 165. Still, many saw the result more as a reversion to Dallas's reliable disappointment rather than Tampa Bay's scrappy resilience.
Meanwhile, the Panthers had come off the blocks fast. The normally forgiving division already looked hopeless. Another Week 6 loss only flung more dirt onto Tampa's grave.
And then? The Undertaker GIF. The Phoenix passing through death and into new life. Or, if I may reach for a pirate metaphor, the Dread Pirate Roberts, formerly Westley, mostly dead and helpless beneath the blade of cowardly Prince Humperdinck, suddenly rising, extending his steel, and commanding, “Drop your sword.”
In the past two weeks, the Bucs have won twice, handily. Their stellar defense has become the norm. Mayfield is back, and so is star WR Emeka Egbuka. But mostly, they've become something else, something new and far more formidable. While Mayfield was away, they inadvertently discovered who they were meant to be all along: a smashmouth juggernaut. Last week, famously, they annihilated an opponent without completing a forward pass.
Today, the division is within reach. The Bucs have renewed hope and a clear path ahead. There will be obstacles, perhaps none more imposing than Sunday night's, but with their dominant, old-school, bully identity, who could deny that Tampa Bay could beat anyone on any given Sunday?
The Bears, though, are impressive. As far back as spring, the suspicion was that they'd be offensively unstoppable but defensively weak. That hasn't been the case. They've been a complete team, and they can't be cornered. No matter where a game takes them, they still have an out. They can't be pinned down.
And for Chicago? They're living the same story as Tampa, extrapolated over 20 years.
They haven't been resurrected suddenly, like a phoenix. If they were a literary character, they'd be Rip Van Winkle. For two decades, they've been lost. Their fans turned their attention to the championships of the Blackhawks and Cubs. Unholy mismanagement seemed perpetually married to impossibly bad luck, and fans slipped into a state of unceasing resignation that misfortune was their brand.
The Bears’ resurrection began with a trade that netted extra firsts, including the number one pick and a chance to draft an automatic QB prospect in Caleb Williams. Then it hit its stride with the hiring of HC Ben Johnson, to the league's envy. Now they're riding in fifth gear, their destiny emerging from a long, dense fog. On the horizon is a glory long elusive.
Two destinies converge Sunday night. Two former division rivals from the old NFC Central, each pursuing something potentially special that, in its best form, ends beneath a banner. Either outcome seems plausible, making Sunday a significant chapter in a potentially great story.
But there's a catch. Every step one takes toward its long-awaited ending is a step the other must surrender. For Tampa especially, another step back on Sunday could equal real doom. But a step forward against the Bears would serve as arrival – an Agincourt implying legitimacy.
For the Bears, a win against the Bucs is a chance to prove themselves against another archetype and demonstrate yet another type of out. More importantly, it would keep the chessboard set for a seemingly inevitable late-season scramble with their three bunkmates in football's hardest division.
Both teams feel they’ve spent enough time being someone else’s good news, but that’s the thing about second chances: they still have to be earned.
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Over/Under: 47.5
Chicago ranks eighth in offensive EPA per play (0.066) and 11th in defensive EPA per play (-0.032). Tampa Bay has struggled offensively, averaging -0.091 EPA per play (28th), but has been considerably better defensively, allowing -0.148 EPA per play (2nd).
Chicago ranks fourth in Pythagorean Wins (pacing for 10.9), while Tampa Bay ranks ninth (pacing for 9.9). The Bears are pacing for 13 actual wins, outperforming their underlying expectation by 1.8 wins. Conversely, Tampa Bay is pacing for just six, falling 3.5 wins short of expectation.
Chicago plays at a slightly slower pace from a neutral script, averaging 29.1 seconds per snap, with Tampa Bay at 29.0. Across all game scripts, however, Chicago plays considerably faster (27.5 seconds per snap) than Tampa Bay (29.0), averaging 72 plays per 60 minutes compared to Tampa Bay's 61.
Weather: Sunday evening at Soldier Field in Chicago should be clear and cool. Temperatures should be around 50° at kickoff, falling into the upper 40s by the fourth quarter. Winds are forecast from the west at around 7 MPH, with little chance of rain. Conditions are unlikely to affect the game significantly.
Buccaneers Key Injuries: Starting WR Emeka Egbuka (foot) is questionable after missing Wednesday's practice but participating fully Thursday and Friday. He is expected to play. Starting ED Yaya Diaby (knee) has been ruled out after missing practice all week. Starting T Tristan Wirfs (toe) was limited Friday but carries no game designation. QB Baker Mayfield (thumb), RB Bucky Irving (rest), WR Chris Godwin (rest), RB Kenneth Gainwell (hip), TE Cade Otton (thumb), and starting G Cody Mauch (back) carry no game designations and are expected to play.
