Quick Slant: SNF - Shaking Off Old Ghosts, Buying Into Young Saviors
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
Whether they know it or not, Atlanta and Minnesota fans are mutual empaths, bound by similarities they don’t see.
Minnesota is the NFL’s northernmost franchise, nestled among frozen lakes and Midwestern granite hills. Its Twin Cities stand guard over the Mississippi River, their mirrored skyscrapers sprouting from old farmland like overgrown carrots. And in its middle, a great glass cathedral for the great pastime of American football: U.S. Bank Stadium.
Down south, Atlanta is a sprawling set of immense suburbs crowding around a modest set of skyscrapers like teenagers swarming the Beatles. The infrastructure has been carved from pines that grow 90 feet tall, laid out carefully along rolling hills—cousins to the Appalachians. And out of the urban bustle of the streets along the Georgia World Congress Center, there rises a jagged edifice like something out of science fiction, affixed with its massive, familiar logo: Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Both have reckoned with the almost—Super Bowl heartbreaks and flashes of greatness, always ending with empty hands. The Vikings stood beneath someone else’s confetti in four of eight years under Bud Grant; the Falcons were on the wrong end of the largest comeback in Super Bowl history; in Atlanta, 28–3 is shorthand for collapse.
Their crescendo as dance partners was when the 15–1 1998 Vikings, sometimes called the greatest team to never win, sailed a last-second field goal wide right—the first miss of the season for Gary Anderson—and stood helplessly aside as the Falcons donned hats and shirts and booked a trip for Miami.
And so, the fans of the Vikings and Falcons may not think of it, but they are the same. And, just like the other, each team’s fanbase is shaking off old ghosts by buying into a young savior.
In Atlanta, their proposed deliverer is Michael Penix Jr., a southpaw slinger with a Rowengartner arm and the support of a city finally ready to move on from Matt Ryan. In Minnesota, it’s J.J. McCarthy, a kid with a championship pedigree, already tasked with breaking through barriers that Tarkenton never could. Neither is a rookie, but they are green, only now being entrusted with the full weight of their franchises a year after being drafted. Decades in, each fanbase is still looking for a champion, cautiously optimistic that a kid they barely know might somehow break the spell.
Falcons
Implied Team Total: 20.5
The over/under is moderate; each team is middling in Pythagorean wins thus far.
The disparity between the teams in the betting lines reflects two teams that are, in neutrality, largely the same; while playing in Minnesota this week, the Vikings become slight favorites.
Against Tampa Bay in Week 1, the Falcons were relatively quick and accumulated a high volume of plays. Their 76 offensive snaps tied for second. They were pass-heavy agnostic of the situation, but their pass rate over expected (PROE) was slightly run-heavy at -2.3%.
The Falcons were 16th in EPA per play and 13th in offensive success rate, so they were middle of the road in consistency and efficiency. This is coherent with their 2024 EPA per play; their offensive success rate ranked fourth last year.
Based on last year’s pressure rate over expected (PrROE), the Falcons’ offensive line has the 11th-best matchup of any NFL team in Week 2, according to Fantasy Points Data Suite. They also have the 11th-best matchup of the week in adjusted yards before contact per attempt, so their offensive line should have a slightly above-average matchup both as a pass-blocking and a run-blocking unit.
One difference from last year for each team is the absence of a star tackle—for the Falcons, RT Kaleb McGarry (for the Vikings, LT Christian Darrisaw). Both are out with injuries.
In Week 1, sophomore QB Michael Penix Jr. handled pressure pretty well, ranking tenth in QB rating while under duress. He was steady in his effort against Tampa Bay, ranking seventh in success rate and ninth in EPA per play.
Penix created 19 first downs (3rd) in Week 1, and he hit 260 air yards (11th); each is a good correlator to PPR +N1, meaning they predict future fantasy production well. He ranked tied for fifth in Fantasy Points’ XFP (XFP), which is one of the most predictive stats across all positions, as it correlates well to PPR +N1 and the positional apexes. Although a one-game sample couldn’t be smaller, hitting these thresholds is better than not.
Last week, WR Drake London was targeted 15 times (1st), recording a 36% market share (8th). TE Kyle Pitts showed signs of life with a 19% share. WR Darnell Mooney didn’t play, but he has been cleared for Week 2. Expect him to siphon everything WR Casey Washington had last week and more; Washington had 44 routes and a 93.6% route participation, which led the team (he's out this week with a concussion, regardless). London also had a late shoulder injury in Week 1 and had limited practice this week, but he carries no injury designation into Sunday night’s game.
London’s XFP was 28.3 (2nd). He had 102 air yards (13th), 42% TPRR (6th), and 14 first-read targets (1st), all among the better stats for correlating to future fantasy scoring. It’s a small sample, but he was utilized in the slot 12.5% less frequently than a year ago. He ran a rate of 36.1% horizontally breaking routes, pretty much right in line with the 38.8% he ran a year ago. This is all very elite usage and an excellent sign that London’s role, one of the best in the NFL a year ago, will continue in 2025.
Pitts was second on the team in route participation (80.9%) and TPRR (21%). Pitts lined up in the slot for 44.7% of his routes, and out wide for 15.8%. This is relatively consistent with his alignment a year ago. Pitts ranked second in first downs among TEs, tied for fourth in horizontal route breaks, and eighth in XFP after one week. This is a highly encouraging start for anyone who took the plunge on one of the biggest pariahs of the draft season.
In Week 1, the Vikings ran zone on 83.7% of defensive snaps (5th), consistent with last year, when they ran zone 72.5% of the time (8th). Last year, the Vikings ran the highest rate of 2-high/open middle concepts (63.7%), the second-highest rate of 2-high man (5.2%), and the third-highest rate of 2-high zone (24.3%). The only alignment they ran at a higher rate was Cover 3 (24.6%), which is generally the standard formation leaguewide. They also ran the eighth-most Cover 4 (18.4%). The Vikings had the highest blitz rate in the NFL a year ago at 37.3%, according to Pro Football Reference.
Against the types of coverages the Vikings ran last year, the best WR against man and Cover 4 was Drake London, ranking third in each in fantasy points/route. Against Cover 3, Pitts was best, ranking 17th. The Falcons’ pass-catchers were less effective against Cover 2, with only Mooney ranking in the top 50 (48th).
Despite overall effectiveness on offense, the Falcons were actually worst in the league in offensive EPA per rush, surprising based on the fact that RB Bijan Robinson is generally considered one of the best in the league. Robinson himself had the fourth-lowest rush yards over expected (RYOE) in Week 1, according to NextGen Stats.
Primary stats corroborate this, as Robinson and RB Tyler Allgeier each gained fewer than three yards per carry last week. Most likely, this is an anomaly, but it’s something to keep an eye on.
Robinson did receive the third-highest percentage of team snaps and the fifth-highest target share among RBs. His receiving work salvaged Robinson’s fantasy day, as he had the highest market share among RBs, the most receiving yards, and yards after catch (YAC). A year ago, Robinson was second in the NFL in high-value touches, including the third-most targets, so even with poor rushing efficiency, Robinson came away from Week 2 with the third-highest XFP.
The Vikings don’t seem to offer much relief, as they ranked 1st in defensive rush success rate at 19%.
Minnesota surrendered -0.2 schedule-adjusted receiving fantasy points to RBs a year ago, so it should represent a relatively neutral matchup for Robinson in the passing game.