Quick Slant: SNF - The Last Ride
Mat Irby’s Quick Slant
Some moments in life are so joyful that adrenaline steals the details. They blur past as our minds oscillate from oblivion to consciousness and back again. What’s left of sentience is laced with a narcotic sensation and its associated symptoms: racing pulse, uncontrollable smiling, childlike freedom.
These moments often come at night, first as a blitz of noise and motion, then a succession of embraces, laughter, and half-remembered conversations that dissolve into the early morning hours. We often recognize then that one of these moments will be counted among the best of our lives; we want to dwell in them, take residence there, but they're borrowed.
Sleep is elusive. Our hands won’t stop shaking. Euphoria embeds itself under our skin; it’s a romantic encounter we never want to end. We can’t calm. Eventually, hours later, we drift away.
And we wake up stone sober; the dopamine has cycled out of our system. Light fills the sky, a reminder that time marches on. Muscles, once tensed, awaken relaxed. The rapture of sheer ecstasy has been filtered down to salted joy – the afterglow – tranquil, mellow bliss. The sun presses on our skin, or the breeze tousles our hair, completing our almost divine contentment – an utter connectedness to the universe.
When you wake up after winning a Super Bowl, your efforts show in the bruises and scratches on your hands and arms, the tenderness in your hip flexors, the strain in your knees. And yet, amid such fulfillment, none of it hurts as badly as it probably should. You have odd commitments, and none of them bother you, because it’s a pleasure to keep talking about a day that will forever define you as a professional.
This was true for HC Mike Macdonald and RB Kenneth Walker when they sat down together in a van on February 9, 2026, just 12 hours after hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Sure, they reveled in the moment – the lifelong dream they had accomplished together, the knowledge that another violent tackle at the knees was now months away, the fact that an entire fan base was riding the same high and had already immortalized them as heroes.
But they also had quiet conversations about football history, a subject Walker had developed a particular interest in. It was an appropriate way to pass the time, given that the two men had just secured their own small place in it.
The van carried them from their hotel in San Jose toward San Francisco, where another press junket awaited. It was about an hour on the road, a strange little intermission between the chaos of the previous night and the obligations of the coming morning.
And for a while, they even sat in silence, basking in one of their greatest days.
This coming Sunday night, Macdonald and Walker will no doubt greet each other warmly before their next game; only they won’t be wearing the same colors.
Walker signed with the Kansas City Chiefs in the spring, barely a month after achieving immortality with Seattle. It can be a hard business; the numbers frequently cause breakups and turn friends into rivals.
Interestingly enough, Walker’s new team is 5-0, while the defending champs are just 3-3. And Walker leads the NFL in rushing; even if he’s never petty enough to say I told you so, he must feel vindicated by what he’s already proven he can do with a bigger workload.
More importantly, perhaps, for Walker and Macdonald, their place in the story of the NFL is still being written, and their roles in it are yet to be determined. Another generation down the line, the sophisticates who love the sport will speak about history; they’ll speak about them.
But how much of them?
Over the long haul of their time in the league, Sunday might be a footnote, but it’s the kind of game that can flip fortunes and lead one to another ring. In that sense, it may be more important than we realize. After all, history isn't just something to talk about on the ride home. You have to make it on the biggest stages first.
GAME ENVIRONMENT
Kansas City Chiefs at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
Over/Under: 42.5
The Chiefs are 5-0, and the Seahawks are 3-3, which suggests the Chiefs are better. However, according to Power Rankings Guru, the Chiefs have played the third-easiest schedule in the NFL, and based on Pythagorean Wins, both teams are in the mix, with the Chiefs pacing for 12.6 wins (T-1st) and the Seahawks pacing for 10.1 (T-5th).
Just as each is in the top six in Pythagorean wins, they are also in the top six in Super Bowl betting odds, with the Seahawks at +1200 (6th) and the Chiefs at +950 (3rd). Of course, each has a substantial reputation; the Chiefs, as a recent dynasty, are still led by the HC and QB who have won three of the last seven championships, while the Seahawks are defending the crown. Teams with this type of stored-up pedigree will always fare better in betting markets.
Based on EPA per play stats, the Seahawks show up as a very good defense but a suspect offense. By contrast, the Chiefs rank well in both offensive and defensive EPA.
Kansas City is on the faster side, getting plays off in an average of 27.7 seconds from a neutral script (T-8th). Seattle is closer to league average, averaging 28.2 seconds to snap from a neutral script (T-13th). The Chiefs average 60 plays per 60 minutes of gameplay (T-22nd), while the Seahawks average 63 (T-10th).
Weather: There could be mild precipitation throughout the day, with rain chances dropping to about 15% by game time. Wind will be practically nonexistent, at 4 MPH or less with no measurable gusts. The temperature should be around 52° at kickoff, dropping to about 49°. These conditions are pretty much perfect for a football game.
