Quick Slant: SNF - Seven Weeks
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
On September 13, everything was still possible.
The Eagles had won the Super Bowl in February of 2025, passing Washington in the NFC Championship Game along the way. Philadelphia had shaken up its roster some, but that was nothing new; they often do. The backbone of a champion was still there – still, in the opinion of many, among the most talented rosters in the game, top to bottom.
The Commanders had already done the most difficult thing a team can do – find a QB – when their 2024 first-round pick, Jayden Daniels, won OROY. The 2026 season began with the same optimism as 2025, back before injuries wrecked everything. The chessboard had been reset.
The game was extraordinary; Jalen Hurts threw three TDs, and the Eagles survived when Washington failed on a late two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining. By all appearances, two good teams were just duking it out with so much on the line. Philadelphia eked out the win, but both teams likely left the Linc with warranted optimism.
But that was an up-close look at a solitary object; assumption did the heavy lifting, and through the microscope of a one-game sample, the view was obscured. In the NFL, each week zooms out a little further; the camera booms up and widens out, and the trees do less to obscure the forest.
On September 13, both teams woke up feeling like 2026 could be their year. Seven weeks later, their meeting on Sunday Night Football now has far different stakes: the loser will occupy last place in the NFC East, one of the NFL's worst divisions by record.
The Eagles started 2-0, though both were dogfights – the second an unexpected bath in the crockpot against the lowly Titans. But since? Five straight losses, a QB sidelined indefinitely with potentially life-threatening blood clots, an unexpected retirement from future HOF-er Lane Johnson, and multi-game absences from RB Saquon Barkley, TE Dallas Goedert, and WR DeVonta Smith. Philadelphia has even seemingly packed it in, trading C Cam Jurgens to Baltimore, a clear signal that they recognize the inevitability of their situation. They're 2-5.
The Commanders have had their own injuries: Daniels dislocated his elbow in Week 2, then backup Marcus Mariota went down early in Week 4. WR Terry McLaurin is out for the year, and RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt is on IR. But more than the absences, Washington has discovered new and creative ways to blow it: from an 87-yard TD erased by penalties against Indianapolis, to blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Giants, then inexplicably running out the clock in overtime without attempting a game-winning FG. They're 1-4-1.
Between them, the Eagles and Commanders went winless in October. Five different QBs appeared in seven combined games without producing a victory. Now they're a combined 3–9–1.
Flash forward to November 1: Same opponent, different stakes. A new month will put one team back in the win column. The NFC East is wide open; the Cowboys' defense is a disaster again, and the Giants are down to a reclamation project at QB. It's still early enough that a victory could give either team something to build on, even if their original ambitions are substantially hindered. In some strange way, both teams are still kind of in it.
Could one of them be right back in the mix in another seven weeks? Maybe. But if they are to pull it off, it must begin Sunday Night – one right step – then a grueling campaign to climb from the bottom, scratching and clawing for every inch they can muster. They'll have to give it all they can, and even that may not be quite enough.
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders (-5.5)
Over/Under: 40.5
Philadelphia ranks 28ᵗʰ in Pythagorean Wins, while Washington ranks 27ᵗʰ. Both teams are pacing for fewer than five actual wins, although their underlying performance suggests they have been somewhat better than their records.
Based on EPA per play, both teams have been below average on offense and defense.
Philadelphia plays at a relatively fast pace from a neutral script, averaging 27.4 seconds per snap (6ᵗʰ). Washington is slightly slower, averaging 28.0 seconds (11ᵗʰ). Across all game scripts, Washington averages 62 plays per 60 minutes (T-14ᵗʰ), while Philadelphia averages 59 (T-25ᵗʰ).
Weather: Sunday evening at Northwest Stadium in Landover should be partly cloudy and cool, with little chance of precipitation. Temperatures should be around 50–52° at kickoff, dropping into the upper 40s by the fourth quarter. Winds should be very light, around 1–3 MPH from the southeast. These conditions should have little impact on the game.
Eagles Key Injuries: Starting WRs DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle), starting LB Jihaad Campbell (hamstring/quad), and CB Jonathan Jones (hamstring) have been ruled out after missing practice all week. RB Saquon Barkley (hamstring/back) missed practice Wednesday and Thursday but returned in a limited capacity Friday and carries no designation. TE Dallas Goedert (knee) practiced fully and is cleared to play. QB Jalen Hurts (blood clots), RBs Tank Bigsby (abdomen), Will Shipley (foot), and Dameon Pierce (undisclosed) are all on IR.