Bears Key Injuries: RB Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) is questionable after missing Wednesday and Thursday's practices before returning on a limited basis Friday. He has missed the last four games. Starting CB Tyrique Stevenson (thumb) and CB Malik Muhammad (toe) are questionable. Starting T Theo Benedet (shoulder), DT Grady Jarrett (groin), and LB D'Marco Jackson (ankle) practiced fully on Friday and carry no game designations.
BUCCANEERS
Implied Team Total: 20.5
Tampa Bay has struggled offensively, ranking 28ᵗʰ in EPA per play (-0.091). The Buccaneers rank 30ᵗʰ in dropback EPA (-0.151) but have been considerably better rushing the ball, ranking seventh in EPA per rush (-0.023).
Tampa Bay has been the NFL's second-most run-oriented team relative to expectation, ranking 31ˢᵗ in PROE (-9.99%). In Week 8, the Buccaneers attempted just three passes and completed none.
QB Baker Mayfield has struggled through Week 8, completing 68 of 110 passes for 679 YDs, three TDs, and two INTs. He has averaged just 22 pass attempts/G (T-32ⁿᵈ) and 26.8 dropbacks/G (32ⁿᵈ), producing 135.8 passing YDs/G (34ᵗʰ). His 173.4 air YDs/G rank 32ⁿᵈ, although his 9.0-yard aDOT is tied for ninth.
Mayfield has been equally ineffective from an efficiency standpoint. His EPA per play (-0.194) ranks 35ᵗʰ, with a CPOE of -0.93%. He has generated positive EPA on just 38.4% of his dropbacks (35ᵗʰ), while his passing grade (60.6) ranks T-26ᵗʰ.
Mayfield has averaged 3.2 rushing attempts/G (18ᵗʰ), producing 16 rushing YDs/G (13ᵗʰ) and 2.8 rushing FP/G (13ᵗʰ). His overall fantasy production has been poor, averaging 12.5 EP/G (32ⁿᵈ) and underperforming expectation by 1.28 FPOE/G (25ᵗʰ). His provisional Apex Score of 3.89 ranks 31ˢᵗ of 35 QBs.
The Bears defense has been surprisingly good relative to preseason expectations, allowing -0.105 EPA per dropback (12th) and -0.106 EPA per rush (13th), ranking 11ᵗʰ overall in defensive EPA per play (-0.032).
Opponents have passed on 65.1% of plays against Chicago, the fourth-highest rate in the league, meaning the Bears are a pass funnel defense.
However, because the Bears' defensive efficiency has been slightly better against the run, their pass-heavy opposition hasn't been driven by an especially favorable passing matchup. The Bears’ 452 plays from a lead are by far the most in the NFL, dwarfing even second-place Green Bay (367), suggesting this pattern stems from opponents needing to throw to catch up while playing from a deficit.
Chicago plays zone more than not but uses man at a relatively high 30.3% rate (6th). The Bears use single-high safeties on 53.8% of plays (11th). Cover 3 is their most common alignment (28.8%), followed by Cover 1 (24.2%). They blitz at a 32.2% rate (8th).
Fantasy Points' Coverage Matchup tool projects a slight advantage for Mayfield against Chicago's coverage tendencies, giving him an expected +1.7% upgrade in FP/DB (0.32). The PFF Matchup tool grades the assignment as fair.
Over their last five games, the Bears have allowed 21.6 PPR/G to QBs (5ᵗʰ), surrendering just 15.4 EP/G (30ᵗʰ). Opposing QBs have generated 6.2 FPOE/G (3ʳᵈ), suggesting Chicago has allowed unusually efficient fantasy production despite relatively modest expected opportunities.
Chicago recently traded for All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons, one of the most well-rounded and effective interior down linemen in the game, and in his season debut last week, Simmons was already a significant difference-maker, recording three pressures, a sack, two hurries, a batted ball, and three stops on 55 defensive snaps, and the Bears creamed the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks 34-17. With a player like Simmons now in tow, the Bears should only get better defensively.
Over their last five games, WR Emeka Egbuka (29) has led Tampa Bay in targets, followed by WR Chris Godwin (24). No one else has more than 11 targets during that time.
Egbuka has been Tampa Bay's most-targeted WR, with a 25.13% target share (13ᵗʰ), 8.17 targets/G (T-13ᵗʰ), and 7.33 first-read targets/G (15ᵗʰ). His 24% TPRR (T-27ᵗʰ) has been solid, although his 1.11 YPRR (T-59ᵗʰ) has been disappointing. Egbuka has averaged 13.5 EP/G (16ᵗʰ), but his -1.6 FPOE/G (70ᵗʰ) reflects his struggles to convert those opportunities into fantasy production.