Chiefs Key Injuries: WR Rashee Rice (hamstring/knee) has been ruled out for the third consecutive game after missing practice all week. RB Brashard Smith (hamstring) is also out, while starting RT Jaylon Moore (concussion) has been ruled out after missing all three practices. Starting LT Josh Simmons (back) was placed on IR Thursday, leaving Kansas City without both starting tackles. TE Travis Kelce (ankle) was limited throughout the week but carries no designation, while QB Patrick Mahomes (knee) and starting G Trey Smith (hip) practiced fully. Starting CB L'Jarius Sneed (knee) is questionable after three limited practices. WR Tyquan Thornton (ankle) remains on IR. The depleted offensive line and Rice's continued absence are the primary fantasy concerns.
Seahawks Key Injuries: RB Zach Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out despite practicing fully all week, delaying his return from the ACL injury he suffered in January. RB Emanuel Wilson should continue handling the primary workload. Starting LB Drake Thomas (ankle) has been ruled out for the second consecutive game, with LB Tyrice Knight expected to start in his place. Starting EDs DeMarcus Lawrence (knee) and Uchenna Nwosu (hip) are questionable after limited practices Thursday and Friday, while starting S Nick Emmanwori (hip) is questionable after being added to the report Friday. Starting RG Anthony Bradford (knee) practiced fully Thursday and Friday and is expected to return from IR. WR Rashid Shaheed (hip) practiced fully and carries no designation, while WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (ankle) is off the injury report entirely. TE Elijah Arroyo (shoulder) and RB Jadarian Price (chest) remain sidelined on reserve lists. Seattle's defensive front could be significantly weakened if Lawrence and Nwosu can't play.
CHIEFS
Implied Team Total: 20
The Chiefs offense has been among the best in the NFL, ranking fourth in offensive EPA per play (0.143). They rank above average in dropback EPA (0.175, 9th), but first in EPA per rush (0.099).
Despite their incredible running game, they remain more pass-oriented than their success on the ground might suggest, ranking sixth in the league in PROE (2.97%).
Interestingly, their raw pass rate is just 53% (T-24ᵗʰ). This suggests that the Chiefs have rarely needed to abandon the run, but still make a conscious effort to keep defenses honest rather than relying too heavily on what's working – or, the alternate theory: they just kind of get bored of it. No doubt if the late Dick Vermeil were still HC, Walker would be pacing for 400 touches.
Patrick Mahomes has been good, but he’s not the steam engine that drags the train along against its preference to remain still. Mahomes has had good efficiency – in the top 75th percentile in passing yardage, passing FPOE, and TD rate. He is above average in dropback EPA and CPOE.
It’s only that, with Walker in town, Mahomes isn’t tasked with doing everything by himself. He’s taken just 34.8 dropbacks/G (21st), converting to 31.6 passing attempts/G (T-14th). From a fantasy perspective, this holds back Mahomes’ ceiling as long as it persists.
One thing worth noting on that is that the Chiefs have played a weak schedule, as I mentioned already. This has left them largely unchallenged; they’ve played the fourth-fewest snaps while trailing (174), and the fewest from a deficit of seven or more points (15). This could mean there is another version of the Chiefs out there – a pass-happier, less conservative version that can be drawn in with a more competitive game script. They are underdogs on the road in Seattle so that we might see more opportunity for Mahomes in this game. The question is whether that will translate into fantasy points.
The Seahawks have allowed just 12.5 FP/G to QBs (31st) and 941 passing yards (32nd). They had the league's best defense in 2025 in EPA per play allowed (-0.113) and were fifth in EPA per dropback allowed (-0.065). This year, they trail only the Vikings in EPA per play allowed (-0.116) and EPA per dropback allowed (-0.060). They have a very good pass defense and run defense.
The Seahawks play the most zone in the league (88.7%). They are second in the league in FP/DB from zone (0.26). They also run two-high safeties at 58.7% (6th). Their most common alignments are Cover 3 (32.4%), Cover 4 (17.8%), and Cover 6 (29.1%), the highest Cover 6 rate in the NFL. They maintain a 23.9% blitz rate (22nd).
According to Fantasy Points’ Coverage Matchup tool, which identifies a player's historical tendencies against the types and rates of coverage their opponents use, Mahomes is expected to have a 9.3% downgrade on his normal FP/DB.
According to PFF’s matchup tool, which uses PFF’s proprietary player grades and how often a player is expected to match up against another based on historical usage tendencies, Mahomes’ assignment is considered poor.
Over their last five games, the Seahawks have allowed just 13 FP/G to QBs (30ᵗʰ), including only 16.3 EP/G (28ᵗʰ) and -3.3 FPOE/G (29ᵗʰ). They have been effective at both limiting passing opportunities and preventing opposing QBs from capitalizing on the opportunities they do get.
Mahomes has 10 scrambles this season (T-14th) and earns a 76th-percentile rush FPOE/G (9th), even after a 2025 ACL tear. Seattle has been slightly more vulnerable there, allowing 101 yards and 10.1 FP from scrambles thus far (15th), although this is small-sample stuff, and they commit to so much zone that it's incorrect to consider this a plus matchup for a scrambling QB. Even so, by the numbers, Mahomes is barely above mid, while Seattle is mid; it’s not a big revelation, just a tiny loophole in an otherwise ironclad defensive situation that offers little hope.