Commanders Key Injuries: Starting DTs Javon Kinlaw (knee) and DaRon Payne have been ruled out, while DT Jer’Zhan Newton has been placed on IR. Starting LT Laremy Tunsil (triceps), WR Terry McLaurin (knee), RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin), WR Jaylin Lane (ankle), and starting LB Leo Chenal also remain on IR. WR Treylon Burks (foot) was listed as questionable Friday. QB Jayden Daniels (elbow), QB Marcus Mariota (knee), and WR Stefon Diggs (hand/hamstring) practiced fully and carry no designations.
EAGLES
Implied Team Total: 17.5
The Eagles have been one of the NFL's least effective offenses, ranking 29ᵗʰ in EPA per play (-0.086). They rank 26ᵗʰ in dropback EPA (-0.055) and 21ˢᵗ in EPA per rush (-0.144).
Despite their struggles running the ball, Philadelphia has been slightly more run-oriented than expected, ranking 19ᵗʰ in PROE (-2.27%).
With QB Jalen Hurts sidelined by blood clots, QB Tanner McKee has taken over Philadelphia's offense. Through Week 7, McKee has attempted 80 passes across 86 dropbacks, averaging 40 attempts and 43 dropbacks per game. The volume has been encouraging, although it comes from a small, two-game sample.
McKee has struggled with efficiency, averaging -0.14 EPA per pass, with a 37.9% positive EPA rate. McKee does not qualify for the EPA/CPOE Composite leaderboard, so there is little reason to draw strong conclusions from his limited playing time.
McKee also offers almost nothing as a runner. He has recorded just 2 rushing attempts for 1 yard, averaging 0.05 rushing FP/G.
Washington has been considerably more effective against the run than the pass. The Commanders are allowing 0.145 EPA per dropback and -0.085 EPA per rush, ranking 25ᵗʰ overall in defensive EPA per play (0.067).
Washington plays zone on 74.1% of defensive plays, with a particularly heavy emphasis on two-high safeties (69.6%). Their most common coverages are Cover 2 (22.3%), Cover 3 (21.9%), and Cover 4 (21.5%). They also blitz at 37.0%, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
The Commanders' high blitz rate could create problems for an inexperienced QB, particularly an immobile one.
The PFF Matchup tool, which considers player grades and projected personnel matchups, grades McKee's assignment as poor, despite Washington ranking 26ᵗʰ among defenses in its matchup assessment. This is likely more to do with McKee than Washington.
Over their last five games, the Commanders have allowed 25.3 PPR/G to QBs (4ᵗʰ), surrendering 23.2 EP/G (1ˢᵗ). Opposing QBs have produced 2.1 FPOE/G (8ᵗʰ), suggesting Washington's struggles have come more from the opportunities they've allowed than from unusually efficient production against them.
Their opponents have preferred to pass against Washington rather than run. Washington has a 65.4% pass rate against (5th), making them a pass funnel.
While it would seem like a great place to get the ship right for McKee, it’s still hard to recommend him to fantasy GMs.
With WRs DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks out again, Philadelphia will need more from its remaining pass-catchers. Over their last five games, rookie first-round WR Makai Lemon has led the Eagles with 29 targets, followed by TE Dallas Goedert (24) and WR Darius Cooper (15).
Lemon has played a significant role, running 33.6 routes/G (21ˢᵗ). However, his 16.1% target share (47ᵗʰ) and 4.86 targets/G (T-49ᵗʰ) are underwhelming. Lemon has been particularly ineffective on a per-route basis, ranking 69ᵗʰ in YPRR (0.83) and T-64ᵗʰ in TPRR (15%). His 5.4 aDOT ranks 70ᵗʰ, and he has produced just 7.3 XFP/G (T-62ⁿᵈ). As many feared he would be coming into the league, Lemon has been glued to the slot for 83.3% of his routes.