Godwin has been less involved, with a 17.95% target share (35ᵗʰ), 4.25 targets/G (58ᵗʰ), and 3.62 first-read targets/G (T-51ˢᵗ). His 1.06 YPRR (63ʳᵈ) and 17% TPRR (T-56ᵗʰ) have also been poor. Godwin has averaged just 7.36 EP/G (61ˢᵗ), and his -0.725 FPOE/G (55ᵗʰ) has further limited his production. He has not scored a TD this season.
Over their last five games, Chicago has allowed 32.2 PPR/G to WRs (13ᵗʰ), including 27.3 EP/G (24ᵗʰ) and 4.9 FPOE/G (7ᵗʰ). The Bears have allowed relatively modest receiving opportunities, but opposing WRs have been considerably more efficient than expected.
According to Fantasy Points' Coverage Matchup tool, which evaluates how a player has historically performed against the types and rates of coverage his opponent uses, Egbuka is projected for a slight 0.5% downgrade against Chicago's defensive coverages. Godwin receives a 4.4% upgrade.
The more personnel-based PFF Matchup tool rates Egbuka's assignment as good, while Godwin receives a great matchup grade. Godwin has the more favorable individual matchup, although Egbuka's substantially greater target involvement makes him the more appealing fantasy option.
Otton has been on the field, with 78.2% route participation (sixth). However, his 14.36% target share (18ᵗʰ), 3.5 targets/G (T-27ᵗʰ), and 2.88 first-read targets/G (25ᵗʰ) have been ordinary. His 14% TPRR (T-41ˢᵗ) and 0.83 YPRR (T-42ⁿᵈ) have been particularly poor. His limited target involvement and poor receiving efficiency make it difficult to project much fantasy value without an improvement in his role.
Chicago has been relatively effective at limiting TE opportunities. Over their last five games, the Bears have allowed 14.3 PPR/G (17ᵗʰ), including just 11.2 EP/G (26ᵗʰ). However, opposing TEs have produced 3.1 FPOE/G (fourth), suggesting their modest fantasy production has come more from limited opportunity than poor efficiency.
According to Fantasy Points' Coverage Matchup tool, Otton is projected for a 3.4% upgrade against Chicago's defensive coverages. The PFF Matchup tool rates his assignment as fair.
When the Buccaneers have the ball, they could struggle in passing situations, as they have the fifth-worst composite of pressure rate over expectation allowed and PrROE generated by opponents.
Mayfield is relatively unaffected by pressure. He sees only a 16.9 reduction in QB rating under pressure vs. from a clean pocket, the fifth-lowest.
However, the Bucs should have one of the league's most favorable run-blocking matchups, with the third-best composite of adjusted YBC/attempt generated and allowed.
The Buccaneers have gotten excellent rushing production from RB Bucky Irving, whose volume and efficiency have low-key made him one of the league's more productive backs.
Irving is averaging 18.4 carries/G (7th), with a 36% team opportunity share (T-7ᵗʰ). He has also been difficult to bring down, averaging 4 MTF/G (T-5ᵗʰ) and 70.4 YACo/G (4th). His 4.95 YPC (9th) and 0.14 rushing FPOEPA (9th) further illustrate his effectiveness as a runner. Irving's provisional Apex Score of 8.469 ranks fifth among 50 RBs.
His fantasy production has come primarily from rushing, however. Irving has a 47.1% route participation rate (11ᵗʰ percentile), but just 17.58% of his opportunities have qualified as HVTs. His 82.42% LVT rate is among the league's higher marks, leaving him relatively dependent on rushing volume and efficiency. So far, that efficiency has been excellent, producing 2.6 rushing FPOE/G (3rd).
RB Kenneth Gainwell has handled a smaller role, averaging 7.25 carries/G (44ᵗʰ) and accounting for 16% of Tampa Bay's team opportunities (T-45ᵗʰ). He has nevertheless performed well on the ground, averaging 4.98 YPC (8th) with an 82.0 PFF rushing grade (11ᵗʰ). Gainwell's 29.6% route participation (32nd percentile) limits his receiving volume, although receiving production accounts for 45.47% of his fantasy output.
Chicago has done a good job limiting opposing RBs' fantasy production. Over their last five games, the Bears have surrendered just 16.7 PPR/G (29ᵗʰ), including 16.4 EP/G (30ᵗʰ) and 0.4 FPOE/G (15ᵗʰ). The low EP allowance is particularly notable, suggesting that reduced opportunity has been a larger factor than unusually poor efficiency by opposing backs.
Still, the PFF Matchup tool grades both Irving and Gainwell's rushing assignments as good. Gainwell also receives a good receiving matchup, while Irving's is graded fair.
Irving's workload and rushing efficiency should keep him firmly in fantasy lineups despite Chicago's recent success against RBs. Gainwell has been efficient with his opportunities, but his smaller role makes his weekly production considerably less dependable.