The Chiefs will again be without WR Rashee Rice (hamstring/knee), widely regarded as their top pass-catcher entering the season. Rice has been out since early in Week 4 (even in the first three weeks, Rice drew only a 16.3% target share), leaving WR Xavier Worthy to lead the way with a 23.3% target share since Week 4, followed by the immortal one, TE Travis Kelce, who has just a 13.3% target share in that time.
Even in his best year yet, Worthy is flawed. With a 28th-percentile YPRR (1.32) and 46th-percentile TPRR (20%), all of his fantasy production comes from opportunity, and that opportunity comes largely from a lack of options. Worthy has played in five games so far, has barely been a WR2 twice, and has been a disaster twice. Since entering the league as a first-round pick in 2024, he’s scored 20+ fantasy points in a game exactly three times in three seasons.
Playing Worthy is already desperation in most leagues. No other WR here should even tempt us.
Against Seattle, Worthy has to be seen as a poor start, not only because of his own failures, but because the Seahawks’ defense is so stout. According to the Fantasy Points matchup tool, Worthy is expected to be down 17.9% based on the Seahawks' defensive style. PFF’s matchup tool grades Worthy’s matchup as poor. In Seattle’s last five games, they’ve allowed 23.7 PPR/G (29th) and have been stout, allowing only 26.4 EP/G (28th) and -2.7 FPOE/G (25th).
The only other option to consider in the KC passing game is Kelce. For Kelce, the issue is not efficiency; he’s first in YAC/G (39.6), fourth in YPRR (2.43), and third in rec FPOE/G (3.26). Kelce's issue is that he maintains only a 21% TPRR (T-14th), translating to 5.2 targets/G (T-14th), so he hasn’t been the target earner per route that he historically has been, which may just be a product of age (or possibly coincidence).
What may prove more important is the sudden shift in workload in his last game. Kelce’s route participation suddenly plummeted last week, which seems to coincide with an ankle injury Kelce suffered in the first drive against Los Angeles. From Weeks 1-4, Kelce ran routes on 73.9% of dropbacks; in Week 6, that fell to 56.3%, a 23.8% drop.
So there’s no ambiguity: as long as Kelce is earning 14% TPRR and running routes on 56.3% of the dropbacks, he’s not usable in normal-sized home leagues. However, Kelce had three limited practices and carries no injury designation heading into Week 7. If he can return to 70-80% route participation, he’s a back-end TE1 candidate in most games.
Of course, there’s still the Seattle problem. The Seahawks have allowed 8.1 PPR/G to TEs in their last five games, including only 10.9 EP/G (25th) and -2.8 FPOE/G (31st). This sample includes games against Trey McBride and George Kittle.
On the other hand, based on the types and rates of coverage Seattle uses, Kelce has a projected 11.2% increase in his FP/RR, according to Fantasy Points’ coverage model. PFF’s model grades Kelce’s matchup as good.
All things equal, the Chiefs would normally be at a significant disadvantage in pass blocking based on PrROE allowed vs. Seattle’s PrROE generated. Of course, if EDs DeMarcus Lawrence and/or Uchenna Nwosu can’t go, all bets are off there. But recent reporting makes it seem likely they’ll both go.
Mahomes has a reputation as a cool customer for a reason; unsurprisingly, the drop-off in his QB rating while under pressure vs. from a clean pocket is pretty close to league average; of course, in the grand scheme of things, a dip of 44 QB rating points is not nothing, so the very fact that Mahomes will be under pressure more often should still serve to dampen his performance somewhat.
While running the football, Kansas City should not have as much of an issue up front. Based on the amount of adj. YBC/Att Kansas City generates vs. the amount of adj. YBC/Att the Seahawks allow, there is almost no disparity.
RB Kenneth Walker has been inspired and is leading the NFL in rushing (665 Yds). He is currently second in PPR/G among RBs (27.6). Walker is second in the NFL in carries (21.2); he draws a respectable 13.48% target share (T-10th), and he has 6.6 HVTs/G (T-4th), so his opportunity is ample. But Walker is also efficient: first in MTF/G (9), YPC (6.27), and FPOE/G (5.3).
Walker has been the team’s MVP this year, and his path to success against the stout Seahawks’ defense seems more likely than any part of the passing core. According to PFF’s matchup model, Walker’s rushing matchup grades as great and his receiving matchup grades as good. The Seahawks have allowed 22.8 FP/G to RBs in their last five games (12th), holding opponents to 20 EP/G (21st) but allowing 2.9 FPOE/G (6th), suggesting RBs can beat Seattle’s defense, but they don’t always get quality opportunities to score fantasy points.
If the Chiefs find themselves in a dogfight and struggle to involve their underwhelming WRs, Walker could become an extension of the passing game. He has performed well when given opportunities, but those opportunities have been limited. Seattle’s LBs are vulnerable in coverage, and the Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most recs/G to RBs over their last five games (5.0).
It is reasonable to believe Walker’s receiving involvement has been limited, at least in part, by the Chiefs spending so much time in positive game scripts. If so, a more competitive game Sunday night could unlock another dimension of Walker’s role, further increasing his fantasy value.