Cooper has been considerably less involved, with just 2.57 targets/G, an 8.53% target share, and 51.1% route participation. His 1.05 YPRR and 13% TPRR have also been poor. However, he has scored four TDs on just nine receptions, producing 2.41 FPOE/G despite only 4.53 EP/G. His 26.7% rec TD rate is unlikely to be sustainable, particularly without a meaningful increase in opportunity. That time may be now with Smith and Wicks out of the lineup.
Over their last five games, Washington has allowed 37.9 PPR/G to WRs (5ᵗʰ), including 34.9 EP/G (10ᵗʰ) and 3.1 FPOE/G (10ᵗʰ).
According to Fantasy Points' Coverage Matchup tool, which evaluates how a player has historically performed against the types and rates of coverage his opponent uses, Lemon is projected for a 5.7% downgrade against Washington's defensive coverages. Cooper receives a much more substantial 30.5% downgrade.
The more personnel-based PFF Matchup tool rates both assignments as good.
Goedert has been the Eagles' most effective remaining receiving option. He has a 14.69% target share, 5.8 targets/G (8ᵗʰ), and 4.8 first-read targets/G (6ᵗʰ). His 26% TPRR (T-5ᵗʰ) and 1.93 YPRR (T-11ᵗʰ) suggest strong efficiency when he runs routes, although his 58.1% route participation (26ᵗʰ) limits his overall opportunity. Goedert ranks ninth of 45 qualified TEs in provisional Apex Score (7.52).
He has been particularly effective on short-center targets, drawing 2.8 per game (third) and earning a target on 48.3% of his routes in that area (first). With Smith and Wicks out, Goedert could see an even greater share of the passing game.
Washington has struggled against TEs. Over their last five games, the Commanders have allowed 21.1 PPR/G (4ᵗʰ), including 17.5 EP/G (4ᵗʰ) and 3.6 FPOE/G (4ᵗʰ).
According to Fantasy Points' Coverage Matchup tool, Goedert is projected for a 13.5% upgrade against Washington's defensive coverage. The PFF Matchup tool rates his assignment as great. Goedert has the strongest combination of established efficiency, opportunity, and matchup among Philadelphia's remaining pass-catchers and is the best bet for effective fantasy output of this bunch.
In the trenches, the matchup should be pretty even when Philadelphia is pass-blocking, based on their pass-rush over expectation allowed vs. Washington’s pass-rush over expectation generated.
When run blocking, however, the Eagles appear overmatched based on adjusted YBC/Att generated vs. adjusted. The rub, though, is that the Commanders enter this one without their three top DTs, so the statistical basis for that disparity is severely compromised.
Against Washington, the Eagles' RBs face a defense that has allowed plenty of opportunities, but has been relatively effective at limiting production. The PFF Matchup tool grades Barkley's rushing assignment as good. Over their last five games, the Commanders have allowed 21.1 PPR/G to RBs (19ᵗʰ), despite surrendering 24.7 EP/G (5ᵗʰ) and -3.6 FPOE/G (29ᵗʰ). Opposing RBs have received plenty of quality opportunities, but have generally been inefficient.
The Eagles have three RBs on IR, and RB Saquon Barkley has also been banged up. However, Barkley carries no injury designation, and with Philadelphia missing several offensive weapons, they could ask him to shoulder a larger workload. His 8.6 carries/G (41ˢᵗ) and 38% snap share (T-39ᵗʰ) have been surprisingly modest, although his 5.67 YPC ranks second.
Barkley has also been used sparingly as a receiver, running just 6.4 routes/G (48ᵗʰ) with 17.6% route participation (T-46ᵗʰ), which has been the case since he arrived in Philadelphia. His 1.8 targets/G (39ᵗʰ) and 1.2 receptions/G (43ʳᵈ) reflect how little Philadelphia has asked of him in the passing game.
However, Barkley was once considered one of the game's better receiving RBs in New York, and his reduced receiving role has coincided with playing alongside run-oriented QBs Daniel Jones and Hurts. With McKee under center, short completions to Barkley would provide McKee with relatively easy opportunities, particularly with Philadelphia's depleted receiving corps. Washington has been susceptible to RBs through the air, allowing 5.2 receptions/G (6ᵗʰ) and 36.4 receiving YDs/G (13ᵗʰ) to the position. It’s not a far stretch to imagine the Eagles trying to exploit Barkley’s perceived receiving advantage. This could be a sneaky Saquon spot.